Hillary Clinton

Final Projection On Presidential Election Of 2020

On April 30, I did an early projection on the Presidential Election of 2020.

Six months later to the day, and after having gone through so much pain and suffering as a nation, with a President who is totally uncaring and incompetent, as well as corrupt and despicable in personality and policies for the past four years, I look forward to a massive landslide victory of Joe Biden. He is a very decent, compassionate man who can bring us together after the four year nightmare we have experienced.

My estimate is based on my knowledge and perception of what has been going on politically in this nation, and my historical perspective over a half century of teaching, writing, publishing and speaking.

The judgment of what will happen has been slightly changed, but not by much.

So let’s make it clear that I fully expect Joe Biden to win a massive landslide, with about 54-55 percent of the national popular vote to Donald Trump’s 43 percent, less than he gained in 2016.

The Electoral College will end up, I believe, as 413-125, and 30 states for Biden and 20 states for Trump.

One might be surprised that Trump would win 20 states and ONLY get 125 electoral votes, but that is so because none of the 20 states has a large population, with only Tennessee and Indiana having 11 electoral votes each, and four small rural states (North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Alaska) having a minimum 3 electoral votes each.

So Trump wins rural America, which is dying more every decade as young people leave for better opportunities, and that means these states, heavily consisting of poor people, white and minority, has no long range future, and will be further trivialized in future decades. Only Mormon Utah is growing rapidly in population, and only a few medium sized cities are in these states, including St Louis and Kansas City in Missouri; Nashville and Memphis in Tennessee,: New Orleans in Louisiana; Indianapolis in Indiana; and Salt Lake City in Utah. One can believe that over time, some of these 20 states will turn Blue and give up on the Republican Party, if they have any sense of the future, and this might happen over time with Missouri and Tennessee.

So my estimate is that Joe Biden easily wins the Electoral College, simply by winning the 20 Hillary Clinton states in 2016, and adding the three Midwestern states she lost by very small margins—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and also winning the 2nd Congressional District of Omaha, Nebraska, for a total of 279 electoral votes. That is all that is needed, but it seems highly likely that Joe Biden will also win the Southern states of North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Texas, as well as win the Midwestern states of Ohio and Iowa, and add the Southwestern state of Arizona, adding up to 413 electoral votes from 30 states.

We will see how accurate this blogger and author is, but a reminder that in 2008, I was one electoral vote off, thinking Barack Obama would win Missouri (10 electoral votes) and lose Indiana (11 electoral votes), and just the opposite happened.

And in 2012, this author and blogger was totally accurate on the Electoral College, so I hope I am proved correct in 2020.

But the most important point is that IF Biden just wins 23 states, he will become the 46th President of the United States!

Fascinating Electoral Map Of Americans 18-40 Shows Bright Future For Democrats, Gloom For Republicans!

The Atlantic Magazine has just published an electoral map based solely on American expected voters ages 18-40, known as Millennials (born 1980-1996) and Generation Z (1997-2012) with those born from 1997-2002 able to vote in the Presidential Election of 2020!

It is astounding in detail, as if it pans out and is true, it means a bright future for Democrats, and gloom for Republicans!

According to this electoral map, Joe Biden has 295 electoral votes locked up among those under 40; and 63 more likely; and 70 less likely but favored, for a grand total of 428 electoral votes!

Donald Trump has 49 electoral votes insured, with 44 other electoral votes highly likely, and 17 electoral votes undecided, so it would be a grand total of 110 electoral votes, or 93 insured, with Utah and Indiana questionable.

That last fact is shocking, as one would think Utah would be insured Republican, and Indiana as well, particularly with Vice President Mike Pence being from the Hoosier State.

The Biden states have dark blue for such states as Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, all four states having gone for Trump in 2016.

Interestingly, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, and Arizona are all medium blue, making them likely strongly Democratic by lesser amounts now and in the future, and all Trump states in 2016. Additionally, Virginia, which voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 is also medium blue.

Georgia, Texas, Montana, and imagine this, Alaska are all light blue, a good sign for the future as well! But so is Missouri, which few see as going back to the Democrats, after having lost their status as a “reliable” state to be with the winner, starting in 2008 and continuing through 2016. As much as the first two states listed are seen as long shots, the last three are even more so, in theory!

