Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump Democrat, Donald Trump Independent, Donald Trump Republican: Which Is The Real Donald Trump? None Of Them!

At this point, Donald Trump is surging ahead for the Republican Presidential nomination, but one has to wonder if he has the staying power to go all the way to the convention in Cleveland with enough delegate support to become the GOP nominee for President.

Right now, Trump sounds like a conservative Republican, but he has been a public figure for decades, and when one investigates his entire public record, Trump comes across as inconsistent, and wishy washy in his political views and statements.

Trump has been a declared Republican,then an Independent, than a Democrat, then a Republican although registered as an Independent.

Trump gave money to Hillary Clinton’s campaign for President in 2007-2008.

Trump once praised a single payer health care system, similar to Medicare for all, but now he opposes ObamaCare, although ten years ago he supported “health marts” very close to RomneyCare and ObamaCare.

Trump opposed the war in Iraq, but now says he would use military force to fight ISIL (ISIS).

Trump once supported a surtax on the rich, but now want the top income tax rate cut in half, and is against the inheritance tax.

Trump is best at attacking everyone personally, but has no set stands or details on most public issues, and prefers to use slogans and emotion to gain public support of those disillusioned with government as it is.

Trump has become most notorious for his “Birther” claims about Barack Obama, but otherwise is constantly contradictory on many issues.

Trump is hard to figure out, as he supports private sector labor unions; is against cutting Social Security and Medicare; reluctant to send military forces all over the world; and against the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal.

But he is against teachers unions and public employee unions generally; against an increase in the minimum wage; against those who claim there is climate change; against gun control; and against any path to citizenship for undocumented workers, and already infamous for his attacks on Mexican immigrants and Mexico.

Ultimately, Donald Trump is for Donald Trump, a person who will prostitute himself and change his views when it is convenient; a man who is a publicity hound who is more in this race for the attention he gains; a man who appeals to fears and frustrations and discontent among average voters unhappy with their government, and easily accepting conspiracy theories.

In that regard, Donald Trump is a demagogue, in ways like Huey P. Long on the left; and like George C. Wallace on the right, and sadly, we know what happened to these two men, one assassinated, and the other paralyzed for life by an assassin.

The story of Long and Wallace are covered in my forthcoming book on Presidential Assassinations, coming out August 15 from Rowman Littlefield, entitiled: “Assassinations, Threats, and the American Presidency: From Andrew Jackson to Barack Obama”, available on this website at a 30 percent discount, using the discount code 4M15ATAP with order from the publisher!

Third Party Candidacy Of Donald Trump Could Make Historical Records!

It is 15 and a half months until the Presidential Election of 2016.

But it is clear that the possibility exists that Donald Trump will break from the Republican Party, and run as a third party or independent candidate.

A new Washington Post poll indicates, for now, that in a three way race for the White House with Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, the results would be: Clinton 46 percent, Bush 30 percent, Trump 20 percent!

If that were to happen, it would mark the second time that a Clinton defeated a Bush in a race where a billionaire ran as an independent candidate, and was willing to spend unlimited amounts of personal fortune on the race.

If those numbers occurred, it would make Jeb Bush,or whoever was the GOP nominee, the second worst loser in American history, with only William Howard Taft, the incumbent President, in 1912 gaining only 23 percent of the vote and two states, and Progressive Party challenger, former President Theodore Roosevelt, ending up second, with 27 percent, and six states, the only time a third party nominee ended up second rather than third!

The issue that arises is could Trump, in a three way race, win any states and electoral votes, which Ross Perot failed to do in 1992, although ending up second rather than third in a few states.

Also, Ross Perot won 19 percent of the vote, the second highest in history to TR’s 27 percent in 1912. So Trump, with 20 percent, would end up ahead of Perot, and just might win a few states, unimaginable until now!

The Uncertainties Of American Politics: Envisioning Donald Trump As Possible President!

Some observers are starting to wonder whether billionaire celebrity Donald Trump could actually be elected President of the United States!

It would seem to be impossible, a crazy idea!

And yet, when one looks at history, one has to consider the following:

In 1911, who would have thought that a recently elected Governor of New Jersey, and former Princeton University President, named Woodrow Wilson, would become President in the Presidential election of 1912?

In 1959, who would have thought that a mediocre Senator of Catholic religion, named John F. Kennedy, would overcome his faith and become President in the Presidential election of 1960?

