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Final Projection On Congressional Elections Of 2020

With only five days to go until the Congressional Elections of 2020, this author and blogger wishes to indicate his final projection on what is likely to happen.

The House of Representatives will witness a major Democratic gain, with the estimate being about 15 seats, to a total of approximately 250 Democrats and 185 Republicans, giving the Democrats a wide margin for the next elections in 2022.

Democrats will gain seats in California, Florida, Illinois, Texas, Virginia and Pennsylvania, reaching about five more than I estimated on May 2 in my earlier projection, and a large number will be female and minority.

The US Senate will see a Democratic takeover, and have 53-55 seats. The Democrats will lose Alabama, regrettably, although Doug Jones is an exceptional Senator, the best Alabama has had in a long time, but Alabama is simply unwilling to appreciate a man as decent and accomplished as Doug Jones. If he does indeed lose his seat, however, Jones should be part of the Biden team, maybe as a cabinet member.

The Republicans will lose seven to nine seats, with assuredly the following seven gains and possibly two more:

Arizona, Mark Kelly over Martha McSally

Colorado, John Hickenlooper over Cory Gardner

Maine, Sara Gideon over Susan Collins

Georgia, Jon Ossoff over David Perdue

Montana, Steve Bullock over Steve Daines

North Carolina, Cal Cunningham over Thom Tillis

Iowa, Theresa Greenfield over Joni Ernst

Kansas, Barbara Bollier over Roger Marshall

South Carolina, Jaime Harrison over Lindsey Graham

Georgia’s other seat, presently held by Kelly Loeffler is more difficult to determine, and will not be settled until January.

Sadly, this author and blogger doubts the defeat of John Cornyn in Texas or Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, but sees the first seven listed above sure to go Blue, and Kansas and South Carolina possible, so therefore, with the loss of Alabama, but the gain of seven Republican seats, at least 53 Democrats, and the possibility of up to two more, for a grand total of 55 maximum!

Kamala Harris Main Arguments To Use Against Mike Pence In VP Debate On Wednesday Evening

Arguably the most important Vice Presidential debate since the first one in 1976 is taking place this Wednesday in Salt Lake City, Utah, when Vice President Mike Pence confronts California Senator Kamala Harris.

The possibility of a female Vice President in the next Presidential term heightens interest in this debate between a Vice President who has been unwilling to express his own views with his President, by every measure we have; and a Senator, who headed the Justice system of the state with one eighth of the American people residing, in California.

Kamala Harris needs to address major issues with Mike Pence, and if necessary, be persistent!

These include:

Why are you NOT asserting yourself in this COVID 19 crisis, and allowing Trump family members to run rampant over your responsibility to the nation to invoke the 25th Amendment?

Why are you not emphasizing masks, social distancing, and avoiding large rallies on your own part?

Why have you not condemned white nationalism groups, including QAnon and “Proud Boys”?

Why do you refuse to resist the policy of favoritism toward Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, and other dictators, and the worsening relations of the nation with NATO, Canada, Japan, and South Korea?

Why do you show no concern about the immediate loss of health care for 20 million or more people, especially in the midst of a world wide pandemic?

How do you explain all of the failures of Trump, including on;

the Mexico wall:

no health care alternative and plans to gut Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security;

the inhumane treatment of immigrant children and their parents at the border;

the widespread corruption of Trump Cabinet officers and others;

Trump’s failure to match Barack Obama’s economic recovery; Trump’s constant attacks on veterans, Muslims, the disabled, and those who have died, including John McCain, and lack of respect for Ruth Bader Ginsburg;

and so many other shortcomings?

Harris will perform very well, with compassion, concern, empathy, decency, ethics, morality and persistence in asserting herself, and this will make her an excellent and principled Vice President under a President Joe Biden, who has the same character traits as she does.

And if circumstance puts Kamala Harris into the Oval Office, the nation will be well served and be in competent hands!

Cuban Americans Are Distinctly Republican, But Competition For The Vote Of Other Latinos Is Strongly Democratic

It is well known that the majority of Cuban Americans have been conservative and supporters of the Republican Party, since the first migration of Cubans to South Florida in 1959, and particularly after the failed Bay of Pigs fiasco under President John F. Kennedy in 1961.