Looking at the Trump states, 15 in total, we have West Virginia, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Oklahoma as strongest, while South Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana, North Dakota, Kansas, Wyoming and Idaho are weaker in support among young people.

So, in conclusion, 33 states for Biden, 15 for Trump, and 2 probably Trump but not certain, mirroring what seems to make sense for the national election, with the only real surprises being Alaska and Missouri, and possibly Indiana and Utah, in the estimate of this scholar and blogger!

The Corruption Of The Supreme Court, With Five Appointees By Presidents Who Lost The Popular Vote!

With the likelihood that Amy Coney Barrett will be successfully confirmed to be the replacement of Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg on the Supreme Court, we are about to have a Court with five appointees by Presidents who lost the national popular vote, but still won the Electoral College.

George W. Bush lost the national popular vote to Vice President Al Gore in 2000 by a 540,000 margin, but was able to select Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Samuel Alito in 2005 and 2006.

And now Donald Trump, who lost the national popular vote to Hillary Clinton in 2016, by a 2.85 million margin, has been able to select Associate Justices Neil Gorsuch in 2017, Brett Kavanaugh in 2018, and now Amy Comey Barrett in 2020.

And even more infuriating is that three of these five appointees helped the George W. Bush campaign in the Bush V Gore Supreme Court case, assisting him winning the case in a majority Republican selected Court in December 2000–specifically, John Roberts, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Comey Barrett!

And the right wing Federalist Society, which has been on a 40 year campaign to make the federal court system move to the extreme right on such issues as health care, abortion, gay marriage, gun rights, so called freedom of religion, deregulation of the economy and the environment, suppression of voting rights and labor rights, has fully succeeded in its campaign to undermine American democracy and a sense of humanity!

So when one complains from the right side of the political spectrum at the “horror” of Democrats “packing the Court” if they were to add seats to the Supreme Court, one has to say the level of hypocrisy is enormous, when that has been the commitment for four decades of the Right in American politics.

And who can say that if the Republicans were to win control of both houses of Congress and the Presidency, that they would not be willing to promote “packing of the Court’, so that they could add two to four more seats to the Supreme Court, and make the Court not just the 6-3 margin it will now be, but possibly 8-3 or 10-3, if two to four seats were to be added!

And one more point: Two of the six member Republican majority have had sexual misconduct hanging over their heads, although it has not affected their tenure on the Court, speaking specifically of Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh. So the ethical and moral standing of the Court has been damaged irrevocably!

But do the conservatives and the Federalist Society care about this? Not one iota!

Donald Trump Demonstrates Mental Instability And Lunacy, Presenting Issue Of 25th Amendment

The mental health and condition of President Donald Trump is deteriorating rapidly, and he appears more than ever to be displaying mental instability and lunacy, which is bringing up the issue of the 25th Amendment possibly being considered for use.

Trump has been on Twitter during his COVID 19 illness, attacking his own cabinet members, including Attorney General William Barr and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, along with FBI head Christopher Wray.

He is talking about arresting former President Barack Obama; his opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden, who is miles ahead of him in all polls; his former opponent, Hillary Clinton; Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who was the subject of a kidnap plot by right wing fanatics; and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, who is calling for Congressional legislation on removal of the President as a threat to national security and safety.

He has also termed Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Kamala Harris as a Communist, endangering her life with extremists by labeling her with such a ridiculous label, reminiscent of former Wisconsin Senator Joseph McCarthy’s Communist “witch hunt” in the 1950s. This will increase the number of threats and dangers to Harris, as she runs for Vice President, and when she is Vice President, a heartbeat away from the Presidency. It will also affect her husband and his two children, who are Jewish. There is a tone of racism in the attack on Harris, as she is of mixed race, with a Jamaican father and Asian Indian mother, a tactic used by the right wing against former President Barack Obama, with his Kenyan African father and his white mother.

As we are down to 25 days until Election Day, and with Trump still apparently affected by powerful steroid drugs, the nation sits on the precipice of the danger of bloodshed and violence, and it seems necessary for powerful leaders in the government to take responsible action to protect the nation from such threat presented by the 45th President of the United States!

Tonight’s First Presidential Debate: The Middle Class Guy Vs The Phony Billionaire And Bully

Former Vice President Joe Biden enters tonight’s first Presidential debate in Cleveland against President Donald Trump in a position of strength. He is far ahead in most state polls, including in the Midwest where Hillary Clinton lost the election in 2016.

