Pennsylvania

The Seven “Swing States” And Four “Red” States Which Will Decide The Presidential Election Of 2012

Ronald 2 Comments

Many ill informed people might think that the Presidential Election of 2012 is nearly even, based on some public opinion polls that show the popular vote close or tied, particularly the case with Fox News Polls, which tend to distort reality, but are believed by those who see that so called “news channel”, and the “poison and hate” it disposes, as being absolute Gospel!

But in reality, the election is NOT close at this point, with the decision based on seven “swing” states, all of which Barack Obama won last time, and all seven in which he has a clear lead at this point.

Of course, no one can live on polls at any moment of time, and it will be essential for Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and others who speak for the Administration to get out there and be actively campaigning and spreading the word over the next six months, but the fact that Mitt Romney has major problems with Independents, women, Hispanics and Latinos, Young people, and Evangelical Christians, make it clear that he has a massive set of challenges to overcome Barack Obama, and this is not the time to put betting money on the former Massachusetts Governor.

The seven states that will be most paid attention to, and visited by both campaigns over the next six months are Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

Additionally, four “red” states have a shot at switching to Obama, with those states in order of likelihood to switch including Missouri, Arizona, Montana and Georgia.

So instead of listening to propaganda, realize that it is these seven “swing” states and four “red” states that are the crux of the election!

Seven Factors Which Could Defeat Barack Obama In 2012

Ronald 1 Comment

Despite all of the evidence that Barack Obama has a great advantage for re-election in 2012, there certainly are factors which could lead to his defeat.

These include:

If the economy has another backslide of notable proportions, and gasoline prices continue to rise.

If a war breaks out in the Middle East or elsewhere, and the President is seen as handling the foreign crisis poorly.

If the Republican attempt in many states to limit the vote by discriminatory voter registration legislation succeeds in cutting voter registration and participation down dramatically.

If the enthusiasm of voters for Barack Obama is toned down, because of disillusionment that he has not been able to solve all of the problems he faced upon taking office.

If the effects of the growth of SuperPACS, encouraged by the Citizens United Case of the Supreme Court in 2010, are able to propagandize enough with less informed voters who react to negative commercials.

If a major political scandal erupts that undermines faith in the President’s leadership, with the opposition already starting to blame Obama for the Secret Service scandal.

And finally, the issue of race, as electing the first African American President is a path breaker and milestone, but re-electing would be an even more path breaking milestone, with the constant reference to race by right wing extremists, conservatives, and a majority of Republican officeholders, all designed to instill fear, panic, and conspiracy theories into the heads of white working class voters in Pennsylvania and the Midwest.

So there is no guarantee, and six months is an eternity in American politics!

The Sectionalism And Regionalism In America’s 50 States

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An interesting part of American history and contemporary America is the reality of sectionalism and regionalism in many American states.

One classic example was the case of West Virginia, a breakaway from Virginia of areas of the state that were anti slavery, occurring during the Civil War in 1863. Therefore, the site of John Brown’s Raid on Harpers Ferry in 1859, which had been part of Virginia, became probably the most famous site in the new state of West Virginia, and remains a fascinating historic site today, which the author has visited.

But also, there have been desires in many states to have secessionist movements and the creation of new states.

So when observers look at the 50 states, they realize that in many of them, there are real rivalries and divisions, and a different state of mind about politics and the economy.

It is well known that upstate New York has little in common with New York City and Long Island and the counties just north of New York City.

Also, downstate Illinois is totally different in mentality than Chicago.

Central and North Florida are totally alienated from South Florida, and particularly, Miami.

Upper and Western Michigan are a different world than Detroit.

Central and Western Pennsylvania are a world apart from Philadelphia.

Central and Southern New Jersey are vastly different than Northern New Jersey, just across the George Washington Bridge from New York City.

Central and Southern Virginia are another planet from Northern Virginia, which is the Washington DC suburbs.

Central and Southern Ohio are totally different than northeastern Ohio, around Cleveland.

Central and Southern Missouri are a different world than Eastern Missouri, the area of St. Louis.

Texas and California are the best examples of sectionalism and regionalism, particularly with being the second and third largest states in area.

So Texas has the “Panhandle” centered around Lubbock; the area around Dallas and Fort Worth; the capital of Austin in the center of the state; the largest metropolitan area around Houston; and the area around San Antonio and further south to the Mexican border. It could easily be five or more states.

California has the traditional split between north and south, between San Francisco and Los Angeles. But now it is recognized that California also has a gap between East and West, between the coastal areas and the interior areas, with the interior being very different economically, and very much conservative and Republican, as compared to the rest of the state. There has even been a movement to separate interior areas in the south from the rest of the state, creating a 51st state, but the chances of its success are seen as highly unlikely.

