Hillary Clinton

The Midterm Elections: Far From Settled Results This Early!

After the Democratic Party started to panic over predictions of the likelihood of a debacle this coming November, it became clear that it is far from certain that the Senate will be lost, although one can certainly concede the loss of seats, and the fact that the change in House seats might be a few, but not a dramatic difference! In fact, with the reality of total gridlock in the House, and the worst legislative record under Speaker John Boehner in modern history, the Democrats might gain a few seats, although not likely to have a majority, as now projected.

The Republican Party needs to gain 6 seats in the Senate to have control, and while there are many Democratic seats up, and a lot of Democrats are retiring, that is still not a sign of GOP success, as they are very good at self destruction, and are on that road again.

The Tea Party Movement is certain to cause the loss of some traditional conservatives in the Senate, and to increase the chances of defeating a few GOP senators, to overcome the fact that there are more Democratic seats in contention.

And again, even if both houses are Republican, by 2016, the Senate is sure to be won back, and the House might go Democratic with a strong Presidential candidate heading the ticket, such as Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden!

The long term prognosis for the Republican Party is gloomy, while the long term prognosis for the Democrats is excellent!

Jeb Bush Suddenly Emerges As GOP Front Runner For 2016!

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has suddenly emerged as the theoretical front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2016, after a visit to Las Vegas and kissing the ring of billionaire Sheldon Adelson.

Other present time Governors–Chris Christie, Scott Walker, John Kasich—also saw Adelson, who is willing to spend tens of millions of dollars to back a Republican who will support his causes, including strong support of Israel, and working to overcome the Barack Obama Administration initiatives in many areas of domestic policy.

Jeb Bush has the advantage that he might draw support from a portion of the Hispanic-Latino community, as well as African Americans, and women. He is a favorite of the Establishment Republicans on Wall Street, who are terrified at the horrible Tea Party activists, such as Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio.

But the fact that his brother was unpopular, and in many ways, disastrous, works against Bush, and really, many might say, three Bushes is a bit much!

Once he would actually announce, his record as Florida Governor will be dissected, and while there are some good points one can make about Jeb, he was not universally popular when governor of the Sunshine State!

His own mother, Barbara Bush, has advised against running, and Bush has been out of office for ten years by 2016, making him longer out of office than any Presidential nominee who held an elective office, since Abraham Lincoln, who was out of office for twelve years, when he ran for President in 1860.

Much more could be said about the pluses and minuses of Jeb Bush as a Presidential candidate, and particularly against Hillary Clinton. There is time for that if Jeb actually announces. Could he, for instance, really win the caucuses and primaries in a party that is so right wing now? Does the nation really want a Bush and a Clinton in the same election, with Bushes going back to the 1980s, and Clintons to the 1990s, when now we are in the mid 2010′s?

That discussion can wait until he decides to run, and do not bet on that occurring!

The Vice Presidency: Not Fertile Ground For Election To The Presidency!

The office of the Vice Presidency has NOT, historically, been a place that promotes elevation to the Presidency by election.

We have had 14 Vice Presidents become President, but only five by election–John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Martin Van Buren, Richard Nixon (eight years later), and George H. W. Bush.

Until the last half century, the thought of a Vice President being the nominee for President in the next or future terms was unthinkable, and only five Vice Presidents have actually been the nominee of a party for President, other than the five mentioned above who won the Presidency, and two of them actually ran on a third party platform.

The five Vice Presidents who ran for President and lost are:

John C. Breckinridge (Southern Democrats 1860)
Henry A. Wallace (Progressive Party 1948)
Hubert Humphrey (Democrats 1968)
Walter Mondale (Democrats 1984)
Al Gore (Democrats 2000)

So these bad odds make it even tougher for Vice President Joe Biden, as he plans a campaign to run for President, with Hillary Clinton standing in his way!

March Of Second Year Of Presidential Term Not Good Time To Assume Presidential Nominees For Next Term, Proved By History!

As March 2014 ends, Hillary Clinton is the runaway favorite for the Democratic Presidential nomination, which is comforting to her, but going by history, no guarantee of her nomination in the summer of 2016.