Biden is the middle class guy who has had struggles and tragedies in his life, much like the vast majority of Americans. He possesses naturally great compassion, empathy, decency, and tons of government experience as US Senator for 36 years and as one of the two best Vice Presidents in American history, alongside Walter Mondale.

Biden comes in with public opinion polls showing great strength for him among college educated voters of both genders; suburban women; African Americans; Latinos except for Cubans; Asian Americans; Jews; Social Justice Catholics; mainline Protestants; moderates; Independents; young voters; and a small sliver of Trump voters in 2016 who realize Donald Trump is a phony billionaire and bully!

Putting Biden in the Oval Office will give us a President with more background knowledge and expertise than any President when he entered the Presidency—more than Lyndon B. Johnson or George H. W. Bush.

Biden knows world leaders and can restore US foreign policy so that foreign allies can against trust our government.

Biden can restore much of the damage done to our domestic infrastructure and our government agencies that are so necessary to continue the advancements of the New Deal, Great Society, and the later accomplishments of Presidents of both parties from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama!

We will have a President who does not lie 20,000 times in three and a half years;

who will not ignore medicine and science;

who will pay his fair share of taxes;

who will not cheat on his wife with other women;

who will pick judges who understand that originalism is the wrong approach to law;

who will work to cross the aisle when possible, instead of constant insults and bullying of opponents and critics;

who will have a Vice President, Kamala Harris, who gives us confidence should there ever be an emergency;

who will restore faith in our basic values of democracy and freedom;

who will bring back honor and decency to the Oval Office;

and who will support total exposure of all crimes committed by the present incumbent of the White House!

If Donald Trump Loses Just 4 Percent Of Republican Voters, He Loses Election Massively!

Donald Trump is losing more than four percent of Republican voters, according to public opinion polls, who seem mostly to be cultish like, willing to accept any Trump outrage as acceptable.

But the revelation that Trump has paid no federal taxes for 10 of the last 15 years through 2017, and only paid $750 each year of 2016 and 2017, is enough to turn a small sliver of Republicans, who still have a brain and reasoning power, against Trump!

After all, they and the rest of us, except the very wealthy, DO pay federal taxes, so why should Donald Trump NOT pay his fair share of taxes?

Trump also has exploited the federal budget with all of the costs of all his golfing adventures, and charging everyone who goes to any of his Trump hotels, including Vice President Mike Pence and others, higher rates, paid at federal budget expense. And when his children travel and spend, it is all on the rest of us taxpayers!

So statistics indicate that Trump has no chance to win simply by losing a small percentage of Republican voters, which now seems certain!

Beyond the small sliver of Republicans who have a brain and ethics, also consider that Joe Biden’s lead among women is nearly double that of Hillary Clinton in 2016, and that similar statistics hold for independents and moderates for Biden as compared to Clinton in 2016.

And third parties will not take nearly 6 percent of the vote and help Trump this time around, but rather no more than 2-3 percent at most.

Joe Biden will go into Tuesday night’s debate with a tremendous edge, and all he needs to do is expose the lies, the danger, and the incompetence of Donald Trump.

Also, realize that Trump is losing MORE former Republican officeholders and cabinet and military personnel who served under Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush, as well as those who worked for the Presidential campaigns of Bob Dole, John McCain, and Mitt Romney!

And many conservative commentators, those NOT connected to Fox News Channel, or other further right wing media, also long have condemned Trump, and are engaged in working to retire him, and bring him to justice!

So watch as Donald Trump deteriorates before our eyes in the next month, and yet threatens American democracy, while the military has made it clear that they will not back any undemocratic moves by the Fascist in the White House!

Memo To American Jews Who Support Trump: You Are Overlooking History And Are Being Delusional!

This author and blogger is proud of his Jewish heritage, and pleased that two out of three American Jews support the Democratic Party, which historically, since Franklin D. Roosevelt, stands for the basic values that all decent American Jews believe in: Tolerance, open mindedness, compassion, empathy, decency, social justice!

That does not mean that there have never been Republicans historically who one could find appealing, and even, at times, vote for and support.

But for any American Jew to support Donald Trump, who is a clear cut Fascist with strong tendencies toward Adolf Hitler, not just Benito Mussolini, is shocking beyond belief!

