Day: October 31, 2010

The Governorships: Predictions Of Gain In GOP Control Of More States!

The Governorship elections nationally, in 37 states, are crucial for the future of both Democrats and Republicans, due to the 2010 census and its effect on reapportionment of state legislatures and congressional seats in the House of Representatives. Governors have the power to affect political balances for the next decade, and the news is not good for Democrats, as it is clear that the Republicans will have 30 Governorships after the election results are in!

What major states will the Democrats win?

New York–Andrew Cuomo over Carl Paladino
California–Jerry Brown over Meg Whitman
Florida–Alex Sink over Rick Scott
Maryland–Martin O’Malley over Robert Ehrlich
Minnesota–Mark Dayton over Tom Emmer
Oregon–John Kitzhaber over Chris Dudley
Colorado–John Hickenlooper over Tom Tancredo and Dan Maes
Hawaii–Neil Abercrombie over James Aiona
Massachusetts–Deval Patrick over Charlie Baker and Tim Cahill
New Hampshire–John Lynch over John Stephen
Connecticut–Dan Malloy over Tom Foley
Illinois–Pat Quinn over Bill Brady
Michigan–Virg Bernero over Rick Snyder
Arkansas–Mike Beebe over Jim Keet

Add the following states that don’t have gubernatorial elections in 2010, but have Democratic Governors:

Delaware–Jack Markell
Kentucky–Steve Beshear
Missouri–Jay Nixon
Montana–Brian Schweitzer
North Carolina–Beverly Perdue
Washington–Christine Gregoire

If Republicans have 30 Governorships as predicted, it will be four more than they have now, including the following prominent Governors:

Arizona–Jan Brewer over Terry Goddard
Ohio–John Kasich over Ted Strickland
Rhode Island-Independent Lincoln Chafee (formerly Republican) over Frank Caprio and John Robitaille
Texas–Rick Perry over Bill White
Kansas–Sam Brownback over Tom Holland
South Carolina–Nikki Haley over Vincent Sheheen
Alaska–Sean Parnell over Ethan Berkowitz
Wisconsin–Scott Walker over Tom Barrett
Pennsylvania–Tom Corbett over Dan Onorato
Iowa–Terry Brandstad over Chet Culver
Georgia–Nathan Deal over Roy Barnes

Add the following GOP Governors who do not face re-election this year:

Indiana–Mitch Daniels
Louisiana–Bobby Jindal
Mississippi–Haley Barbour
New Jersey-Chris Christie
Virginia–Bob McDonnell

These sixteen Republicans are added to by Governors in the following states:

Alabama, Idaho, Maine, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.

So if the author’s projections are correct, it will be 20 Democrats, 29 Republicans, and one Independent Republican (Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island)!

The one saving grace for the Democrats is the likelihood of Democratic Governors in three of the top four states–California, Florida and New York–a gain of two key states that have had GOP Governors, and states that have many more seats in the House of Representatives that can be affected by gubernatorial impact on reapportionment!

The House Of Representatives: How Many Seats Will The Republicans Gain?

It is time to start assessing and prognosticating how the election results will play out this coming Tuesday!

It will likely take a few days to be sure of the final results in all 435 races for the House of Representatives.

As the author sees it, there is no question that the opposition party will win seats, as that is traditional in a midterm election.

The question is whether the Republicans will be able to gain a net total of 39 seats, with the expectation that the Democrats will win 4-6 Republican held seats, which effectively means that the GOP will have to gain 43-45 seats.

Predictions are between the low 30s and the very high number of 60-70 seats if there is a total collapse of the Democrats on Election Day.

The belief of the author is that, after all the votes are in, the Republicans will gain a net total of 33 seats, six short of a majority, meaning a House of Representatives with 224 Democrats and 211 Republicans!

Of course, with such a small margin, it is always possible, after the fact, that six or seven Democratic survivors who are more moderate to conservative could switch over to the Republican party, and have an effect on organization of the House in January!

So, imagine a Democratic held House by a small margin where a few Democrats votes to back a Republican Speaker of the House!

So will Nancy Pelosi be Speaker of the House in a closely divided House, or will she bow out and even possibly resign from her seat?

The prediction is that to manage to keep the small Democratic majority, she will resign and be replaced by her deputy, seen as somewhat more moderate, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland!

And should the GOP gain enough seats to win control of the House of Representatives, will John Boehner become Speaker of the House? Don’t bet on it, as one must watch the “Young Guns”, led by House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, Kevin McCarthy, and Paul Ryan, who are overly ambitious and much more aggressive, and planning for future leadership in the House. So if Boehner ends up as the Speaker, he will know he has these younger members sniping at his heels, ready to undermine him if he does not tow to their line!

So in summary, neither Nancy Pelosi nor John Boehner will have an easy time if either is the potential Speaker of the House in the 112th Congress!

It is more likely that Steny Hoyer or Eric Cantor will be the ultimate beneficiary of these congressional elections two days from now!