Missouri

The Sectionalism And Regionalism In America’s 50 States

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An interesting part of American history and contemporary America is the reality of sectionalism and regionalism in many American states.

One classic example was the case of West Virginia, a breakaway from Virginia of areas of the state that were anti slavery, occurring during the Civil War in 1863. Therefore, the site of John Brown’s Raid on Harpers Ferry in 1859, which had been part of Virginia, became probably the most famous site in the new state of West Virginia, and remains a fascinating historic site today, which the author has visited.

But also, there have been desires in many states to have secessionist movements and the creation of new states.

So when observers look at the 50 states, they realize that in many of them, there are real rivalries and divisions, and a different state of mind about politics and the economy.

It is well known that upstate New York has little in common with New York City and Long Island and the counties just north of New York City.

Also, downstate Illinois is totally different in mentality than Chicago.

Central and North Florida are totally alienated from South Florida, and particularly, Miami.

Upper and Western Michigan are a different world than Detroit.

Central and Western Pennsylvania are a world apart from Philadelphia.

Central and Southern New Jersey are vastly different than Northern New Jersey, just across the George Washington Bridge from New York City.

Central and Southern Virginia are another planet from Northern Virginia, which is the Washington DC suburbs.

Central and Southern Ohio are totally different than northeastern Ohio, around Cleveland.

Central and Southern Missouri are a different world than Eastern Missouri, the area of St. Louis.

Texas and California are the best examples of sectionalism and regionalism, particularly with being the second and third largest states in area.

So Texas has the “Panhandle” centered around Lubbock; the area around Dallas and Fort Worth; the capital of Austin in the center of the state; the largest metropolitan area around Houston; and the area around San Antonio and further south to the Mexican border. It could easily be five or more states.

California has the traditional split between north and south, between San Francisco and Los Angeles. But now it is recognized that California also has a gap between East and West, between the coastal areas and the interior areas, with the interior being very different economically, and very much conservative and Republican, as compared to the rest of the state. There has even been a movement to separate interior areas in the south from the rest of the state, creating a 51st state, but the chances of its success are seen as highly unlikely.

The point is that there tends to be stereotyping of our 50 states, labeling them as having a particular economic and political structure, but the reality is much more complicated, and could, some day, lead to the breaking up of a few states, creating a few new additions to the Union!

Obama Strategies To Win Reelection In 2012: Alternative Routes To Victory

Ronald 1 Comment

Barack Obama seems extremely likely to win the entire Northeast from Maine to Maryland and Washington, DC in 2012, with possibly New Hampshire and Pennsylvania as exceptions. So that would be 112 electoral votes, or without Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, 88 electoral votes.

He is expected also to win the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon and Washington as well, which would mean 74 electoral votes.

In the Midwest, Illinois is a certainty, and the upper Midwest seems strongly Democratic too, including Michigan, WIsconsin, and Minnesota, which means these four states are together a total of 56 electoral votes.

So far, that adds up to 218 electoral votes, without New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and with them, it is 242, 28 short of the number needed, 270 electoral votes, to win the Presidency.

So what is needed to guarantee an Obama victory?

1, The state of Florida with 29 electoral votes would put Obama over the top with all of the above states, and add Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, all with growing Hispanic and Latino populations, and supportive of Obama the last time, and you get 26 electoral votes, to replace a possible loss of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

2. Another scenario is to win Ohio and Missouri, the two states most representative of the winning Presidential candidates, with Ohio being with the GOP nominee every time he has won in US History, and Missouri wrong only twice on the Presidential winner since 1900–1956 and 2008–with their combined 28 replacing Florida or Iowa and the three Southwestern states.

3. Another strategy is to try to win in Georgia and Arizona, along with Missouri, three states won by John McCain in 2008, but all susceptible to moving to Obama with growing Hispanic and Latino populations. This way one gains 37 electoral votes, replacing either Florida OR Iowa and the three Southwestern states.

4. Also, if Obama wins Virginia and North Carolina, he wins 28 electoral votes and does not need Florida, OR Ohio and Missouri, OR Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado!

