Public Opinion Polls

“Swing” States Down To Eight, Narrowing Romney Chances Of Winning Presidency!

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The Mitt Romney Presidential campaign has decided to buy advertising time on television in only eight states, narrowing the chance that the former Massachusetts Governor can win the Presidency.

Eliminated as places of opportunity are Michigan, the birthplace and childhood of Romney, and the state that his father was Governor in the 1960s; Wisconsin, the birthplace and home of his running mate, Paul Ryan; and Pennsylvania, despite the well known white male battleground of western Pennsylvania, often thought to be an Achilles Heel for Barack Obama!

So what are the states still in play?

New Hampshire–4 electoral votes
Virginia–13 electoral votes
North Carolina–15 electoral votes
Florida–29 electoral votes
Ohio–18 electoral votes
Iowa–6 electoral votes
Colorado–9 electoral votes
Nevada–6 electoral votes

The total electoral votes in play are 100, while Obama leads with 247 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney has 191 electoral votes from 23 states. Remember that the winner of the election must have 270 electoral votes.

So, with the updated realities that even Romney’s advertising campaign reflects, Obama wins If

he wins Florida (29 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Virginia (31 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and North Carolina (33 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Iowa or Nevada (24 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Colorado (27 electoral votes)
he wins New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Colorado (24 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Iowa and Nevada (27 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Iowa and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Colorado and New Hampshire (26 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia, Colorado, and either Iowa or Nevada (28 electoral votes)

So these are ELEVEN scenarios where Barack Obama has the advantage–needing only between one and four states of the eight “swing” states to win the Presidency in the Electoral College!

The unemployment rate is lower than the national average in New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio and Iowa, while higher in North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

So if one were to assume that the four states that have the lower unemployment rate than the national average go to Obama, he wins 41 electoral votes, for a grand total of 288 electoral votes.

Of course, there are five states, that are considered “red” or Republican states, that actually are in play, although expected to go to Romney. These are Indiana (11 electoral votes), which went to Obama in 2008; Missouri (10 electoral votes), which was won by John McCain in 2008 by only about 4,000 votes; Montana (3 electoral votes), which is becoming more Democratic; Arizona (11 electoral votes), which is moving toward Democratic over time with the growing Hispanic vote, and the controversial immigration law under Governor Jan Brewer; and Georgia (16 electoral votes), which is gaining a large Hispanic population, which means it will likely trend Democratic over the next few election cycles. Were all of these to go Democratic in a close vote situation, Obama could, theoretically, win 51 more electoral votes!

So, IF Obama were to win all of the eight “swing states” now in play, based on Romney’s decision as to what states to spend money on advertising, he would go from what seems clearly 247 electoral votes to 347 electoral votes–meaning he would have won all of the states he won in 2008, except for Indiana!

This is 18 electoral votes fewer than in 2008, when Obama won 365 electoral votes–due to the theoretical loss of Indiana (11 electoral votes), plus the fact that the states he won lost a total of 7 electoral votes due to reapportionment of seats in Congress, based on the 2010 Census.

But IF Obama were to win the “red” states that could be in play, listed above, a total of five states with 51 electoral votes, his highest theoretical total of electoral votes would reach 398 electoral votes, meaning Romney would win only 140 electoral votes, with Obama winning 32 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney winning 18 states!

The ultimate point of this discussion is to make it clear that the odds of Obama being re-elected are very high, despite the supposedly tight popular vote on a national level, which really proves nothing, as the polls on popular vote in the eight “swing” states demonstrate that Obama is ahead in all of them, except in North Carolina and Colorado, so to bet against Obama would be a losing bet, best thought about before being placed, as the odds of losing large amounts of money is extremely a likely occurrence!

Bill Clinton Hits A Grand Slam At The Democratic National Convention!

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Coming off two nights where the Washington Nationals managed to hit six home runs for two games in a row, something that has only been done twice before in major league baseball history, another “former” resident of Washington, DC, former President Bill Clinton, looked as if he was part of the Washington Nationals lineup last night at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina!

In baseball lingo, we could say that Bill Clinton hit a grand slam home run, as he defended the Barack Obama performance in office; linked his own time in office with that of his Democratic successor; showed the hypocrisy of Paul Ryan on policy and was laudatory toward Vice President Joe Biden’s contribution to the Obama Presidency; and destroyed the idea of Mitt Romney that the answer is to go back to the failed policies of the Bush Administration which got this nation in the economic mess it is in, which Clinton said no President in the past could have rectified completely in just four years!

