Pennsylvania

The Key To A Majority Of Democrats In House Of Representatives: Gains In New York, New Jersey, Virginia, Illinois, California

Five “Blue” States for Hillary Clinton and the Democrats have a total of 42 seats of Republicans in the House of Representatives—New York, New Jersey, Virginia, Illinois, California.

All of these states, except Illinois, presently have Democratic Governors, with Bruce Rauner in great trouble in trying to win reelection in Illinois, including the possible Democratic challenger being Chris Kennedy, one of the sons of Robert F. Kennedy.

Five out of nine in New York; four out of five in New Jersey; four out of seven in Virginia; four out of seven in Illinois; and eight out of fourteen in California—these are the vulnerable seats, a total of 25, with the Democrats needing 24 seats to gain majority control of the House of Representatives.

Not all will be won, of course, but some of these Republicans have decided not to seek reelection, which makes their seats even more likely to switch. Altogether, 25 of the 42 seats that are presently Republican in these five states are in play.

of course, there are many other vulnerable seats for Republicans, but if a high percentage of these seats in the five “Blue” states go Democratic, then it is assured that the Democrats will gain majority control in November 2018.

Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania also have contested seats that could go Democratic, so the real battleground is the five “Blue” states and these three states that went to Donald Trump.

American History Since The Civil War: President’s Party Loses 32 House Seats And 2 Senate Seats In First Midterm Election

American history tells us that the party of the President regularly loses seats in the first, and all but once in the second (when it occurs) Presidential term of office.

The one major exception was 1934, when in the midst of the Great Depression, and FDR’s New Deal programs, the Democratic party gained 9 seats in the Senate and 9 seats in the House of Representatives.

Also, in 2002, after September 11, George W. Bush and the Republican Party gained 2 seats in the Senate and 8 in the House of Representatives.

And Bill Clinton and the Democratic Party, in the second term midterm election in 1998, gained 5 House seats, with no change in the US Senate.

That is the total historical record since the Civil War, more than 150 years, so it is clear that the Democrats will gain seats in the midterm elections of 2018.

The average since the Civil War is 32 House seats and 2 Senate seats, and if that happens precisely, the Democrats will have gained the House, needing only 24 seats, and the average historically being 23 seats, when one includes both first and second term midterm elections of a President.

But also, if the Senate were to see just the 2 seat gain as the average, then the Democrats would have the majority with 51 seats, which can be brought about by gaining the contested seats of Arizona, where Jeff Flake is retiring, and Nevada, where Dean Heller is seen as the most endangered Republican in 2018.

But to accomplish that, the Democrats must produce, miraculously. the retention of Senate seats in 10 Trump states in 2016–Missouri, North Dakota, Indiana, Montana, West Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio, and also retain the Minnesota seat recently vacated by Al Franken, and the New Jersey Senate seat of Bob Menendez, who faces another criminal trial after a hung jury. That will be a tall order for sure!

Puerto Rican Migration To Florida In Two Months 200,000, Double Original Estimate: A Harbinger Of Florida Turning “Blue” In Future Presidential Elections

The effects of Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico will change future Presidential elections, with the Democratic Party winning the state in future contests for the White House.

Puerto Rico is losing a substantial portion of its citizenry due to the slow and inadequate response on the island to this natural disaster by the Trump Administration.

Some Puerto Ricans, all of whom are citizens of the US, and can register to vote immediately, have migrated to New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Illinois, but the vast majority, more than 200,00, double the original estimate, have moved to Florida, preferring warm weather.

Most have settled in Central Florida, in the Orlando and Tampa areas, with the Puerto Rican population having multiplied since the 2010 Census, while a lesser number have moved to South Florida.

As long as these citizens register and vote, the largest number will vote Democratic, and in close races for the White House, that can make a difference, and it could also, over time, affect state elections for Governor and other executive offices, as well as the state legislature.

When Florida becomes reliably “Blue”, it will add 29 electoral votes in the 2020 Presidential election, and more than that once reapportionment of seats based on the 2020 Census, and in time for the 2024 and 2028 Presidential elections.

And when the Hispanic vote of any part of Latin America becomes larger and reliably Democratic, except for Cuban Americans then Georgia, Arizona, and eventually Texas will be “Blue”, and the Republicans are doomed on the Presidential level.