Witness the following facts:

Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts was the front runner in polls for 1976, 1980, and 1984, in March 1974, March 1978, and March 1982.

Senator Gary Hart of Colorado was the front runner in polls for 1988, in March 1986.

Governor Mario Cuomo of New York was the front runner in polls for 1992, in March 1990.

Former Vice President Al Gore was the front runner in polls for 2004, in March 2002.

Senator Hillary Clinton of New York was the front runner in polls for 2008, in March 2006.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Guiliani was the front runner in polls for 2008, in March 2006.

Did anyone ever know of a President Ted Kennedy, a President Gary Hart, a President Mario Cuomo, a President Al Gore (other than the contested Election Of 2000), a President Hillary Clinton for the past five years, or a President Rudy Guiliani?

Who was seriously thinking of Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, or Barack Obama in 1974 or 1990 or 2006? And who was seriously thinking of Michael Dukakis in 1986 or John Kerry in 2002? The answer is that none of the top five in polling in all these different March second year of the term polls were these five listed in this paragraph, including the last three Democratic Presidents!

So the game of Presidential candidacy is far from resolved at this early point of the battle for the next Presidential nominations in both parties!

Four Years Of ObamaCare: Over 5 Million SIgned Up, And Now Irreversible Law!

It is now four years since ObamaCare, the Affordable Care Act, became law, and over 5 million people have signed up since October 1 of last year, despite the flawed beginnings of the website.

ObamaCare is here to stay, but will certainly need adjustments and tweaking as it grows further, just like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicare Part D needed to make such changes.

The Republican Party has attempted to end ObamaCare by over 50 votes in the House of Representatives, but it has been for naught, since the Senate is presently Democratic.

But even if the Republicans were to win the Senate and keep the House in the 2014 midterm elections, ObamaCare will not end, as President Obama has the power of the veto, and there is no chance that a two thirds override of a Presidential veto could ever occur.

So the GOP is looking ahead to their vision of winning both houses of Congress AND the Presidency in 2016, but their chances of that occurring are miniscule to zero, as ONLY if they were to nominate Jon Huntsman, would there be even a chance of defeating Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden or any other Democrat, with the Electoral College heavily tilted in favor of the Democratic nominee, with the Republicans refusing to change their tune in their attitudes towards women, Latinos, African Americans, labor, the poor, the young, and the elderly.

The GOP is self destructive, and to imagine that they would be willing to repeal all aspects of ObamaCare, taking away health care from millions, and denying senior citizens the closing of the “donut hole” on prescriptions; the end of children being covered under their parents’ plans until age 26; the end of coverage for people with pre-existing conditions and no more lifetime coverage; and many other benefits that have already helped many people who never had health care coverage before ObamaCare, is truly a sign that they do not give a damn about the health of the American people.

This is particularly so with the fact that ObamaCare is far less advanced than Hillary Care was in the 1990s, when Republicans fought it and defeated it in 1994, with the Heritage Foundation–Bob Dole-Newt Gingrich Republican plan which, in many details, became RomneyCare in Massachusetts in 2006, and then was suddenly no longer acceptable once Barack Obama moved to adopt it as a compromise from the concept of Medicare For All or the “public option”, both more “radical”, while ObamaCare allows private health care companies to control the market place.

The GOP has lost all credibility, and in the long run, if not the short run, when the American people finally “get it”, what that party is doing, they will suffer electorally in a massive way!

New Reality: Foreign Policy Will Matter More Than ObamaCare In 2016 Presidential Election!

It is becoming clear, as a result of recent events involving Russia and Ukraine, that the foreign policy issue will matter more in the Presidential Election of 2016 than domestic policy, including ObamaCare.

This is NOT what many progressives and liberals would prefer, as there are many domestic problems that need attention on the agenda, and President Barack Obama has been trying to deal with many of these issues, despite obstructionism and stalemate caused by the Republican control of the House of Representatives.

But national security and defense, and the possibility of armed conflict in Europe, related to NATO and the European Union, may force the hand of President Obama and his successor to focus more on foreign policy in the next Presidential term of office.

