Pennsylvania

A Good Week For Barack Obama, Including Debate Performance!

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The first week of October has been good to Barack Obama!

His Gallup poll rating is at its highest since the fall of 2009, now registering at 54 percent! This is a strong indication of his upcoming victory precisely one month from today!

Many want to believe that his debate performance harmed him, without realizing that while he might not have been at his best, it really does not matter, as incumbent Presidents tend to do poorly on the first debate with a challenger, as indicated in an earlier post. After all, they have more on their mind than the campaign, such as governing and dealing with crises on a daily basis. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney has done nothing for the past six years other than run for President, and he has had a multitude of mistakes and poor performances with his rhetoric and comments!

If Obama had come out charging in this first debate, he would be accused of being an “angry black man”, which terrifies many working class whites and uneducated people, who are accustomed to a different image of blacks, which is an unspoken sign of massive racism! So if he smiles and lets Mitt Romney hang himself as a phony, a chameleon, a liar on a massive scale, he is criticized, but Romney has added to the image that he is untrustworthy by his aggressive performance full of deceit and manipulation! Obama actually handled the situation well, and that will be seen as time goes by!

Now that Romney has proved again that he is a charlatan, Joe Biden will go on the assault against ideologue Paul Ryan, and then Obama will go after Romney in the last two Presidential debates. He will follow Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush in recovering from a theoretical first debate that was unimpressive, to go on to electoral victory!

But also, the victories for voting rights in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and the stopping of voter registration by Republicans in Florida and four other states, due to obvious GOP corruption, will upend the Republican attempt to cut out millions of potential Democratic voters in “swing” states.

And the economic revival that is going on, lowering the unemployment rate below 8 percent for the first time in his term of office, will help Obama, as most sane people will dismiss the conspiracy theories of conservatives and Republicans that the honorable and independent Bureau Of Labor Statistics is corrupt!

And the fact that Obama saved the auto industry; has seen the stock market double during his term; that manufacturing is reviving in America; and that energy production is up domestically without destroying the environment—-all this is further proof that this has been a good week on the road to ultimate victory one month from now!

Pennsylvania Supreme Court Rejects Voter Suppression Bill, Sends It Back To Lower Court

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A major victory for those fighting voter suppression laws was won this week in Pennsylvania, where the six member court of three Republicans and three Democrats sent the state legislature’s Republican sponsored voter ID law back to a lower court for reconsideration, meaning the likelihood that the law will not be able to be used for this fall’s election.

Two Democrats wanted the law declared unconstitutional, but one Democrat and the three Republicans decided instead to have it reconsidered by a lower court, a delaying tactic not as good as dismissing the law, but enough to make it ineffective for an election six weeks away!

This development, plus actions in courts in Ohio, Florida and Texas, make the ability of Republicans to prevent people from voting far less possible, and there has been a firing up of motivation by Democratic oriented voters to do everything they have to do to be able to vote, including spending the time to get necessary documentation, so that they cannot be denied the right to vote by any poll worker at voting sites.

But there is a conspiracy by the group called True The Vote to intimidate voters, particularly minority voters, by stalking them, making them feel they are being followed by police officers, making them afraid to vote, and challenging them at the polls as to their right to vote, even though they are not the poll workers!

The Tea Party Movement is promoting this, basically trying to bring back the Jim Crow segregation era, particularly in Southern states, but also in Republican governed states. If they cannot get the courts to back them up, they will do so by personal interference, and the promotion of fear among voters to prevent them from casting their vote.

So the battle for democracy, that everyone can vote without interference, has had some victories, but attention must be paid to the True The Vote and Tea Party activities, and everything must be done to expose and prevent any suppression efforts by this despicable group and their backers!

Victories For Right To Vote Mounting In Republican Controlled States That Tried To Limit Voting

Ronald 1 Comment

After a year or more of attempts to limit the right to vote for senior citizens, college students, minorities, and the poor, the forces battling for the right to vote are winning victories, due to court action by the federal government, and decisions of federal judges in favor of the whole basis of democracy—voting!

Florida, Texas, and Ohio are among the states where the tide has turned, and Pennsylvania is awaiting a six member state Supreme Court decision that is thought to be ready to throw out the limits on voting set up by the Republican legislature and governor, with the three Republican members of the Court showing skepticism about the limit on voting rights.

