Public Opinion Polls

Rare Popularity Of Former “Living” Presidents In Past Century: TR, Ike, Reagan, Clinton

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The Presidency tends to cause the decline of popularity of those who hold that office, because they have to make controversial and difficult decisions which undermine their image after four or eight years in office.

In the past century, in the time of modern media exposure, which makes the Presidency a national concern on a daily basis, most Presidents, upon leaving office, have seen their public opinion rating collapse, and usually, only after they die, does their image, and respect for the difficult decisions they made, revive their popularity among both scholarly experts and the general public.

This discussion, of course, must eliminate those Presidents who did not survive the office, including Warren G. Harding, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and John F. Kennedy. However, FDR and JFK would remain highly popular in death on a regular basis since their deaths, while Harding’s brief popularity after his tragic death collapsed upon learning of the sex and other scandals during his Presidency, and he has not recovered in ratings by any group.

The only Presidents who remained generally popular after leaving office were Theodore Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.

William Howard Taft, Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush left office after defeat, and none of them were well regarded after their time in office. Carter and Bush had the bad luck of being followed by popular Presidents Reagan and Clinton, and Bush has had the bad luck of having both his predecessor and successor well regarded, making his time in office look quite unimpressive by comparison.

Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge and Lyndon B. Johnson left office, with each under a cloud of disrepute, with Wilson seeing the defeat of the Versailles Treaty ratification and membership in the League of Nations; Coolidge seeing the coming of the Great Depression crash on Wall Street within months of his retirement; and Johnson having to bear the burden of the Vietnam War: and all three died within four years of retirement, highly unpopular.

Taft regained respect for his service as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court; Richard Nixon gained respect for his foreign policy expertise in his long 20 years of retirement, but did not gain popularity for the rest of his lifetime; Harry Truman also had 20 years of retirement, but only gained popularity and respect after his death; Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter started to be regarded better as the years went by, with Carter about to surpass Herbert Hoover in longevity after the Presidency, but still condemned by many experts and the general public; and George W. Bush remains unpopular and seems resigned to the fact that he may not gain popularity or respect until he has passed from the scene.

Eisenhower and Reagan retained their public popularity in their post Presidency despite scholarly criticism of their time in office, and both are now regarded more highly, even by scholars, than they were when they were retired and alive.

TR and Clinton share a special bond, as both were young when leaving office; both were highly verbal and opinionated and constantly made news; both had charisma and were loved by the general public in their post retirement years; and TR actually ran for President on a third party line, while Bill Clinton would love to run again, as many Americans wish he could be President again, but of course, the 22nd Amendment prevents that, so instead, the push for his wife, Hillary Clinton, to try for the Presidency again in 2016 is growing!

The Seven “Swing States” And Four “Red” States Which Will Decide The Presidential Election Of 2012

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Many ill informed people might think that the Presidential Election of 2012 is nearly even, based on some public opinion polls that show the popular vote close or tied, particularly the case with Fox News Polls, which tend to distort reality, but are believed by those who see that so called “news channel”, and the “poison and hate” it disposes, as being absolute Gospel!

But in reality, the election is NOT close at this point, with the decision based on seven “swing” states, all of which Barack Obama won last time, and all seven in which he has a clear lead at this point.

Of course, no one can live on polls at any moment of time, and it will be essential for Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and others who speak for the Administration to get out there and be actively campaigning and spreading the word over the next six months, but the fact that Mitt Romney has major problems with Independents, women, Hispanics and Latinos, Young people, and Evangelical Christians, make it clear that he has a massive set of challenges to overcome Barack Obama, and this is not the time to put betting money on the former Massachusetts Governor.

The seven states that will be most paid attention to, and visited by both campaigns over the next six months are Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

Additionally, four “red” states have a shot at switching to Obama, with those states in order of likelihood to switch including Missouri, Arizona, Montana and Georgia.

