Hillary Clinton

Is “White Flight” Against Republicans And Donald Trump Occurring In 2020?

Based on recent polls that seem unbelievable, the idea of “White Flight” from Republicans might be happening.

This would be due to the CoronaVirus Pandemic, the collapse of the economy, but also due to the shock and outrage of many people toward Donald Trump, and his behavior in the Presidency these past three and a half years!

His incompetence and lack of compassion and empathy is making many white voters reconsider the upcoming elections.

So the number of states experiencing polls that show Republicans running behind for the Congress, as well as the President, are multiplying.

Many suburban women, college educated whites, independents, moderate Republicans, and all age groups among whites, except for seniors, are moving toward the possibility of voting for Democrats in Congress, and also for former Vice President Joe Biden.

There is still, theoretically, time for many of these people to reconsider their move away from Trump and the Republican Party, but since events are not going to get better anytime soon, and actually are worsening daily, that is highly unlikely.

So the situation looks as follows:

As indicated in earlier blog posts, the 20 states and Washington DC, which voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, seem securely in Joe Biden’s camp.

Add to this the six states that determined the election for Donald Trump in the Electoral College, all having voted for Barack Obama in 2012–Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida. As of now, the latter four seem clearly in Biden’s camp, and would insure a Democratic victory for the White House.

But Ohio and Iowa also show leanings toward Biden, and other states, thought to be “Red”, also are showing evidence of the same leanings, including North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, but also Kansas, Montana, Indiana and Missouri, and the 2nd district of Nebraska. This would mean 443 electoral votes to 95, as this author and blogger predicted on April 30.

So 34 states could go to Biden, and the Republican US Senators or open seats running in Maine, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, two in Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Kansas, and Montana are all in danger as well.

South Carolina and Kentucky seem hard to overcome on the Presidential level, but both Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell seem in a real tight race for their seats, and could lose.

If all of these Senate seats went Democratic, the party could control 12 more seats than they have now, with 59 maximum, or if the one endangered Democrat, Doug Jones in Alabama, lost, it would be 58 seats. If there is a “Blue Wave”, however, one would think Jones would survive his Senate race!

The way things are going, one could even imagine some of the 16 “certain” states for Trump voting against him by small margins, but enough to give the state to Joe Biden.

This would include Alaska, South Carolina, and Kentucky with a total of 20 electoral votes, so if the maximum imaginable occurred, the final electoral vote would be 37 states and 463 electoral votes to 75 for Trump!

And this would mean that Joe Biden would win by a likely ten point or more margin in the total popular vote!

One more time, in mid to late October, this author and blogger will make a final projection on the likely Senate and Presidential results!

Advice To Joe Biden: Allow Donald Trump To Hang Himself While You Act With Statesmanship And Dignity In The Remaining Weeks Of The Campaign

With exactly 15 weeks, 105 days until the Presidential Election of 2020, the best advice to Joe Biden is to allow Donald Trump to “hang himself” with his hysterical ranting and constant lying, and ignore his taunts and crazy conspiracy theories.

Joe Biden should continue to act with statesmanship and dignity in the remaining weeks of the campaign, which he has done so far.

The result has been that Biden is far ahead in all public opinion polls, much larger leads than Hillary Clinton had at the same time in 2016.

Biden is making substantial speeches on various matters, and showing he is fully capable of planning for changes starting six months from today, the day after his inauguration.

He is a calming influence, and gives confidence and hope to millions who are suffering from multiple crises—the CoronaVirus Pandemic, the economic depression, and the civil rights and racial crisis.

The President is planning to engage again in press conferences on the Pandemic, but if he continues to conduct himself as he did in March and April, his ratings will go down ever more.

So the only time for Joe Biden to directly engage with Donald Trump is when the Presidential debates take place on Tuesday, September 29 at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana; Thursday, October 15 at the Adrienne Arsht Center For The Performing Arts in Miami, Florida; and Thursday October 22 at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee.

The Vice Presidential debate between Vice President Mike Pence and the woman chosen for the Vice Presidency by Joe Biden will take place on Wednesday October 7 at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.

Acceptance Of Defeat In Presidential Elections A Norm, Except For Donald Trump!

The American political tradition is that the losers of elections accept defeat in Presidential elections, as well as other elections, and do not act like sore losers!

But we have a “sore loser” President who now says he does not know if he will accept defeat in November!

What does he propose to do? To encourage his supporters to promote violence and bloodshed? To refuse to leave office and barricade himself in the Oval Office?

