George W. Bush

Three Potential Democratic Presidential Contenders In 2020 From Virginia: Terry McAuliffe, Tim Kaine, Mark Warner

As the 2020 Presidential campaign begins, there are three potential candidates who come from Virginia, which has become a very “Blue” state.

Former Governor Terry McAuliffe has hinted he plans to run. He is probably the most controversial of the three Virginians, having been the Chairman of the Democratic National Committee during the first George W. Bush term, as well as Chair of the Hillary Clinton 2008 campaign for President, and co-chairman of the reelection campaign of President Bill Clinton in 1996. He is certainly the most hard nosed politician of the three Virginians.

Senator Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton’s Vice Presidential running mate, may run, but does not seem drawn to the idea of running at this point. Many observers feel that Kaine did not help Hillary Clinton, and was a lackluster campaigner. Also, Kaine is seen as moderate in a party moving to the left rapidly.

Senator Mark Warner, also seen as a moderate, and about the wealthiest member of Congress, has long been thought of as a potential candidate, and he has been very active in pursuing the Russian Collusion investigation in the Senate, as the ranking member or Vice Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Interesting point is that all three Virginians have been Governors of their state, and all three have been seen as successes in that position, leading to Kaine and Warner being elected to the Senate.

But none of these three seem at this point, even if they announce, to be likely to win the Democratic nomination.

The one who might have the best chance is Warner, but although he is a more dynamic person than Kaine, it still seems unlikely that he will get very far in the various primaries and caucuses in 2020.

But of course no one can be sure what will happen in any Presidential campaign, so it will be interesting to see if any of these three Virginia politicians move forward toward the nomination in 2020.

The Facts About Barack Obama’s Achievements On The Economy , Corruption, And Health Care, As Compared To Donald Trump’s Record

With the Midterm Elections of 2018 only ten days away, we are now in the season of lying about Barack Obama’s record by Republicans, who act as if the 44th President accomplished nothing while in office, and was an abject failure.

Somehow, the experts see it differently, as the C Span Poll of Historians in 2017 put Obama 12th of all Presidents, and the American Political Science Association poll of 2018 puts Obama as 8th among all Presidents.

Obama brought about the greatest economic revival from a economic collapse in US History, far better than Franklin D. Roosevelt and the ending of the Great Depression, only brought about ultimate entrance into World War II, while Obama brought about an end to the Great Recession without a major war. The stock market nearly tripled under him, and the unemployment rate went from 10 percent when George W. Bush left, to under 5 percent when Obama left office. But Donald Trump tries to claim that magic took place when he came into office, and that the present booming economy is all his doing, ignoring the recovery under his predecessor. It is clear that the economy’s improvement would have been much the same under Hillary Clinton had she won the Electoral College and become our President.

There was no corruption under Barack Obama of note, and no one was indicted or convicted, while the record of the George W. Bush administration had quite a lot of corruption, but already Donald Trump has seen more corruption in less than two years than Bush had in eight years. Trump’s cabinet and other advisers have demonstrated more corruption than any in American history. and so many people have been indicted or pleading guilty in the probe on Russian collusion.

Obama also promoted the protection of preexisting conditions under the Affordable Care Act or ObamaCare, which the Republicans have tried to destroy 70 times, although now all candidates for reelection are claiming otherwise, but a pure lie. Donald Trump has no concern about health care, and instead brags about the massive tax cut to the wealthy, which is leading to Republicans claiming that not only must ObamaCare be repealed, but also there is a need for massive cuts in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

Trump supporters who believe any of the propaganda coming from Trump and Republicans running for reelection, are truly delusional, and fail to understand that the facts are very different from the myths being perpetrated by Republicans who hope to keep control of Congress after the elections in less than two weeks.

Midterm Election History In First Presidential Midterms Since 1946, And Likelihood Of Results Of Midterm Elections In 2018

With the Midterm Elections of 2018 upon us in less than two weeks, it is time to analyze midterm election results in the first such elections after a new President has come to office, starting with Harry Truman in 1946 and all the way through to Barack Obama in 2010.