Clinton, a masterful and charismatic orator, excited the convention, adding to the drama of this gathering, in a way that was very special and unique. The dynamism and electricity of the thousands of delegates and guests could be felt in every home that tuned in to the dramatic 45 minute address, much of it ad lib, by a man who has had his ups and downs historically, but is now riding a wave of popularity in the mid 60s in public opinion polls.

If Bill Clinton could convince white working class males to think of their future, instead of the appeal to their prejudices by the Republican Party, then he will have vindicated his goal of moving his party and the nation toward a continuation of the Obama Administration, which has much to be proud of, and has, indeed, made America a better nation than it was four years ago.

So Bill Clinton reminded us, that despite much work left to do, we are “better off” than we were four years ago, an old refrain used by Ronald Reagan, who attacked Jimmy Carter in 1980, on the basis that we were NOT better off, and managed to convince the country to elect him, not realizing that Reagan would pursue economic policies that would start the decline of the American economy and help to cause the massive government debt, mostly occurring under Republican Presidents Reagan and the two Bushes.

Only Clinton was able to balance the budget several times, slowing up the debt’s growth, and actually leaving a surplus for George W. Bush, which was then squandered by two wars in Iraq and Afghaniatan, a Medicare prescription drug plan unpaid for by taxes, and a policy of deregulation of Wall Street which led to the Great Recession of 2008, all thrown into the lap of Barack Obama in 2009, creating the worst economic times since Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Great Depression in the 1930s!

The Night Of Bill Clinton: The High Point Of His Post Presidency Tonight At The Democratic National Convention

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Former President Bill Clinton will be the center of attention this evening when he delivers the nominating speech for President Barack Obama.

Having gone through the hell of being President and having strong GOP opposition, and being impeached by the Republican House on flimsy grounds, Bill Clinton has survived heart surgery, promoted the Clinton Initiative, and become popular to the point that over 60 percent of the American people, in a public opinion poll, have a favorable view of him, and even the Republicans have rewritten history, and now tend to speak of him favorably, as part of their tactic to attack Barack Obama.

This is a first, for a former President, to give the nominating speech for one of his successors, but Bill Clinton is a master wordsmith, and his speech tonight will boost Obama greatly.

In a way, it is quite amazing that this is happening, as four years ago, there was bad blood between Obama and both Bill and Hillary Clinton, due to the struggle for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but Hillary ended up as an exceptional Secretary of State for President Obama, and the Clintons now have a good relationship with Obama.

What this might mean for Obama and any plans of Hillary Clinton to run for President as his successor is unknown, but certainly the Clintons will remain in the public eye, even after Hillary Clinton leaves the cabinet in 2013, for a well deserved rest, and to consider her future!

Growing Possibility Of Libertarian Gary Johnson Having Impact On Presidential Election Of 2012

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Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s Presidential candidate, is showing some strength in polls that indicates he could be the “spoiler” in the 2012 Presidential Election, similar to what Ralph Nader was in the Presidential Election of 2000.

The effect, if Johnson gained a few percent of the vote in “battleground” or “swing” states, would be most likely to hurt Mitt Romney, the Republican Presidential nominee, rather than Democrat Barack Obama, since it seems more likely that libertarian support would come from elements in the GOP.

So the thought is that Johnson could affect the vote in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada, and help, indirectly, President Obama to win those states, although right now, Obama has the edge in Virginia, Florida, and Nevada, and is slightly ahead in Colorado, while behind in North Carolina.

If Johnson can win 3-5 percent of the vote, he could go down in history as notable enough to be recorded as having affected the election, just as Ralph Nader in 2000.

Missouri Senate Race Could Lead To Obama Victory In “Bellwether” State

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Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri has been considered the most vulnerable incumbent in this year’s Senate races, but the flap and controversy over the remarks of Republican nominee Todd Akin six days ago has led to McCaskill, who was trailing Akin, to take a nine point lead in the latest polling.

IF McCaskill can continue to keep a lead over Akin, and nine points is a massive edge at this point, 73 days out, then President Obama has the prospect of carrying Missouri, which he lost to John McCain by about 4,000 votes in 2008.

Remember again that Missouri has been a “bellwether” state since the beginning of the 20th century, with only 1956 and 2008 having the Presidential winner lose Missouri, so it would be very welcome to Obama to win the 10 electoral votes of the “Show Me” state in November, and improve his chances of winning the Electoral College, which now are excellent, even without Missouri!

