Public Opinion Polls

Latest Poll Averages Show Obama Ahead Of Romney In Eleven Of Twelve Battleground States!

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Barack Obama may be only slightly ahead of Mitt Romney nationally in the average of various polls–47.3 percent to 44.7 percent, but when one looks at twelve battleground or swing states, he is ahead of Romney in all but North Carolina, where he trails Romney by 48.5 to 46.5, two percentage points.

Obama is ahead by almost 6 points in Ohio; by 2.5 points in Virginia; by 3 points in Florida; by 6.5 points in Pennsylvania; by almost 4 points in Iowa; by 5.5 points in Nevada; by 5 points in Wisconsin; by 7 points in New Mexico; by 6.5 points in Michigan; and by almost 3 points in New Hampshire. In Colorado, the margin is only two tenths of one point for Obama over Romney, nearly an even split.

So Obama is ahead in 10 of the 12 states listed, all of which he won in 2008, nearly even in Colorado, and only behind in North Carolina!

Not bad considering the blistering attacks and lies and deception that have been going on for three and a half years as President, greater than any President since the last one who was called every name in the book, and yet won a landslide victory in 1936 in the midst of the Great Depression, with unemployment levels still much higher than they are in 2012.

The author is referring here to Franklin D. Roosevelt!

The Most Dysfunctional Congress Since The 1870s!

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The 112th Congress is so dysfunctional that it is the worst one in performance since the Reconstruction years of the 1870s after the Civil War!

The 112th Congress has produced the fewest laws since at least 1947, with only about 150 laws

Congress is usually judged by how many laws it has passed, but with a Democratic Senate and a Republican House of Representatives, nothing has been done, except for accusations back and forth.

The most conservative Democrat votes to the left of every Republican, and the most moderate Republican to the right of every Democrat, a situation that has never occurred before, with some across the aisle voting always occurring in the past, with a lot of it in the 1930s through to the early 1970s.

Congress’s popularity ratings are in the low teens, below of that of Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez, an unbelievable situation!

Unless either party wins control of both houses of Congress in 2012, another four years of paralysis is likely.

But if the Republicans gain control of both houses of Congress and the White House, their purpose would be to destroy the “welfare” state of the New Deal and Great Society, wiping out a century of social and economic reform.

That would portend a possible civil war, as a large portion of the population would not tolerate such right wing extremism, and it could lead to a breakdown of our society’s stability and to foreign policy adventures which would bring deterioration of our unity!

NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg Throws Down The Gauntlet To Barack Obama And Mitt Romney: Come Up With A Plan For Responsible Gun Regulation After The Aurora, Colorado Massacre!

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New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has thrown down the gauntlet to President Barack Obama and Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney to take responsibility for coming up with a plan for gun regulation, in the aftermath of the Aurora, Colorado Massacre last Friday. The fact that a Presidential campaign is on is a perfect time to force the issue to be addressed NOW, not later!

Both candidates and many political leaders of both parties have avoided the subject, as it is seen as toxic, with the tremendous power and impact of the National Rifle Association, arguably the most powerful pressure group in American politics.

But as Bloomberg said, on the average, 12,000 people are murdered every year by gun violence, which adds up to 48,000 in a four year Presidential term.

We lost 58,000 in Vietnam over a period of nine years, it should be pointed out, and here, we would have close to that amount in just four years!

This is inexcusable and unacceptable, and the American people, at least those who are rational and reasonable, demand something be done about this carnage NOW!

Public opinion polls are making it clear that action must be taken soon to attempt to cut down this tragedy in the future, in the most dangerous society on the face of the earth, because of the power of the gun industry, which has no concern other than profits!

Is Ezra Klein Correct That We Are Witnessing The Worst Congress Ever? YES, By A Landslide!

Ronald 3 Comments

The 111th Congress (2009-2010) has been seen by many observers as the most productive Congress since the 89th Congress (1965-1966).