If any move to promote violence and bloodshed develops as a result of Trump’s bad behavior, it is time to arrest him, even while still President, as a traitor! And were he to refuse to leave office on January 20, 2021, the Secret Service, the Capitol Police, and elements of the military would have to drag him out, maybe in handcuffs and chains, and maybe being ‘rough”, as he suggested to police officers one time on Long Island, New York in 2017!

There is no room for a loser who will not accept loss!

When we look at our history, Samuel Tilden was gracious in defeat in 1876 despite having won the popular vote to Rutherford B. Hayes.

The same happened when President Grover Cleveland lost reelection in 1888 to Benjamin Harrison, despite winning the popular vote.

The same happened when Richard Nixon lost to John F. Kennedy in 1960, in the midst of accusations of fraud in Illinois and Texas.

It also happened in 2000 when Al Gore won the popular vote over George W. Bush, but lost the electoral vote due to Florida voting for Bush by the official count of 537 votes.

And Hillary Clinton also accepted defeat in 2016, despite a massive nearly 3 million popular vote lead over Donald Trump, but in a very close count, lost the Electoral College by small margins in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

What was acceptable for Samuel Tilden, Grover Cleveland, Richard Nixon, Al Gore, and Hillary Clinton MUST be good enough for Donald Trump!

Donald Trump: George Wallace, Strom Thurmond, Pat Buchanan On Steroids!

President Donald Trump is a true nightmare, as he has brought to ultimate power the viewpoints and policies of Alabama Governor George Wallace, who ran for President on a third party line in 1968, and won 13 percent of the national popular vote, and 46 electoral votes from five Southern states at the height of the Civil Rights movement in the 1960s.

Donald Trump has also brought to mind the then South Carolina Governor and later US Senator Strom Thurmond, who won four Southern states and 39 electoral votes in 1948, also on an anti civil rights platform.

Donald Trump reminds us also of Pat Buchanan, journalist, commentator, and advisor to Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, who challenged President George H. W. Bush for renomination in 1992, and weakened his reelection campaign in that election year.

All three men were racists, hatemongers, Fascist oriented, and against civil rights.

Additionally, Buchanan was also a big time antisemite, who actually, indirectly, affected the Presidential Election of 2000. Four thousand Jewish voters in Palm Beach County, Florida, were confused by the so called “butterfly” ballot, and punched the hole for Buchanan, rather than Democratic nominee Al Gore, helping to influence the election result, with George W. Bush being declared the winner of Florida’s electoral vote by a margin of 537 popular votes statewide, and winning the Presidency!

All three of these candidates were obnoxious, disgraceful, and reprehensible, but while they all gained popular support to some extent, none was feared or became a dominant factor in leadership of the national government.

But now, we have a President who represents all of the evil and horrors promoted by Wallace, Thurmond, and Buchanan, but he was able to manipulate votes with Russian interference in 2016. Despite losing the national popular vote by a massive nearly three million to Hillary Clinton, he was able to win three states in popular vote combined of 78,000 (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) and become President.

He has unleashed one horror and disgraceful action and utterance after another, doing massive damage to American domestic and foreign policy, and attempting to do everything he can to make himself an authoritarian leader on a level unimaginable in American history.

Donald Trump makes George Wallace, Strom Thurmond, and Pat Buchanan look like choir boys by comparison. He raises the historical profile of the President most reviled for his actions and behavior before now—Richard Nixon–to a higher level, with at least Nixon having accomplished some really significant goals that are seen as positive in historical retrospect.

But many of the accomplishments of Nixon are now either gone or being destroyed by this maniac, who if he is somehow reelected by manipulation and fraud, is a clear threat to the Constitution and Bill of Rights!

Joe Biden Should Seek To Win Strongly “Red” States, To Promote Democratic Strength, And Humiliate Donald Trump!

There is a growing feeling of a Democratic “Tsunami” on the way on November 3, 2020, when the Presidential and Congressional Elections take place across the nation.

Indications are that Joe Biden is working hardest on convincing voters to support him in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the three “swing” states that Hillary Clinton lost by small margins.

If those three states switched from Donald Trump to Joe Biden, then the former Vice President would win the Electoral College.

But since there is no guarantee, it is important for Biden to work hard to win Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona as well, to allow for any slippage in the three states lost by Clinton by small numbers. So a lot of effort is going into winning those three states listed, as Biden is now comfortably ahead in all three, along with the other three.

If Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, as well as Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona it will be a massive victory, which is almost certain to insure that the Senate would go Democratic by more than the three minimum victories needed. And the House of Representatives would add to the Democratic margin gained in the midterm elections of 2018.

