Joe Biden Further Ahead In Polls For Early June Than Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, And John Kerry Were In Last Four Election Cycles

We have all learned from history that public opinion polls are not always accurate, but it is impressive, at least for now, that Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in all public opinion polls in early June, further ahead of Donald Trump than Hillary Clinton in 2016, Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008, and John Kerry in 2004 against their opponents.

It is clearly not a reason for those who support Joe Biden to become cocky, and even lazy about campaigning for him, and for encouraging others to vote in November.

But considering the first five months of 2020, with the impeachment trial; the CoronaVirust Pandemic; the collapse of the economy to depression levels; and the Trump decision to fire tear gas, pepper spray, and have two helicopters threaten peaceful demonstrators in Washington, DC, who were protesting the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis, one has to believe that the polls likely are accurate against Donald Trump.

Donald Trump Unleashes Rubber Bullets And Tear Gas On Legal Protesters: When Will Elected Republicans Speak Up?

Donald Trump is an authoritarian Fascist, and it showed through last night when he ordered the unleashing of rubber bullets and tear gas on legal protesters, so he could walk to a church and hold a Bible. He was trying to show how “religious” and “tough” he is, after threatening, illegally, that he would send military forces into the states, against the wishes of their governors, to quell the demonstrations related to the George Floyd murder in Minneapolis.

And in the midst of this outrage, not one Republican Senator or Governor, other than Lisa Murkowski to some extent, has spoken up in denunciation of Trump’s dictatorial bent.

The party has lost all credibility, and yet, at the same time, conservatives who are not in the government, have come out against Trump in large numbers, including most recently those in the Lincoln Project headed by George Conway, husband of Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway!

Hopefully, most of the elected Republicans who are coming up for election this fall will be retired by voters!

Right Wing Extremists Taking Advantage And Provoking Violence In Protests About George Floyd Murder Nationally

The last few days have seen mostly right wing extremists taking advantage and provoking violence in otherwise justifiable protests against the George Floyd Murder by police in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

And Donald Trump is trying to claim falsely that it is extremist left wing groups, the so called Antifa group, which is responsible for the violence against journalists and the destruction of property.

Donald Trump is trying to exploit the situation, and his Attorney General, William Barr, is an eager collaborator.

It is essential that the leadership of the nation change in November, or else, we are moving toward a civil war, with all of the firearms out there, as many as the population of the country!

Other Than Hillary Clinton, What Woman Could Be A Viable Presidential Nominee In 2016?

Hillary Clinton is considered highly likely to be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2016, and most think she will, ultimately, decide to run, although there are those who have doubts.

But if Hillary chose not to run, is there any other woman who could be seen as a viable candidate for the White House in 2016?

On the Republican side, really no one is ready and able to mount a serious race, as members of the House of Representatives have never been the nominee of a major political party, other than President James A. Garfield in 1880, and he was, tragically, assassinated in 1881, after serving only a few months in the Presidency.

Yes, there are a few Republicans women governors, but to believe that South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley or New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez or Kansas Governor Mary Fallin can be considered serious Presidential candidates is to be delusional.

As far as women Senators in the Republican Party, there are the highly qualified Susan Collins of Maine, and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, but neither seems interested or, really viable, as a Presidential nominee. New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte might be interested, but is not seen by many as a heavyweight in the party apparatus, but rather a person who hangs around Arizona Senator John McCain and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham more than is wise to do.

Of course, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is loved by the Tea Party Movement, but it is laughable to imagine her running, and she has absolutely no chance to win the nomination.

Condoleezza Rice is well qualified, but the former National Security Adviser and Secretary of State under George W. Bush, has always turned down any pressure to run for high office!

So, realistically, if there is to be a woman President, and other than Hillary Clinton, it will have to be a Democrat–and realistically it would be a Senator–one of three, including Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, or Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar.

Warren would be popular with the leftist base in the Democratic Party, but has been in the Senate only one year, and would be 67 in 2016, just two years younger than Hillary Clinton. She inspires many people, including this author, and would fight Wall Street, which few others would.

Gillibrand has been in the Senate since 2010, and is very active and inspiring, but she comes from a state where Hillary Clinton and Andrew Cuomo compete for support, and it is hard to imagine her at age 50 in 2016, being able to mount a campaign for President in 2016. She has made the fight against sexual abuse in the military a major issue, which has been under the radar for much too long.