But now, the 112th Congress (2011-2012) has been declared by Ezra Klein, the brilliant commentator of the Washington Post and MSNBC, as the WORST Congress EVER!

Is Ezra Klein correct in his assessment? ABSOLUTELY!

The 112th Congress, as Klein says, has failed to deal with the problems facing the country, and has had as its major agenda the defeat of President Obama for a second term, and in the process, holding Americans hostage in the midst of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression!

Klein points out the following:

No Congress, with records back to the 80th Congress of 1947-1948, has produced such little passage of legislation, with the smallest being the 104th Congress (1995-1996), with 333 laws passed, and Democrat Bill Clinton being relected President in 1996 as a result.

Congress has only a ten percent approval rating, an all time low, with the Internal Revenue Service being at a popularity rate of 40 percent; Lawyers at 29 percent; President Richard Nixon during Watergate at 24 percent; Banks at 23 percent; the British Petroleum Oil Spill at 16 percent; and Paris Hilton at 15 percent, as examples!

The 112th Congress is the most polarized Congress since the end of Reconstruction in the 1870s, and we all know what came after–the GILDED AGE period of corporate dominance, not well looked upon by historians, and reminding us that we are now, in so many respects, in a new GILDED AGE, personified not only by the GOP control in the House of Representatives and in many state governments, but by the wealthiest Presidential nominee in American history, Mitt Romney, worth twice the assets of the last eight Presidents from Richard Nixon to George W. Bush combined!

The Republican majority in the House and Republican opposition in the Senate set back economic recovery in 2011 and right up to this moment in 2012, by any measure! And this Congress caused the loss of America’s credit rating, and seem ready to do it again!

Voting unsuccessfully to repeal the Affordable Care Act THIRTY THREE times is an exercise in futility, and the House of Representatives has wasted approximately EIGHTY hours in doing nothing, two work weeks when they could have been working on job creation legislation!

This Congress has NOT passed any appropriations bills by the deadline of October 1 in 2011, and will not by October 1, 2012, as things stand!

The failure to provide for the future of our infrastructure–roads, bridges, subway systems, and airports– is a major problem for the long term.

Two Congressional experts, Thomas Mann and Norman Ornstein, have written a book condemning the paralysis of the 112th Congress, saying it is the worst performance they have witnessed in 40 years of covering Congress!

In sum, the 112th Congress is an embarrassment, and there is no sign of any improvement in the future, particularly if the split Congress continues into the future!

The Misleading Public Opinion Polls: The Electoral College Will Decide The Election, Not A Public Opinion Poll!

Ronald 5 Comments

The public opinion poll industry is, sadly, misinforming the American people, when they try to tell us that the Presidential Election of 2012 is going to be a tight race, some even say, similar to 2000!

The facts are that Barack Obama has to deal with certain factors, including:

Massive HATRED by many people who simply will not accept that we have an African American President and will do whatever is required to defeat him.

The fact that the Citizens United case allows corporations SuperPACS, and billionaires to spend inordinate amounts of money to attempt to poison the atmosphere, and defeat Obama simply by the power of money.

The fact that the Republican Party is trying to disenfranchise millions in 24 states, by refusing to accept alternative forms of identification, such as college student IDs, but, as in Texas, for example, accepting gun permits as an acceptable ID. So we are having poor people, college students, the elderly, and minorities being told they cannot vote, unless they spend large amounts of money, time and travel to acquire what is required under various discriminatory state laws, that violate the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and are veiled poll taxes, outlawed under the 24th Amendment to the Constitution in 1964!

But Attorney General Eric Holder, despite being cited for contempt of Congress for flimsy reasons, is determined to do what is necessary to stop these violations of the right to vote!

In any case, only by race hatred, corrupt fund raising, and violations of the Constitution, amendments and civil rights laws, can the Republicans win, and that is NOT going to happen!

Remember the following, which this author has emphasized again and again!