The point is that Obama has many scenarios to win, and it is very hard to imagine that all of the above combinations of states will go to a Republican party as right wing and divided as it now is, demonstrated even more by the debacle over the middle class tax cut continuation, leading to a split between Republicans in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

So Obama supporters need to work hard, but the future looks bright!

Four “McCain” States Which Could Be Won By Barack Obama In 2012

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A lot of attention is being given to the idea that President Barack Obama could lose some of the “swing states” that he won in the Presidential Election of 2008–including Virginia, North Carolina and Florida in the South; New Hampshire and Pennsylvania in the Northeast; Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota in the Midwest; and Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada in the Mountain West.

While it is true that he could lose some of these states, what is less recognized and talked about is the potential for Barack Obama to win FOUR states which went to John McCain–Georgia with 16 electoral votes, Missouri with 10 electoral votes, Arizona with 11 electoral votes, and Texas with 38 electoral votes–therefore a possible total of 75 electoral votes!

This is not saying Obama is certain to win any of the four states listed above, but it is POSSIBLE, primarily because of the growing Hispanic and Latino population in Georgia, Arizona and Texas, and because Missouri was lost by only about 4,000 votes! Missouri is the state which has always gone with the winner in Presidential elections since 1900, with only two exceptions–1956 when Adlai Stevenson defeated President Eisenhower by about 4,000 votes, and then in 2008 when Senator John McCain also won by about 4,000 votes over President Obama!

The odds would seem better in Missouri first and Georgia second, much less likely in Arizona, and a long shot in Texas. Certainly, in theory, these states are much more likely to go Democratic in future years, as the Republicans are losing the future with their anti immigrant philosophy and rhetoric.

So the Presidential Election of 2012 has not only FOURTEEN states as “swing states”, but also possibly another FOUR, making it a total of EIGHTEEN states which will be the focus of most of the political campaigning and advertising over the next eleven months!

Mitt Romney, His Auto Bailout Opposition, And The Midwest In The 2012 Election

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Mitt Romney, when all is said and done, is likely to be the Republican Presidential nominee, but he will have a great deal of trouble winning the “swing states” in the Midwest and even in Pennsylvania, because of his strong stand against the auto industry bailout pursued by President Barack Obama in 2009.

Romney, whose father was an auto executive and Governor of Michigan in the 1960s, strongly opposed any bailout and called for bankruptcy in very clear cut terms.

This will come back to haunt him in the campaign, and tonight, at the CNBC debate in Michigan, the state in which he was born, Romney will be confronted with the issue of the auto industry revival, with more than 1.4 million jobs saved, not only in Michigan, but also in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota, all “swing states” which are appreciative that Obama did not give up on the industry.

It was not only the auto industry itself, but satellite industries that supply parts and service for the auto industry, that won out by Obama coming to their aid.

The auto companies are paying back the loans, and the American economy, as bad as it is, would be far worse off if Barack Obama had not had the courage to do what he did.

Mitt Romney’s stand, which he cannot revoke, unlike other issues that he flip flops on regularly, will ultimately defeat him in the Presidential Election of 2012!

Three “Red” States In Play For 2012 Presidential Election

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With one year to go to the Presidential Election Of 2012, discussion about the Electoral College has begun.

The question has been whether Barack Obama can hold on to most of the “swing states” which he won in 2008.

But at the same time, there are actually three “red’ states of 2008 that Obama has a possibility of winning–Missouri, Georgia, and Arizona–with a total of 37 electoral votes.

Missouri (10 electoral votes) was won by John McCain by less than 4,000 votes in 2008, and it took a few days to declare McCain the winner because of the very close vote. Missouri is also the ultimate “swing state”, as it ALWAYS has gone to the winner of the Presidency since 1900, except TWICE–going to Adlai Stevenson over Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956 and to McCain over Obama in 2008.

