Ohio

The Tremendous Dedication Of American Voters In Face Of Republican Attempts To Cut Voting Numbers!

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It is well known that Republican Governors and state legislatures did everything possible to cut down voting days and hours, created photo ID barriers, and to intimidate voters though the organization True-The Vote.

Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and other GOP governed states were outrageous in their misbehavior, and in Florida, 24 hours after the polls officially closed, the vote count goes on, and there is still no declaration of whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney has won the state’s electoral votes, although Obama is ahead in popular votes.

Some people in Florida and elsewhere waited up to seven hours, and as late as 1 AM, determined to cast their vote, and it turned out, the anger of voters showed in the results nationwide, heavily against the Republican Party, and those denying a basic democratic right, the right to vote!

Governor Rick Scott of Florida should be kicked out of office for cutting the number of days for early voting from 14 to 8, and refusing to extend voting, with long lines occurring, for the final Sunday and Monday before Election Day.

Hopefully, the anger of voters will continue to reverberate, and the “Bully Governors” and their party members in the legislatures will be summarily kicked out of office in 2014, as a disgrace to the offices they hold!

BARACK OBAMA WINS SECOND TERM AT 11:12 PM EASTERN TIME!

Ronald 9 Comments

Barack Obama has done it!

He has won reelection by going over the top in Ohio!

There are still states not settled, including Florida and Virginia, but it does not matter now!

He will now go down as one of the greatest Presidents of all time, after a second term where he will have capital to force the Republican House to deal with him on his own demands!

Much commentary will follow, but right now this is a moment to celebrate, as it is a victory for the American people!

Final Projection On Presidential Race: Obama-Biden 332 Electoral Votes, Romney-Ryan 206 Electoral Votes

Ronald 6 Comments

This author has spent a lot of time and effort in studying, analyzing, evaluating the Presidential Election contest of 2012, and is now ready to project the final result.

Barack Obama has been long predicted to win at least 237 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 191 electoral votes, with nine states in play as “swing” or “battleground” states, all of which Obama won in 2008.

The prediction that the author wishes to make is that Obama will win ALL of the nine competitive states, except North Carolina, giving him 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206 electoral votes!

So Obama will win New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado, with a total of 95 electoral votes, added to the 237, making the final total of 332 electoral votes.

Romney, by winning the 15 electoral votes of North Carolina, will go from 191 to 206 in the final total of electoral votes.

It also means that Obama will have won every state he won in 2008, except Indiana and North Carolina, and a total of 26 states and the District of Columbia. Romney will win 24 states.

Also, expect that the popular vote will be close in North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Montana, with Romney winning, but with hints that Democrats will have a grand opportunity to win those states in 2016 and beyond, with the growing Hispanic-Latino vote. The first hint will be the likely victories for the Senate of Democrats Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Richard Carmona in Arizona.

Additionally, Obama should win about 52 percent of the vote to 47 percent of the vote for Romney, with Gary Johnson and other third party candidates winning slightly more than one percent of the total vote.

This means Obama will have won by a slightly smaller percentage of the popular vote and fewer electoral votes, but with the factor of reapportionment of seats due to the Census of 2010 changing downward many of the Frost Belt states which support Barack Obama, plus the loss of North Carolina and Indiana from 2008.

Still, overall, a very impressive performance can be expected!

Comments on this projection of the results are welcome!

Ohio Remains Strongly For Barack Obama With Six Days To Go To Presidential Election

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Ohio, the state that EVERY Republican President has won from Abraham Lincoln to George W. Bush, remains strongly behind Barack Obama, with six days to go to the Presidential Election of 2012.

It seems as if Mitt Romney may be gaining in other “swing states”, according to some polls, although others show otherwise, but without Ohio, Romney would have to win all of the rest of those states to pull out a victory, and despite the Gallup national poll, which shows Romney ahead, the Nate Silver–NY Times model seems more likely the final result.

And if Obama wins Ohio and the election, the likely major reason will be because Obama saved the auto industry in Ohio and the Midwest, while Romney, despite his father’s involvement in the industry, will willing to allow it to die, and take with it, million of jobs, including ancillary industries.

Electoral College Majority For Obama Edges Closer By The Day

Ronald 14 Comments

The standard belief has been that Barack Obama has 237 electoral votes, and Mitt Romney has 191 electoral votes.