So that leaves Klobuchar, who has served in the Senate since 2007, and is regarded very highly for her state government experience as Hennepin County (Minneapolis) Attorney for eight years, and can appeal to the heartland of the nation in a way that neither Warren nor Gillibrand could do. Her personality and communication ability is just as good, if not better, than Warren or Gillbrand, and at age 56 in 2016, she is closer to the ideal age to run for President. She is someone with a great progressive record, who has been too often overlooked by news media and others who follow politics.

But one thing is clear: No one is as qualified or outstanding among women politicians as Hillary Rodham Clinton! She has her faults and shortcomings, but no one matches her credentials!

Today Is The 100th Anniversary of The Birth Of Hubert H. Humphrey, America’s Liberal Political Icon!

Today is the 100th Anniversary of the birth of Hubert H. Humphrey–Strongest supporter of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal, Co Founder of the Democratic Farmer Labor Party of Minnesota, Mayor of Minneapolis, Promoter of the Civil Rights Movement, Co Founder of the Americans For Democratic Action political organization, Senator from Minnesota, Presidential candidate in 1960, Vice President under Lyndon B. Johnson, Presidential nominee in 1968, Senator from Minnesota again, advocate of many government programs including Medicare, education, Peace Corps, and over 300 other laws–and a man who was the political hero and icon of the author as a young man, and helped to shape the author’s views and ideas on politics and government!

Humphrey inspired many people with his infectious enthusiasm for government activism and decency, but lost a lot of support when he supported Lyndon Johnson on Vietnam policy during his term as Vice President, believing loyalty was essential, despite private doubts about the policy being pursued in Vietnam.

Because of that war, Humphrey led a divided party in 1968, and could not continue the Great Society programs of Johnson, and he was called all kinds of terrible epithets, rather than the long held name he loved, the “Happy Warrior”!

When Humphrey died in 1978, the author wept, and wondered why this wonderful man had been taken from us at the young age of 66 by cancer, while Ronald Reagan, born the same year, would go on to become President and promote programs that in many ways are the center of the troubles we have today in our economy and foreign policy. Not that the author ever wished harm on Reagan, but he has always wondered why Humphrey had to be taken from us at such an early age, instead of contributing to the political debate of the future!

So on this centennial anniversary of the birth of this giant figure in American history, let us honor his memory and dedicate ourselves to the revival of his vision and insights!

The Choice Of Charlotte, North Carolina As Host Of The 2012 Democratic National Convention

The announcement this week that the Democratic National Convention of 2012 will be held in Charlotte, North Carolina, may have surprised some observers, including this blogger, who really thought that St. Louis, Missouri would be chosen from among others including Columbus, Ohio, and Minneapolis, Minnesota.

After having been correct on the choice of Tampa, Florida by the Republican Party for its 2012 convention, the author was somewhat disappointed that his prediction failed to come to fruition!

It is clear that President Barack Obama made the final choice, and it shows that he intends to make a fight to keep the Southern states that he won in 2008–North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, none of which will be easy to accomplish.

In the mind of the author, keeping the Midwest–Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota–will be more urgent, as the “heartland” of the nation seems the even more significant battleground!

While Obama did not win Missouri in 2008, John McCain only won by a few thousand votes, and that was only the second time since 1900 (the other time being 1956) that the loser of Missouri won the White House. So it is crucial that Missouri be won by Obama if he is to win a second term, the reasoning that made the author think he would choose St. Louis.

However, Charlotte is part of the emerging modern South, and North Carolina, along with Virginia and Florida, will also be crucial in the 2012 election campaign.

Hopefully, the President’s decision to choose the South over the Midwest for the national convention will play out in a resulting win for him in 2012!

The Battle Over The Democratic National Convention Site For 2012

Very soon, there will be an announcement as to where the Democratic National Convention will be held in September 2012.

The author has written about this earlier, and correctly predicted that the Republican National Convention would be held in late August 2012 in Tampa, Florida.

As stated earlier, the author predicts the convention will be held in St. Louis, Missouri, winning over the cities of Minneapolis, Minnesota; Cleveland, Ohio; and Charlotte, North Carolina.

St. Louis has hosted the Democratic National Convention before, with Woodrow Wilson nominated for his second term in that Mississippi River city in 1916.

St. Louis has the Gateway Arch, an iconic symbol of the nation, and is the major city in a state that is a very clear predictor of the presidential election results, as since 1900, only twice–1956 and 2008–did the Presidential winner lose Missouri. And in both losing cases, Adlai Stevenson and John McCain just barely defeated Dwight D. Eisenhower and Barack Obama.