Only by voter suppression and discrimination will the GOP have a chance to win, and one can be sure they will use every imaginable tactic to prevent Hispanic voting, so Democrats have to work incessantly to insure that Hispanics are not denied the right to vote, including law suits to stop this disgraceful tactic of the party that, more than ever, represents the Tea Party mentality.

Time To Move Against Electoral College Distorting Popular Vote, Through National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Agreement

The issue of the Electoral College having failed to elect the popular vote winner of the Presidency for a total of five times now, and twice in the last 16 years, continues to plague us, particularly when the present incumbent of the White House lost the popular vote by the biggest margin yet, 2.85 million votes.

There is no other political election in America where the person with the most popular votes is not the winner of the election.

The Founding Fathers might have seen the Electoral College as a necessary bulwark against mass popular control at the time, but once we began having popular votes in the 1824 Presidential election, it was an advancement of democracy, and the idea that a popular vote loser would win the Presidency was appalling.

It happened in 1824 in a four person race, but then, it occurred in 1876 with a two person race, and then in 1888, again with a two person race.

Since it did not happen again for more than a century, it was assumed to be flukes that would not happen again, and over the years of my teaching career, I was often asked whether it would happen again, and I responded, that while it could happen, it was highly unlikely that it would.

And then came the Presidential Election of 2000, where George W. Bush won with Supreme Court intervention stopping the recount in the state of Florida, winning that state over Al Gore by 537 votes out of six million cast, and therefore barely winning the Electoral College, despite a 540,000 popular vote lead nationally of Al Gore.

In 2016, the situation was even worse, as Donald Trump won by very small margins in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton nationally by 2.85 million popular votes, so five and a half times the popular vote lead for Clinton over Trump as compared to Gore over Bush in 2000, but Trump winning the Electoral College, but only 12 national elections with a smaller electoral vote majority out of a total number of 58 national elections.

The problem is trying to end the Electoral College by constitutional amendment is dead upon arrival, as it requires a two thirds vote of the House of Representatives and a two thirds vote of the Senate, followed by a majority vote in both houses of state legislatures (except in the one house of Nebraska) in three fourths of the states (38 out of 50). Clearly, that will never happen, particularly with Republican majorities in both houses of Congress, and four of the five times that the Electoral College failed, the ultimate winner was a Republican, and the loser each time was a Democrat.

But the alternative is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Agreement, developed in recent years, with 10 states and Washington DC with 165 electoral votes agreeing by legislation that they would support the popular vote winner nationally, instructing their electors to do so. The problem is that the 10 states and DC are clearly, at this point, Democratic or “Blue” states—California, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington State.

Once states with 105 additional electoral votes agree to pass such legislation, it would go into effect, but that is the more difficult matter. At this point, 12 states with 96 electoral votes have had one house of the state legislature agree to such a law—Arkansas, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma,and Oregon. Also, two other states have had committees in the state legislature approve it unanimously, with these two states—Georgia and Missouri—having 27 additional electoral votes.

So if all these states that have taken partial action completed the process in the next few years, we would have 24 states and DC, with a majority of the total popular vote and population, being capable of awarding the Presidency to the winner of the national popular vote, and this would end the idea of a popular vote loser becoming President.

Republican reliable states—Arkansas, Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Missouri—are part of this group, but the question is whether they will take the steps to put it into effect.

While there is no certainty this will ever happen, there is optimism that it will eventually occur, as otherwise, the possibility of a return of 2000 and 2016 is highly likely in the future, and not just once.

If this were to occur, it would promote a truly national Presidential campaign, instead of the present focus in recent decades on 12-15 states, and ignoring the clear cut “Blue” and “Red” states in favor of the “Purple” or “Swing” states alone.

Republican Tax Plan Will Hurt Middle Class, Promote More Concentration Of Wealth, And Will Kill Republican Majority Whether It Passes Or Not!

The Republican Party’s attempt to promote “tax reform” will fail, whether it passes or not.

The likelihood is that Republicans in New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California will refuse to vote for it, since it ends deduction of state and local income taxes on tax forms in those states.

It is also likely that a few Republicans in the US Senate will oppose it because of other aspects of the plan that make it uncomfortable to support.