We are discussing 12 Presidents and how they were factors in the midterm elections which followed their entering the Presidency.

Six of the 12 Presidents entered that first midterm election with their popularity in public opinion polls under 50 percent—with the order of lack of popularity being lowest to highest the following—Truman, Reagan, Lyndon B. Johnson, Obama, Clinton, and Carter. Notice this list is all Democrats except for Reagan.

The other six Presidents were above 50 percent popularity at the time of the first midterm elections–from the highest to the lowest being George W. Bush, Kennedy, Eisenhower, George H. W. Bush, Nixon, Ford. Notice this list is all Republicans except for Kennedy.

The record shows that only George W. Bush and Kennedy saw the best results, with Bush seeing a gain of 8 House seats and 1 Senate seat, in the year after September 11, and Kennedy losing 4 House seats but gaining 2 Senate seats in the weeks after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.

And George H. W. Bush, Nixon, and Eisenhower midterms showed respectively 8 House seats and 1 Senate seat lost; 12 House Seats lost and 1 Senate seat gained; and 18 House seats and 1 Senate seat lost.

Only Ford, three months after taking over the Presidency, and with still a high public opinion rating of 54 percent, but the Nixon Watergate Scandal still reverberating with Ford’s pardon of Nixon, do we see a major loss of 48 House seats and 4 Senate seats lost.

Meanwhile, those six Presidents with a lower than 50 percent public opinion poll rating at the first midterm of their Presidency saw a much greater loss, with Carter having the smallest loss, 15 House seats and 3 Senate seats lost with a 49 percent rating.

Reagan, with a 42 percent rating, lowest except for Truman, saw a loss of 26 House seats but one Senate seat gained.

The other four Presidents—Johnson, Clinton, Truman, Obama—suffered far worse losses—with Johnson losing 48 House seats and losing 4 Senate seats, the same as Ford, who had ten points higher public opinion rating of 54 percent to LBJ’s 44 percent.

Clinton, Truman, and Obama, all Democrats,lost massively in seats in both houses of Congress—Clinton losing 54 House seats and losing 8 Senate seats; Truman losing 55 House seats and losing 12 Senate seats; and Obama losing 63 House seats and losing 6 Senate seats.

What all this leads to is the strong belief that Donald Trump, with 47 percent approval rating most recently, will see a major loss of House seats for sure, and the guess at this time, after much reflection, is that it will be between 40-45 seats. In the Senate, with the great Republican advantage in only having 9 seats open for election, and the Senate having a 51-49 Republican margin, the odds of the Democrats holding on to their seats and gaining two or more of the nine contested Republican seats would seem to lead likely to a 50-50 tie, meaning a one seat Democratic gain, but still a Republican controlled Senate at 50-50, whereby Vice President Mike Pence will still organize the Senate for the next two years. This so unless there is a move by Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, who voted against Brett Kavanaugh, and has been attacked by her state’s Republican party leadership, to switch to Independent or Democratic support, and giving the Senate to the Democrats.

The Governorships generally follow Congressional results, and are extremely important for reapportionment of state legislative districts and US House districts after the Census 2020 population figures are tabulated, so having more Governors of one party over the other are crucial. At this point, it would seem likely that the Democrats will gain from 16 present Governorships by 10-11, and have 26-27 Chief Executives of states.

So overall, a Democratic gain to a majority of House seats to about 235-240 and 26-27 Governorships, but likely a tied 50-50 Senate, putting the results worse for Trump than for Reagan in the House and Senate, but not as bad as for Ford among Republican Presidents.

Hysteria, Hyperbole, And Advocacy Of Violence: Donald Trump Campaign Against Democrats Making Them Appear “UnAmerican”

“Angry, ruthless, unhinged mob”—is the Donald Trump campaign pitch against the Democrats, as the 2018 Midterm election campaign comes down to its last two weeks.

Promoting hysteria, hyperbole, and advocacy of violence are the tactics, something never utilized before in the entirety of American history.