So instead of listening to propaganda, realize that it is these seven “swing” states and four “red” states that are the crux of the election!

Does Marco Rubio Represent The Hispanic-Latino Community, One Of Six Americans? NO!

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A lot of attention has been paid to Senator Marco Rubio of Florida in the past 18 months since he was elected to the US Senate by the Sunshine State’s voters.

Rubio, just about to become 41 next month, is seen as the “shining star” of the Republican Party’s future, often called the “Cuban” Barack Obama!

Rubio is handsome, charismatic, dynamic, and has an attractive family, and he is loved by the right wing conservatives in the Republican Party. He promoteds the conservative cause in an effective fashion, and is remembered for his Florida state legislative career, including a stint as the House Speaker. He is someone who is likely to be a star figure in the party for decades to come, and he is seen as extremely ambitious, sometimes imagined as the first Hispanic President of the United States.

Rubio has been the center of attention for many months, as a front runner for the Vice Presidency, and many think Mitt Romney will select him. But before any such event happens, which is certainly possible, let us look at the unvarnished facts about Marco Rubio.

The idea that Hispanics and Latinos will rush to support Mitt Romney, if he selects Rubio for Vice President, is laughable!

Polls show that Barack Obama is favored in Florida, and that if Rubio is added to the Romney ticket, the lead for Obama grows wider!

Just because in a Senate race Rubio is able to win, does not mean he would help the Romney candidacy.

Rubio would outshine Romney on the campaign trail, and the question is does Romney really want that?

Also, Rubio would not be a good Number Two, as his ego and personality would make him a bad supporting team member.

The questions surrounding his ethics would get in the way, including expenditures while House Speaker in Florida, and the misleading campaign story that his parents escaped Fidel Castro, when they actually migrated from Cuba two years before Castro came to power.

Rubio’s hypocrisy regarding the DREAM Act stands out too, as he has always been opposed to the allowing of children of illegal immigrants to become citizens by military service or graduating college, but now wants a substitute DREAM Act, which allows those activities, but does not give citizenship automatically, an obvious campaign ploy!

Above all, though, is the issue whether Marco Rubio can represent the Hispanic-Latino community as a son of Cuban immigrants who came legally in the mid 1950s.

One needs to realize that only 14 percent of Hispanics and Latinos, in a recent poll, support Mitt Romney, and no matter what he does, that number will not probably rise even to John McCain’s 31 percent in 2008, and certainly not George W. Bush’s 44 percent in 2004. With the hard line on immigration reform supported by Romney and Rubio, why would any larger number support Romney because of Rubio?

And also the fact emerges that Cuban Americans number only about 1.8 million out of a Census figure of 50.5 million for Hispanics and Latinos, meaning only about 3.5 percent of this group are Cuban. What makes anyone think that Mexican-Americans, about 64 percent of this total, and Puerto Ricans, about 10 percent, and all of the other myriad groups of Hispanics and Latinos, are going to relate to someone who is only one out of about 30 members of the broad based group in this nation?

Romney would gain little from selecting Rubio, but Rubio would become the automatic front runner for 2016 if he ran with Romney, even on a losing ticket. Keep this in mind as Rubio acts as if he does not want the Vice Presidential nomination, but at the same time, is acting as if he does!

The “Tantalizing” Concept Of Condoleezza Rice For Vice President: A Mirage!

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A CNN poll of Republican and Independent voters as to who they would like to see as the GOP Vice Presidential nominee came up with a surprise Number One–former Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice!

This is a major surprise, as Rice’s name has not been listed as a realistic possibility, and she has not shown any interest in the past in running for public office, preferring to live the scholarly life at Stanford University, after eight grueling years in the midst of stress and tension as a major figure in the George W. Bush Administration.

Having been involved in a rivalry with Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Rice seemed perturbed at the memoirs of both men, and a need to defend her record and stands on issues. To believe that she would wish to get into the political fray is beyond comprehension of any intelligent observer.

