Hillary Clinton

Nancy Pelosi Will Be Ranked One Of All Time Greatest Speakers Of The House, As Well As Most Powerful Woman In American History

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is assured a ranking as one of the all time greatest Speakers of the House, as well as the most powerful woman in American history.

She will rank in the category of Sam Rayburn, Thomas “Tip” O’Neill, Henry Clay, John W. McCormack, Nicholas Longworth, Champ Clark, Thomas Reed, Thomas Foley, James K. Polk, and Joseph Cannon. She is already 11th longest serving, and if she remains as Speaker through 2022, her planned date for retirement, she will be 5th longest serving, only behind Sam Rayburn, Henry Clay, Thomas “Tip” O’Neill, and John W. McCormack.

At the age of 79, with her birthday being March 26, she will become the oldest Speaker in American history on February 5, 2020, when she surpasses Sam Rayburn, who died 51 days before his 80th birthday. So she will reach 80 in March, very alert, competent, and totally in charge, and President Donald Trump is very much afraid of her, like he has never been of any other woman.

Understand that Nancy Pelosi is the most powerful woman in American history in her position, two heartbeats away from the Presidency. The highest ranking women otherwise have been multiple Secretaries of State–Madeleine Albright, Condoleezza Rice, and Hillary Clinton, all four heartbeats away from the Presidency. There has also been four Supreme Court Justices—Sandra Day O’Connor, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Sonia Sotomayor, and Elena Kagan. Additionally, there were two prospective Vice Presidents–Geraldine Ferraro and Sarah Palin. But that is the list, a short list, and only Nancy Pelosi has reached the pinnacle of power, and at a time of a challenge of a corrupt President, who would love to have absolute power, but has been stopped dead in his tracks by the woman from San Francisco!

The 2010s: 15 Major Events Which Had An Impact

We are ending a decade in nine days from today, although technically a decade begins with a “1”, not a zero, but to most people, the fact that the number changes from “1” to “2” as the first digit, marks it as a new decade.

So looking back ten years, what are the major events in public affairs that have had an impact?

In no special order, here are the most significant events of the past decade:

The “Arab Spring”, which led to turmoil in the Middle East, and led to civil war and massive bloodshed in the area, but ultimately being overcome by authoritarian leaders and conditions of anarchy and chaos.

The passage of the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare), accomplished in the second year of the Obama Presidency.

The death of Al Qaeda terrorist leader Osama bin Laden, after avoiding capture for nearly ten years.

The election of Pope Francis by the Catholic Church, having a massive impact on Catholic doctrine, and liberalizing the church’s doctrines and teachings.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea, leading to sanctions against Russia by the US and many European nations, and leading to Vladimir Putin working to undermine western democracies for the remainder of the decade.

The rise of the terrorist group ISIS (ISIL), which controlled large portions of Iraq and Syria, and engaged in massive abuses and tortures and executions, eventually mostly overcome by efforts of European nations and the United States.

The candidacy and election of Donald Trump to the Presidency, despite his divisive rhetoric and elements of nativism, racism, and misogyny.

Gay Marriage decision of the Supreme Court, a revolutionary change in American society.

Restoration of diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba, after five and a half decades of total isolation.

The massive tragedies of gun violence in schools, theaters, churches, synagogues, nightclubs, open air concerts, shopping malls and supermarkets, with no attempt to address the issue due to the power of the National Rifle Association over Congress and President Donald Trump.

Russian intervention in the Presidential Election of 2016, helping to secure the victory of Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College, while losing the popular vote by 2.85 million votes, largest loss of popular vote of an Electoral College winner in American history.

The effects of the “Me Too” movement of women exposing sexual harassment against prominent public figures, causing many to lose their careers and reputations.

The horrendous policy of separating migrant children from their families at the southern border with Mexico and Central America, causing great condemnation of the Trump Administration.

The Robert Mueller investigation of the Trump Presidential campaign, and the Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2018, leading to the impeachment of Donald Trump after exposure of the Ukraine Scandal.

The growing reality of climate change and global warming, with the US under Donald Trump refusing to keep the Paris Accord of 2015 on goals for lowering of carbon emissions.

One Year To The Presidential Election Of 2020: My Past Record On The Last Three Presidential Elections

Here we are one year before the Presidential Election of 2020, and one of my contributors-commentators on this blog, D, asked awhile back that I come up with an estimate of what might happen in the upcoming Presidential contest.

I wish to point out that in 2008, I predicted the results of the Electoral College within one electoral vote, as I thought the Electoral College would be 364-174, and it ended up as 365-173.

I had not thought that one district in Nebraska, in the Omaha metropolitan area, would give an electoral vote to Barack Obama over John McCain, with Nebraska and Maine being the two states that have permitted split electoral votes, and with Nebraska only doing this in 2008. My article on this election was on November 2, 2008.

On November 4, 2012, my article predicted that Barack Obama would defeat Mitt Romney by an electoral vote of 332-206, and celebrated the precise electoral vote victory in an entry on November 9, 2012.