In a way, it reminds us of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1940, able to run for a third term, and seen as the only legitimate person to be our President in the midst of an international crisis, the victory of the Axis Powers in Europe and Asia, at that time. Alternative possible candidates, such as Senator Robert Taft of Ohio, Senator Arthur Vandenberg of Michigan, Vice President John Nance Garner of Texas, and Senator Burton Wheeler of Montana, were all isolationists, the wrong viewpoint at the time. When Wendell Willkie came along as a surprise opponent of FDR, it was clear that on foreign policy, they had an agreement, which was good for the nation as it faced the likelihood of engagement in World War II.

Now, of course, an experienced and wise President in foreign policy, not rushing into conflict, and using his diplomatic skills, is ineligible to be President for another term, so it becomes extremely important that the proper person be elected to succeed Barack Obama.

When one looks at the cast of characters on the Republican side, and the alternatives on the Democratic side, it is clear that ONLY three potential future Presidents meet the need for appropriate foreign policy experience in a delicate and dangerous time, as we may now be entering. Not only is there the threat of war in Europe over Ukraine or other Russian attempt at advancement west, but also the looming threat of Iran and North Korea, as well as the Syrian Civil War and its effect on the entire Middle East, and the growing influence of China.

So reality tells us ONLY Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Jon Huntsman fit the bill to be our Commander in Chief, based on their experiences, expertise, and skills!

There are other Democrats who have positive aspects, but do NOT have the diplomatic experience of Clinton, Biden and Huntsman.

On the GOP side, it is literally horrifying to imagine a Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Bobby Jindal, Mike Huckabee, or anyone else as Commander in Chief, with many of them purely ignorant, or bullyish, or extreme in their rhetoric, or in the case of Rand Paul, a flaming isolationist! Only Jeb Bush, conceivably, due to his intelligence and connection to his dad, but not his brother, MIGHT be otherwise acceptable, but not with the same sense of confidence in Clinton, Biden and Huntsman!

So the best we can hope for is a Clinton-Huntsman or Biden-Huntsman race for the security and safety of our nation, because we would know that any one of them could perform well as our 45th President, and do the best we can hope for in the area of foreign policy!

The Likelihood Of An Obama Impeachment Grows, But It Will Not Lead To Removal From The Presidency!

With the growing possibility that the Republicans MIGHT win control of the US Senate, and keep control of the House of Representatives by a tight margin, the likelihood of President Obama facing impeachment, as Bill Clinton did in 1998, grows.

But there is no case for impeachment, as Barack Obama has NOT committed high crimes and misdemeanors in office!

He has not even had an illicit love affair as Bill Clinton did, and he has not lied under oath, as Bill Clinton sadly did when asked about his love life by a prosecutor under oath, once the Paula Jones accusations came to light.

Obama has been accused of abusing power, but nothing he has done is any different than what George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, or other Presidents did, without the invective that the 44th President has had to deal with.

Obama has faced a constant assault like no one since Richard Nixon, who deserved it, due to his illegal actions. So much of what is said is outrageous, and disrespectful of the office he holds.

But remember that all that is needed for impeachment is a majority of the House of Representatives to vote on one or more articles of impeachment, and the charges need not be substantial or legitimate, as impeachment is a political action, not based on the law, as it was not based on law with Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton.

The likelihood of an impeachment, therefore, is very high, but as stated at other times by this blogger, it will never lead to the removal of the President, since even if the GOP gains the Senate majority, there will never be a situation where enough Democrats, or in fact, any Democrats, would vote to remove him from office!

The effect of an impeachment will be, simply, to besmirch the record of Barack Obama, making him the fourth President to face impeachment charges, but it will only matter as part of his obituary, since it will certainly be one of the key points always remembered if it ends up happening.

The impeachment battle would also cause a dramatic rise in Obama’s popularity, much like Bill Clinton experienced.

It would also help to undermine, ever further, any legitimacy that the Republican Party has with the American people at large, and it would further insure that a Democratic President will be elected in 2016.

Impeachment would be seen as petty, vindictive, and unfortunately, racist, and it would reflect badly on Republicans who wish to run for President.

