Joe Biden Further Ahead In Polls For Early June Than Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, And John Kerry Were In Last Four Election Cycles

We have all learned from history that public opinion polls are not always accurate, but it is impressive, at least for now, that Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in all public opinion polls in early June, further ahead of Donald Trump than Hillary Clinton in 2016, Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008, and John Kerry in 2004 against their opponents.

It is clearly not a reason for those who support Joe Biden to become cocky, and even lazy about campaigning for him, and for encouraging others to vote in November.

But considering the first five months of 2020, with the impeachment trial; the CoronaVirust Pandemic; the collapse of the economy to depression levels; and the Trump decision to fire tear gas, pepper spray, and have two helicopters threaten peaceful demonstrators in Washington, DC, who were protesting the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis, one has to believe that the polls likely are accurate against Donald Trump.

4 comments on “Joe Biden Further Ahead In Polls For Early June Than Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, And John Kerry Were In Last Four Election Cycles

  1. Jeffrey G Moebus June 8, 2020 9:10 pm

    Does one “have to believe” that, Professor, about today’s polls because they say anything at all about what might happen in November [assuming there is a November]?

    Or is it because they say what You would like to think You can still hope what might actually happen in five months?

    And given what happened to Clinton and Kerry with all their front-runner polls, why should anyone take comfort in how Biden’s doing today?

  2. Rustbelt Democrat June 9, 2020 8:13 am

    Some more good news! I heard on the news last night that Rump’s approval rating has dropped from 45% to 38%.

  3. Princess Leia June 9, 2020 8:17 am

    With Trump’s very poor handling of the virus and the issue of police brutality, I believe the polls are accurate.

  4. D June 10, 2020 6:55 am

    My response to Ronald’s blog topic “Six Months to the Presidential Election of 2020: A First Assessment” (April 30, 2020 @ has not changed.

    At this point, I am anticipating the 2020 Democrats win a pickup of the presidency with a U.S. Popular Vote by no less than +7 percentage points (say, 52 to 45 percent) with carriage of 29 states (a pickup of +9 states, with two congressional districts, which would extend to Texas delivering the 395th electoral vote).

    This would also yield a majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate of a net gain of +7 or +8 seats (lose Alabama; counter-flip Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, tipping-point reached with both seats in Georgia, as well as Iowa and potentially Montana).

    This would be with the unseating of a Republican incumbent U.S. president.

    This is keeping in mind this is effective June 10, 2020. It is just a sense of what I am getting from this.

    Fox News released a poll, last week, saying Joe Biden has taken a lead in Ohio, over Donald Trump, that is +2. (Trump’s 2016 Republican pickup of the state was a margin of +8.07. This was the only 2016 Republican presidential pickup which did not deliver any 2018 midterm Democratic pickups for U.S. House or U.S. Governors. It is a bellwether state possibly in decline. It was Barack Obama’s No. 25 best state in both 2008 and 2012. It was the party’s No. 28 best state in 2016. It may go down to No. 30. Stay tuned.)

    “Real Clear Politics” has the Democrats leading the “2020 Generic Congressional Vote”—this is for the U.S. House—by a margin of +7.8. My comments, from that April 30 blog topic of Ronald’s, touched on why this is important.

    In the following 13-minute video, published to YouTube on June 8, 2020, there was an interesting discussion on the polls between “The Hill’s” “Rising” co-hosts Krystal Ball and Saager Enjeti.

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