In 2016, I predicted on November 5, 2016, that Hillary Clinton would win over Donald Trump by a margin of 352-186, and was, like everyone else, totally off base, and still recovering from the shock in 2019.

So I have been accurate twice, and totally wrong the most recent time, and now it is time for projecting what might happen in the year 2020, although the estimate and judgment could be changed dramatically by events not possible to predict.

And since we do not know who the nominees of the major parties will be, it is much harder to project the ultimate result.

However, I will post my prediction, after being away for a few days, in midweek, and I welcome commentary by anyone reading this blog.

14 Weeks Until First Vote In Iowa Caucuses

As the House of Representatives is working on its impeachment inquiry involving President Donald Trump, the political calendar is starting to close in on many Democratic Presidential contenders.

It is now only 14 weeks until the first Americans vote on 2020, with the Iowa Caucuses taking place on Monday, February 3.

Iowa is not truly decisive on who wins the nomination and the Presidency in either major political party, as the only times that Iowa was a sign of the future was when an incumbent President was not on the ballot, and even then, not very often.

Democratic Party

Walter Mondale in 1984

Al Gore in 2000

John Kerry in 2004

Barack Obama in 2008

Hillary Clinton in 2016

George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Michael Dukakis in 1988, and Bill Clinton in 1992 failed to win Iowa.

Republican Party

Gerald Ford in 1976

Bob Dole in 1996

George W. Bush in 2000

Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H. W. Bush in 1988, John McCain in 2008, Mitt Romney in 2012, and Donald Trump in 2016 failed to win Iowa.

So only George W. Bush in 2000 and Barack Obama in 2008 won Iowa and went on to win the Presidency in the fall of those years.

So do not expect that who wins Iowa will automatically be the nominee for the Democrats in November 2020.

Since 1972, Iowa has been accurate on the Democratic nominee 43 percent of the time, and 50 percent accurate on the Republican nominee.

Iowa is not representative of the nation in its population mix, but it gives a leg up to a few of the candidates, while dashing the hopes of so many others.

Alternative Candidates Who Might Enter The Democratic Presidential Race

Hard to believe, but rumors are spreading that there could be alternative candidates who might enter the Democratic Presidential race.

These would include:

2016 Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton

Former First Lady Michelle Obama

Former 2004 Presidential nominee John Kerry

Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg

Former Attorney General Eric Holder

Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick

Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown

Most of these ideas are totally preposterous.

It is time for Hillary Clinton to pass the torch finally, and make an unequivocal statement she will not run, as she would divide the party and the nation in such a way that would be totally destructive.

Michelle Obama is not going to run, too smart to consider it.

John Kerry is another too old nominee, who is from the distant past, 2004 as a Presidential candidate, and would be 77 when taking the oath, and the last thing we need is another old candidate.

The same goes for Michael Bloomberg, who would five months younger than Bernie Sanders and nine months older than Joe Biden, and would be one month short of 79 in January 2021, too old, and really too divisive with his record as NYC Mayor, and not loyal to the Democratic Party.

Eric Holder and Deval Patrick would only create more racial division, with Cory Booker and Kamala Harris and Julian Castro already in the race, and Holder highly controversial and being 70 the day after the inauguration, and Deval Patrick just another Massachusetts politician, but with no real constituency to run.

If any candidate deciding to run makes sense, it just might be Sherrod Brown, who considered running, and would be a strong competitor from Ohio, but if he is to run, time is of the essence. He would be 68 at the time of the inauguration, and might be a good Vice Presidential choice instead of for the Presidency.

But except for Brown, really, the next Democratic Presidential nominee needs to come from the present, rapidly dwindling list, and dreaming of alternatives needs to end!

The Two Democrats Who Might Replace Joe Biden, And Both Are From The Midwest Battleground

Further thought and analysis on the Ohio Presidential debate of Tuesday makes this blogger and scholar believe that two Midwesterners–South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar—come out as the stars of the debate.

Both were very strong in promoting a moderate center left vision of the Democratic Party, which gives the party a better chance of success against Donald Trump.

Being from Indiana and Minnesota respectively gives either or both a better opportunity to contest the states lost by Hillary Clinton in 2016 by small margins.

So if Joe Biden slips, which seems very possible, both offer an equivalent vision of what Biden stands for, rather than the more leftist Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders.

There are still three and a half months to the first contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, so despite early indications that Biden, Warren, and Sanders have a dominant position, there is still time for alternatives, and the most likely, clearly, are Buttigieg and Klobuchar.

The Economy Over Character And Morality: The Typical Trump Supporter

It is very disconcerting that a large percentage of Donald Trump supporters admit they do not like his tweets; wish he would stop uttering a lot of his controversial comments and promotion of divisiveness; and yet still support him, all because of the stock market being up, and their 401 Ks being better, and many wealthy people getting massive tax cuts.