The election will be won in the “swing states”, the “battleground states”, but there are enough BLUE states already to give Barack Obama a total of 242 electoral votes, 28 short of what is needed, a total of 270 electoral votes, to win the Presidency on November 6!

As stated many times before, these states are: Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Washington State, Oregon, California, and Hawaii–18 states and Washington, DC.

The “Swing States” or “Battleground States” are as follows: New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada–eleven states with a total of 129 electoral votes, and all of these states, except Missouri won by Barack Obama in 2008, with Missouri lost by just a few thousand votes to John McCain.

So IF Barack Obama wins Florida, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins Ohio and Virginia, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins Virginia and North Carolina, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins North Carolina and Ohio, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins Ohio and Missouri, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia, he wins the Presidency!

Obama is likely to win Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada right now, while having more trouble in North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and New Hampshire.

But he COULD win them all, adding Missouri to the other states he won last time! And he has a shot at winning Arizona, Montana and Georgia, as well, with the growing Hispanic and Latino vote in those states! So he COULD win a total of 32 states and Washington DC in this upcoming election!

So Obama COULD win MORE electoral votes than last time, which has been the case for EVERY two term President since Woodrow Wilson failed to do that in 1916, after winning his first term a century ago in 1912.!

Just for the record, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush are the Presidents who won a bigger second term electoral vote than their first term!

So, readers, stop obsessing and worrying, if you are a supporter of Barack Obama, and to those who are Mitt Romney supporters, stop being delusional and believing that your candidate will be the 45th President, because the 44th President of the United States is coming back: FOUR MORE YEARS FOR 44!

Why Barack Obama In 2012 Is NOT George H. W. Bush In 1992, NOR Jimmy Carter In 1980!

Ronald 2 Comments

With exactly four months to go until the Presidential Election of 2012, the job figures this month, showing a slowing of the economy, very little job growth, and a steady 8.2 percent unemployment rate, makes it clear that Barack Obama will not be able to bring the numbers under 8 percent before the election, and will have the highest unemployment rate of a President seeking re-election since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936.

So there are the hysterical political followers who fear that Obama is about to lose the election to Mitt Romney, but that is not going to happen!

Obama is compared to George H. W. Bush in 1992 and Jimmy Carter in 1980, with both of them losing, but the situations are VERY different!

Bush lacked any charisma, was running against a charismatic opponent, Bill Clinton, and had a serious, strong third party candidate in Ross Perot, which helped to cause his loss in the election. He also had accomplished very little beyond the Gulf War victory, and the passage of the Americans With Disabilities Act.

Jimmy Carter in 1980 was also lacking in charisma, was running against a very charismatic candidate, Ronald Reagan, who was able to unify people with his speaking skills, and faced the Iranian hostage crisis, and super high inflation due to the second Arab Oil Embargo, and also faced a third candidate in the Presidential race, Independent John Anderson.

Obama has tons of charisma; while Mitt Romney has absolutely NONE, not even being well liked as a personality as Clinton and Reagan were; and Obama faces no third party or independent challenger.

Obama is personally popular, which Bush and Carter were not, based on public opinion polls.

But having said that, it is clear that what Obama must do is take parts of three former Democratic Presidents, and make it part of his campaign.

Obama must give the GOP “hell” as Harry Truman did in 1948, and must push job plans and education and infrastructure spending by calling Congress into special session in September after the ocnventions, as Truman did, even though Truman knew and we know no such legislation will pass, but still put the Republicans on the defensive!

Obama must act like Franklin D. Roosevelt by saying he welcomes the hate of the GOP, since they refuse to work with him, and drop the “nice guy” image!

And Obama must take on a Lyndon B. Johnson image, that he will push and prod Congress by constant news conferences and speeches on the essential need for massive changes in America!