Other Presidents campaigned in midterm elections in harsh terms, such as Andrew Johnson in 1866, and Richard Nixon in 1970, but never on the scale or recklessness of Donald Trump.

A President such as Harry Truman, in his reelection campaign in 1948, gave the Republican opposition “hell”, but never on a level anything near what Donald Trump has done.

He has aroused his crowds with fear, trepidation, and encouraged violence as in Montana, all signs of Fascist authoritarianism.

He has made these midterm elections all about him, so he must be answered by the voters or else doom is ahead!

This election in 16 days MUST repudiate Trumpism, or else the Republic is in dire danger, clear and simple!

This is not the time or place to be lazy or disinterested about politics, as we are in greater danger than we have ever been, worse than the Great Depression, World War II, or September 11!

In those moments of crisis, we had Franklin D. Roosevelt and George W. Bush, a strange pairing it might seem, but both committed to the protection of the nation, as compared to the clear aggrandizement of power and egotism of Donald Trump, who does not respect the Constitution.

The Next Speaker Of The House IF GOP Keeps Majority: Kevin McCarthy, Steve Scalise, Or Jim Jordan

If the Republican Party, somehow, holds on to majority control of the House of Representatives in the 116th Congress, they will need to select a new Speaker of the House, as Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan is leaving Congress at the end of this year.

At this point, there are three key contenders for the Speakership in the Republican Party:

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California

House Majority Whip Steve Scalise of Louisiana

House Freedom Caucus member Jim Jordan of Ohio

All three, honestly, make outgoing Speaker Paul Ryan look better by comparison, and yet, my readers know how much I dislike, and have denounced Paul Ryan, including when he was the Vice Presidential running mate of Mitt Romney in the Presidential Election of 2012, for which I was viciously attacked on several right wing websites at the time.

But seriously, Kevin McCarthy is practically the “lap dog” of Donald Trump, extremely loyal and obedient, and was seemingly aware of Russian Collusion in 2016, was talking about it at a Republican House conference meeting, until Paul Ryan told him to stop talking about it. He is a man without any principles other than the advancement of Donald Trump and his agenda, part of the Trump party, rather than the traditional Republican Party, and even more so than Paul Ryan, who has been unwilling to speak out against Trump’s disgraceful tweets and policies. McCarthy has refused to engage in Town Hall events in his Bakersfield, California district since 2010. He also promoted pursuit of Hillary Clinton for the Benghazi, Libya incident, where four diplomats were killed, gaining a reputation of promoting a “hit job” on her, when many more diplomats were killed at embassies during the Presidency of George W. Bush.

Steve Scalise, thankfully, recovered from being shot at the Congressional baseball game in June 2017, but it had no effect on his views on gun control, which is no regulation at all. Beyond that, Scalise used to be a friend of Ku Klux Klan Wizard and white supremacist David Duke, although now, of course, he denies it, and tries to claim it was not so. He would, in this author’s view, be a worse choice than McCarthy. However, for those who are uncomfortable with McCarthy, and might prefer a Southerner as the next Speaker, due to the strong GOP presence in the South, he might be seen as a potential favorite, and certainly less disgraceful by comparison, to the third choice, Jim Jordan of Ohio.

Jim Jordan, who is a co leader of the House Freedom Caucus, the most Far Right group in the Republican Party, has been accused of covering up abuse of athletes on the wrestling team at Ohio State University, when he was an assistant coach in the 1980s. He was one of the Republicans who promoted government shutdowns, and has done everything possible to block the House Judiciary Committee and the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee from pursuing investigation of the Donald Trump collusion with Russia in the 2016 campaign. He also pursed the Benghazi, Libya investigation of the deaths of four diplomats, targeting Hillary Clinton in a total of 11 investigations, which found no evidence of wrongdoing, and which featured 11 hours of testimony by Clinton, with no sign of weakness on her part, as compared to the performance of many others investigated by Congressional committees. Plain and simple, Jordan would be the absolute worst of the three choices being considered by the Republicans, although others might join the fray after the midterm elections.

