Public Opinion Polls

Mitt Romney Is Now The GOP Nominee, Or Is He? And If So, Is It Worth Being the GOP Nominee?

Every indication is that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will be the GOP Presidential nominee to run against President Barack Obama in November, but is that really true?

Romney has been endorsed by just about everyone imaginable, including, most recently, former President George H. W. Bush and Florida Senator Marco Rubio these past two days.

Romney has a major lead in delegates over former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and it seems clear that if Santorum cannot win Wisconsin this coming Tuesday and his home state of Pennsylvania on April 24 (a start which defeated him for re-election for the Senate by 18 percentage points in 2006), he is done, although social conservatives adore him.

Newt Gingrich, the former House Speaker, has only won South Carolina and Georgia, and has now cut back his campaign in a massive way, and is raising money by charging ordinary citizens for signed pictures, a quite despicable, egotistical, and uncouth event, which only adds to his image as an obnoxious individual, who no one really wants to be President, because he simply loves himself too much and comes across as reckless and unstable. But he could present an annoyance at the Tampa Convention of the Republican Party in late August.

So Romney seems safe, even though he is unlikely to gain enough delegates before the convention opens, and is not well liked or trusted by many Republicans..He comes across as awkward, distant, plastic, not genuine nor sincere, and far from lovable!

And Romney tends to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, as every time he wins, he or his staff manages to botch the result by what they say in the next 24 hours! He talks too much about his money and assets, shows no concern for the average American who is struggling in this economy, acts like a boss instead of one of us, tries to tell jokes and is not one bit funny, and even when he tries to sing, to match Barack Obama singing like Al Green, he is totally flat and,. frankly, shows he cannot carry a tune, so comes across as ridiculous and embarrassing to himself and others. And also, deciding to build a tremendous mansion in La Jolla, California, tremendously large because of Romney’s five children and numerous grandchildren, and having an elevator for cars, really undermines the concept that Romney can claim to be one of us! Do all families with five or more children and numerous grandchildren need to have so much space, or life is difficult? And why flaunt your wealth when you are facing election, instead of waiting to next year when he is either in or out of the White House, and it would not be a controversial issue, as it is in the election year? Why does Romney not understand this? It is as if he is from outer space, rather than our every day lives.

And another problem, being a Mormon, he has made clear, and we have no reason to doubt him, that he does not smoke, does not drink alcohol, does not drink coffee, does not use illegal drugs, and does not swear.

These “puritanical” characteristics are certainly admirable, but also quite unbelievable! It is one thing not to smoke or use illegal drugs, but to say Romney NEVER has had an alcoholic drink, NEVER has drank coffee, and has NEVER, when angry or banged his toes, sworn or cursed, is beyond human understanding!

How is that possible, no matter what the tenets of the religion of Mormonism are? It makes Romney seem even more distant, more unreal, than if he actually admitted, “OK, I have at times drank liquor, like an occasional coffee, and being human, of course, I have, regrettably, cursed or sworn at times!”

Do we want a perfect President? So what if Barack Obama has smoked, George W. Bush has drank too much in the past, Bill Clinton tried marijuna; all Presidents probably have drank coffee, and probably every President has sworn or cursed?

Presidents are human, and trying to claim perfection, makes Mitt Romney seem ever more impossible to relate to, or believe. And imagine if later we find that Mitt Romney is lying to us!

These are the problems that Mitt Romney faces, as he becomes the nominee, but is behind Barack Obama in EVERY public opinion poll in “swing states”! What is going to convince the American people to vote Mitt Romney in as our 45th President?

The Supreme Court And Public Opinion: Not The Job Of The Judiciary!

A new poll, commissioned by the New York Times, shows that 38 percent want the 2010 Health Care law overturned entirely; 29 percent want the requirement that nearly all Americans obtain health insurance overturned; and only 26 percent want to keep the entire law in place.

At the same time, when it comes down to specifics, the American people support the law. 85 percent approve the requirement that health insurance companies cover those with existing medical conditions or illnesses; 68 percent support allowing children to stay on their parents’ policies until age 26; and 77 percent support offering discounts to reduce the Medicare prescription drug coverage gap, called the “donut hole”.