This trend makes the likelihood of Barack Obama winning all of the above states, except Texas, more realistic, and it is a stain on the GOP that the party that expanded the right to vote to include African Americans in 1870, and supported civil rights at its founding, now has become the image of the Southern Democrats of the 1870s to the 1960s, who took away the right to vote and promoted Jim Crow segregation!

This is a time for mourning for the Republican Party of the past, which was principled and on the side of voting rights, and now has been captured by extreme right wing elements that are against basic democracy, what people in all nations around the world fight and die for—the right to express their view of who should govern them!

“Swing” States Down To Eight, Narrowing Romney Chances Of Winning Presidency!

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The Mitt Romney Presidential campaign has decided to buy advertising time on television in only eight states, narrowing the chance that the former Massachusetts Governor can win the Presidency.

Eliminated as places of opportunity are Michigan, the birthplace and childhood of Romney, and the state that his father was Governor in the 1960s; Wisconsin, the birthplace and home of his running mate, Paul Ryan; and Pennsylvania, despite the well known white male battleground of western Pennsylvania, often thought to be an Achilles Heel for Barack Obama!

So what are the states still in play?

New Hampshire–4 electoral votes
Virginia–13 electoral votes
North Carolina–15 electoral votes
Florida–29 electoral votes
Ohio–18 electoral votes
Iowa–6 electoral votes
Colorado–9 electoral votes
Nevada–6 electoral votes

The total electoral votes in play are 100, while Obama leads with 247 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney has 191 electoral votes from 23 states. Remember that the winner of the election must have 270 electoral votes.

So, with the updated realities that even Romney’s advertising campaign reflects, Obama wins If

he wins Florida (29 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Virginia (31 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and North Carolina (33 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Iowa or Nevada (24 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Colorado (27 electoral votes)
he wins New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Colorado (24 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Iowa and Nevada (27 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Iowa and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Colorado and New Hampshire (26 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia, Colorado, and either Iowa or Nevada (28 electoral votes)

So these are ELEVEN scenarios where Barack Obama has the advantage–needing only between one and four states of the eight “swing” states to win the Presidency in the Electoral College!

The unemployment rate is lower than the national average in New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio and Iowa, while higher in North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

So if one were to assume that the four states that have the lower unemployment rate than the national average go to Obama, he wins 41 electoral votes, for a grand total of 288 electoral votes.

Of course, there are five states, that are considered “red” or Republican states, that actually are in play, although expected to go to Romney. These are Indiana (11 electoral votes), which went to Obama in 2008; Missouri (10 electoral votes), which was won by John McCain in 2008 by only about 4,000 votes; Montana (3 electoral votes), which is becoming more Democratic; Arizona (11 electoral votes), which is moving toward Democratic over time with the growing Hispanic vote, and the controversial immigration law under Governor Jan Brewer; and Georgia (16 electoral votes), which is gaining a large Hispanic population, which means it will likely trend Democratic over the next few election cycles. Were all of these to go Democratic in a close vote situation, Obama could, theoretically, win 51 more electoral votes!

So, IF Obama were to win all of the eight “swing states” now in play, based on Romney’s decision as to what states to spend money on advertising, he would go from what seems clearly 247 electoral votes to 347 electoral votes–meaning he would have won all of the states he won in 2008, except for Indiana!

This is 18 electoral votes fewer than in 2008, when Obama won 365 electoral votes–due to the theoretical loss of Indiana (11 electoral votes), plus the fact that the states he won lost a total of 7 electoral votes due to reapportionment of seats in Congress, based on the 2010 Census.

But IF Obama were to win the “red” states that could be in play, listed above, a total of five states with 51 electoral votes, his highest theoretical total of electoral votes would reach 398 electoral votes, meaning Romney would win only 140 electoral votes, with Obama winning 32 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney winning 18 states!

The ultimate point of this discussion is to make it clear that the odds of Obama being re-elected are very high, despite the supposedly tight popular vote on a national level, which really proves nothing, as the polls on popular vote in the eight “swing” states demonstrate that Obama is ahead in all of them, except in North Carolina and Colorado, so to bet against Obama would be a losing bet, best thought about before being placed, as the odds of losing large amounts of money is extremely a likely occurrence!

The Democratic Platform And Israel: An Unnecessary Blunder By Barack Obama! UPDATE: NOW RETURNED TO LANGUAGE OF 2008 PLATFORM, A GREAT MOVE!