But the thought of Rice running is “tantalizing” to many, as there are definite pluses, but also, however, minuses if she ran.

The pluses include:

Rice has broad and extensive experience in all areas of foreign and national security policy, a major plus for Mitt Romney, who has none of it.

Rice is highly intelligent, and would be a great contrast to Sarah Palin, the VIce Presidential nominee four years ago.

Rice, as a black woman, would possibly fill the image of diversity, even though most blacks would not vote for Romney because Rice is on the ticket. Maybe somewhat more women would vote if she was on the ticket, but not very much.

The minuses are:

Rice is a reminder of the George W. Bush Administration, and its failure to prevent September 11, and its long, drawn out wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Rice has no political experience, and has never been involved in domestic affairs responsibility of any kind.

Rice would likely be a problem for many Republicans, because she is pro choice on abortion and open minded on gay rights, two areas that would disqualify her for many hard line right wing Republicans and conservatives.

Rice is a strong willed person, and would not fit well into being a Vice President under a person, Mitt Romney, who seems to have traditional views of the roles of women, which Rice does not fit very well.

So it is interesting to think about the possibility of Condoleezza Rice, but don’t put betting money on the idea that she would indeed run for Vice President with Mitt Romney!

The “Buffett Rule” Is The “Reagan Rule”, But Instead Cut Food Stamps: Republican Party Message To America!

Ronald 2 Comments

The “Buffett Rule”, the idea that those who earn more than a million dollars a year should pay a tax rate of 30 percent, more than their secretaries and other workers, was defeated in the Senate on a party line vote on Monday, with only Susan Collins of Maine voting with Democrats, and Mark Pryor of Arkansas voting with the Republicans, and 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster being unable to be accomplished.

Of course, the “Buffett Rule” is really a restatement of the “Reagan Rule”, the assertion of the 40th President that one should not expect an employee to pay a higher level of taxes than his or her employer. It is an embarrassment to the GOP of 2012, that they are actually defying their icon, their god, their “savior”, who they claim to be following and worshiping, but only when they choose to follow his lead. The fact that 72 percent of the American people in polls support the “Buffett Rule” has no effect at all on the Republicans, as they argue that $50 billion over ten years collected if the “Buffett Rule” went into effect is a “drop in the bucket”!

Meanwhile, the Republicans wish to cut spending on food stamps, the main source of funding for nutrition for poor families, attacked as socialism, but they insist that cutting it over ten years, saving $33.2 billion, is substantial, and must be done as part of the Paul Ryan budget plan in the House of Representatives.

The Republican Party has no conscience, as they are willing to take from the poor to give more tax cuts to the rich. They are Robin Hood in reverse, with no second thoughts!

So 4,000 families will benefit from the defeat of the “Buffett Rule”, while $46.4 million Americans, who are already dependent on food stamps for survival will see an 11 percent cut in monthly benefits after September 1.

The long term unemployed, who lost their jobs through no fault of their own, will now suffer even worse, as we now live in a society in which government leaders do not care about what hunger means, and do not care about the desperation of millions left behind, a large percentage of them children and single mothers, as long as the elite continue to get tax cuts!

The Likeability Factor: Obama 56, Romney 27!

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A new poll shows that on the issue of Likeability, Barack Obama scores 56 percent to Mitt Romney’s 27 percent!

Realize what this means: Romney has the lowest likeabiity rating in modern Presidential election history!

This is not a laughing matter, and the more one sees Mitt Romney, the more one tends to dislike him.

The author used to think that Mitt Romney was the best of the group running for President, except for former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, and he seemed moderate enough to be barely acceptable, if he were to win. This is what the author used to write on this blog, but NO MORE!

The man is insufferable, obnoxious, elitist, snobbish, arrogant, phony, unpleasant, uncaring, distrustful, unprincipled, and has a sense of entitlement. Are those enough adjectives?