At the same time, 48 percent say they find confusing how the law will affect them and their families, while 47 percent say they understand the law.

What does this tell us? It tells us that the American people, as a whole, have no clue as to what this law does, and this is partially the fault of the Obama Administration and the Democrats, but it is also the fault of the opposition Republicans, conservative talk radio, Fox News Channel, and the powerful corporate interests that want the law defeated, and really don’t care about the fact that 50 million Americans have no health care except the emergency room, if they end up there. And if they die because of lack of health care, so be it, is the attitude of these special interest groups.

And now there is discussion of the fact that the United States Supreme Court should overturn the law because of the uneducated and confused public opinion.

But that is NOT the job of the Supreme Court, to listen to public opinion, but instead to LEAD public opinion in the proper direction!

If the John Roberts led Supreme Court overturns the law, they will be condemned in history for having kept us the ONLY major industrial democracy in the world to refuse to cover all citizens on a question of life and death!

The Supreme Court is not designed to be popular, and neither are the circuit courts below them. Their job is to interpret the Constitution, and do what is right for the American people, whether popular or not..

If one had polled public opinion, and in some cases it was actually done, the following would not have occurred:

End of racial segregation in public schools in 1954
Provide for privacy rights for couples to use contraceptives in 1965
End of ban on interracial marriage in 1967
Allowance of abortion rights in 1973
Provision to advance women and minorities because of past discrimination in 1977
Giving of privacy rights to gays and lesbians, not just straight people in 2003

These are an issue of social justice and what is right morally, and the same situation applies to the issue of health care.

Popularity should NEVER be a factor in court decisions, and if the Court is unpopular, so be it!

That is why the courts are not elected, as the ignorance and emotion of the masses should never be a basis of constitutional interpretation or human rights.

The Supreme Court has made America a better place, precisely because it has done what the American people may not have appreciated at the time, but was a necessary action, over and over again!

The Gasoline Mythology And Barack Obama’s Public Opinion Ratings

After having improved his public opinion ratings in recent months, with the improvement in unemployment numbers and other successes, suddenly Barack Obama has witnessed a dramatic drop in poll ratings, due primarily to the rise in gasoline prices.

Apparently, the people polled feel that Barack Obama is out to cost them more money in purchase of gasoline for their cars and trucks.

This is totally preposterous, as the facts are that NO PRESIDENT can control the price of gasoline, which is controlled by foreign conditions in the Middle East and elsewhere, and by manipulation of prices by the oil companies and their wealthy supporters, including the Koch Brothers.

The oil companies have heard that Obama wants to cut down oil subsidies on taxypayers’s backs, so this is the way they can undermine him, while making even more obscene profits than ever before.

And of course, the instability over Iran’s development of nuclear capability also contributes to uncertainty, when it comes to the future of oil prices, mostly based on hysteria and panic, rather than reason.

This is not the first time that a President has been undermined by oil prices that he could not control. Ask former President Jimmy Carter about how oil prices rising in 1979 and 1980 harmed his quest for re-election.

Nothing could please conservatives and Republicans more than to see Obama defeated, and then the oil lobby would be in full control of the White House and Capitol Hill, and we would be far worse off!

The gasoline prices will simply make Obama’s battle for re-election tougher, as he will have to try to reason with voters that he has no control over that issue, which again, I wish to reiterate, is the truth!

Nine Months To Presidential Election, And Obama Is Over 50% Support Against Mitt Romney!

With nine months to go to the Presidential Election Of 2012, President Barack Obama has broken a barrier that is very significant.

The President has, for the first time ever in an election poll, the Washington Post–ABC News Poll, hit a majority of registered voters, with 51 percent to 45 for Mitt Romney, his likely GOP opponent. Obama had last been over 50 percent in May in a non election poll, when he was able to accomplish the killing of Osama Bin Laden.

At the same time, among all Americans, Obama has 52 percent to 43 for Romney, and among independents, Obama leads by the razor thin margin of 48 to 47, his first lead.

Obama is ahead of Romney on issues including who would better protect the middle class, handle foreign policy, and fight terrorism.