In 1967, who would have thought that a losing Presidential candidate in 1960 and losing gubernatorial candidate in California in 1962, named Richard Nixon, would overcome his losses and bad press and become President in the Presidential election of 1968?

In 1975, who would have thought that an obscure one term Governor of Georgia, who many ridiculed, named Jimmy Carter, would overcome his obscurity and Southern heritage, to become the first elected Southerner to the Presidency in the Presidential election of 1976, since Zachary Taylor in 1848?

In 1979, who would have thought an aging actor, who had already tried twice for the Presidency, named Ronald Reagan, would overcome disadvantages to become President in the Presidential election of 1980?

In 1991, who would have thought the governor of a small Southern state, Arkansas, named Bill Clinton, would overcome a sex scandal that had destroyed Gary Hart in 1987, and go on to become President in the Presidential election of 1992?

And in 2007, who would have thought that a mixed race African American with the strange name of Barack Hussein Obama, would overcome Hillary Clinton, and go on to become President in the Presidential election of 2008?

So who is to say that Donald Trump cannot overcome obstacles and go on to become the 45th President of the United States in the Presidential election of 2016?

A “Nice”, “Authentic” Person, Not A Mean Spirited, Uncaring Person: What People Want For Their Next President!

Americans are confused and upset about the uncertainties facing the nation, due to the political split in Congress and in the state legislatures. They might seem to cheer on a nasty, bullyish candidate who, momentarily, appears to vent their frustrations. But when emotions calm, that is not what the American people are looking for!

They want someone who is a “nice guy”, “authentic”, “real”, “truly concerned” about the issues and problems, confident and sure of himself, and a good debater who can overcome his opponents with his facts, knowledge, and charm, and convince the American people he is the right person for the Presidency! Joe Biden fits that description precisely, and even his opponents in the Republican Party, including Lindsey Graham, Mitch McConnell, John Boehner, and many others, respect and like him personally!

No Republican Presidential candidate fits that bill, not one of them.

Neither does Hillary Clinton fully evoke that feeling, and Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley simply do not have the ability to go all the way, and Sanders has the issue that most Americans are totally ignorant of the word “Socialism” and its meaning, and that harms his candidacy!

Face it, Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Dr Benjamin Carson, Rand Paul, Lindsey Graham, Rick Perry, Carly Fiorina—all of these come across as mean spirited and uncaring.

Jeb Bush, John Kasich and Marco Rubio come across in a somewhat better fashion, as does George Pataki and Jim Gilmore, but none of them have the personality and genuine nature of Joe Biden!

We have never elected a President since World War II, with the exception of Richard Nixon, who was not likable when elected. Lyndon B. Johnson, while not that likable, was in office before he faced election, as was Harry Truman, so they are not included. But all the others, despite whatever shortcomings they had, were likable when they were elected, except for Nixon.

We want to “like” our President, and the Republican Party has a major problem with “likability”, which guarantees they will lose, even to a candidate such as Hillary Clinton, who is not seen as particularly “likable”, while Sanders, O Malley and Joe Biden are all very “likable”. But Biden stands out over O’Malley and Sanders!

Is Al Gore Or John Kerry Viable As A Presidential Candidate In 2016? The History Of Henry Clay, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin D. Roosevelt, And Richard Nixon!

Speculation has risen not only that Vice President Joe Biden might announce for President, but also that former Vice President Al Gore and Secretary of State John Kerry, both who lost the Presidency to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 respectively, might decide to try for the White House yet again.

Although Hillary Clinton seems to many like a shoo-in for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2016, there are signs of discontent with her, and feelings among many that she is too secretive, not trustworthy, and not all that likable.

The odds are still heavily in favor of her nomination, but there are many who feel Biden, and possibly Gore and or Kerry, should consider running, as it is felt that Bernie Sanders, while performing well right now in regards to crowds and fund raising, ultimately cannot be expected to win the nomination, with his Socialist connections being harmful, due to many Americans misunderstanding the term, and being told it is harmful and dangerous.

But the question arises about Gore and Kerry, that they have both been out of the Presidential game for a very long time, with Gore out 16 years and having no public office since his loss in 2000, despite having won the popular vote over George W. Bush; and Kerry, having served in the Senate after his defeat, until he became Secretary of State after Hillary Clinton left the State Department in 2013, but being out of the Presidential race for 12 years by 2016.