Notice that the top leaders of the party are now, grudgingly, coming around to endorse him, but they do not sound thrilled or excited about Mitt Romney. He does not inspire loyalty, commitment, or emotion in any Republican, all of whom, by their wording and body language, show they are resigned that Romney will be the nominee, and simply see him as the only alternative to get Barack Obama out of the Presidency.

The reality is though that Barack Obama is NOT going to be leaving the White House until January 20, 2017, as the American people do not LIKE Mitt Romney, and nothing he can do, after all of the verbal flubs he has made in the past year, will be able to resuscitate his candidacy, which enthuses NO ONE!

Lack Of Enthusiasm For Mitt Romney Within Republican Party: Danger Sign For November!

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Mitt Romney is the least popular GOP Presidential candidate in modern history, ten points lower than John McCain was in 2008.

He is losing among women, Independents, Hispanics and Latinos, based on many public opinion polls.

He has a lack of enthusiasm among religious voters, Southern whites, Midwesterners, conservatives, and even young voters

His major support are those over $100,000 income, corporate interests, and people of his own Mormon faith in states such as Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, and Arizona.

Romney simply has no natural constituency, and as things stand now, he could very well lose by a massive landslide, with Barack Obama winning close to his electoral vote total of 365 in 2008, and possibly winning more electoral votes!

Mitt Romney has become, at least at this point, a totally uninspiring candidate, and the odds of his recovery to the point of winning the Presidency seem extremely remote!

While Gone In DC, The Republican Presidential Race Ended!

Ronald 4 Comments

While the author was gone on vacation in Washington, DC, the Republican race finally came to an end.

Now, some of you might say that Ron Paul is still in the race, but let’s be serious: Mitt Romney is the GOP Presidential nominee, with both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum having stopped campaigning.

This does not mean that Mitt Romney has an easy road to the nomination, as he still needs several hundred delegates, and has not received the endorsement of either Gingrich or Santorum.

Newt Gingrich left the race primarily for economic issues, and Rick Santorum left due to the illness of his youngest daughter, Bella, and his realization that he might very well lose the Pennsylvania Primary two weeks from now.

By both leaving the race, they remain eligible for consideration in 2016, if Romney does not win the White House, even though one would have to say that for either to believe in their hearts that they have a real chance to be President in the future is purely delusional!

But Mitt Romney now has to face the reality, that in seeking the GOP nomination and selling his soul to the right wing of his party, he has lost credibility completely among middle of the road Americans, and yet is not trusted by the right wing or the evangelical Christians who look on his Mormon faith as a cult.

So Romney cannot be sure that evangelicals and conservatives will actually vote for him in November, and therefore, could lose some of the South and Midwest.

But he also trails terribly behind Barack Obama with women, Hispanics and Latinos, and Independents, and it will be hard to recoup.

And in polls, Romney is not well liked or trusted, and comes across as distant, aloof, and not able to relate to us.

And with Tax Day coming at the end of this week, the Democrats will do their best to remind us that Romney has not released his tax returns, except for the year 2010, while providing John McCain with 23 years of returns when he was considered a possible running mate by McCain in 2008. Why not release all of these tax returns?

The answer is that it is clear that Romney has something to hide, including the reports that he has loads of his $250 million fortune in the Cayman Islands and in Swiss banks!

That makes Romney look very unpatriotic, and unwilling to do his fair share to help the nation, seeing paying higher taxes due to his good fortune, as something that a rich person should feel for the blessing that he was able to accomplish his wealth, and owes it to the country to help its future, rather than just go by the legal limitation of the minimum he needs to pay, due to accounting tricks!

Romney is now said to be “mischievous and naughty” by his wife Anne, often acting like one of their sons, but that does not ring true, and even if so, it does not make up for his unwillingness to understand the plight of the average American, and his stiffness and aloofness and reserve around people he cannot easily relate to.

Americans like to feel that they like their President, and Romney is, unfortunately, simply not a warm and pleasant personality.