The bill would victimize the middle class, and promote greater concentration of wealth in the top one percent and the corporations.

It would harm the white working class voters who put Donald Trump in office in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

The legislation adds $1.75 trillion to the national debt, and cuts so many programs and benefits, displeasing deficit hawks because of the former, and moderates and independents due to the latter.

Charities will be harmed by the legislation, and home builders and real estate agents will be affected by limits on mortgage interest deductions, making people less willing to buy homes, and instead to rent their housing.

Corporations will gain the most from the legislation, and many Americans are angry that many corporations already pay little or no taxes.

The legislation would also hurt Obamacare in a different form, even after failure to repeal it earlier this year, and no replacement is offered for millions of Americans who benefit from it.

The end of the estate tax, which affects so few people, also will displease the average American, who does not understand why all inheritances should be untouched in any way by taxes, as wealthy people have a responsibility to pay their fair share in life, as well as at the end of life, rather than pass on tens of millions to their heirs, without any responsibility to contribute to the future of American society.

Also, medical deductions would be limited, and students who have massive loan payments would not be able to deduct any of them on their tax return, undermining the sick and the young.

One can expect that this legislation will not pass, and therefore will harm the Republican Party, but if somehow it does pass, it also will harm the Republican brand in the 2018 midterm elections!

Joe Biden Looks Ahead: His Diplomatic Experience, His Ability To Unite, His Authenticity May Be The Prescription Needed In 2020

Joe Biden has started to speak out openly about Donald Trump and the future of the nation and the Democratic Party.

Anyone who has followed this blog knows how much I admire Joe Biden.

I wanted him to be the 2016 nominee, but his son’s death prevented that race, but I do believe, had he been the nominee, he would have defeated Donald Trump among the white working class, the crucial vote in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

No politician is perfect, but Joe Biden still stirs the imagination of millions of Democrats and the American people.

His career of 36 years in the US Senate and eight years as Vice President is unmatched. His diplomatic experience, his ability to unite, and his authenticity may be the prescription needed in 2020.

His popularity and respect among Republicans and Democrats is unprecedented for a modern political leader.

The fact that he will be 78 years old days after the 2020 election causes him to be considered not a good choice for 2020.

But just as gender and race should not be barriers, even age should not be, as some older leaders have succeeded, such as Konrad Adenauer of West Germany and Winston Churchill of Great Britain.

This is not an endorsement of Biden for 2020, as ideally, a younger, fresher candidate is highly preferable.

But if Biden runs, and the people in primaries and caucuses want him, why not have him as the nominee in 2020, but with a much younger and well qualified Vice President just in case of tragedy.

Whether or not Joe Biden ever runs for President again, he is clearly a national treasure to be admired and respected!

3 Moderate Republicans To Retire (Ileana Ros Lethinen Of Florida, Dave Reichart Of Washington, Charlie Dent Of Pennsylvania), Opening Up Seats To Democratic Gains

Three members of the House of Representatives who are moderates, and who have had strong doubts about Donald Trump all along, have decided to “jump ship”. and not run for reelection in 2018.

In so doing, they, and others who might do the same, are demonstrating the problem of the future of the Republican Party, that it is in danger of becoming an extremist right wing party, which is anti government and the traditions of the Republican Party.

Florida Congresswoman Ileana Ros Lehtinen, Washington Congressman Dave Reichart, and Pennsylvania Congressman Charlie Dent have all decided not to run for reelection, and their loss is not good for the GOP future.

All three are seen as likely to back an impeachment move against Donald Trump, so they have an opportunity to become historic figures in the process of bringing Trump down over the next months.

With Trump repudiating Establishment Republican leadership (Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell), and making a deal with Democrats and moderate Republicans on aid for Hurricane Harvey and a three month extension of the debt limit, avoiding a crisis at the end of September, it is clear that civil war is developing in the Republican Party.

This includes the right wing extremists of the House Freedom Caucus working to form a third party movement, splintering the party into factions that bode ill for the party future in 2018 and beyond.

Donald Trump Has Serious Mental Illness: No Compassion, Empathy, Sympathy, Sincerity, Decency, Only Self Serving Glorification!

