Reapportionment

Two Likelihoods Of 2012 Presidential Election Results

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When the Presidential Election of 2012 goes into the record books, two points will be noted that will be unique.

First, it now seems likely that Barack Obama will win re-election, and if that occurs, he will likely win with fewer electoral votes, even if he wins all of the states he won in 2008, since eight of those states lost electoral votes due to reapportionment, including New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, and Iowa, a total loss of 10 electoral votes, with only Washington State, Nevada, and Florida gaining together 4 more electoral votes.

So IF Obama won every state he won in 2008, he would have 359 electoral votes, instead of 365, if he won one electoral vote in Nebraska, as last time, and if not, it would be a total of 358 electoral votes.

The fact that Obama would win re-election with fewer electoral votes would be the second time in history of such an event, with only Woodrow Wilson winning fewer electoral votes in 1916 than in 1912.

The other likelihood is that President Obama will have an opposition that raises more money than his campaign, the first time such an event has ever occurred, as the Republicans SuperPACS will likely raise a billion dollars or more, even higher than Obama hopes to gain in campaign funds, primarily from smaller contributors.

So 2012 will see two likelihoods that will set records, adding to the trivia of history!

Congress Approval At All Time Low: What It Means

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A new poll shows that only TEN percent of those polled have a positive view of Congress in 2012.

The Gallup Poll showed the unbelievable reality that Congress has a lower rating than BP during the Oil Spill, or Richard Nixon during Watergate, or banks during the banking crisis of 2008.

This could mean, in theory, that we could witness a wholesale removal of members of both parties in Congress in November, but that is really highly unlikely.

The fact that many Americans are unhappy with Congress as an institution does not mean that they do not like THEIR member of Congress, and most members routinely get re-elected, particularly in the House of Representatives, with a higher chance of defeat in the Senate races.

Also, reapportionment of seats, which occurs once in a decade, will probably promote less turnover since boundary lines change. And since a substantial number of members of Congress are retiring, some of them are leaving because they see the handwriting on the wall, as the saying goes!

More than incumbents losing who do not retire, is the question of whether the Republicans can retain control of the House of Representatives, and whether the Democrats can continue to control the Senate.

What seems most likely at this juncture is that we may see a switch in party control in both chambers, as the Democrats only need a 25 seat gain to take control, and there is great discontent with the Tea Party Movement membership in the GOP, which has made life miserable for Speaker of the House John Boehner and his party.

And the likelihood is that the US Senate will see a Republican takeover, needing only four seats to accomplish that.

This will present a new scenario for President Barack Obama if he is re-elected, but it is a more normal situation to have a Democratic House and a Republican Senate historically, having occurred from 1911-1913, 1931-1933. and from 1981-1987. The present opposite party control in the two chambers–a Republican House and a Democratic Senate–has NEVER happened, and seems to have proved to be less able to accomplish ANY cooperation as a result!

The Loss Of The Anthony Weiner Congressional Seat In New York: Its Meaning

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The 9th Congressional District in Queens and Brooklyn, New York, was represented in the past decade by an aggressive, outspoken Democrat named Anthony Weiner, who was noticeable for his fighting spirit against conservatives, the Tea Party Movement, and the Republican Party. He made a lot of news with his confrontations on the floor of the House of Representatives in the past few years.

But Anthony Weiner also had a fatal flaw, not unique to him among politicians, and that was his private sexual drives, which led to him putting text and pictures of his naked body on Facebook and Twitter, erupting in a scandal which forced him to resign in June of this year.

Now, as a result of his antics and stupidity, a district which was Democratic controlled since 1923, has gone to the Republican nominee, and it is being interpreted in different ways.

Let the author point out that this district was the one in which he resided for 15 years before his move to Florida in 1989, and he lived specifically in the community known as Fresh Meadows in the Flushing area of Queens County.

The thought that MY district is now represented by a Republican is hard enough to take, but the issue is its meaning!

Some would say it is an aberration, and a reaction against Anthony Weiner himself, as a similar situation with an upstate New York district, traditionally Republican for a very long time, went to the Democrat a few months ago after a similar sex scandal.

It should also be pointed out that this district will disappear due to the mandated change in district lines for all members of the House of Representatives after reapportionment of seats with census results now in, and therefore, the whole district will be divided among others, with New York losing two seats in the House of Representatives. So the new Republican, as much as if the Democratic candidate had won, is unlikely to be able to stay in Congress more than one year. In fact, since Weiner was personally not well liked in the New York delegation, he probably would have been thrown into a primary against a fellow Democrat in a newly established district, with a good chance of being defeated, without the scandal which unseated him!