So history is a guide here.

It turns out four Presidential candidates had been out of the Presidential field for very long times, as follows:

Henry Clay lost the Presidential race in 1824, and then 8 years later in 1832, he was nominated again. Then 12 years later, in 1844, he was nominated for the third and last time. Twelve years is a long time!

Abraham Lincoln last held public office in 1848, when he left the House of Representatives after one 2 year term. But then, 12 years later, he ran for President and won!

Franklin D. Roosevelt ran for Vice President in 1920 and lost, and then was sidelined by polio, not running again for public office until 8 years later, when he won the Governorship of New York in 1928. Four years later, and 12 years after losing the Vice Presidency, he won the Presidency in 1932!

Finally, Richard Nixon lost the Presidency in 1960 and lost, then ran for California Governor in 1962 and lost, and yet came back 6 years later, after 8 years out of office, and yet won the Presidential Election of 1968!

Are Al Gore and John Kerry as long shots as Clay, Lincoln, FDR, and Nixon were?

That is the issue to confront, and this author would say that while both of them seem “long shots”, we have had other “long shots”, who few thought had a chance to win the Presidency, and in recent times yet—John F. Kennedy (Catholic issue) in 1960; Jimmy Carter (Southern issue) in 1976; Bill Clinton (Sex Scandal issue) in 1992; and Barack Obama (Race issue) in 2008!

So literally, anything is possible in American Presidential politics!

Donald Trump Presidential Candidacy Creates Possible Democratic Party Opportunity For Majorities In Both Houses Of Congress In 2016 Election!

Donald Trump is a nightmare for the Republican Party, and it is now a strong possibility that his involvement in the 2016 Presidential campaign will help the opposition Democrats to gain control of both houses of Congress in the next election.

The Democrats have lost seats steadily since they lost the majority in the 2010 Midterm Elections, first losing the House of Representatives in 2010, and then the US Senate in 2014.

The Senate is already in play, as 24 seats of Republicans are up in 2016, very different dynamics than in 2014, when the Democrats had the bulk of the seats to defend, and lost nine seats. A gain of four or five is all that is needed to gain control, depending on whether the Democrats win the White House, which right now is extremely likely, due to the vast edge in the Electoral College.

The House of Representatives is much tougher, with a need to gain 30 seats by the Democrats, but with a split and divided Republican Party, with 17 candidates for President, and Donald Trump being like a bull in a China shop, the Republicans could lose that many seats, particularly if Trump ends up running as a third party or independent candidate in the fall of 2016.

It would be really powerful if the Democrats won the White House, and both houses of Congress, insuring a progressive four years to follow up on the progressive changes under President Barack Obama.

After years of gridlock and stalemate, the Obama legacy could be cemented by Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders or Martin O’Malley, with the likelihood of Clinton winning still seen as almost certain. But any of these four could be a President who could have real success, possibly with the indirect assistance of Donald Trump!

Could We Have Four Way Race For President, As In 1860, 1912, and 1948?

With the American political system in turmoil right now, and Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders getting most of the attention, and Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton, the so called “Establishment” candidates getting heavy criticism from within and outside their party structures, one has to wonder if it is possible we might have a four way race for President, with any result possible!

Certainly, either the Republican or the Democratic nominee would win the election, but it might lead to a situation where that winning nominee only gets as low as Abraham Lincoln gained in 1806 (39.5 percent) or as Woodrow Wilson gained in 1912 (42 percent) of the entire vote. Or the winner could gain as much as Harry Truman gained in 1948 (49.5 percent).

It all depends on how strong the third and fourth party candidates would be, with all four candidates in 1860 gaining double digit support; three of the four candidates in 1912 gaining double digit support; and only the two major party candidates in 1948 gaining double digit support.

Right now, if Donald Trump rain as a third party candidate, it would seem he would gain double digit support, while if Bernie Sanders ran, it seems more likely that he would gain medium single digit support.

The 1948 situation, where the third and fourth party candidates only gained about two percent each of the popular vote seems unlikely, but even in that year, one of those candidates (Strom Thurmond) gained four states and the second highest number of electoral votes up to that time for a third party candidate

The 1912 situation, with two candidates having results in the 20s and the winner 42 percent seems more likely in 2016, with the fourth candidate gaining about the six percent that Socialist Eugene Debs gained in 1912, with Bernie Sanders likely that individual.

