The Governorships: Predictions Of Gain In GOP Control Of More States!

The Governorship elections nationally, in 37 states, are crucial for the future of both Democrats and Republicans, due to the 2010 census and its effect on reapportionment of state legislatures and congressional seats in the House of Representatives. Governors have the power to affect political balances for the next decade, and the news is not good for Democrats, as it is clear that the Republicans will have 30 Governorships after the election results are in!

What major states will the Democrats win?

New York–Andrew Cuomo over Carl Paladino
California–Jerry Brown over Meg Whitman
Florida–Alex Sink over Rick Scott
Maryland–Martin O’Malley over Robert Ehrlich
Minnesota–Mark Dayton over Tom Emmer
Oregon–John Kitzhaber over Chris Dudley
Colorado–John Hickenlooper over Tom Tancredo and Dan Maes
Hawaii–Neil Abercrombie over James Aiona
Massachusetts–Deval Patrick over Charlie Baker and Tim Cahill
New Hampshire–John Lynch over John Stephen
Connecticut–Dan Malloy over Tom Foley
Illinois–Pat Quinn over Bill Brady
Michigan–Virg Bernero over Rick Snyder
Arkansas–Mike Beebe over Jim Keet

Add the following states that don’t have gubernatorial elections in 2010, but have Democratic Governors:

Delaware–Jack Markell
Kentucky–Steve Beshear
Missouri–Jay Nixon
Montana–Brian Schweitzer
North Carolina–Beverly Perdue
Washington–Christine Gregoire

If Republicans have 30 Governorships as predicted, it will be four more than they have now, including the following prominent Governors:

Arizona–Jan Brewer over Terry Goddard
Ohio–John Kasich over Ted Strickland
Rhode Island-Independent Lincoln Chafee (formerly Republican) over Frank Caprio and John Robitaille
Texas–Rick Perry over Bill White
Kansas–Sam Brownback over Tom Holland
South Carolina–Nikki Haley over Vincent Sheheen
Alaska–Sean Parnell over Ethan Berkowitz
Wisconsin–Scott Walker over Tom Barrett
Pennsylvania–Tom Corbett over Dan Onorato
Iowa–Terry Brandstad over Chet Culver
Georgia–Nathan Deal over Roy Barnes

Add the following GOP Governors who do not face re-election this year:

Indiana–Mitch Daniels
Louisiana–Bobby Jindal
Mississippi–Haley Barbour
New Jersey-Chris Christie
Virginia–Bob McDonnell

These sixteen Republicans are added to by Governors in the following states:

Alabama, Idaho, Maine, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.

So if the author’s projections are correct, it will be 20 Democrats, 29 Republicans, and one Independent Republican (Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island)!

The one saving grace for the Democrats is the likelihood of Democratic Governors in three of the top four states–California, Florida and New York–a gain of two key states that have had GOP Governors, and states that have many more seats in the House of Representatives that can be affected by gubernatorial impact on reapportionment!

One comment on “The Governorships: Predictions Of Gain In GOP Control Of More States!

  1. Bob Hovic November 1, 2010 12:20 am

    Looking down your list of which states the Dems “will” win (if you said “might” it would be more realistic), I started thinking you were a bit optimistic when I saw Florida. Sink and Scott are roughly tied, with Scott very narrowly ahead right now, according to RCP. Then I thought you were even more optimistic with Illinois. Brady has been consistently ahead, though it’s close — 3.5 — Quinn could take it.

    But when I see Michigan on the list, I know you’re over the edge. C’mon — Bernero is going to get creamed. The RCP average right now is Snyder by 17.5.

    Regarding large states, of the top ten, the most likely outcome is the Dems having three (CA, NY, NC) and the Reps having the other seven (TX, FL, PA, IL, OH, MI, GA). Though certainly FL could go either way and the Dems still have some chance in IL.

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