The point is that there tends to be stereotyping of our 50 states, labeling them as having a particular economic and political structure, but the reality is much more complicated, and could, some day, lead to the breaking up of a few states, creating a few new additions to the Union!

Mitt Romney’s Endorsement By Jeb Bush And What It May Mean

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Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has had a good 24 hour cycle, with the major win in Illinois, support from a wide band of voting groups, and the endorsement by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.

Bush is one of the heavyweights in the GOP, and his endorsement, held off to now, is a prized one.

It would seem that former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, ending up 12 points behind, will have less opportunity to move ahead, although he might win Louisiana this weekend. But he would have to win WIsconsin on April 3, and his home state of Pennsylvania on April 24, to remain alive, and nothing in this regard is certain.

Meanwhile, with Newt Gingrich ending up last, behind Ron Paul, in Illinois, it would seem that it is time for the former House Speaker to leave the race, but his ego, and the fact money is still rolling in, means he will wish the publicity to continue running, even though he has only won South Carolina and Georgia.

Ron Paul has won nowhere except the US VIrgin Islands, but he is not about to withdraw either.

The goal of the three stragglers is to prevent 1,144 delegate votes for Mitt Romney on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention in Tampa in August, and the promotion of the first contested convention since Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford fought it out on the convention floor in 1976.

Bush’s backing of Romney is certainly a sign that the “Establishment” Republicans want unity, seeing it as essential now to organize against President Barack Obama.

And there is now speculation that Jeb Bush might accept the Vice Presidential nomination with Romney, but that seems highly unlikely. Bush certainly would help with Hispanic and Latino voters, and mainline conservatives, but Bush does not seem like the type to be number two on anyone’s ticket.

Disturbing Social Trends: Anti Gay, Anti Labor, Anti Women, Anti Immigrant, Anti Black

Ronald 1 Comment

The news seems to be more disturbing by the day, as social trends are moving more and more in the direction of hate, prejudice, bias, and narrow mindedness.

Witness the following examples:

In New Jersey, an immature college student. Dharun Ravi, is convicted on all charges of a hate crime against a gay roommate who he streamed a liaison with another man on a webcam, causing that young man, Tyler Clementi, to commit suicide. What a stupid, and self destructive act by a young man who has now destroyed his life, after having done the same to the unfortunate Clementi, which will lead to Ravi’s prison sentence and likely deportation to India. So we have two promising young men at Rutgers University who have been tragically transformed by the prejudice and discrimination that is too widespread in this country, including by so called “religious good Christians”, which have led not just to this incident, but to the crisis of bullying that has caused many other suicides of gay youth, and this backed by right wing conservatives allied with the religious fanatics who do not promote the love of God, which they claim they believe, while practicing hypocrisy.

Then we have the example of a law firm in Deerfield Beach, Florida, which fired a whole group of workers who dressed in orange shirts for work, planning for “happy hour’ on Friday evening! Just for wearing an orange shirt, these people are summarily dismissed, and Florida state law, being that the Sunshine State is a “right to work” state, the employer can dismiss without any just cause or explanation, an outrage to all working people, who see conservatives and businessmen condemn labor unions which try to make work conditions better for all of us, even those not in labor unions. The average American has benefited from the labor movement over the past century, but yet labor unions are pilloried, and workers are abused, as with this example! And witness the anti labor actions in Wisconsin, Ohio, and elsewhere that have occurred in the past year!

The fight against women’s right to privacy and their dignity continues with restrictive legislation on contraception being pursued in yet more states, most recently in Arizona and Pennsylvania, on top of the outrageous vaginal probe law in Virginia and similar actions elsewhere.

Immigrants are facing widespread discrimination, whether legal or illegal, in Arizona, Alabama and elsewhere, and now we have the case of a basketball player, who is Puerto Rican and a citizen, facing chants of where his green card is, at a game at the University of Southern Mississippi. Immigrants are being abused, harassed, and victimized daily in the discriminatory, nativist mood that this nation has become obsessed with in recent years.

And African Americans, as always, face greater discrimination, so we have the case of a black teenager in Sanford, Florida, shot to death by a Neighborhood Patrol volunteer, who thought this young man was dangerous and suspicious, even though all he had on him was some Skittles and a soda, but leading to being shot in the chest and killed, and so far, no prosecution of what is obviously an unjustifiable action. It does not add to the image of Florida as to its handling of racial matters, reminding us of the days of segregation and lynching in the state’s past a half century and more ago!

The country is disintegrating from within socially, a very worrisome issue that must be addressed, with the one bright spot being media reporting and exposure, and the reality that liberals and progressives will not stay silent in the midst of these disturbing social trends!