Romney is seen as out of touch with average Americans, and having not paid his fair share of taxes. But his business experience makes many voters feel that he could handle the economy better, and on job creation, the candidates are seen as equal. Of course, the good jobs report in January helps Obama, and if it continues, could give him a lead over Romney in later polls on economic policy.

The timing looks good for Obama to win the election, unless there is a major economic downturn, or a major foreign policy crisis that he is seen as mishandling.

The Growing Hysteria Over Newt Gingrich’s Candidacy For President

As a result of Newt Gingrich’s smashing victory in South Carolina, the panic and hysteria within conservative ranks and in the Republican Party establishment has grown by leaps and bounds. Critics suggest that Newt as the potential nominee, with an almost 60 percent unfavorable rating in national public opinion polls, about the same as when he was Speaker of the House fifteen years ago, and was on his way out as a result of a conservative Republican move against him in the House of Representatives, will lead to a massive defeat and bring down Republicans in both houses of Congress.

The list is long who is against Gingrich, with an incomplete list following in no special order.

George H. W. Bush, former President of the United States
Tom Ridge, former Secretary of Homeland Security and Pennsylvania Governor
Chris Christie, New Jersey Governor
Kelly Ayotte, New Hampshire Senator
Nikki Haley, South Carolina Governor
Tim Pawlenty, former Minnesota Governor
Haley Barbour, former Mississippi Governor and Republican National Chairman
Jon Huntsman, former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China
Mark Kirk, Illinois Senator
John McCain, Arizona Senator
Tom Coburn, Oklahoma Senator
Joe Scarborough, former Florida Congressman and MSNBC Talk Show Host
Susan Molinari, former New York Congresswoman
Rush Limbaugh, Conservative Radio Talk Show Host
Ann Coulter, Conservative Activists
Charles Krauthammer, Conservative Activist and Fox News Channel Contributor
Bill Kristol, Publisher of Weekly Standard and Fox News Contributor
David Brooks, NY Times Journalist
Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal Journalist and Reagan Speechwriter
George Will, Conservative Journalist and ABC News Contributor
Peter King, New York Congressman
Glenn Beck, Conservative Radio Talk Show Host
Brit Hume, Fox News Channel Contributor
Jonah Goldberg, Conservative Author and Activist
Roy Blunt, Missouri Senator
Scott Brown, Massachusetts Senator
Orrin Hatch, Utah Senator
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska Senator
Rob Portman, Ohio Senator
John Thune, South Dakota Senator
Bob McDonnell, Virginia Governor
Dan Quayle, former Vice President
Bob Dole, former Kansas Senator and Presidential Nominee in 1996
Norm Coleman, former Minnesota Senator
John Danforth, former Missouri Senator
Elizabeth Dole, former North Carolina Senator and Cabinet Member
Judd Gregg, former New Hampshire Senator
John Sununu, former White House Chief of Staff and New Hampshire Governor
Gordon Smith, former Oregon Senator
Jim Talent, former Missouri Senator
John Sununu, Jr, former New Hampshire Senator
David Frum, conservative journalist and former aide to George W. Bush
George Voinovich, former Ohio Senator
Dennis Hastert, former Speaker of the House of Representatives
Rick Lazio, former New York Congressman
James Baker, former Secretary of State and White House Chief of Staff
Robert Bork, former Reagan Supreme Court nominee
John Bolton, former United Nations Ambassador

This list of critics, all supporters of Mitt Romney, fear a calamity in the making, but the battle to overcome Gingrich seems likely to be a long, and possibly, unsuccessful one.

Some predict that a Gingrich candidacy will be similar to Barry Goldwater in 1964, causing a split that will not easily be healed in the short term future.

The Romney Vulnerability Factor In Play As South Carolina Primary Is Near

Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts Governor, and supposed front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination, has has a rough week.

First, he performed poorly in the Monday night South Carolina debate sponsored by Fox News Channel, being constantly on the defensive due to attacks by his rivals for the nomination.

As news came out all week about Bain Capital, and the fact that Romney, while refusing to release his tax returns anytime soon, admitted that he only paid 15 percent on his investment income, and “only” earned $364,000 in speaking fees, his polls started to suffer.