Ronald 12 Comments

The decision of the Obama Administration and the Democratic Platform Committee at the Democratic National Convention, to eliminate language which was in the 2008 platform–referring to Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and language dealing with the terrorist group Hamas, and the issue of negotiation of the fate of displaced Palestinian refugees by Israel—is an unnecessary blunder that should have been avoided.

Everyone who is fair minded knows that Barack Obama’s Presidency has been one of full support of Israel on all matters that impact them, while occasionally disagreeing on tactics and approaches of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, and the Israeli President, Shimon Peres, have both praised Obama, and declared him as strong a supporter of Israel as any President, since the founding of the Jewish state in 1948.

But the Republican Jewish Coalition and the Mitt Romney Presidential campaign are now jumping on the removal of the platform language, and it puts Obama and the Democratic Party on the defensive, when keeping the language would have avoided this problem, and would have done no harm.

So it is not the issue of being angry with Obama, although some Jews, obviously, will be so, but rather, why, oh why, did the President decide to “shoot himself in the foot”, and create an issue which might impact the election in the swing states, particularly Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, in particular, and might also make the victories of the President in other states with substantial Jewish populations a bit closer, and might affect Congressional or Senate races.

The Jewish vote, if a large percentage abandon the President and the Democratic Party, could have long range implications that no one is thinking about now.

And it could make the Islamic world think that Obama might not support Israel to the extreme, in case of an Iranian crisis, even though one should have no doubt about the matter, in reality. But perceptions often matter more than reality, so this is something that Barack Obama and the Democrats will regret, as it gives unnecessary ammunition to the Republican Party!

It has just been learned that the 2008 Platform language on Jerusalem being Israel’s capital city has been returned to the document, a GREAT MOVE!

The Battle For The Jewish Vote In The Presidential Election Of 2012: The Role Of The Republican Jewish Coalition

Ronald 3 Comments

The Jewish vote may be a small percentage of all votes cast in national elections, but it is well known that the Jewish community votes in higher percentages than any other group in American society, and the concentration of the Jewish population in certain states can have a great impact on the electoral college, as for example, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, all swing or battleground states.

So the battle for the Jewish vote is intense, with the Republican Jewish Coalition trying to increase the percentage of the Jewish population willing to vote Republican, which was unsuccessful in 2008, when 78 percent of the Jewish vote went to Barack Obama.

Latest indications are that 64 percent of the Jewish vote presently is in the Obama camp, down 14 points, but still two thirds of all Jews. So the Republican Jewish Coalition is hard at work trying to convince even more Jews of the following ideas:

1, Obama is not sufficiently pro Israel, and cannot be trusted to support Israel, due to the well known tension that exists at times between the Obama Administration and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

2. Obama refuses to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, because of concerns about the Middle East balance.

3. Obama has not visited Israel as President in his first term, although he did as a candidate in 2008.

The reality is that the Republican Jewish Coalition has distorted reality dramatically, so how can one answer these three accusations?

1. Obama has backed Israel in the United Nations, has supported lots of extra aid and military support to Israel, has spoken up in defense of Israel in every way possible. And Israeli Defense Minister and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak and President Shimon Peres have issued lavish praise on Obama as a great friend of Israel, as good as any other American President from Harry Truman through George W. Bush, and both Israeli leaders went out of their way to issue these statements of support.

2. It is true that no move has been made to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, but NO President from Lyndon B. Johnson through George W. Bush has been willing to do so, because of sensitivity about peace negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis, and this includes Republican Presidents Richard Nixon,. Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush, a total of FIVE Republican Presidents, as compared to FOUR Democratic Presidents, including Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Obama!

3. It is true that Obama has not visited Israel in his first term, but NO President, Democratic nor Republican, has done so in their first term, and of course, Ford, Carter, and Bush I only served one term or less as President.

So the accusations of the Republican Jewish coalition are distorted, untrue, purely propaganda, and it will not succeed in bringing larger than about a third of the Jewish vote to Mitt Romney!

Latest Poll Averages Show Obama Ahead Of Romney In Eleven Of Twelve Battleground States!

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Barack Obama may be only slightly ahead of Mitt Romney nationally in the average of various polls–47.3 percent to 44.7 percent, but when one looks at twelve battleground or swing states, he is ahead of Romney in all but North Carolina, where he trails Romney by 48.5 to 46.5, two percentage points.