Joe Biden, Obama’s Greatest Asset And Emissary To Blue Collar Working Class, Comes Out Fighting In Toledo, Ohio

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Vice President Joe Biden, who has been a great asset to President Obama in so many ways, started the national campaign in Toledo, Ohio, today with a speech before a labor group extolling the record of President Obama in saving the auto industry, and attacking the Republican Presidential candidates by name for the first time, since it is still not certain who the GOP nominee against Obama will be in November.

Joe Biden represents the blue collar working class of Scranton, Pennsylvania and Wilmington, Delaware, where he grew up. And being a commuter on Amtrak to work for 36 years of service in the US Senate, Biden has come across as an average guy, who cares about his neighbors and his country, and as sincere and dedicated to help those in the struggling middle class that was the story of much of his childhood.

Biden knows how to deliver a fiery speech and how to excite a crowd, and he will take the fight for the Obama Presidency all over America in the next eight months.

His rhetoric will be very supportive, and he will use all of the energy he possesses to advance a second term for President Obama. The President is very lucky to have him there by his side! Biden will help carry Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and other states in a tough battle against those who would use religion and resentment (as for instance Rick Santorum) against Obama. And if Mitt Romney is the nominee, Biden will attack him mercilessly for his refusal to back the bailout of Chrysler and General Motors.

The Multiple Problems Of Rick Santorum: Why He Would Be A Nightmare For America!

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Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum comes across as handsome, personable, a good speaker, and willing to look people directly in the eye when he meets them.

But these strengths are outweighed by his many shortcomings, as witness:

Rick Santorum was extremely unpopular among his Republican colleagues in the US House of Representatives and US Senate, from John McCain to Jim DeMint, a wide range within a narrow based party.

Rick Santorum became the biggest promoter of “pork”, known as “earmarks”, and made all the right connections with business people so that he has enriched himself since his defeat in the Senate reelection contest of 2006, where he lost by the massive margin of 17 points, despite his 12 years of Senate seniority.

Rick Santorum has a confrontational, take no prisoners approach to his “enemies”, and has absolutist views on many issues, which means he would not unite the American people, and would cause a bigger rift, a bigger chasm, a bigger division, than has existed under Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama. He does not have the personality or nature to compromise, or to promote unity. The political atmosphere would be far worse, much more poisonous in a Santorum Presidency, and antagonistic to his “enemies”, more anti media than anyone since Richard Nixon!

Rick Santorum believes in a muscular foreign policy, and would engage America in more overseas military adventures without any pause, which makes him very dangerous.

Rick Santorum has no concern for the poor or the struggling middle class, as he has demonstrated so often, since he believes that no one is responsible to pay more taxes to help the sick, the poor, the disadvantaged, and that we have no social responsibility to each other. He would be the most right wing candidate since Barry Goldwater, but worse than Goldwater, who was a libertarian in many ways, and would not approve of Santorum’s invocation of “Jesus”, and Santorum’s narrow view of Christianity. Santorum would have no problem going back to a theory of Social Darwinism, prevalent in the Gilded Age of the late 19th century.

Rick Santorum believes there is no right to privacy including his opposition to abortion in all circumstances; his extreme condemnation of gay rights in all of its forms; his opposition even to contraception; and his desire to have divorce made more difficult, forcing unhappy couples to stay together as long as they have children under the age of 18. He also believes that consenting adults do not have the right to consensual sex in their own homes!

Rick Santorum claims to speak for the working class, because of his own blue collar family background, including his grandfather, who migrated from Italy and worked in the coal mines, but really he is personally quite wealthy, and only really has shown political concern for WHITE working class, which he is appealing to, and not concern for African Americans or Hispanics, with his statements and actions attacking any assistance or support of the advancements of these minority groups, which have been left behind.

Rick Santorum showed he was not a “compassionate” conservative as President George W. Bush claimed to be, when he said that “pre-existing” conditions involving health care should be given higher premium rates because their “habits” led to the pre-existing conditions, even when a mother saying her child had developed health issues and could not get insurance, questioned him this week at a campaign rally in New Hampshire. Santorum has no compassion or concern for anyone not wealthy, and this is supposed to be a “good Christian”? This is the true hypocrisy of Rick Santorum, promoting selfishness and greed, not what Jesus Christ promoted! And yet, Santorum claims he is the “JESUS” candidate! What an outrage!

Rick Santorum is dangerous to America, as he would promote a repeal of the New Deal and Great Society; would advocate military interventions overseas; would destroy the safety net that exists for those less fortunate and less healthy; and would promote government intrusion in the private lives of Americans, including their sexual behavior.

This is a prescription for a totalitarian government socially, but laissez faire economically, all in the name of JESUS! Just what the Founding Fathers worked so strongly against! We are NOT a theocracy, and the thought of it is enough to make one terrified!

