“Swing States”

512 Paths To White House For Barack Obama; 76 Paths To White House For Mitt Romney

Ronald 5 Comments

The New York Times and Nate Silver today list 512 Paths to the White House for Barack Obama, and 76 Paths to the White House for Mitt Romney in graph form, using different combinations of “swing” or “battleground” states to demonstrate the various paths.

Leave it to Nate SIlver, the most brilliant political statistician in America, who continues to say that Obama has an 85 percent chance of winning a second term, while Romney has a 15 percent chance of winning the White House.

Ultimately, in about 36-48 hours, we should know whether Nate Silver remains the “genius”, or is indeed a “paper tiger”!

Bet on Nate Silver would be this author’s advice!

Final Projection On Presidential Race: Obama-Biden 332 Electoral Votes, Romney-Ryan 206 Electoral Votes

Ronald 6 Comments

This author has spent a lot of time and effort in studying, analyzing, evaluating the Presidential Election contest of 2012, and is now ready to project the final result.

Barack Obama has been long predicted to win at least 237 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 191 electoral votes, with nine states in play as “swing” or “battleground” states, all of which Obama won in 2008.

The prediction that the author wishes to make is that Obama will win ALL of the nine competitive states, except North Carolina, giving him 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206 electoral votes!

So Obama will win New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado, with a total of 95 electoral votes, added to the 237, making the final total of 332 electoral votes.

Romney, by winning the 15 electoral votes of North Carolina, will go from 191 to 206 in the final total of electoral votes.

It also means that Obama will have won every state he won in 2008, except Indiana and North Carolina, and a total of 26 states and the District of Columbia. Romney will win 24 states.

Also, expect that the popular vote will be close in North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Montana, with Romney winning, but with hints that Democrats will have a grand opportunity to win those states in 2016 and beyond, with the growing Hispanic-Latino vote. The first hint will be the likely victories for the Senate of Democrats Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Richard Carmona in Arizona.

Additionally, Obama should win about 52 percent of the vote to 47 percent of the vote for Romney, with Gary Johnson and other third party candidates winning slightly more than one percent of the total vote.

This means Obama will have won by a slightly smaller percentage of the popular vote and fewer electoral votes, but with the factor of reapportionment of seats due to the Census of 2010 changing downward many of the Frost Belt states which support Barack Obama, plus the loss of North Carolina and Indiana from 2008.

Still, overall, a very impressive performance can be expected!

Comments on this projection of the results are welcome!

Nate Silver Convincing That Barack Obama Will Be Reelected President On Tuesday

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Nate Silver, the most legitimate prognosticator on the American political scene, who writes for the NY TIMES, has upped the ante on the reelection of Barack Obama to the White House with his declaration that the odds for Obama have been raised to 85 percent, based on 19 of 22 polls in the “swing states” in the past few days, showing him ahead.

Silver has always put Obama in the lead, but now, after Hurricane Sandy, his odds of winning have gone up.

So despite the Gallup and Rasmussen polls that show a near deadlock, Silver claims that Mitt Romney winning is a real gamble, and would not be worth a bet, unless one is prepared to lose a large amount of money!

We all know about the Gallup polls of 1948, which were totally wrong, but this is NOT 1948, and the thought is that the Gallup and Rasmussen polls are wrong, and that Nate Silver and the polls that show Obama winning are correct.

This author has always believed that Obama would win, based on his record, and the multiple faults and weaknesses of Mitt Romney and his campaign.

In about 60 hours, we shall know!

The Theoretical Possibility Of A Romney-Biden White House

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IF by some chance, the electoral vote would be evenly divided 269-269, the House of Representatives, likely to have more states with a Republican majority delegation, would then get to choose the President, as they did in 1800 and 1824, and would then choose Mitt Romney, their party’s nominee.

But if the Democrats continued to control the US Senate, then Vice President Joe Biden would be likely to be chosen, and we would have a split White House, which we only had after the 1796 election, when Thomas Jefferson was the opponent of John Adams, and ended up as his unhappy Vice President, and then defeated him in a tumultuous election in 1800.

The 12th Amendment in 1804 was supposed to prevent such an eventuality again, but it is possible, but highly unlikely, that such a scenario could happen.

This would be bad for America, as certainly Romney and Biden would not get along, and it is well known that Biden has ambitions to run for President in 2016, and would likely oppose President Romney on every issue imaginable, as they might be opponents in 2016, when Romney would run for reelection.

It is interesting to think about this, but no one should worry, as the odds of a tie of 269-269 is highly remote, and every indication from the “swing states” and Nate Silver in the NY Times is that Barack Obama will win the Electoral College without any problem, and win most of the contested states, as many other polls also indicate!

Ohio Remains Strongly For Barack Obama With Six Days To Go To Presidential Election

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Ohio, the state that EVERY Republican President has won from Abraham Lincoln to George W. Bush, remains strongly behind Barack Obama, with six days to go to the Presidential Election of 2012.

It seems as if Mitt Romney may be gaining in other “swing states”, according to some polls, although others show otherwise, but without Ohio, Romney would have to win all of the rest of those states to pull out a victory, and despite the Gallup national poll, which shows Romney ahead, the Nate Silver–NY Times model seems more likely the final result.

And if Obama wins Ohio and the election, the likely major reason will be because Obama saved the auto industry in Ohio and the Midwest, while Romney, despite his father’s involvement in the industry, will willing to allow it to die, and take with it, million of jobs, including ancillary industries.

Gallup Vs. Nate Silver: Who Is Reliable In Prediction Of Presidential Race?

Ronald Leave a comment

Here we are a week out from the election, and the public opinion polls and prognosticators are driving everyone nuts, with contradictory views and statistics as to whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will be elected next week.