If one voted for Donald Trump as an “outsider” amid thoughts that a businessman with no government experience was worthy of being given a shot at leadership, and had unexplained hatred toward Hillary Clinton in 2016 to motivate you, that is one thing.

But after four years of Donald Trump, not as an outsider, but as the 45th President, and having witnessed what he has wrought, it is beyond understanding why any American Jew would vote for Trump again!

Some would say, oh the economy was going great under Trump, when the economy was already going great under Barack Obama, who took us from the Great Recession to the greatest economic recovery that we have seen in American history, including even Franklin D. Roosevelt before World War II came along!

All that Trump did is continue an economic recovery already in effect for a number of years. And that economic recovery was very uneven, with his push for a massive tax cut for the top one to two percent, which added to the national debt, and now threatens Social Security and Medicare! And 40 percent of the nation cannot afford an emergency $400 expense!

Some would say, oh Trump has done so much for Israel, in moving ahead to recognize Jerusalem as their capital; accept Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights from Syria; and promote diplomatic and other ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Israel and Bahrain, which only deepen the conflict over the future of Israel and the Palestinians. Realize that the leaders of those Arab nations are autocrats, corrupt to the core, and have no ethical basis at all toward their own population.

Any intelligent American Jew KNOWS that this is just a ploy for Benjamin Netanyahu to hold off accountability for his corruption, which has led to trial in Israel. It is also simply a way to manipulate that portion of American Jewry that Trump counts upon to help him win reelection, who think that whatever the Israeli government wants, should be supported by the United States.

But this ignores the fact that Barack Obama gave more aid and defense support to Israel through his promotion of the IRON DOME missile system, despite Netanyahu’s hostile attitude toward him, and his collaborating with Republicans on Capitol Hill, including Speaker of the House John Boehner against Obama!

But Donald Trump meanwhile consorts with antisemites and white supremacists, as at Charlottesville in 2017, but also other actions and utterances that incite violence against anyone who disagrees with his destruction of the US Constitution and rule of law! And remember that Richard Spencer, David Duke, and other extremist right wing antisemites love Donald Trump!

Donald Trump is a racist big time, if anyone looks at his history. He promoted racial discrimination in his Queens New York properties, and is infamous for his constant attack on “the Central Park Five”, five young minority men, accused of rape and assault, who he campaigned against, and has refused to admit he was wrong and apologize, when they were shown to be innocent and released after many years.

Donald Trump is a nativist, who has no issue with caging children at the border, a reminder of the early concentration camps which imprisoned Jews and other people, before the extermination concept was formulated in Nazi Germany!

He promotes anti immigrant hysteria, even though his mother was an immigrant, and two of his three wives were immigrants. And despite his close association with Muslim authoritarians, such as Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, he promotes Islamophobia, showing what a total demagogue and hypocrite he is, and his constant attacks on the few Muslim members of Congress!

Donald Trump is also a misogynist, who has abused dozens of women personally, and associates with others who have done the same, and has the gall to brag about it, but also has refused to provide evidence when charges are brought against him. He makes Bill Clinton look like a “choir boy” by comparison!

Donald Trump promotes hatred in his rallies, making people laugh as he ridicules opponents and makes fun of journalists who have been wounded by rubber bullets or tear gas, as he believes all media and all political opponents should be in prison! No other President has ever conducted himself in such a despicable manner! He is still pursuing his goal of putting Hillary Clinton, the Obamas, and Joe Biden in prison, all signs of an authoritarian demagogue!

Donald Trump rejects science, and is responsible for the mass loss of life in the COVID 19 Pandemic, and encourages his followers NOT to wear masks or practice social distancing, including at his rallies. At the same time, he thinks of his followers as “disgusting”, and calls veterans who have died in wars “suckers” and “losers”!

One might say that Donald Trump has a Jewish son in law, Jared Kushner; a Jewish Secretary of the Treasury, Steve Mnuchin; and a key Jewish adviser, Stephen Miller; along with others who work for him who are Jewish. But these Jews represent an extremely privileged class, who put their basic Jewish values aside for the gaining of power and obscene wealth!

Donald Trump has lied more than 20,000 times in office, and has had, by far, the most corrupt administration and number of corrupt appointees ever seen in any Presidency, so how can any respectable American Jew support this?

If Donald Trump is reelected, he will become ever more a threat to the basic Jewish values that matter, and any American Jew who contributes to that horror, will go down in history, condemned for their inaction when they could have taken steps to end the nightmare of an American version of Benito Mussolini at the least, and god forbid, Adolf Hitler at the most!