That, above all, is his ultimate doom, as it was for Thomas E. Dewey in 1948, who Romney looks more like by the day–an intelligent, qualified person who simply could not relate to the American people he wished to govern.

And get this: both Dewey and Romney grew up in Michigan! Dewey’s campaign against Harry Truman in 1948 went from a landslide lead to a total collapse, against a President who gave the Republican Party “hell”. In the case of Romney, he is way behind with little prospect of recovery, but also running against an incumbent President who is copying the Truman method of giving the Republicans “hell”!

Republicans, Women And Hispanics: Antagonism Self Induced And Irretrievable!

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The Republican Party has been suicidal in this Presidential campaign, and likely nominee Mitt Romney, as well as Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, have all effectively killed off the chances of the party wooing large percentages of two key voting groups–women and Hispanics.

Joe Scarborough, former Florida Congressman and host of Morning Joe on MSNBC has warned the party of the self induced damage they are doing, but the party leadership and candidates have been tone deaf to it.

And now a new series of polls show Mitt Romney way down in percentage with both women and Hispanics, and with seven months to go, no one, realistically, can see how the former Massachusetts Governor is going to turn the tide in his favor.

Trying to appeal to the right wing has harmed Romney in the nation, while not convincing the right wing to like him.

In the South and Midwest, in more rural and evangelical Christian areas, Romney has been unable to win, or promote loyalty for his candidacy. It is still doubtful that large numbers of these voters will come out for Romney in the Fall campaign.

So the story goes that he must pick a very conservative running mate for the Vice Presidency to appeal to these right wingers, but if so, it will only guarantee that Romney will lose the middle, the center of the population–including women, Hispanics, and also the all important Independents.

Without women, Hispanics, and Independents, how is Romney going to win the all important “swing states” in the South, the Midwest, and the Mountain States, as well as New Hampshire?

The answer is that the election is effectively over, as Romney cannot appeal to the “swing states” adequately, and cannot count on strong right wing support either.

What it comes down to is that Romney, by being a person who one cannot trust as to his views and beliefs, has effectively alienated the middle, while not being trusted even now by the right wing of his party.

And if, by some miracle, Romney won, he would see his dark hair turn grey quickly, as he would have no natural constituency to support him!

The Democrats would fight to weaken him, and the Republicans would feel no loyalty, and would work to move him to the extreme right, making it impossible to get anything done!

If one thinks Barack Obama has had troubles getting things done, imagine a President Romney trying to get things done, whether with Democratic or Republican control of the Congress!

Florida In Play For Democrats In 2012: A Shock To Republicans!

Ronald 1 Comment

Florida has become in many ways the center of right wing conservatism, what with the election of Governor Rick Scott, Senator Marco Rubio, and Congressman Allen West in the midterm 2010 elections.

The state legislature is about three fourths Republican as well, and only six Democrats serve Florida in the House of Representatives.

No one is saying that the Democrats are about to take over state politics, as that will be a long haul, but public opinion polls show that Barack Obama leads both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in state polls about the Presidential election, and that Democratic Senator Bill Nelson has a big lead over Congressman Connie Mack IV, and that former appointed Senator George Lemieux is not even in the equation for the upcoming race.

The odds for Lois Frankel to overcome Adam Hasner for the Palm Beach County seat, that West held before he chose to move to a new congressional district in northern Palm Beach County and Martin and St. Lucie Counties, is seen as very good. And West is facing a major challenge in a young, charismatic CPA named Patrick Erin Murphy.

This is probably due to the improving economy, and the growing alienation nationwide of Independents, non Cuban Hispanics, and women to the GOP agenda.

Since Florida is the ultimate “swing state”, this might improve the possibility of Senator Rubio as the Vice Presidential running mate of Mitt Romney, even though Rubio keeps on saying that he has no interest, at age 41, rising to that level.

Florida will certainly be paid a lot of attention in this year’s political races!