Now, today, Rick Perry has dropped out of the Presidential race and endorsed Newt Gingrich. And Rick Santorum has been declared the winner of the Iowa Caucuses by 34 votes, after trailing by 8 votes to Romney.

With Gingrich gaining support in the public opinion polls in South Carolina because of his strong debate performance, and now with Perry’s endorsement of Gingrich, it is more likely that the former Speaker of the House could defeat Romney in South Carolina.

Since 1980, every Republican winner of South Carolina’s primary has gone on to be the GOP Presidential nominee. So if Romney loses, after being declared the loser in Iowa, and only winning what is basically his “home” state, New Hampshire, suddenly Mitt Romney will be extremely shaky and vulnerable in his quest for the Republican Presidential nomination.

The Sudden Rise of Senator Rick Santorum As Possible GOP Presidential Nominee!

With the Iowa Caucuses 24 hours away, it is very clear that with all of the public opinion polls that have taken place in the past six months, that again, while they are interesting and good discussion pieces, it does not guarantee that what these polls claim are the views of the voters will actually work out in practice.

Who would have thought that former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, long regarded as insignificant and having no chance to win, is now in a position of possibly ending up winning the Iowa Caucuses? His surge the past week has come at precisely the right time with the actual vote about to occur!

But when one hears that possibly 41 percent of those who intend to vote are not settled on who to back, it proves once again the fickle and confused nature of many voters, possibly more so in a tough time economically as we are experiencing, due to the collapse of the economy in 2008 and since.

So a good looking, friendly, warm candidate who comes across as genuine and real, as Rick Santorum does, suddenly has a real shot at winning the GOP Presidential nomination.

This does not mean that progressives should be happy at Santorum being the possible winner in Iowa, and having a good chance to be the candidate of the Republican Party. He appeals to social conservatives, highly religious voters, due to his stand against gay rights in all forms and details; his total anti abortion stands from the beginning of his political career; and his decision to home school his seven children.

The point is that Santorum might come across on the surface as a “nice” guy who is accessible, does not dodge questions from voters, looks at people he is speaking to with a direct eye on them, and appears more sincere in his views than anyone, and far less of a “flip flopper” than possibly anyone in the race.

But not only Mitt Romney, the supposed GOP front runner, but also Barack Obama, needs to be aware that a Santorum candidacy is a threat to the mainstream of the nation and the Republican Party!

If he is nominated, he should, in theory, with his extreme right wing views, the most since Barry Goldwater in 1964, be easy for Barack Obama to defeat.

To believe, however, that Santorum would be easy to defeat, could be a fatal error on the part of the Democratic Party and President Obama!

Instead, a possible Rick Santorum Presidency MUST be seen as a “clear and present danger” to the achievements of the New Deal, the Great Society, and the reforms in the 20th century brought about by both Democratic and Republican Presidents!

Rick Santorum would be a danger to women, African Americans, Hispanics and Latinos, immigrants of all backgrounds, gays and lesbians, the environment, government regulation of business, a fair tax system, labor rights, a fair balance in the federal courts including the Supreme Court, and American foreign policy with the threat of more foreign wars in the name of fighting what Santorum would call “Islamofascism”!

So no one should take the possible candidacy of Rick Santorum for President as something to dismiss or ignore. That would be at the threat and danger to too many groups and issues!

A Major Positive For Barack Obama In 2012: The Hispanic-Latino Vote

Many Hispanics and Latinos are unhappy with President Barack Obama, due to the deportation policies of the administration, seen as considerably tougher than under George W. Bush; and to the continuing economic difficulties faced by them, a higher unemployment rate than whites.

But yet, it seems clear from a survey of the Pew Hispanic Center that Hispanics and Latinos will back Obama by 2-1 over any Republican opponent.

The reason is the constant anti Hispanic and anti Latino statements of Republicans running for the Presidency, and the Republican membership of Congress.

Also, jobs, education and health care matter most to Hispanics and Latinos, and on all three, the GOP is seen as unfriendly and antagonistic to the values and concerns of those groups.