And yet, younger Cubans are much more Democratic, as this scholar and professor discovered in his classes over the years.

Still, the effect of Fidel Castro and his brother Raul Castro permeate the strong anti Communism of Cuban Americans in Florida, New Jersey, New York and California, major centers of Cuban Americans. But Cubans are only about 4 percent of all Latino Americans.

Other Latino Americans still tend to be strongly Democratic, so it is expected Joe Biden will win the vast majority of Mexican Americans, Puerto Ricans, and other Latino groups from Latin America, with the one exception of Venezuelans.

Florida will be more complex because of the strength of the Cuban vote in South Florida, but the growing Puerto Rican presence, especially in central Florida in the last few years, makes it a real competition for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Elsewhere, the Mexican American vote, and population (which is two thirds of all Latinos in America), makes it likely that Arizona may turn “Blue” and that Texas will be much more competitive than ever in the past thirty years. And Georgia and North Carolina also will be tight races due to Latinos.

Already, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado are strongly Democratic.

So the battle for the Latino vote is very much to be noticed in this upcoming Presidential election, and in Senate and House races.

Kentucky Has The Two Worst Senators Of Any State!

These days, there are so many Republican Senators who are totally disgraceful, despicable, horrendous, lacking in empathy, humanity, and common decency!

But although many are in this category, it is clear that the worst combination of any state goes to Kentucky, a very poor state, with many poor people, and more who are white than minority, and two Senators who do not give a damn about their own constituents!

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senator Rand Paul share the prize for the most monstrous combination, and it is hoped that McConnell might be defeated in November, at age 77 and 36 years in the Senate!

And if that happens, it would be time to prosecute McConnell for his corrupt actions, and that of his wife, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, as there has been a conflict of interest that McConnell’s wife has been allowed to serve in the Trump Cabinet!

It is outrageous that McConnell is unwilling to offer support for state aid to such states as New York, California, and Illinois, when those states supply a lot of financial aid to Kentucky annually!

And Rand Paul has been a total nightmare, as his libertarianism bent harms his population! Paul even questions the science and medical knowledge of Dr. Anthony Fauci!

It is impossible to explain why Kentuckians do not get the message and vote them out of office, as they clearly do not give a damn about the people of their state!

Vote By Mail Should Be Alternative, And Should Be Offered Everywhere This November For All Elections

With the nation in the midst of the CoronaVirus Pandemic, it is essential that all states offer Vote by Mail as an alternative, making it mandatory for all elections!

As it is, about 25 percent of voters vote by mail, including this blogger and author.

People who are older; those who are disabled; those who are in hospitals, nursing homes, and other public institutions; and others who find it inconvenient to stand in lines at polls on Election Day already vote by mail.

If Donald Trump had his way, no one would vote by mail, as he knows that is the only way that a majority of people, not electoral votes, would vote for the Republican party. They make it their mission to make voting harder, and to work to undermine the right to vote for minority groups, and make voter suppression their major effort in office!

Standing online yesterday in Wisconsin, forced on voters by the Republican Party of Wisconsin and the US Supreme Court majority of conservative Republicans, was a total outrage and disgrace!

The right to vote is sacred, and no one needs to prove his residence, as long as he or she has registered to vote with proper identification. Once that has been established, we should follow Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah and Hawaii, all enlightened states, that have all of their elections by mail already!

Sixteen other states also have vote by mail allowed, including my state of Florida, but also California and Arizona as major centers of population. allow it.

It is time for such states as New York, Massachusetts, Virginia, Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, and particularly Southern states, to spread democracy to all citizens!

Andrew Cuomo A Model Of A Crisis Leader, Compared To Our Out Of Touch Leader, Donald Trump

In the midst of this CoronaVirus Crisis, as we have President Donald Trump displaying total lack of compassion, empathy, or concern with his pitiful leadership in handling the pandemic, we are seeing Profiles in Courage by state and local leaders who are proving how decent and impressive they are in stepping up to fill the void, at least partially.

Special plaudits are given to New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who one could wish could step into the role of President, a position he chose not to compete for in the present Presidential Election of 2020 competition.