But the argument is why not also go for states that seem long shots–Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa, all of which would make Joe Biden a landslide winner by far?

And even further, why not try to win Kansas and Montana?

So if things go well, the Democrats could have the most massive victory for the Presidency since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and could be a sign of a Democratic majority that would be long lasting!

The total humiliation of Donald Trump would be a wonderful event to witness!

Trump Calls For Immediate Obama Care Repeal In Midst Of Pandemic: Most Obscene Action Imaginable!

In the midst of the worst public health crisis in a century, the Corona Virus Pandemic, Donald Trump has called for immediate action by the Supreme Court to repeal Obama Care, the Affordable Care Act of 2010.

The Republican Party has been unwilling to leave Obama Care alone, but has failed to destroy it, and offers no alternative to the tens of millions who depend on Obama Care for their health care.

If the GOP had an alternative plan, then one might consider it, but they have refused to come up with an alternative, even though Obama Care is very similar to Romney Care in Massachusetts under Mitt Romney, and to the plan developed by future House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Senator Bob Dole and the American Enterprise Institute in 1993-1994, as an alternative to the bolder Hillary Care health care plan of the Bill Clinton Administration.

Obama Care is not perfect, but one should not “throw out the baby with the bath water”, but instead come up with a different plan.

But for Donald Trump to promote the destruction of health care for millions without an alternative is truly the most obscene action imaginable!

Joe Biden Further Ahead In Polls For Early June Than Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, And John Kerry Were In Last Four Election Cycles

We have all learned from history that public opinion polls are not always accurate, but it is impressive, at least for now, that Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in all public opinion polls in early June, further ahead of Donald Trump than Hillary Clinton in 2016, Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008, and John Kerry in 2004 against their opponents.

It is clearly not a reason for those who support Joe Biden to become cocky, and even lazy about campaigning for him, and for encouraging others to vote in November.

But considering the first five months of 2020, with the impeachment trial; the CoronaVirust Pandemic; the collapse of the economy to depression levels; and the Trump decision to fire tear gas, pepper spray, and have two helicopters threaten peaceful demonstrators in Washington, DC, who were protesting the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis, one has to believe that the polls likely are accurate against Donald Trump.

Six Months To The Presidential Election Of 2020: A First Assessment

With six months and three days until the Presidential Election of 2020, it is time to make a first assessment of the upcoming election.

This author has just published an article on History News Network under my blog “Ronald L Feinman” stating that this upcoming election is the most important since 1940, and one of the five most significant elections in American history, along with 1860, 1864, 1932, and 1940.

Donald Trump is reported going totally off the rails on this, the 75th anniversary of the suicide of Adolf Hitler, and it gets one to think about what may yet happen, as Trump is falling behind Joe Biden in every imaginable poll nationally, and in the “swing” states, including the crucial state of Florida with its 29 electoral votes.

If Trump loses Florida, where many senior citizens retire and are dying in the midst of this CoronaVirus Pandemic, there is no practical way for him to win reelection.

With the pandemic which he is refusing to deal with rationally, only thinking about his election, and willing to endanger any crowd that might gather in Arizona or Ohio in coming weeks, and also wanting children back in school even if it undermines and threatens the lives of their parents and grandparents, Trump is clearly on the road to a massive defeat in November!

So, subject to change, here is my assessment of the upcoming election:

Joe Biden will win the 20 states that Hillary Clinton won:

All 6 New England states and add the second district of Maine, which went to Trump in 2016–33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic States of New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia, plus Virginia–72 electoral votes

Midwest States of Illinois and Minnesota–30 electoral votes

Mountain States of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada–20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast States of California, Oregon, Washington State, and Hawaii–78 electoral votes

So the “base”, adding the second district of Maine to the total, is 233 electoral votes of 270 needed.

Adding to that are the crucial states that Hillary Clinton lost in the Midwest—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (really considered more Northeast but also considered in western section as Midwest)—46

That brings the electoral vote total to 279, enough to win the Presidency for Joe Biden.

However, the trend is strongly in favor of other states turning “Blue”, with the Second Great Depression upon us, along with the CoronaVirus Pandemic, and the reality that Trump policies have alienated many groups:

Senior Citizens

Suburban Women

College Educated

Lower and Middle Income Voters

Racial Minorities (African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans)

Jews, Social Justice Catholics, Mainline Protestants

Young People Under 35

Independents

Moderate Republicans

Conservative Intellectuals

Of course, one is not saying that all of these groups will vote “Blue”, but it seems highly likely enough will vote that way and cause a smashing defeat for Donald Trump!