The Gallup polls have projected Romney as ahead by five points in some polls, and other polls have shown a tight race, almost even.

Meanwhile, Nate Silver of the NY TIMES, considered the master of political polling science, says that Barack Obama has about a 73 percent chance of winning, particularly in regard to the “swing states”, showing him ahead in all but North Carolina and Florida, and a tossup in Colorado and Virginia.

But leaving North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Virginia out of the mix for Obama, that still means he is favored in New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin and Nevada, and will win 295 electoral votes, 24 more than is needed to win the Presidency.

So this leaves us in a quandary!

Who do we trust or believe in? Nate Silver or the Gallup Polls, or other polls?

Remember, the Gallup polls were totally wrong in 1948, predicting a victory for Thomas E. Dewey over Harry Truman!

But, of course, that was 64 years ago, a long time, with much improvement and proof of reliability of Gallup much of the time!

On the other hand, the last time we had such a stiff, awkward, hard to relate to, Governor of a Northeastern state who had been born in Michigan, before Mitt Romney was, indeed, Dewey in 1948!

Hmmm, that is food for thought!

The Four “States” Of Florida

Ronald 1 Comment

Florida began early voting today, and it is the ultimate “swing state”, as it is really four “states”!

North Florida and the Panhandle is strongly conservative and Republican, except for Gainesville, the home of the flagship University of Florida.

Central Florida is the ultimate battleground of Tampa and Orlando, with growing Hispanic population, heavily Puerto Rican, but also Midwesterners who are Republicans, so it is hard to know what will happen here.

Palm Beach and Broward Counties in South Florida are fertile Democratic territory, and heavily Jewish and other Northeasterners.

Miami Dade County is heavily Cuban, likely Republican, but the younger generation may be straying from their parents and grandparents.

Voter turnout and enthusiasm will decide if Florida goes to Barack Obama or Mitt Romney in ten days!

The Huffington Post Projection On The Election Today: Obama 277, Romney 191, And Five States In Play!

Ronald 6 Comments

According to the Huffington Post, this evening (October 25), the Electoral College total is Barack Obama 277, and Mitt Romney 191, with five states and 70 electoral votes in play!

According to the Huffington Post estimates, Obama is winning the “swing” states of the Midwest (Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin), along with Nevada.

The five states in play are the Southern states (Virginia, North Carolina, Florida), and also New Hampshire and Colorado.

But even if Romney wins all five states, with 70 electoral votes, he would only have 261, nine short of the number needed to win, with Obama having seven more than the number needed, 270.

It seems a good judgment that the Midwest is lost to Mitt Romney, based on early voting, and Romney’s refusal to back the auto industry survival ultimately will cost him the election, despite the overwhelming list of mistakes and blunders made by the Republican nominee for President.

There will be plenty of time after November 6 to analyze why Mitt Romney is another Presidential “loser”!

Major Florida Factor Often Not Considered: The Puerto Rican, And Other Non Cuban Hispanic Vote

Ronald Leave a comment

As the battle for Florida’s electoral votes goes on, many observers are failing to realize the possible influence of the massively increased Puerto Rican population, particularly in the major area of significance, Central Florida.

Often, many people assume that the Hispanic vote is mostly Cuban, and that they, of course, traditionally vote Republican because of the failure of John F. Kennedy to eliminate Fidel Castro at the Bay of Pigs in 1961.

But in recent years, the Puerto Rican population in the state of Florida, and particularly, in Central Florida, has ballooned to nearly match or surpass the Cuban population found mostly in South Florida.

There are nearly a million Puerto Ricans in Florida, a state that is always rapidly changing, and becoming more non Cuban Hispanic by the month.

The Puerto Ricans of Florida, with smaller numbers in the past, supported the election and reelection of Governor Jeb Bush, but they went to Barack Obama for President in 2008, and are seen as likely, by large percentages, to vote for him again. The key, as always, will be voter turnout.

Additionally, there are a growing number of Hispanics from other nations in the Western Hemisphere, and the tendency of many would be to support Obama, although the very religious element, against abortion and gay marriage, might not, but the point being made here is that to assume, because of some polls at the moment, that Mitt Romney has Florida locked up, with its 29 electoral votes, is a massive mistake, as Florida will be in play, and may well decide who is the next President. And realize that younger Cuban Americans, in many cases, are abandoning the Republican beliefs of their parents and grandparents, and some will vote for Barack Obama!

And remember, with the biggest prize of the “swing” states, 29 electoral votes, Florida may select Barack Obama for a second term, and without the intervention of the Supreme Court for George W. Bush, as in the Presidential Election of 2000!

Electoral College Majority For Obama Edges Closer By The Day

Ronald 14 Comments

The standard belief has been that Barack Obama has 237 electoral votes, and Mitt Romney has 191 electoral votes.

But now, two states have been “awarded”, meaning it is felt that each candidate has gained one of them–Nevada with six electoral votes for Obama, and North Carolina with 15 electoral votes for Romney.

So one can now say that the electoral vote total is 243 for Obama and 206 for Romney, with seven states still in play.

But, this author feels it is closer than that to 270 electoral votes for Obama.

Wisconsin seems certain for Obama, and New Hampshire also seems likely, so if they are counted, with 10 and 4 electoral votes, respectively, Obama would have 257 electoral votes, only 13 short of the 270 needed to win the Presidency!

So the remaining battlegrounds are Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado, and even Iowa with six electoral votes seems likely Obama territory, so imagine adding Iowa, and we have 263 electoral votes, seven short of the number needed!

Every indication is that, despite supposedly close polls in percentage of popular votes, the tide is clearly in Obama’s camp, and don’t be surprised if he wins ALL of the remaining states—Ohio, Colorado, Virginia and Florida, in that order of probability!