This author and blogger has to admit that he had never been very impressed with Andrew Cuomo, who he thought was not impressive at all in his role as NY Governor, and certainly nothing like his wonderful father, the late former NY Governor Mario Cuomo.

But now, Andrew Cuomo has proved me wrong, and I salute him for his gutsy and courageous leadership in a time when New York State and New York City have become one of the epicenters of the spreading of the virus, along with California and Washington State.

Will South Carolina Be Joe Biden’s Last Hurrah?

Indications are, based on recent public opinion polls, that former Vice President Joe Biden is likely to win the South Carolina Presidential Primary this Saturday, by a substantial margin.

The endorsement by African American Congressman and House Majority Whip James Clyburn of Biden is a real boost to Biden’s candidacy.

But the question is whether the upcoming vote is the last Hurrah for Biden, as he lacks adequate financial resources, and is not showing up well in Super Tuesday primaries next Tuesday, when 14 states, including California, Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Colorado as the most significant states, conduct their elections. Senator Bernie Sanders is favored to win most of those primaries.

Winning South Carolina might help, but it is only three days to those Super Tuesday primaries, so if Biden does poorly on Tuesday, March 3, it likely will be the end of his dream of becoming the 46th President of the United States!

Is Bernie Sanders An Unstoppable Juggernaut? Not So Fast!

Senator Bernie Sanders’ impressive win in Nevada is a warning sign to many mainstream Democrats that he is unstoppable.

Not so fast, as one cannot judge the battle for the Democratic Presidential nomination based on three small states.

Super Tuesday will be the decisive moment, if any candidate can win the vast number of delegates from the 14 states having primaries on that date, including California, Texas, Minnesota, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Massachusetts.

After Nevada, however, the candidates that still have a chance to stop Bernie are likely Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden, with the bet being that Pete is more likely.

The debate on CBS this coming Tuesday, followed by the South Carolina Primary on Saturday, will be the stepping stone for Tuesday, March 3!

The Caucus-Primary System In The Future Needs To Be Reformed

The Caucus-Primary system for Presidential elections needs to be reformed, as it is clear that having Iowa and New Hampshire go first, with both being totally lacking in diversity, is not a system for the long term.

The argument could be that California and Texas should go first, as they are very diverse and together have about 20 percent of the national population.

Add states such as Wisconsin and Virginia, and that would be a good start toward a system that would be much more amenable to the promotion of racial and ethnic diversity in a nation that will be majority non white in a generation. Therefore, it would be more reflective of reality, and allow minority candidates a better chance to survival in the process.

It is sad that Kamala Harris, Julian Castro, and Cory Booker have been forced out of the Presidential race for the Democrats, due to lack of financial support. Hopefully, the future can be different.

Major Changes In Electoral College Coming After Census Figures In 2020, And Reapportionment Of Seats In House Of Representatives In 2022 And After

The Electoral College and Congressional Representation in the House of Representatives will change dramatically, after the Census of 2020 leads to seven states gaining electoral votes and Congressional seats, while ten states will lose electoral votes and Congressional seats starting in 2022 for the lower house of Congress, and for the Electoral College in 2024 and 2028.

The big winners will be Texas and Florida, gaining 3 and 2 seats and 3 and 2 electoral votes. Also gaining one seat and one electoral vote will be Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, Montana, and North Carolina.

The ten states that will lose one seat each and one electoral vote are:

California (first time ever)

New York

Pennsylvania

Illinois

Ohio

Michigan

Minnesota

Rhode Island

West Virginia

Alabama

Rhode Island will now only have a Representative at Large, and Montana, which had gone in recent decades from one to two to one member of the House will again have 2 seats in the lower chamber of Congress.

The “Rust Belt” continues to lose in the Northeast and Midwest, while the South and the West, generally called the “Sun Belt”, continues to gain seats and power, although California losing is a surprise. They will still have 52 (instead of 53) House seats and 54 (instead of 55) electoral votes in the 2020s.

New York has lost for seven decades in House seats and electoral votes, from a high of 45 and 47 in the 1930s and 1940s to 26 and 28 in the 2020s. while Florida in the same period has grown from 8 and 10 in the 1950s to 29 and 31 in the 2020s!