In taking on ideas of Truman, FDR, and LBJ, Obama would stir the enthusiasm of progressives and liberals, and the groups that might be lazy about voting, and would also draw many of the independents who would realize we have a President who really CARES about average Americans, as Truman, FDR and LBj demonstrated, and contrast it with Mitt Romney, who has made it clear he has no care or concern for more than the one percent at the top of our society!

House Republicans And Attorney General Eric Holder: A Travesty of Justice And A “Lynching” Of Our First African American Attorney General!

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It is shocking beyond belief that our first African American Attorney General Eric Holder, under our first African American President of the United States, Barack Obama, is facing a contempt of Congress vote on Thursday, the same day the Supreme Court issues its judgment of Obama Health Care legislation!

What has Eric Holder done wrong? He has refused to release internal documents regarding the failed, so called, “Fast and Furious” Mexican Drug Running setup begun by the Bush Administration, which sadly ended in the death of a border agent. Holder had held numerous meetings with the committee headed by California Republican Congressman Darrell Issa, and given documents, and Issa well knows that nothing corrupt has occurred, but is still on a rampage to destroy Holder’s reputation!

Holder, by withholding some sensitive documents, is doing nothing different than any Attorney General in the past, and many Attorneys General, including those under Warren G. Harding, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush, have been involved in controversial activities, that never led to a move to cite for contempt of Congress.

Rather than deal with the jobs issue, the Republican House under Speaker John Boehner is running amuck, making for the most disgraceful Congress in many decades, and helping to cause the lowest public opinion rating for Congress in history, since polls began!

Even if Holder is cited for contempt of Congress, that will simply make him a victim of his race, and the prejudice against Barack Obama.

Holder has been an excellent Attorney General, fighting against the discriminatory immigration laws of Arizona and Alabama; battling against the attempt in Florida and elsewhere to cut people from the voting rolls; and taking other stands that conservatives and Republicans hate!

If Speaker John Boehner has any sense, he will work to prevent such a contempt citation, and push Darrell Issa to stop his bullying, but sadly it is unlikely to happen, but will reverberate on the Republicans in November!

The Pure Ignorance And Stupidity Of Republican Voters Beyond Belief!

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In a new poll conducted by a Dartmouth College professor, 63 percent of Republicans believe that Iraq had Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs), which justified the invasion and war in Iraq from 2003-2011, despite absolute proof that no such weapons ever existed!

Also, 64 percent of Republicans believe that Barack Obama was born outside the United States, and therefore are “Birthers”!

Almost no Independents or Democrats believe either concept, and it shows a basic lack of reality and sanity on the part of Republicans who participated in the poll!

When other polls show that if someone watches or listens to no news at all, he or she is better informed than those who watch Fox News Channel, that shows us the “Know Nothingism” of Republican voters.

The idea that those who watch Jon Stewart on Comedy Channel are far better informed on the news and politics going on, than those who watch Fox News Channel, shows the danger we face–that ignorance and stupidity are becoming widespread throughout the Republican Party membership, and the officeholders are exploiting it for their own benefit, laughing behind the scenes as to just how moronic their supporters are, and the willingness to believe anything their ignorant, stupid supporters are capable of!

This is a danger to American democracy itself!

Barack Obama And Gay Marriage: Politics Or Principle?

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The American public seems to be very skeptical of the motivations of President Barack Obama, when he declared support of gay marriage a week ago.

A new public opinion poll indicates that 67 percent of those polled think the declaration was based on politics, compared to 24 percent who think it was based on principle.

There is no question that the declaration of support for gay marriage has created a new dynamic, which could affect the fall election for President.

Not only devoutly religious Catholics and evangelical Christians are vehemently against what Obama has declared, but also the African American community is split, as many blacks who are devoutly religious join white religious voters in opposition.

Also, older voters over 50, and many Hispanics and Latinos who are religious, are also not happy over what Obama has declared.