So what other states seem likely to go Democratic, in some cases, by small margins?

In order as follows:

Arizona–11 electoral votes

North Carolina–15 electoral votes

Florida–29 electoral votes

Nebraska–2nd Congressional District–1 electoral vote

Ohio–18 electoral votes

Georgia–16 electoral votes

Iowa–6 electoral votes

Montana–3 electoral votes

Kansas–6 electoral votes

Texas–38 electoral votes

So my estimate at this time, six months before the election, is a maximum of 32 states and DC for Biden and 18 for Trump, and 422 electoral votes to 116 for Trump.

The 116 electoral votes for Trump in 18 states would be:

West Virginia 5

Kentucky 8

South Carolina 9

Alabama 9

Mississippi 6

Louisiana 8

Arkansas 6

Tennessee 11

Missouri 10

Indiana 11

North Dakota 3

South Dakota 3

Nebraska 4 (not including 2nd District)

Oklahoma 7

Utah 6

Wyoming 3

Idaho 4

Alaska 3

But actually, Missouri (10) and Indiana (11) could, by earlier history, surprise, and also vote against Trump and support Biden by small margins, meaning there could be 34 states and a grand total of 443 to 95 in the Electoral College for the Democrats!

Remember that Indiana voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and Missouri was always with the winner since 1900, except in 1956, 2008 (both by small margins of about 4,000 votes) and 2012 when the margin was larger for the defeated candidate, Mitt Romney!

So the exact parameters of the Donald Trump defeat are not final, but this would seem to be the maximum, as another nearly 4 million Americans today filed for unemployment, a total of about 30 million, one out of five workers in the nation, approximately, which would mean a 20 percent unemployment rate, and growing.

If it goes over 25 percent in coming weeks, it will be worse than even the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the American people soundly defeated Herbert Hoover in 1932, and elected Franklin D. Roosevelt!

And realize that the average family size can be considered probably a family of four although there are many households of fewer than four, but if one considers that as a statistic, that means one out of three people directly are affected by unemployment, an astounding 33-35 percent rate, unimaginable and horrific!

The next President will have a challenge on the level of FDR and Abraham Lincoln!


Donald Trump The Ultimate Loser, As His “Beloved Economy” Is In Tatters, And He Gets Joe Biden, The Candidate He Most Feared, As His Opponent In November

Donald Trump has seen his dreams of a second term dwindling dramatically with his “beloved economy”, brought about by Barack Obama, in the greatest economic recovery in American history, now in tatters, and making him a President with an economic collapse that will not end magically in a few months. And never has a President in an economic downturn won reelection, never!

Trump got himself impeached over trying to prevent Joe Biden from becoming the Democratic nominee against him, since he fears him more than anyone else, and now he is stuck with Joe Biden as his opponent in November!

He will discover that Joe Biden will be a much tougher opponent than Hillary Clinton, and once Biden picks his woman running mate, the campaign will be on in force!

So it is time for Joe Biden to announce soon who his Vice Presidential nominee will be, and doing it sooner, rather than later, will enliven the campaign, even before the national conventions this summer!

As America Goes Into Panic Mode, Tonight Is The Joe Biden-Bernie Sanders Debate!

As America goes into panic mode, with the totally disastrous handling of the CoronaVirus Crisis by Donald Trump, tonight is the Joe Biden-Bernie Sanders debate on CNN, the last real opportunity for Sanders to attempt to overcome Joe Biden’s lead that was gained in the past two weeks of primaries in 20 states, with Biden winning 15 of the 20 contests.

Already, there are indications that many Bernie Sanders supporters will refuse to back Joe Biden, as many refused to back Hillary Clinton in 2016, contributing to the disastrous Donald Trump Presidency this past three years.

Even without the extremist Bernie supporters who act like children, not adults, insisting on what they want despite the vote of those who engaged in the primaries, Joe Biden seems to have gained independent, moderate Republican, suburbanites, white working class men, women, African Americans, and Latino support that can overcome the prima donnas, who are ready to destroy the ship if they cannot get what they want!

It will be crucial that Joe Biden perform well tonight to overcome the propaganda that he is demented, when we have a dangerous demented and corrupt President.

It is crucial, however, that no matter whether Biden or Sanders end up as the Democratic nominee, that an exceptional Vice President is chosen, as it is likely that either of them might not be able to finish the next term, just as it is likely that even Trump, if reelected, might not last to the end of the term in January 2025.

So the real choice this time is the Democratic VP successor or Mike Pence, and that should be a no-brainer!