Having said all that, some see the defeat as a repudiation of Barack Obama on the economy.

Others see it as a repudiation of the stand on Israel and the Palestinians that Obama and his administration have promoted, seen at least by Orthodox and Hasidic Jews, a large portion of the Jewish population of that district, as anti Israel.

Still others see it as a repudiation of the Democratic nominee, who while Jewish, supported gay marriage in the state legislature, something that Orhodox and Hasidic Jews loathe with passion!

Does this mean that the general Jewish population is ready to abandon Barack Obama and the Democrats nationally?

The answer is who knows, but while it seems highly doubtful that large numbers of Jews will vote Republican, it is certainly a warning to Obama and the Democrats to work hard to convince Jews that Obama is NOT working against Israel’s interests, that they will fight for more jobs, and at the same time, NOT back off on gay marriage and gay rights!

Orthodox and Hasidic Jews have the right to be against gay marriage, as much as many Catholics and evangelical Christians, but that does not mean that their personal prejudices should deny equality in all ways to gay and lesbian Americans! This needs to be seen as a civil rights issue!

Since the percentage of Jews who are Orthodox or Hasidic is small, and since most Jews believe in the New Deal and Great Society programs that continue to be defended by Barack Obama and his party, this election, most likely, is simply an aberration!

The Anthony Weiner Disaster: No Solution Is Good!

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New York Congressman Anthony Weiner, admired by many for his willingness to fight for his principles, and hated by Republicans because of his strong attacks on their party and its policies, has put himself in an impossible position by his involvement in “sexting” on Twitter, Facebook, and on email.

For a member of Congress to be involved in a sex scandal is nothing new, unfortunately, but his lies and deceit for a week make his finally “coming clean” much more problematical. It is sad how a talented politician can be so self destructive, and can risk his career, and his new marriage, all because he has no self control over his sexual urges.

Should Weiner resign? Some would say yes, and others would say no, but some politicians have stuck it out, and have survived, such as Senator David Vitter of Louisiana, and President Bill Clinton. Of course, many more have quit under the pressure, and the intensity of the attacks, and a planned investigation by the House Ethics Committee, and the lack of public support by his Democratic colleagues are telling signs of his likely failure to be able to stay in office and leave it to the citizens of his congressional district to decide his fate.

In fact, his seat is likely to be disappearing during reapportionment of seats in the House of Representatives, with the fact that two congressional districts will be eliminated for the state of New York in any case.

So, sadly, Weiner, who once hoped to run for NYC Mayor, is probably doomed and likely to be forced out soon. Public scrutiny of public figures makes one realize that if he or she cannot keep his behavior within norms, then his or her humiliation and embarrassment is legion, so expect Weiner to resign under fire very soon as another victim of his own shortcomings!

Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich: “Carpetbagger” In Washington State?

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With reapportionment of seats about to take place in the House Of Representatives, based on the census figures, some states are gaining seats, while others are losing seats.

The Sun Belt is gaining seats, as they have done every decade since the 1950s, while the Frost Belt Northeast and Midwestern states, specifically the large ones, are losing seats.

This leads to some House members being gerrymandered into races against fellow members of the House of the same party, leaving the reality that some will be pushed out of their positions either by primary elections, or by reality setting in that they cannot compete in a primary or election in the new district and have a good chance of victory.

Such a circumstance is now faced by Cleveland Congressman Dennis Kucinich, one of the most liberal and most controversial Democrats in Congress.

Kucinich, who was Mayor of Cleveland, acquiring the name “Dennis the Menace”; member of the Cleveland City Council later; and then has been a Congressman from Cleveland for eight terms, is faced with elimination unless he chooses to move somewhere else in another state which is gaining seats.

Kucinich, a national figure because of having competed for the Presidency in 2004 and 2008, was recently in the Seattle area of Washington State, which will gain a seat, trying to measure whether it was a good fit for a Congressional race, with Seattle being a progressive stronghold.

While it is required that a member of the House of Representatives must have a residence in the district he or she represents, in the year of reapportionment, the member can move into the district AFTER he or she has been elected, as often, even for members who keep their congressional seat, the boundaries have changed because of reapportionment, so new housing arrangements must be made, but it can be AFTER being elected to the new district seat.