The Romney-Ryan Ticket As Seen By African Americans, Hispanics-Latinos And Women: Worst Since Polling Began!

Ronald 1 Comment

The Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan Presidential ticket is in deep trouble, as polls demonstrate the unbelievable gap that they face gaining support among African Americans, Hispanics-Latinos, and women.

In one poll, Barack Obama leads Romney 94-0 among African Americans! Did you see that, ZERO for Romney, a stunning figure!

In one poll, Barack Obama leads Romney 63-28 among Hispanics-Latinos, a 35 point gap!

And among women, Barack Obama, in a recent poll, leads 54-39 percent, a 15 point gap!!

With absolutely ZERO support among African Americans, 35 points behind among Hispanics-Latinos, and 15 points behind among women, the Romney-Ryan ticket is on the road to total disaster, as they are also behind among labor voters, Jews, young people, moderates, Independents, and also behind Obama in all “swing” or battleground states except North Carolina, and almost even in Colorado.

Although they will win more states in the “heartland”, and therefore more electoral votes than Barry Goldwater did in 1964, they are on the way to a worst defeat than any GOP loser—Gerald Ford, George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole or John McCain–since a half century ago!

Medicare Will Decide The Election: IF Obama Wins Florida AND New Hampshire Of “Battleground” States, He Wins The Presidency!

Ronald Leave a comment

Chuck Todd of NBC’s Meet The Press just demonstrated how close Barack Obama is to a victory for the White House.

Showing an electoral vote map with 237 electoral votes in Obama’s camp and 191 in Mitt Romney’s camp, Todd demonstrates that there are NINE true “battleground” or “swing” states, and if Obama wins Florida and New Hampshire, he has the second term he wants in the White House! And the issue of Medicare, brought to central focus by Paul Ryan and his budget plans on that program, will be the center of the victory of Obama for the Presidency!

Even if Romney wins the other seven contestable states—Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada—he would lose the Electoral College 270-268, due to Florida’s 29 electoral votes and New Hampshire’s 4 electoral votes!

But, to assume that Obama would really lose all seven of those states is also delusional, as it is certain that he will win some, and probably, most of them!

This author has been saying this for a long time, and has found some readers of this blog, conservative and Republican friends and associates, and people on Fox News Channel and talk radio, act as if only the public opinion polls, which often show a close race in many states and nationally, should be paid attention to, but that is NOT the case!

The election is decided by the Electoral College, NOT the popular vote nationally,and do not forget that George W. Bush LOST the popular vote in 2000, but was declared the winner of the Electoral College! The same happened to Benjamin Harrison, Rutherford Hayes, and John Quincy Adams in the past!

But to conclude that, somehow, Barack Obama will lose the national popular vote, with the Republican alienation of Hispanics-Latinos, African Americans, women, young voters, the middle class, senior citizens, gays and lesbians, the poor, labor, educators, consumer advocates, environmentalists, and secular voters—in each case, the majority, not all of any group, of course—indicates that those believing what they do are indeed delusional, and cannot be helped by ordinary medical intervention!

Paul Ryan As Congressman For His District: Typical Politician, Which Should Upset Tea Party Advocates And Conservatives!

Ronald 2 Comments

An investigation of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan’s record as the First District Representative demonstrates that he is not a Tea Party advocate or consistent conservative in his principles, when it comes to his constituents.

The record shows the following:

Ryan voted for earmarks for his district, while always condemning the concept.

Ryan supported the Auto Industry Bailout, because it affected many of his constituents.

Ryan voted for TARP, the Troubled Asset Relief Program, in 2008, because it had an effect on his district.

Ryan was opposed to the Obama Economic Stimulus legislation, but made sure that his constituents received some of the funding under the law.

So Paul Ryan has said one thing and done another, making him a typical politician, who speaks out of both sides of his mouth!

But if one is a true Tea Party advocate or hard line conservative, Paul Ryan should disillusion them, added on to the flip flopping of Mitt Romney!

But realize, the major reason to back Romney and Ryan is simply they are not Barack Obama!

This is more a personal election issue, than anything else!

But the problem is that, nationally, Barack Obama is well liked, and highly regarded, while the “likability” rating of Romney is very low, the lowest in modern times for a candidate, and even if Paul Ryan is more personable and likeable by comparison, he is not at the level of Barack Obama!

And even if Ryan were to become popular as much as Obama, remember he is the bottom of the ticket, not the top!