Anarchy, Chaos, Mayhem: The Donald Trump Presidency!

The best description of the Donald Trump Presidency is that it is a time of anarchy, chaos, mayhem!

The man in office is dangerous, unpredictable, and seems certifiably crazy, and yet the Cabinet and Vice President Mike Pence have gone along with his insanity, and are complicit in his crimes against humanity!

The nightmare is not over, as one cannot be sure that Trump will not find an illegal, unethical manner, with foreign collusion and voter suppression methods, to win a second term, although that seems highly unlikely, more than ever.

But the crisis if Trump loses, and refuses to concede or leave office, then we will have a situation that has never occurred before, as in every close contest and even challenge on the Presidency, including 1876, 2000, and 2016, the result was accepted, even if grudgingly.

But Donald Trump is not Samuel Tilden, Al Gore, or Hillary Clinton, and is sure to create anarchy, chaos, and mayhem even to the last minute of the term, sadly!

Will Ohio Go Against The National Trend In 2020?

The state of Ohio has long been seen as a crucial state, and no Republican has been elected President without winning Ohio, including Donald Trump in 2016.

So only Gerald Ford has been a Republican President and lost Ohio, when he ran for a full term against Jimmy Carter in 1976. Once we knew that Carter had won Ohio, it was clear Ford would not have a full term, after succeeding the resigned Richard Nixon in 1974.

When one looks at party history since the Republican Party was founded in 1854, we find only five elections in which the Republican candidate lost Ohio to a Democrat, as follows:

John C. Fremont 1856 lost to James Buchanan

James G. Blaine 1884 lost to Grover Cleveland

President Benjamin Harrison 1892 lost to former President Grover Cleveland

Thomas E. Dewey 1944 lost to President Franklin D. Roosevelt

Richard Nixon 1960 lost to John F. Kennedy

So only three Democratic Presidents have won the White House without winning Ohio–James Buchanan in 1856, Grover Cleveland in 1884, and John F. Kennedy in 1960, with Cleveland second time and FDR fourth time winning a return to the White House without winning Ohio.

Right now, polls show Donald Trump winning Ohio by 5 points instead of the 8 point lead he had over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

So if polls hold up, Joe Biden will be the fourth Democrat to become President without Ohio, only the sixth time in 166 years, and the first time since 1960.

Ohio has been steadily losing electoral votes, as the balance of population has moved South and West, and will likely lose one electoral vote in 2024 and 2028, going down from 18 to 17, so will have less impact politically in the future!

Nebraska District 2 And Maine District 2 Could Decide Presidential Election Of 2020? Really? Yes!

Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that allow a split electoral vote, with Nebraska having 5 electoral votes and Maine having 4 electoral votes.

But in 2008, Barack Obama won one electoral vote in Nebraska, while the state majority went Republican.

And in 2016, Donald Trump won one electoral vote in Maine, while the state majority went Democratic.

Assuming Joe Biden won back just two Trump states from 2016–Pennsylvania and Michigan, but failed to win back Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, and Florida, other Obama states in 2012 lost by Hillary Clinton in 2016, the following possible scenarios could occur!

We would go from 306 for Trump and subtract 20 for Pennsylvania and 16 for Michigan, and Biden would win with exactly 270 electoral votes!

But if the one Maine district stayed with Trump, the electoral vote would be a tie, 269-269, and the House of Representatives would choose the President, as they did in 1800 and 1824, with each state having one vote based on the majority of either party holding Congressional seats in each state.

But the 269-269 vote could be overcome if the one Nebraska district switched to support of Biden, as it did for Obama in 2008, and Biden would have 270 electoral votes!

Right now 26 states have Republican majority delegations, but that could change, if the Democrats were able to win two more states with a majority delegation of their party.

Of course, seven states only have one House member, so that person alone determines the state vote in those seven states.

Also, if we ended up with 25 states having a Republican and 25 having Democratic majority delegations, then there would be a massive constitutional crisis with the tie that would exist!

We could have Inauguration Day approach, and no certainty that either Joe Biden or Donald Trump would be declared the winner.

So then, Nancy Pelosi, assuming the House of Representatives stayed in Democratic hands, would become Acting President until, somehow, the deadlock was broken!