Obama is ahead by almost 6 points in Ohio; by 2.5 points in Virginia; by 3 points in Florida; by 6.5 points in Pennsylvania; by almost 4 points in Iowa; by 5.5 points in Nevada; by 5 points in Wisconsin; by 7 points in New Mexico; by 6.5 points in Michigan; and by almost 3 points in New Hampshire. In Colorado, the margin is only two tenths of one point for Obama over Romney, nearly an even split.

So Obama is ahead in 10 of the 12 states listed, all of which he won in 2008, nearly even in Colorado, and only behind in North Carolina!

Not bad considering the blistering attacks and lies and deception that have been going on for three and a half years as President, greater than any President since the last one who was called every name in the book, and yet won a landslide victory in 1936 in the midst of the Great Depression, with unemployment levels still much higher than they are in 2012.

The author is referring here to Franklin D. Roosevelt!

The Voter ID Laws: Based On Lies And A Denial Of The Voting Rights Act Of 1965!

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Many states, all controlled by Republican Governors and legislatures, are systematically violating the Voting Rights Act of 1965 in an attempt to fix the Presidential Election of 2012 in favor of GOP candidate Mitt Romney!

After having manipulated the results in the Presidential Election of 2000, with the help of the partisan Republican Supreme Court, now strict photo ID laws are being imposed to cripple the ability of the elderly, the poor, the young, and minorities to vote, knowing full well that these groups would be likely to vote Democratic for Barack Obama!

Claiming that there has been voter fraud in the past, when there are almost no such examples, now the state of Pennsylvania has openly admitted there is NO evidence of such fraud, but still they want to disenfranchise people, a violation of the civil rights laws, and a disgrace to the idea of democracy!

So the Republican Party is saying that the only way they can win is by denying people the right to vote, and also spending inordinate amounts of money to “buy” the election!

What a disgrace for a political party to be stifling the will of the people!

The Scranton, Pennsylvania Financial Disaster: What It Means!

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Scranton, Pennsylvania, the home city of Vice President Joe Biden, has reached the absolute bottom fiscally, unable to pay its city workers a living wage, and breaking all wage agreements in the process.

We are talking about a Democratic Mayor unable to get the City Council to agree to tax increases on residents, in order to pay a living wage to police officers and fire fighters, as well as other city workers.

So police officers and fire fighters, who protect and serve the residents of Scranton, are being told they will now be paid the minimum wage, $7.25 an hour, to do their crucial jobs!

These courageous city workers are supposed to be able to pay their mortgages or rents; take care of their children’s needs; and plan for a future being paid what they might have been paid when they were in high school or started their first job after graduation!

The citizens of Scranton need to look in the mirror! Do they wish police protection and fire fighting expertise, or do they not?

YES, times are tough, but any sane person will realize that if taxes have to go up, so be it, as everyone tightens the belt, but we have lost our whole purpose as a society if we are telling police officers and fire fighters, as well as other public workers, that we have so little respect and honor for their sacrifice, as to insult them by expecting them to accept the minimum wage for a job that deserves proper pay and benefits!

The City Council and Mayor should be paid the minimum wage as well, and see what it is like to live on it!

And despite the reality that, short term, these workers will have to accept this horrible situation in order to keep their jobs, if this continues more than a few weeks, many will simply quit and move, as there is no way one can sustain himself or herself on the minimum wage when bringing up a family, and sacrificing their safety every day, to do their job, one they knew would never enrich them, but never dreamed that they would be so disrespected that they would told to take a pay cut, averaging 66 percent!

This is a crisis all of America is going to face if we allow the Republican philosophy of “starving” public services to continue to prevail, all to avoid making those who have more to pay more!

The Formal Beginning Of Barack Obama’s Presidential Re-election Campaign

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Although the Presidential campaign has been on for months, today, six months and one day before the election date, Barack Obama is formally beginning he re-election campaign with speeches at Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio, and Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, Virginia.

Most of the campaign appearances for both Obama and his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, will be centered in both Ohio and Virginia, as Ohio is a state that every Republican winner of the Presidency has won, and Virginia, typically a Republican state in the past half century, has become a real battleground with the growth of the Northern Virginia population near Washington, DC, making the state more likely to go Democratic, as it did in 2008.

As stated elsewhere in this blog, those two states, along with North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Colorado, and Nevada will be the most crucial states, as the seven “swing” states most likely to go either way at this point, but with all seven having gone to Obama in 2008.