Donald Trump is a horrible human being, and the crisis of Hurricane Harvey proves that he has no ability to demonstrate compassion, empathy, sympathy, sincerity, or decency, but rather only self serving glorification.

He visited Corpus Christi and raves about the size of the crowd, not seemingly realizing they are not there to see him, but are simply victims of a horrible natural disaster which has torn from them all their earthly belongings, and in some cases, the lives of their loved ones.

He does not talk about the victims, including the police officer who was swept away, and the family of six with a similar fate.

He does not embrace anyone and spend time commiserating with them, something Barack Obama did after Superstorm Sandy in 2012, the Charleston Church Massacre in 2015, the Sandy Hook Massacre in 2012, and so many other tragedies.

He does not put his arms around people and give a passionate speech as Bill Clinton did after the Oklahoma City Bombing in 1995.

He does not unite us as Ronald Reagan did after the Challenger Astronaut disaster in 1986.

The man is seriously mentally ill, and his inability to be the Uniter In Chief after a great tragedy disqualifies him to be President of “all of the people”.

Trump may be the President of the “deplorables” who only care about themselves, about money, and about hating everyone not like them.

But this man is a disgrace to the human race, and his wife wearing inappropriate footwear to a flood zone and the best clothing possible so she would look good for her husband, is a reminder of the King of France, Louis XVI, before the French Revolution, and the reported utterance about the masses: “Let them eat cake!”

There are no redeeming qualities about Donald Trump, and he will go down for sure as the most despicable and disgraceful President ever, a national nightmare foisted on us by the outdated Electoral College, and the selfishness and narrow mindedness of 78,000 people in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Sadly, it will take a long time to undo the damage Donald Trump has wrought in just over seven months, but the push to remove Trump by impeachment, or use of the 25th Amendment, Section 4, or resignation must move forward full scale, as every day he is in the Oval Office, he undermines the nation and the international community!

Donald Trump Has Self-Imploded With His Words And Actions, Never Over 40 Percent In Polls, After Only 46 Percent Support In 2016!

President Donald Trump has self-imploded in his seven months in office, by his words and actions.

He has never been over 40 percent in the public opinion polls, and is resting at the low 30s in recent polls, and no other President has ever been as disastrous in public opinion ratings as he is.

He only had 46 percent of the national popular vote in November 2016, and from the beginning of his Presidency, he has never come even near that percentage.

He wants desperately to be popular, but even his base in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania rates him now in the 30s in public opinion polls in those states.

Trump is certainly unhappy, but also furious, temperamental, angry, and his mental and physical state is deteriorating rapidly.

He is under siege, and is very dangerous as a result.

The nation needs him to accept reality, that he cannot unite the nation, and should resign.

There is a growing feeling that he will do this, but the damage he has already done is massive, and we need him out of office pronto!

Donald Trump’s War On The Poor And Disabled Unprecedented In Modern American History!

Donald Trump clearly has no conscience, as he is moving ahead in a war on the poor and disabled, unprecedented in American history.

The Native Americans of such areas as the Pine Ridge Sioux Reservation of South Dakota; the poverty stricken areas of the major cities; the white working class of states such as West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio and Pennsylvania that is in desperation due to the decline of coal mining; the rural Southern and Midwest towns that have seen the close of factories and decline of agricultural prosperity; and the growing number of elderly and disabled people of all ages, all of which count on such government programs as Medicaid, Food Stamps, and Supplemental Security Income, now face massive cuts in programs, which these groups cannot afford to lose.

They will be unable to have proper nutrition; will be unable to afford visits to doctors or hospitals except in dire emergencies; and will face living out of cars or in homeless shelters; and doing without basic needs met, including dental care, winter heating and summer air conditioning, and ability to plan to send their children to college. They will have no opportunity to plan for a retirement when they are no longer able to work, particularly those with physical jobs, which will render them in a dire financial position in their twilight years.

But to Donald Trump, what really matters is not these “disposable” people, many of whom will most certainly die before their time due to neglect, but rather the additional wealth that will be gained by the elite wealthy from massive tax cuts at the expense of their fellow Americans, and will cause the moral and ethical decline of American society, as the evil aspects of capitalism will run rampant. Excessive greed and emphasis on profits is the priority over basic humanity!