Missouri will be difficult to win for the Democrats, but it is a crucial state, and holding the convention there would be a boost to the chances of winning the state.

However, having said that, the records show that the Presidential nominee of the Democratic Party has won the state in which the national convention was held a total of 23 times, and lost it 22 times!

So there is obviously no guarantee of what will happen in the Presidential election, whether the convention is held in Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, or Minnesota. All three of the other states were won by the Democrats in 2008, but all three, along with Missouri, are in play for 2012 at this stage of the campaign, nearly two years out.

Still, it seems to the author that Missouri and St. Louis are the most likely choice, and it will be interesting to see if he is correct on the Democratic convention location, as he was on the Republican convention location. 🙂

The Ultimate Battleground For The 2012 Presidential Election: The Midwest!

As a result of the Midterm Elections of 2010, it is becoming clear that the 2012 Presidential Election will be ultimately decided in the Midwest, an area of the country suffering more heavily from the Great Recession, and also an area that is losing a significant number of seats in the House of Representatives reapportionment that will take place, as a result of the Census of 2010!

Even though the Midwest is losing electoral votes because of a smaller relative population as compared to the growing Sun Belt, it still contains states that are among the top ten states in population plus others that are in the next ten states in population!

It is also an area that can presently be described as “purple”, rather than “blue” or “red”, but has moved in the direction of the Republican party in the midterm elections due to the economic hard times and the tendency to blame the party in the White House for the poor economic conditions!

With all of the key Midwestern states electing Republican governors except for Illinois, and many state legislatures and House seats going over to the GOP, it poses a massive problem for the Democrats and President Barack Obama as they look at the electoral scene for 2012!

However, two of those states historically are particularly crucial in a Presidential election–Ohio and Missouri!

Ohio has been the decisive state for the Republican Party, as every Republican President since the first one, Abraham Lincoln, to the last one, George W. Bush, has won Ohio! At the same time, it means that if Ohio goes to the Democrats, as say Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008, the chances of Gerald Ford and John McCain were therefore dashed!

Missouri, if anything, has been the true bellwether state, as every single time since 1900, except 1956 and 2008, the winner of Missouri has become President! And even Dwight D. Eisenhower came close to defeating Adlai Stevenson in Missouri in 1956, and Barack Obama came extremely close to defeating John McCain in Missouri in 2008!

Since the Atlantic Coast of the nation–New England and the Middle Atlantic–is seen as solidly Democratic except maybe for New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and the Pacific Coast also seen as solidly Democratic, while most of the South, maybe all of it including Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, are seen as solidly Republican next time, and much of the Mountain West and Great Plains also solidly “red”, it will be the Midwest which will decide the electoral winner again next time!

So the Democrats and Barack Obama will have to make inordinate efforts to appeal for support in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and cannot afford to lose much of this area if the party and Obama are to win in 2012!

That is one of the reasons why the Democratic Party is planning its national convention in the Midwest in 2012, with St. Louis, Cleveland, and Minneapolis as the key competitors for that honor!

So despite declining population percentages, the heartland of the nation again will be the central focus in the upcoming national elections in 2012!

Four Finalists For Democratic National Convention In September 2012!

The Democratic National Chairman, former Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, has just announced the four finalists to host the Democratic National Convention, beginning September 3, 2012!

They are: Charlotte, North Carolina; Cleveland, Ohio; Minneapolis, Minnesota; and St. Louis, Missouri!

Notice that three of the four are in the battleground Mid West, and North Carolina is another battleground!

But also note that North Carolina, Ohio and Minnesota all ultimately went to Barack Obama in 2008, although all three will remain tough races for the 2012 Presidential election!

Missouri went to John McCain by just a few thousand votes, but in so doing, it was only the second time since 1900 that the “Show Me” state failed to go to the winner of the Presidency!

The only other time was 1956, when Adlai Stevenson somehow won the state over President Dwight D. Eisenhower, running for reelection!

It seems to the author that, therefore, the best case can be made for St. Louis, the home of the Gateway Arch, and a city sitting on the Mississippi River, marking the symbolic center of the country!

It is a state that Obama needs to win, and it obviously is a bellwether state more than any other!

Just as Tampa, Florida, made the most sense for the Republican Party for their 2012 convention–a state which went to the other party but is essential for victory–so does St. Louis, Missouri make the most sense for the Democratic Party!

The author months ago made a prediction that Tampa would be the GOP choice, so he is going out on a limb and predicting that St. Louis will be the Democratic selection!

Now let’s just wait and see if I can bat one thousand on selections of national conventions! 🙂