It is indeed a very sad situation when we can look back on John Boehner as being far better than Paul Ryan, Kevin McCarthy, Steve Scalise, and Jim Jordan.

Let us hope that one of the latter three will be the Minority Leader, rather than the Speaker of the House in 2019-2020.

One Term Presidents Who Lose Reelection Reassessed

The historical image of One Term Presidents is that it is the worst thing imaginable to lose reelection, and that their historical image is damaged.

Actually, though, it could be argued that a one term Presidency often is a blessing in disguise in the long run.

Let’s examine what happened to the lives of Presidents defeated for a second term.

John Adams lost reelection to Thomas Jefferson in 1800, but went on to live another 25 years, see his son John Quincy Adams be elected and inaugurated President, and die at the age of 90 years and seven months, the all time record until the 21st century, when four other Presidents surpassed him in age.

John Quincy Adams lost reelection to Andrew Jackson in 1828, but went on to live another 19 years, and be elected to nine terms as a Congressman from Massachusetts, engaged in the fight against slavery as the only President elected by popular vote to an elected office after being President.

Martin Van Buren lost reelection to William Henry Harrison in 1840, but went on to live another 21 years, and be the Presidential nominee of the Free Soil Party in 1848, winning about 10 percent of the national popular vote, the first such third party to have an impact on a national election.

Grover Cleveland lost reelection to Benjamin Harrison in 1888, but came back to the White House by election in 1892, and later served on the Princeton University Board of Trustees after his retirement.

William Howard Taft lost reelection to Woodrow Wilson in 1912, but went on to become the only President also to serve as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court from 1921-1930.

Herbert Hoover lost reelection to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932, but went on to the longest retirement of more than 31 years, only surpassed by Jimmy Carter in 2012, and Hoover having growing respect for his post Presidential activities, and dying at the age of 90 in 1964, only five months less lifespan than John Adams, and the second President to reach that age.

Gerald Ford lost election to Jimmy Carter in 1976, after succeeding Richard Nixon under the 25th Amendment, but went on to growing recognition and respect in his nearly 30 years after his Presidency, setting the record for longevity until 2018, dying at the age of 93 and five months.

Jimmy Carter lost reelection to Ronald Reagan in 1980, but went on to become the most outstanding former President in his activities and commitments to public service, and has had the longest retirement of any President, nearly 38 years, and has just reached the age of 94, being 111 days younger than George H. W. Bush.

George H. W. Bush lost reelection to Bill Clinton in 1992, but went on to see his son, George W. Bush be inaugurated and serve two terms in the Presidency, and growing respect as he set the all time record of age 94 in June 2018.

The 114th Supreme Court Justice In American History MUST Be Beyond Reproach, Since It Is A Lifetime Appointment, So NO To Kavanaugh!

The next Supreme Court Justice will be the 114th in American history.

Being on the Supreme Court is a special honor, and it is a lifetime position, since only one Justice, Samuel Chase in 1805, has ever been impeached by the House of Representatives, and Chase was found not guilty by the US Senate and stayed on the Court. He was appointed by George Washington in 1796, and served on the Court until his death in 1811.

So if a person is appointed and confirmed to be a Justice, he or she will remain a member of the Court until death or retirement.

It is one thing for an elected official to have moral or ethical shortcomings, with the voters able to use that information and hold that person to accountability in future elections, but a Supreme Court Justice must be beyond reproach since it is a lifetime appointment,

Evidence against Brett Kavanaugh will be examined this week when his accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, will testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Certainly, Kavanaugh is entitled to a hearing and ability to defend himself, but if there is any doubt about his telling the truth, which is already questionable about other aspects of his career before becoming a Circuit Court judge, then he should be rejected for this lifetime appointment, while likely to keep his present Circuit Court position, unless it is felt that he should forfeit that high honor as well.

Hopefully, the two Republican women in the Senate, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, will have enough backbone to stop the nomination, which they can do, if every Democratic Senator refuses to back him.

The point is that no one is entitled to confirmation, and Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and George W. Bush had nominees rejected, so why not Donald Trump?