No good could come out of such an action, but it would be a high moment for those who wish to divide America ever further, but with no satisfaction of their desire for blood.

And the true beneficiary of all this, if by some miracle, Obama was forced out, would be Vice President Joe Biden, who by becoming President with less than half the term left, would have a step up for the Presidency in 2016 and 2020, thus destroying the last opportunity for Hillary Clinton or any Republican to become President before 2025!

And anyone who thinks Joe Biden is a “joke”, who is not to be taken seriously, will have their comeuppance when they discover they might have created the monster of a President Biden for the next decade!

The Case For Joe Biden For President

Almost everyone thinks Hillary Clinton is the almost certain Presidential nominee of the Democratic Party in 2016.

This entry is NOT designed to attack her credentials, or her worthiness to be President, and it is NOT designed to be critical of Martin O’Malley, Andrew Cuomo, Amy Klobuchar, Mark Warner, Elizabeth Warren or Brian Schweitzer, other rumored possible candidates.

It is simply an entry to point out the case for Joe Biden for President of the United States!

When one examines Joe Biden’s political career, one can only marvel at his background and experience, although it is well known that often those with far less experience in government end up in the Presidency, as for instance: Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama.

But, seriously, if one is to use the measurement of experience in NATIONAL government, NO ONE comes even close to Joe Biden!

Only three Presidents had extensive experience in Congress before becoming President, and two of them became President originally by succession during a term–Andrew Johnson and Lyndon B. Johnson. The person to have the most national experience was, sadly, James Buchanan, often ranked as the absolutely worst President we have ever had in our nation’s history.

So one might say, see what happens when you put an experienced person in national government in the Presidency–that they turn out to be disasters, such as Andrew Johnson and Buchanan, and with much dissatisfaction with Lyndon B. Johnson for the Vietnam War escalation.

But it is really unfair to judge having experience as meaning an ultimate failure, and the point is that Joe Biden has a total of 44 years of experience in national government, unmatched in our history, and only Republican Presidential nominee Bob Dole in 1996 coming close, with 36 years of Congressional service!

Biden has unmatched experience and expertise in both foreign policy and legal matters, as he was Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman at different times.

Joe Biden is as skilled with working with the opposition party as Lyndon B. Johnson was in the 1950s, but for a much longer period of time.

Joe Biden would have the ability to get things done, that, arguably, Hillary Clinton would not have, and that other, less experienced Democratic nominees would not have!

Joe Biden is an extremely charming, charismatic , warm human being, and extremely likable and genuine. What you see is what you get, and Biden would be one of the most colorful and dynamic Presidents, were he to gain the Oval Office.

Joe Biden’s shortcomings are his age (although he has tremendous energy and shows no signs of slowing); his tendency to make verbal gaffes (although he has never said anything that did more than make him look foolish and really, human, in that regard); and his one great sin, if that is what it is to be called. That “sin” is having plagiarized in some speeches, and possibly in a term paper in his college years. This is certainly to be criticized, and it knocked him out of the 1988 Presidential race, which, however, was lucky, since he soon suffered an aneurysm, which required brain surgery. One could be concerned that he could have a repeat aneurysm, but it has been 27 years since that event, with no sign of that problem emerging.

The important thing, as always, with any Presidential candidate, is to have a strong, competent, decent running mate for Vice President, in case something tragic occurs, which can happen to anyone at any age! It is not a reason to dismiss someone for President, considering Lyndon B. Johnson’s heart troubles, and Dick Cheney’s multiple heart problems, among other cases of health issues (including John F. Kennedy and Franklin D. Roosevelt), faced by candidates for President and Vice President, as well as those holding the offices.

One thing is very clear! iF Joe Biden were to become President, he would do the nation proud, and we would know we have a President who has our backs, as he does not have a mean bone in his body, and really is compassionate and caring about all of us!

And also, Joe Biden is as close to an “average guy” as we will ever get, a guy who is likely close to the poorest politician throughout his career, living off his and his wife’s salaries, and off sales of his autobiography in recent years. He is not materialistic in the way other officeholders are, and has never had even a hint of scandal in his personal life or his financial life.