Georgia (16 electoral votes) went to McCain in 2008 by 196,000 votes, a margin of a little over 5 percent of the vote, but now the growing Hispanic population could be enough to give the state to Obama.

Arizona (11 electoral votes), the home of McCain, went to the senator in 2008 also by a margin of 196,000 votes, a margin of about 8.5 percent, but with the rapidly growing Hispanic population there also, and McCain not on the ballot as a “favorite son”, the possibility exists that Obama could win that state.

So if Obama were to win one or more of the three states mentioned, he could afford to lose some of the “swing states” that he won in 2008.

Presidential Debate Dates Announced For Colorado, Kentucky, New York And Florida

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The Commission on Presidential Debates has announced the dates and locations for the Presidential debates of 2012.

The first debate will be at the University of Denver in Colorado, on Wednesday, October 3, just about five weeks before the election.

On Thursday, October 11, the Vice Presidential debate will take place at Centre College In Danville, Kentucky, where an earlier debate was held.

Then on Tuesday, October 16, a second Presidential debate will be held at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, also a previous debate location.

Finally, on Monday, October 22, the final debate will be held at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida, just fifteen days before the election.

The fact that two of the debates are in “swing states”, the first and the last, is noteworthy, based on the concept of “first impressions” and “last licks or opportunity”!

A planned backup site, in case for some reason one of the debates cannot for some reason be held, is Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, the ultimate “swing” state, which was won by John McCain over Barack Obama by just a few thousand votes, with it taking many days before McCain could be declared the winner in that state.

One should point out that since 1900, only TWICE has the winner of the Presidency lost Missouri, and both times just by a few thousand votes–Dwight D. Eisenhower losing to Adlai Stevenson in 1956, and Barack Obama losing to John McCain in 2008!

The only candidates to be allowed in the debates will be those who have 15 percent support in the polls, with Ross Perot in 1992 being the only third party candidate to have the opportunity to debate the Republican and Democratic nominees. It is highly unlikely that any third party movement will have any chance to reach that threshold!

The Debt Ceiling Issue: A “Waterloo” For Both Republicans And Democrats In Office?

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The Debt Ceiling Crisis is rapidly becoming a potential “Waterloo” for both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party.

For the Republicans, their split on strategy, and the possibility that the Mitch McConnell plan to drop the issue of spending for now and give the President veto power three times in the next 18 months to avoid default , but allow the raising of the national debt, has bitterly divided the party, with the Tea Party people up in arms against the Establishment Republicans represented by McConnell and House Speaker John Boehner.

On the other hand, if the McConnell plan ends up as the temporary solution to the crisis, it will force Democrats to vote THREE times on raising the national debt, and that will be used by Republicans against Democrats in the congressional campaigns of 2012, and is seen as likely to cause the defeat of many Democrats, something that Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri, a traditional moderate swing state, was screaming about to high heaven to reporters!

The whole issue could neutralize the political combat, but what would seem likely is that INCUMBENTS of both parties could suffer in the upcoming election, while Barack Obama could benefit in a major way!

So it could seem to many that the President might be in good shape, but with his party possibly lying in tatters, alongside fellow Republican officeholders.

We could end up with a more rebellious Congress of critics of the handling of the whole issue, and make compromise between President Obama or even a President Romney having a literal nightmare dealing with the legislative branch! And we could end up with only a few votes margin in both Houses, making progress on ANYTHING extremely difficult!

House Republicans Hold Back On Disaster Relief And Emergency Preparedness, Insist On Budget Cuts

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The House Republican leadership. led by Eric Cantor, Majority Leader, is insisting that there be budget cuts to match any increase in spending on disaster relief and emergency preparedness.

This outrage is being perpetrated as the Midwest and the South face the most daunting natural disasters we have ever seen in just the past few months!

The onslaught of hundreds of tornadoes in the past two months, including the most disastrous in Alabama and Missouri, along with the flood crisis faced along the Mississippi River all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico, is a national emergency of massive proportions!

When a natural disaster occurs, reaction by first responders, police, firefighters, and paramedics should be unlimited without any consideration of budget costs!