One Year Since Hurricane Maria In Puerto Rico: A Total National Tragedy, And Time For Puerto Rican Statehood

It has been one tragic year since Hurricane Maria struck Puerto Rico, and its floods, winds, and the aftermath of very limited recovery efforts by the Trump Administration led to almost 3,000 deaths, making Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, Louisiana, with its 1,800 deaths look minor by comparison.

The main job of government is to protect its population, not just from foreign foes and invasion, but also from natural disasters, and the Republican Party has set a horrible record of lack of concern and ineptness in dealing with natural disasters.

Witness Hurricane Andrew in 1992 in Florida under President George H. W. Bush; Hurricane Katrina in 2005 in Louisiana under President George W. Bush; and now Hurricane Maria in 2017 in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands under President Donald Trump.

Trump’s lack of concern is worst than the disasters under the two Bushes, and his racism is totally apparent, and the gall of him to throw paper towels on a brief visit a few weeks after the disaster shows just how despicable he is as a human being.

It is time for Puerto Rico, which is still treated as a colony, to apply for statehood, and in June of 2017 the island voted for statehood overwhelmingly, but a small percentage voted, but it should move forward expeditiously, and become the 51st state.

There is a statehood bill, that would make Puerto Rico a state by January 1, 2021, 19 days before the next Presidential inauguration.

Of course, the Republicans, if they keep control, will not wish to do so, as Puerto Rico would certainly be a Democratic state, and likely have two Democratic Senators and a few Democratic Congressmen, but it is the right thing to do, and soon.

Donald Trump And Hurricanes: Hurricane Maria In Puerto Rico, And Hurricane Florence Now Menacing The Carolinas And Virginia

Donald Trump has presided over the worst hurricane disaster in American history, with Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, leading to 3,000 deaths, the same as the attack on Al Qaeda on September 11, 2001.

He has the gall and the lack of empathy to claim a “great success”, and it is clear Trump is totally delusional, and criminal in his lack of taking responsibility for the disaster that could have been handled better by the Federal Emergency Management Agency,

And now, just in advance of hurricane season, and the menacing Hurricane Florence about to assault North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia, in what some think could be the worst hurricane in memory, it has been revealed that $10 million has been transferred to ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) to arrange for more detentions of immigrants than already has occurred, marking the greatest such detention facilities since the Japanese Americans in World War II.

It is a criminal act to promote continued and expanded detention, and it is also criminal to take funds out of FEMA as we face another hurricane disaster season.

There has to be, eventually, full accountability for these crimes for top officials in the Trump Administration, and if the nation cannot protect its own citizens from harm from natural disasters, then how can they protect us from harm from a foreign foe, from terrorism?

That is the number one question to ask of the Trump Administration, which is proving to be more incompetent on hurricanes than even George W. Bush on Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, Louisiana in 2005.

Barack Obama Finally Gets Back On The Campaign Trail

It was wonderful to see Barack Obama get back on the campaign trail these last few days.

Obama had been reluctant to criticize his successor, Donald Trump, as George W. Bush had scrupulously avoided criticizing Obama, although former Vice President Dick Cheney had had no such qualms.

But the abuses and outrages that have occurred in the past 19 plus months forced Obama to decide to campaign, and Trump has waged war on everything Barack Obama represents, and has worked to destroy all of his accomplishments.

So many wondered why it took this long for Obama to go on the offensive.

His first two speeches in Illinois and California were brilliant, and many scholars and observers realize Obama is, in many respects, a master orator, on the level of Abraham Lincoln, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and John F. Kennedy.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump made fun of Obama, saying that he fell asleep listening to Obama’s speech, a statement never used before by any President against any former President.

What it comes down to is that Trump cannot match Obama in any sense in oratory or speech making, and instead just bad mouths him, as he has all along, as well as everyone else in public life.

It also demonstrates how lacking in intellect and knowledge and depth Donald Trump is, in many ways the least informed President in American history.

Hopefully, Obama’s intervention in the midterm elections of 2018 will have the needed impact to make the Democrats the big winners in November.