Obama Strategies To Win Reelection In 2012: Alternative Routes To Victory

Ronald 1 Comment

Barack Obama seems extremely likely to win the entire Northeast from Maine to Maryland and Washington, DC in 2012, with possibly New Hampshire and Pennsylvania as exceptions. So that would be 112 electoral votes, or without Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, 88 electoral votes.

He is expected also to win the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon and Washington as well, which would mean 74 electoral votes.

In the Midwest, Illinois is a certainty, and the upper Midwest seems strongly Democratic too, including Michigan, WIsconsin, and Minnesota, which means these four states are together a total of 56 electoral votes.

So far, that adds up to 218 electoral votes, without New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and with them, it is 242, 28 short of the number needed, 270 electoral votes, to win the Presidency.

So what is needed to guarantee an Obama victory?

1, The state of Florida with 29 electoral votes would put Obama over the top with all of the above states, and add Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, all with growing Hispanic and Latino populations, and supportive of Obama the last time, and you get 26 electoral votes, to replace a possible loss of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

2. Another scenario is to win Ohio and Missouri, the two states most representative of the winning Presidential candidates, with Ohio being with the GOP nominee every time he has won in US History, and Missouri wrong only twice on the Presidential winner since 1900–1956 and 2008–with their combined 28 replacing Florida or Iowa and the three Southwestern states.

3. Another strategy is to try to win in Georgia and Arizona, along with Missouri, three states won by John McCain in 2008, but all susceptible to moving to Obama with growing Hispanic and Latino populations. This way one gains 37 electoral votes, replacing either Florida OR Iowa and the three Southwestern states.

4. Also, if Obama wins Virginia and North Carolina, he wins 28 electoral votes and does not need Florida, OR Ohio and Missouri, OR Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado!

The point is that Obama has many scenarios to win, and it is very hard to imagine that all of the above combinations of states will go to a Republican party as right wing and divided as it now is, demonstrated even more by the debacle over the middle class tax cut continuation, leading to a split between Republicans in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

So Obama supporters need to work hard, but the future looks bright!

Mitt Romney, His Auto Bailout Opposition, And The Midwest In The 2012 Election

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Mitt Romney, when all is said and done, is likely to be the Republican Presidential nominee, but he will have a great deal of trouble winning the “swing states” in the Midwest and even in Pennsylvania, because of his strong stand against the auto industry bailout pursued by President Barack Obama in 2009.

Romney, whose father was an auto executive and Governor of Michigan in the 1960s, strongly opposed any bailout and called for bankruptcy in very clear cut terms.

This will come back to haunt him in the campaign, and tonight, at the CNBC debate in Michigan, the state in which he was born, Romney will be confronted with the issue of the auto industry revival, with more than 1.4 million jobs saved, not only in Michigan, but also in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota, all “swing states” which are appreciative that Obama did not give up on the industry.

It was not only the auto industry itself, but satellite industries that supply parts and service for the auto industry, that won out by Obama coming to their aid.

The auto companies are paying back the loans, and the American economy, as bad as it is, would be far worse off if Barack Obama had not had the courage to do what he did.

Mitt Romney’s stand, which he cannot revoke, unlike other issues that he flip flops on regularly, will ultimately defeat him in the Presidential Election of 2012!

Is Rick Santorum Becoming Soft And Fuzzy?

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Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, the only person in the Republican Presidential race who has served in the Senate, has had a reputation for hard nosed, aggressive rhetoric throughout his career and during his Presidential run.

Santorum, who ended up fourth in the Ames, Iowa Straw Poll, behind former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, said yesterday that he will not drop out of the race as Pawlenty has done.

At the same time, both yesterday and last week, Rick Santorum sounded as if he is becoming soft and fuzzy!

Imagine this social conservative, who has strongly condemned gay rights and gay marriage, being critical of Iran for its treatment of gays! What has happened that he worries about gay rights in Iran, but not in America?

Yesterday, he was strongly critical of former Texas Governor Rick Perry for his threatening language toward Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke. Santorum said it was unPresidential behavior, comparing it to Michigan Congressman John Conyers calling for the impeachment of former President George W. Bush years ago.

Santorum declared that someone running for President should not use loose language threatening people and accusing them of treason because we do not agree with their views on public policy, and also should not talk about impeachment of a President!

Austin is not Washington, DC, Santorum said, and he declared that Perry needs a learning curve to understand the differences. He seemed to be passing judgment on Texas politics as he criticized Perry.

This is all very shocking, as by showing concern for gay rights in Iran, criticizing an attack on the Federal Reserve, and ridiculing Texas politics, all sound like Santorum is losing his social conservatism and his Tea Party credentials, or his attempt to gain their backing!

Rick Santorum actually sounds reasonable for the first time in years! What is going on, Rick?