So economics, the evil of money, dominates them, and if Trump takes us into a war; or is destroying environmental laws; or undermining consumer protections; or is flirting with authoritarian leaders; or is destroying our traditional alliances with democracies; or is threatening civil liberties and civil rights; or is mistreating migrant children and undermining their physical and emotional health long term; or is out to destroy all regulations of corporate practices; or is turning our court system back to the Gilded Age; or is working to destroy all the good that came out of the New Deal of FDR and the Great Society of LBJ; well, that is not important as long as one’s economic prosperity is greater.

The fact that the economy being in good shape is due to the amazing revival under Barack Obama, and would most certainly have continued under Hillary Clinton, is often denied by such people. And they clearly do not give a damn what happens to the nation, as long as they, personally, are doing well economically. Nothing else matters, as this is a case of ME, MYSELF and I, and nothing else.

So character and morality and the harm being done to America does not matter as long as one is economically better off personally, so to hell with what is good for America!

What could be more despicable than that? But remember, a similar mentality existed in Nazi Germany in the 1930s, and look what it led to!

Imagine A Female President And Vice President? It Is Possible!

The thought that in the centennial year of the 19th Amendment (woman suffrage), we might elect a woman President and a woman Vice President, seems impossible, but indeed, it could happen.

Such a combination would be either Elizabeth Warren for President and Amy Klobuchar for Vice President, or Kamala Harris running for President with Klobuchar as her running mate.

All three women are much more qualified than many men who have in the past run for the nomination for President, and it would be inspirational to have two women, with real convictions and common decency and empathy, operating the executive branch of government.

It would also make up for the loss of Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College, and imagine Warren or Harris in debate with Donald Trump, and Klobuchar in debate with Mike Pence. Do not forget that both Harris and Klobuchar were prosecutors in California and Minnesota, and that Warren is no wallflower and would come out in full combat against Donald Trump, as much as either of the other two women candidates.

And realize that all three of the women candidates, were they to lose, would still keep their seats in the United States Senate.

It would be very refreshing to have a different perspective, and two honest, decent, qualified women cleaning up the mess created by men over recent years!

Which States Are Guaranteed To Vote For Donald Trump In 2020?

Based on the percentages who voted for Donald Trump in the Presidential Election of 2016, the following is the list that will live and die with Donald Trump next year:

West Virginia 68 percent

Wyoming 67 percent

Oklahoma 65 percent

Nebraska 64 percent

North Dakota 63 percent

South Dakota 62 percent

Alabama 62 percent

Kentucky 62 percent

Arkansas 61 percent

Tennessee 61 percent

Idaho 59 percent

Louisiana 58 percent

Mississippi 58 percent

Alaska 57 percent

Kansas 57 percent

Indiana 57 percent

Missouri 57 percent

Montana 56 percent

South Carolina 55 percent

Utah is a special case, a Mormon dominated state, where Evan McMullin, the former CIA operative, a conservative, was able to win 22 percent of the vote, which when added to Donald Trump’s total (45 percent), meant more than 68 percent were against Democrat Hillary Clinton.

So if one adds these 20 states together, they add up to ONLY 125 electoral votes, meaning if Trump only won these 20 states, the Electoral College would be 413 for the Democratic Presidential nominee, a true landslide defeat for Donald Trump!

Note that these 20 states include 8 in the South; 5 in the Great Plains; 2 in the Midwest; and 5 in the West.

Joe Biden Pledges His Vice Presidential Running Mate Will Be A Woman Or Person Of Color

In an interview with a group of African American journalists, former Vice President Joe Biden pledged that if he was to end up as the Presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, he would select a Vice Presidential running mate who was either a woman or a person of color.

This is, if it indeed occurs, quite a revolutionary step, and it gives us the following list of potential Vice Presidential nominees:

Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota

Senator Kamala Harris of California

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts

Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey

Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary and San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro of Texas

Entrepreneur Andrew Yang of New York

Former Georgia Gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams of Georgia

It would seem highly unlikely that Elizabeth Warren would be asked or accept, and being the oldest potential nominee at age 71 in 2020, alongside Biden, who would be 78, is highly unlikely.

It also seems unlikely that Andrew Yang would be tapped, as he has no government experience.

Stacey Abrams was rumored months ago to be a potential Vice Presidential nominee, but without any state level executive experience or Congressional or other federal government experience, it would seem highly unlikely.

So the bet would seem to be either Amy Klobuchar, shoring up the Midwest support, which is crucial, or Julian Castro, with his mayoral experience in a large city in Texas, and his cabinet office experience. Also, Castro was on the short list for Hillary Clinton, and being that the Latino population is the largest minority in America, and that he has an inspiring story of growing up in poverty without a father present, makes him very appealing. Castro might also put Texas into play for the election.

Harris might not wish to be number 2 on the ticket, and there is no need for California to be concerned about in the election. And Cory Booker comes from the same Northeast as Biden, so seems highly unlikely to be selected, plus there already has been an African American male President, Barack Obama.