The question is whether it is proper for Kucinich to do what he plans to do, and the answer is yes!

Why is that? Well, Washington State does not have a residency requirement in the state for someone to run for public office, much like New York State, which has had three non residents or “Carpetbaggers” run for and win a Senate seat–Robert Kennedy in 1964, James Buckley in 1970, and Hillary Clinton in 2000.

While there is no recent case of a “Carpetbagger” Congressman, it is not illegal or a first time situation, and what it all comes down to is that this is based on democracy! What the people of that particular new Congressional district in Seattle want, they are entitled to get. If the case can be made by a native Washingtonian that he or she should be elected over a well known Congressman from Cleveland, Ohio, it will rule the day!

The word “Carpetbagger”, originating as a derogatory term in the Reconstruction South, should not be looked at in such a manner, as even most of the so called “Carpetbaggers” in the Southern states, who were Congressmen, Senators, or Governors, actually performed well in office, and the term is therefore just political propaganda to be ignored as a myth of American history!

More On Hispanic And Latino Numbers In American Population! And The Shift In African American Population!

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The Census Bureau informs us that Hispanics and Latinos have not just become one out of every six Americans, a total of 50 million in the population in 2010.

They have also become the largest minority group in 191 of the country’s 366 metropolitan areas!

Even in states such as Nebraska and Oklahoma, they have had a growing impact!

A 42 percent increase in their numbers is astounding, at the same time that many African Americans are migrating back to the South after a century of leaving the South for the North!

And the number of white Anglos have fallen in all metropolitan areas, and have seen, for instance a drop in Las Vegas from 60 percent to 48 percent!

So the political effects will be major in scope in coming years, including the reapportionment battle in many state legislatures, which will have a long range effect on the fortunes of the Republicans and the Democrats!

The Census Figures And The Republican Party: Not What It Seems!

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When the census figures came out a week ago, Republicans were rejoicing as the Sunbelt gained seats in the House of Representatives and in the Electoral College vote for President, but the true tale is that the growth of population does NOT favor the GOP long term, particularly if the Republicans do not adjust to the reality of immigration.

It is true that Texas and Florida gained four and two seats in the House of Representatives, along with one seat for Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, South Carolina, Utah and Washington State.

But much of the growth in population was Hispanic or Latino, and with the GOP promoting a hard line on immigration, and preventing passage of the DREAM Act for immigrant children, there is a likelihood that Hispanics will NOT vote Republican in these states, and as the voting population grows in these areas, the Democrats have a very good chance of gaining power in many of the Sunbelt states over the next decade.

Additionally, the demographics shows the suburbs of major cities, which used to be reliably Republican, no longer are. The astounding statistic is that John McCain, who had more of an open mind on immigration when he ran for the Presidency in 2008, managed to lose all of the suburban counties surrounding New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Detroit and Boston, as well as the majority of suburban counties surrounding St. Louis and Cleveland. Additionally, except for Orange Country, McCain lost all suburban counties in southern California, and won Orange County by the smallest margin of any Republican in modern times!

Women have been historically Democratic, and independents have moved in that direction, except in 2010, which is likely a blip on the map, not a trend. And even rich people and counties are more than ever moving toward the Democrats, and contributing more to the Democrats.

Not all rich people vote their pocketbook, but also vote on social issues, and the reality is that the number of “have nots” will always outnumber the “haves”, so for the GOP to work against the interests of the struggling middle class, as well as the poor, is counter productive in the long run.

So while the GOP might control redistricting in many significant states and have Governors of their party in control, trying to project a long term Republican advantage electorally is far from guaranteed!

The Growing Chasm Politically In Major States, And Across The Nation!

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As a result of the midterm elections of 2010, we see California becoming a state where Republicans are a dying breed, failing to win one statewide office, not gaining even one House seat, and losing any control over what the state legislature does in either house! It is hard to believe that at one point, the Republicans dominated the governorship and House and Senate seats, and that this was the state of Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon!

But at the same time, the Democrats lost a couple of House seats in Florida, no longer have any influence in the state legislature, and failed to gain one statewide office, as the Republicans swept over the Democrats in all but black and Jewish areas of the Sunshine state. It is hard to remember that this was the state that once elected Bob Graham, Rubin Askew, and Lawton Chiles!

And Georgia, once the state of Jimmy Carter and Sam Nunn saw an equivalent GOP sweep, as did Texas and Oklahoma and Kansas among others!