The 1860 situation, with all four candidates being double digit, and the winner being under 40 percent could also happen, but still the two major party candidates would win the bulk of the electoral votes, and one would win the Presidency.

With the likelihood that Hillary Clinton (the presumed Democratic nominee) will be able to keep the loyalty of a higher percentage of her party than Jeb Bush would have in the Republican Party; and with Donald Trump likely to gain more total public support than Bernie Sanders, we would have the result being Hillary Clinton winning, and the potential for Donald Trump to beat out Jeb Bush or some other Republican for second place in popular votes and electoral votes, making the 2016 GOP Presidential nominee only the second major party nominee (after William Howard Taft in 1912) to end up third rather than second in the final election results!

The Likely Scenario For 2016: A Repeat Of 1992!

In 1992, billionaire Ross Perot came along, spent $62 million of his own fortune, ran on a third party line, and received 19 percent of the vote, helping to destroy the second term bid of George H. W. Bush, and electing Bill Clinton to the White House.

Now 24 years later, it is more and more likely that Donald Trump, a billionaire, willing to spend unlimited money, is likely to break from the Republican Party when he is unable to win the Presidential nomination, and run on a third party line and win about that same percentage of the vote!

In so doing, he will help elect the Democratic nominee, likely Hillary Clinton, to the White House.

What an irony if both Clintons win the Presidency due to a split in the Republican Party spurred by an ornery billionaire!

This scenario is looking more likely by the day!

Bernie Sanders Takes Off: Is This Barack Obama in 2008 Or Howard Dean In 2004?

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has become the sensation of American politics, and his numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire are gaining, while Hillary Clinton’s numbers are declining.

Bernie has gained large crowds, the largest of the 2016 campaign, in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, Vermont, and Maine, among other places. People are enthusiastic over him. He has a great amount of appeal for his genuineness and principles.

He has also gained $15 million in contributions from 250,000 individual contributors, nothing as compared to Hillary Clinton’s $45 million, an all time record for a three month period.

He needs to gain support from the African American community, a group he has little appeal with at this point of time, since they strongly favor Hillary.

Also, women seem to want Hillary overwhelmingly.

So to say that he can go all the way to the nomination and election in 2016 is a tall order.

Can a Jewish guy from Brooklyn, who would be 75 years old on Inauguration Day, and is a democratic Socialist, who allies with the Democrats, win the nation?

Is he Barack Obama or is he Howard Dean, fellow Vermonter who was causing a sensation in 2003, and then flopped completely?

Much more likely he is Dean, not Obama!

Donald Trump The Achilles Heel Of The Republican Party: A Nightmare Scenario In The Making

Donald Trump has become the center of attention over his racist, nativist remarks about Mexicans and Mexican Americans, and he has become the Achilles Heel of the Republican Party.

If they could, Republicans would love to kick Trump out of the race, but they cannot do that legally.

All they can do is criticize and attack him, but so far, they have been reluctant to stir up Trump’s temper, as Trump uncontrolled is a scary thing.

Trump is like a bull in a China shop, and he will be the center of attention in the first Republican debate, sponsored by Fox News Channel.

Only ten candidates, not 16, will be allowed on the debate stage, meaning it is likely that such leading party figures as John Kasich of Ohio, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and Bobby Jindal of Louisiana will not be there, even though the first debate will be in Ohio, and John Kasich, its Governor, and one of the more solid candidates, should be there!

Trump has no limits in his attacks on fellow Republicans, and has started it already, and it will be, certainly, an entertaining event.

The fact that Trump is second in polls is shocking, but not surprising, as it is easy to find at least 12-15 percent of the American people who are clueless about politics, or have a mean spirit which Trump well represents.

The rhetoric will be flying at that first debate and in future debates, and it will be good theater, but not good for the nation, as to imagine Trump being the GOP nominee is a nightmare scenario.

But what is more likely, as attacks mount on Trump, and as he gets more frustrated and furious, that he could mount a third party challenge to both the Republicans and the Democrats.

If that happens, the Republicans will suffer a defeat similar to Ross Perot’s effect on George H. W. Bush in 1992, and potentially similar to Theodore Roosevelt’s effect on William Howard Taft in 1912!

It would be extremely ironic if Hillary Clinton benefited from this, as her husband, Bill Clinton, did so in 1992!