John McCain received 31 percent of the Hispanic and Latino vote in 2008. George W. Bush had done better, with about 40 percent. It seems clear that whoever the Republican nominee is, he is unlikely to get much more than 20 percent, if that.

And only Cuban Americans are likely to vote in the majority for the Republican nominee for President, while Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, and other Central and South American Hispanics will certainly back Obama overwhelmingly!

The Collapse Of Newt Gingrich And Surge Of Rick Santorum As Iowa Caucuses Near!

The Republican Presidential nomination race has gone through amazing changes of fortune, if one considers public opinion polls reliable.

Newt Gingrich has become the newest candidate to rise and collapse, as indicated by the CNN-Time poll released today. He follows Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Herman Cain in the ups, and then the downs, of public opinion polling.

Ron Paul has surged, but is now under heavy attack and may be starting to wear down as a result, although with the power of libertarianism in Iowa, he might still win the state in the caucuses or end a close second.

But the sudden surge of Rick Santorum is the newest surprise, although it must be pointed out that Iowa has 60 percent of Republicans who call themselves social conservatives, and Santorum has visited every county of the state, and more often been in Iowa than any other Republican candidate, and definitely appeals to social conservatives. He now shows up as third behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.

To believe that Rick Santorum could actually win the GOP nomination is, however, to believe in the tooth fairy! But he could win Iowa in a close finish!

What is clear is that there is great dissatisfaction with the Republican candidates for President, and the constantly changing fortunes of the candidates is, therefore, a danger sign for the Presidential Election of 2012.

With Ron Paul Having His “Surge” In Iowa, The Investigation Of His Record Begins!

Texas Congressman Ron Paul has been very appealing to libertarians, and was in fact the Presidential candidate of the Libertarian Party in 1988.

Having run as a Republican for President in 2008, the only repeat candidate along with Mitt Romney, Paul is presently first in some Iowa public opinion polls as the Iowa Caucuses of January 3 get closer.

So Paul is having a “surge”, as earlier Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich have had. Only Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman have not had a “surge’ as the search for the non Romney candidate continues.

So now that Ron Paul is being paid more attention, let us look at the facts about a man who has been around a long time, and has taken positions on all kinds of issues, meaning at least some will be seen in a positive light, depending on the person looking at Paul’s record. But there is plenty to be disturbed about!

But face the facts: There is no way that Ron Paul can be the GOP Presidential nominee, and if he looked as if he was going to be, there would be such a ganging up on him by the Republican Party, which despite its claims, is NOT a libertarian, isolationist party as Ron Paul basically is.

What is objectionable about Ron Paul, in no special order?

1. Ron Paul has in the past, in a newsletter he now disavows, but was under his name, stated racist, anti Semitic, and anti gay statements. While he is not the only Republican to make racist or anti gay statements, the fact that he said them in a newsletter many years ago makes him even more objectionable, since it is harder to refute.

2. Paul is for taking America out of the United Nations and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and all free trade agreements. He is perceived as an isolationist.

3. He is highly critical of Israel, the only Republican candidate to be so, and yet does not see Iran as a threat for the future with the development of nuclear weapons.

4. Paul is for wiping out most government agencies and their bureaucracies, including Education, Commerce, Homeland Security, Energy, Health and Human Services, and Energy. He also would love to eliminate the Federal Reserve Board. None of this is going to happen, no matter what criticisms there might be of these agencies.

5. Paul promotes letting states decide most matters dealt with by the national government, and thinks climate change is a hoax, and advocates stopping interference with religion’s influence in government, including the teaching of intelligent design over evolution.

6. He is a strong believer in pro-life without exceptions; against any government intervention in the environment; any regulation of guns; and any aspect of affirmative action.

7. Paul opposes any kind of amnesty for illegal aliens, any support of any kind for them, and birthright citizenship for their children born in the United States.

8. Paul believes only in excise or sales taxes, and the wiping out of the income tax, and refuses to support any spending programs that create new debts.

Also, a study by a political science journal, The American Journal of Political Science, came to the conclusion that, overall, Paul has the most conservative voting record of all 3,320 members of Congress from 1937 to 2002!

So the attacks on Ron Paul as outside the mainstream, even of the GOP, is rapidly growing!