That is the kind of man that America deserves in the White House!

Scott Brown: “Carpetbagger” And Multi State Senator?

Scott Brown served almost three years in the US Senate from Massachusetts, winning a special election to replace Ted Kennedy by defeating Attorney General Martha Coakley early in 2010. Then, he lost the full Senate term to Elizabeth Warren in 2012.

Now, Scott Brown wants to come back to the Senate in 2015, but from New Hampshire, as he turned down the chance to run for the vacant Senate seat given up by John Kerry when he became Secretary of State in 2013.

So Scott Brown hopes to do what has not been done since the 1870s and only twice ever, to serve in the Senate from more than one state, with the record being set by James Shields, who served Illinois from 1849-1855, Minnesota in 1858, and Missouri in 1879. One other earlier Senator, unclear who it is at this moment, also served two states.

So for 135 years this has never happened, and very few “carpetbagger” Senators have served since the Reconstruction Era 150 years ago.

The only major examples are New York’s two “outsiders,” often called “carpetbaggers,” but elected despite not really being New Yorkers–Robert F. Kennedy (1965-1968), and Hillary Clinton (2001-2009).

The only modern example of a Senator trying to be elected from a second state was New York Senator James Buckley (1971-1977) , who tried and failed to be elected as a “carpetbagger” from Connecticut in 1980.

So Scott Brown is fighting history and tradition, and except for New York, the willingness to elect an “outsider” to the Senate, although Brown has had a second home in New Hampshire for many years, while always being in office in the state legislature of Massachusetts, and identifying himself as a Massachusetts resident.

His New Hampshire opponent, Senator and former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, will be a tough opponent, and she is highly favored to win, in a state where the two Senators, two House members, and the Governor, are all women, and all Democrats, except for Senator Kelly Ayotte.

It is ironic that in each race Brown has entered for the US Senate, that his opponent has been a woman—Martha Coakley, Elizabeth Warren, and now Jeanne Shaheen.

Don’t put any betting money on Scott Brown making history in 2014 in New Hampshire!

Barack Obama, And The Quandary Of Hillary Clinton And Joe Biden For 2016

It is becoming very evident that President Barack Obama is now entering a real minefield on the issue of who he will support for the Presidential nomination in 2016.

Obama defeated Hillary Clinton in a very divisive campaign in 2007-2008, but then made Hillary his Secretary of State.

At the same time, he competed against Joe Biden, and they remained respectful enough toward each other, so that Obama selected Biden as his Vice Presidential running mate.

Hillary did what is regarded as an excellent job in the State Department during Obama’s first term, and the two rivals became very close, after their earlier rift.

Joe Biden, meanwhile, played a very significant role in the problem solving and crises of the Obama Presidency, remaining totally loyal, and the two men also became very close.

Now both Hillary and Joe want to be President, with Hillary far ahead in public opinion polls and seen by many as the logical nominee, but Joe has made clear that he is not giving up his wish to run for President, and will decide that later, just as Hillary will.

This puts Barack Obama in a quandary as to who he should back for President in 2016. Sometimes, it seems that he will back Hillary, other times Joe!

What it comes down to is that the best advice to President Obama is to stay out of the race, make no commitment to either candidate, and remain neutral, but making clear his willingness to support whoever the winner is, and work to avoid alienation of either Hillary or Joe.

This is a very delicate balancing act, and no one can feel comfortable in this situation, as it is known that Hillary and Joe really admire each other, are good friends, and it is hard to imagine any sustained attack by either on the other.

The easiest solution would be for either Hillary or Joe to decide NOT to run, opening up the door for the other, but that does not seem likely to occur.

In reality, as this author has stated many times before, the best solution, actually, would be for both Hillary and Joe to decide that at the age of 69 and 74, that it is time to retire, After decades of contributions to America, rather than being committed to ten years of stress and pressure and tension, which would leave them, at ages 77 and 82, after eight years in the White House, and the giving up of their private time and money making potential, instead they should both retire in dignity. That would allow a younger generation to enter the fray, and would be good for the Democratic Party and the nation at large!