At the same time, younger voters under 35, single women under 50, college educated voters, a majority in the larger urban states (such as California, New York and Illinois), and obviously, gay voters, are supportive.

The danger to Obama is that his opportunity to win the Southern states he won in 2008 (Virginia, North Carolina, Florida) is now more in play, at least in theory. Also believed to be in play are Indiana and Nevada and Colorado, other “swing” states that Obama won in 2008.

At the same time, Ohio and Iowa are thought to be still in Obama’s camp, due to the economic improvement in those states, along with other Midwestern states, including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. Pennsylvania still seems safe for Obama, while New Hampshire might be in play.

Let us assume all of the above as stated is fact. How would that affect the electoral map?

Obama starts out with what seems to be 227 electoral votes that are certain, including:

Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, California, Hawaii–18 states and DC.

If one adds Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Iowa, it adds 44 electoral votes, making for a total of 271 electoral votes, one more than needed to win the Presidency! That would mean 21 states and DC went for the President.

Now, let’s be frank! Can one really conceive that Obama will lose all of the following: Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Indiana, Colorado, Nevada–a total of 87 electoral votes?

And beyond all this, remember the factor of LIKEABILITY! Romney is not well liked, and people do not feel that he is someone to trust to be out there for average Americans, that he does not and cannot understand the daily struggle of a majority of Americans who are not rich, and never will be rich!

Barack Obama has 60 percent of the nation liking him, as compared to Romney’s 31 percent.

Barack Obama is overwhelmingly favored by Hispanics and Latinos, single women, a majority of those under 35, organized labor, environmentalists, the college educated, and African Americans.

And now the Americans Elect group, which hoped to get a centrist, independent candidate on the ballot online, has come to the realization that there is no one strong or well known enough to be considered as its candidate, and the organization has folded.

So Barack Obama still has a massive edge, even with the issue of gay marriage possibly muddying the waters somewhat!

The Democratic Party Edge In The Electoral College Is Reality!

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In the midst of all of the public opinion polls about popularity of the Presidential candidates, one is tempted to forget that the Electoral College will decide who the next President will be, and the Democrats have a vast advantage since they have a clear edge in most of the larger states with many more electoral votes.

If one candidate wins the top ELEVEN electoral vote states, he wins the election, even if he were to face a massive defeat in popular votes in the other 39 states!

Of course, no one is likely to win all of the top eleven states, but the point is that the Electoral College gives great power to the larger populated states, and all that is required is to win one more popular vote in a state than your opponent to win all of the electoral votes of that state.

So if one looks at the top eleven states, we discover that the Democrats and President Barack Obama have a guaranteed win in California (55), New York (29), Illinois (20), and New Jersey (14) for a total of 118 electoral votes.

Obama also has an edge to win in Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), and North Carolina (15) for a total of 69 electoral votes.

If Obama wins these eight states, he has 187 electoral votes already, not counting other Northeastern, New England, and Pacific Coast states that he is widely expected to win.

The three states that might go Republican are Texas (38), Florida (29), and Georgia (16), but Florida could go Democratic, and even Georgia is considered a long shot for the Democrats.. These three states together have 83 electoral votes. If Obama won Florida, as he did in 2008, and the eight states he is expected to win, which he also won in 2008, he would have 216 electoral votes from just those nine states!

So together, the top eleven states have 270 electoral votes, EXACTLY what is needed to win the White House!

So forget popular vote public opinion polls, as the odds of Mitt Romney winning the election in the Electoral College, let alone the popular vote totals, is not worth betting on, once one realizes the reality of the Electoral College.

Further proof of the difficulty for Republicans to win a vast majority of the Electoral College is the fact of the massive Electoral College wins by Bill Clinton twice (370 and 379) and Barack Obama once (365), while George W. Bush could not hit over 271 and 286 in electoral votes in 2000 and 2004!

The odds are much greater that Barack Obama will surpass his 365 electoral votes of 2008 in 2012, just as Bill Clinton improved his second time around!