If government cannot provide aid to the needy and the desperate in a time of trauma, then what good is government at all? It is NOT the job of government solely to defend the nation from outside attack and internal man made threats to our national security. It is ALSO to come to the aid of the needy, the poor, and the disadvantaged when a natural disaster occurs, without forcing budget cuts to match the disaster’s costs!

The truth is that there is no way around the fact that tax INCREASES will be necessary, whether the American people want them or not. It is government’s job to do what is “necessary and proper”, for the “common defense and general welfare”, Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution, the “elastic clause”!

The Republican Party is showing its true colors in so many ways, but particularly in “blackmailing” the Democrats to force cuts in the midst of a national emergency! How despicable and disgraceful!

The Die Is Cast: The Midwest And The Presidential Election Of 2012

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With the struggle going on over public service workers in Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan, as well as other states, it is clear that the future of organized labor is at stake, but also the future of the Democratic Party and President Barack Obama.

With the reality that organized labor is a large part of the base of the Democratic Party, it is clear that the battleground for victory for the party and its President will be the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa–the heartland of the country.

Also realize that the Republican Party had its birth in the Midwest, and that Barack Obama won all seven states, and nearly won next door Missouri.

To win in 2012, Obama MUST win most, if not all, of these Midwestern states, hit hard by the Great Recession and now led by Republican Governors determined to strike vengeance against the base of the opposition party, organized labor.

And with growing interest in former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, as the one GOP candidate for President who has few negatives, other than not being well known, it could be that President Obama will face a strong conservative opponent in Pawlenty.

The Ultimate Battleground For The 2012 Presidential Election: The Midwest!

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As a result of the Midterm Elections of 2010, it is becoming clear that the 2012 Presidential Election will be ultimately decided in the Midwest, an area of the country suffering more heavily from the Great Recession, and also an area that is losing a significant number of seats in the House of Representatives reapportionment that will take place, as a result of the Census of 2010!

Even though the Midwest is losing electoral votes because of a smaller relative population as compared to the growing Sun Belt, it still contains states that are among the top ten states in population plus others that are in the next ten states in population!

It is also an area that can presently be described as “purple”, rather than “blue” or “red”, but has moved in the direction of the Republican party in the midterm elections due to the economic hard times and the tendency to blame the party in the White House for the poor economic conditions!

With all of the key Midwestern states electing Republican governors except for Illinois, and many state legislatures and House seats going over to the GOP, it poses a massive problem for the Democrats and President Barack Obama as they look at the electoral scene for 2012!

However, two of those states historically are particularly crucial in a Presidential election–Ohio and Missouri!

Ohio has been the decisive state for the Republican Party, as every Republican President since the first one, Abraham Lincoln, to the last one, George W. Bush, has won Ohio! At the same time, it means that if Ohio goes to the Democrats, as say Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008, the chances of Gerald Ford and John McCain were therefore dashed!

Missouri, if anything, has been the true bellwether state, as every single time since 1900, except 1956 and 2008, the winner of Missouri has become President! And even Dwight D. Eisenhower came close to defeating Adlai Stevenson in Missouri in 1956, and Barack Obama came extremely close to defeating John McCain in Missouri in 2008!

Since the Atlantic Coast of the nation–New England and the Middle Atlantic–is seen as solidly Democratic except maybe for New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and the Pacific Coast also seen as solidly Democratic, while most of the South, maybe all of it including Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, are seen as solidly Republican next time, and much of the Mountain West and Great Plains also solidly “red”, it will be the Midwest which will decide the electoral winner again next time!

So the Democrats and Barack Obama will have to make inordinate efforts to appeal for support in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and cannot afford to lose much of this area if the party and Obama are to win in 2012!

That is one of the reasons why the Democratic Party is planning its national convention in the Midwest in 2012, with St. Louis, Cleveland, and Minneapolis as the key competitors for that honor!

So despite declining population percentages, the heartland of the nation again will be the central focus in the upcoming national elections in 2012!