The Middle Class Reacting To Romney-Ryan, And Their Promotion Of The Oligarchy

Ronald 17 Comments

Both Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are being besieged by demonstrators at campaign events, who reject their attack on the middle class, and their promotion of the oligarchy, the top two percent, who already have more concentration of wealth than at any time in American history, including the Gilded Age and the 1920s.

It is clear that nearly 80 percent of the American people, based upon polls, do not want Medicare turned into a voucher system. It is also clear that women are not going to accept the limits on their rights that Republicans are promoting in Congress and in many Republican controlled state legislatures.

The growing feeling is that this Romney-Ryan team could be the most radical right wing combination we have seen in Republican Party history, with the exception of Barry Goldwater in 1964, and even he came out for an attack on social conservatism and the power of religion in the GOP, backing gay rights and abortion rights, in his older years.

It is not promising when Paul Ryan is revealed to have agreed with radio talk show host Glenn Beck that progressivism and liberalism was a “cancer”, in a radio interview in 2010.

In other words, what this author said over the weekend about the inflexibility and ideological extremism of Paul Ryan is not just theory, but based on evidence, not only in that radio interview, but in the dealings of the House Budget Committee majority under Paul Ryan’s leadership, adopting a budget with massive tax cuts for the wealthy, while cutting Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, Pell Grants, Food Stamps, and many other programs!

Notice that the popularity rating of the Congress, particularly of the House and its leadership, is at an all time low, hovering around 12 percent.

If Mitt Romney thought selection of Paul Ryan was going to invigorate his campaign, he was right in a certain sense. It has caused the beginning of the outrage of middle class Americans who are not going to allow the GOP team to destroy America as a land of opportunity, and the last great hope of mankind, and instead just promote the elite wealthy!

The Tea Party Movement had its opportunity to confront and challenge Barack Obama and his health care plan in 2009-2010, in a very vigorous and disruptive manner at political rallies and town halls.

Now, those who are opposed to the narrow mindedness of the Tea Party Movement are getting their opportunity to express their anger, as if we allow one side to be outspoken, the other side has the same opportunity. Freedom of speech and freedom of the press still exist, even for those who disagree with Glenn Beck and Paul Ryan! This is a democracy, not a dictatorship of the RIght!

The Battle For The Jewish Vote In The Presidential Election Of 2012: The Role Of The Republican Jewish Coalition

Ronald 3 Comments

The Jewish vote may be a small percentage of all votes cast in national elections, but it is well known that the Jewish community votes in higher percentages than any other group in American society, and the concentration of the Jewish population in certain states can have a great impact on the electoral college, as for example, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, all swing or battleground states.

So the battle for the Jewish vote is intense, with the Republican Jewish Coalition trying to increase the percentage of the Jewish population willing to vote Republican, which was unsuccessful in 2008, when 78 percent of the Jewish vote went to Barack Obama.

Latest indications are that 64 percent of the Jewish vote presently is in the Obama camp, down 14 points, but still two thirds of all Jews. So the Republican Jewish Coalition is hard at work trying to convince even more Jews of the following ideas:

1, Obama is not sufficiently pro Israel, and cannot be trusted to support Israel, due to the well known tension that exists at times between the Obama Administration and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

2. Obama refuses to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, because of concerns about the Middle East balance.

3. Obama has not visited Israel as President in his first term, although he did as a candidate in 2008.

The reality is that the Republican Jewish Coalition has distorted reality dramatically, so how can one answer these three accusations?

1. Obama has backed Israel in the United Nations, has supported lots of extra aid and military support to Israel, has spoken up in defense of Israel in every way possible. And Israeli Defense Minister and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak and President Shimon Peres have issued lavish praise on Obama as a great friend of Israel, as good as any other American President from Harry Truman through George W. Bush, and both Israeli leaders went out of their way to issue these statements of support.

2. It is true that no move has been made to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, but NO President from Lyndon B. Johnson through George W. Bush has been willing to do so, because of sensitivity about peace negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis, and this includes Republican Presidents Richard Nixon,. Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush, a total of FIVE Republican Presidents, as compared to FOUR Democratic Presidents, including Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Obama!

3. It is true that Obama has not visited Israel in his first term, but NO President, Democratic nor Republican, has done so in their first term, and of course, Ford, Carter, and Bush I only served one term or less as President.

So the accusations of the Republican Jewish coalition are distorted, untrue, purely propaganda, and it will not succeed in bringing larger than about a third of the Jewish vote to Mitt Romney!