At the same time, New York remained a dominant stronghold for the Democrats, as also occurred in Massachusetts, Maryland, Delaware, Vermont, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii, among other states!

Finally, the Midwest saw a major GOP gain in such states as Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri and Iowa!

What this all tells us is that the nation is becoming more and more divided politically, as we see the development of two nations–the Northeast Atlantic Coast and the Pacific Coast as Democratic strongholds more than ever before, and the South and the Great Plains and much of the Mountain West more Republican, and the Midwest tending in the direction of the GOP!

The political flux is amazing, having witnessed what seemed like a permanent GOP gain in the early Bush II era, succeeded by what looked like a permanent Democratic gain under Obama, followed by what now seems like a major Republican gain that could be long lasting due to reapportionment being affected by their triumphs in the state legislative battles of 2010!

The Governorships: Predictions Of Gain In GOP Control Of More States!

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The Governorship elections nationally, in 37 states, are crucial for the future of both Democrats and Republicans, due to the 2010 census and its effect on reapportionment of state legislatures and congressional seats in the House of Representatives. Governors have the power to affect political balances for the next decade, and the news is not good for Democrats, as it is clear that the Republicans will have 30 Governorships after the election results are in!

What major states will the Democrats win?

New York–Andrew Cuomo over Carl Paladino
California–Jerry Brown over Meg Whitman
Florida–Alex Sink over Rick Scott
Maryland–Martin O’Malley over Robert Ehrlich
Minnesota–Mark Dayton over Tom Emmer
Oregon–John Kitzhaber over Chris Dudley
Colorado–John Hickenlooper over Tom Tancredo and Dan Maes
Hawaii–Neil Abercrombie over James Aiona
Massachusetts–Deval Patrick over Charlie Baker and Tim Cahill
New Hampshire–John Lynch over John Stephen
Connecticut–Dan Malloy over Tom Foley
Illinois–Pat Quinn over Bill Brady
Michigan–Virg Bernero over Rick Snyder
Arkansas–Mike Beebe over Jim Keet

Add the following states that don’t have gubernatorial elections in 2010, but have Democratic Governors:

Delaware–Jack Markell
Kentucky–Steve Beshear
Missouri–Jay Nixon
Montana–Brian Schweitzer
North Carolina–Beverly Perdue
Washington–Christine Gregoire

If Republicans have 30 Governorships as predicted, it will be four more than they have now, including the following prominent Governors:

Arizona–Jan Brewer over Terry Goddard
Ohio–John Kasich over Ted Strickland
Rhode Island-Independent Lincoln Chafee (formerly Republican) over Frank Caprio and John Robitaille
Texas–Rick Perry over Bill White
Kansas–Sam Brownback over Tom Holland
South Carolina–Nikki Haley over Vincent Sheheen
Alaska–Sean Parnell over Ethan Berkowitz
Wisconsin–Scott Walker over Tom Barrett
Pennsylvania–Tom Corbett over Dan Onorato
Iowa–Terry Brandstad over Chet Culver
Georgia–Nathan Deal over Roy Barnes

Add the following GOP Governors who do not face re-election this year:

Indiana–Mitch Daniels
Louisiana–Bobby Jindal
Mississippi–Haley Barbour
New Jersey-Chris Christie
Virginia–Bob McDonnell

These sixteen Republicans are added to by Governors in the following states:

Alabama, Idaho, Maine, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.

So if the author’s projections are correct, it will be 20 Democrats, 29 Republicans, and one Independent Republican (Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island)!

The one saving grace for the Democrats is the likelihood of Democratic Governors in three of the top four states–California, Florida and New York–a gain of two key states that have had GOP Governors, and states that have many more seats in the House of Representatives that can be affected by gubernatorial impact on reapportionment!

The Governors: Key To Reapportionment Battles For The Next Decade!

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While so much attention has been addressed to the US Senate and House races this election year, the voters’ choices of 37 Governors are crucial for the long term health, or lack of it, of the two major political parties for the next decade!

This is due to the fact that the Governors will have the major input to the approval of reapportionment plans in the states for seats in the US House of Representatives, as well as state legislative districts.

Even if the state legislature is controlled by one party, if the Governor in office in 2011 is of the opposition party, it can have a dramatic effect on how the districts are gerrymandered, and can determine fortunes politically for the next ten years!

This is particularly significant in large states such as Texas, California, Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Washington, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York, among others.

So the state governorship races require more analysis than would be often imagined, because of their effect on the national political scene!