But now, two states have been “awarded”, meaning it is felt that each candidate has gained one of them–Nevada with six electoral votes for Obama, and North Carolina with 15 electoral votes for Romney.

So one can now say that the electoral vote total is 243 for Obama and 206 for Romney, with seven states still in play.

But, this author feels it is closer than that to 270 electoral votes for Obama.

Wisconsin seems certain for Obama, and New Hampshire also seems likely, so if they are counted, with 10 and 4 electoral votes, respectively, Obama would have 257 electoral votes, only 13 short of the 270 needed to win the Presidency!

So the remaining battlegrounds are Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado, and even Iowa with six electoral votes seems likely Obama territory, so imagine adding Iowa, and we have 263 electoral votes, seven short of the number needed!

Every indication is that, despite supposedly close polls in percentage of popular votes, the tide is clearly in Obama’s camp, and don’t be surprised if he wins ALL of the remaining states—Ohio, Colorado, Virginia and Florida, in that order of probability!

The Ultimate “Firewall” For Barack Obama: The Midwest

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This author has commented before about the fact that the Midwest, an area of declining electoral votes and representation in Congress, because of the rapid migration from the “Frost Belt” to the “Sun Belt”, remains an area that has had a dramatic effect on American politics and Presidential elections.

Ohio and Missouri have been the ultimately accurate states to predict elections, with Missouri only voting with the loser twice—1956 and 2008—and Ohio, also only twice with the loser—1944 and 1960—since 1900.

And now, with Obama clearly winning Michigan, Minnesota, and Illinois, and seemingly ahead in Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin, the President could afford to lose the three Southern states he won in 2008—Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina—and still win the Electoral College.

With 237 electoral votes in Obama’s camp, and only needing 33 more, Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin would give him 34, raising his total to 271, exactly what George W. Bush won in 2008, against Al Gore, who won the national popular vote by more than 500,000 votes.

With some observers seeing a popular vote surge to Mitt Romney, we could be witnessing a scenario of the same situation as in 2000- –the winner of the electoral vote NOT winning the popular vote, which would make it the fifth time in history, and the second time in 12 years, that such a situation occurred.

The difference is that this time the Democrat will have benefited, while the last time, the Republican benefited.

In a way, if that happened, it would be “justice” for Al Gore supporters and Democrats!

However, it would also lead to growing demands to change the Constitution and get rid of the Electoral College, with the reality being that the likelihood of such a change is near zero!

Positive Signs For The Obama Campaign And The Democrats

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With 23 days to go to the Presidential Election of 2012, the situation is improving for the Democrats and Barack Obama.

The evidence includes the following:

Joe Biden went on the offensive against Paul Ryan, and demonstrated the falsehoods and deceptions promoted by Ryan and his running mate, Mitt Romney.

Barack Obama is working more diligently at debate preparation, and the Town Hall format of the second Presidential debate at Hofstra University in New York on Tuesday favors his strengths, as compared to Romney.

Early voting statistics in Ohio indicate a massive lead for Obama, a very encouraging development. And no Republicans has ever won the Presidency without Ohio, and the Electoral College still favors the President in most scenarios, as he only needs to win two to three of nine states considered “swing” states, to secure 270 electoral votes.

The Democratic Congressional Committee raised twice the amount of the National Republican Congressional Committee in August.

The Obama campaign has gained a grand total of 4 million contributors to their effort, the most in history.

Many incumbent Republicans are facing tough reelection campaigns, including Michele Bachmann, Steve King, Joe Walsh, Eric Cantor, Allen West, and even Paul Ryan.

The odds of a continued Senate majority for the Democrats are increasing.

The chances of a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives are also increasing, with Democrats rating higher in public opinion polls about Congress, than the Republicans.

Of course, the situation will remain fluid, and there could be last minute changes, but right now, things look promising on all fronts!

The State Of The Electoral College 26 Days Before The Election: Obama Wins By More Narrow Margin!

Ronald 2 Comments

There has been a lot of hysteria and panic about Barack Obama, as a result of his sub par performance in the first Presidential debate last week.

But even before the Vice Presidential debate tonight between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan, and next Tuesday’s second Presidential debate between Obama and Mitt Romney, when one thinks clearly and calms down, it is clear that Barack Obama is going to win the election, and that the Electoral College, which elects our Presidents, is favorable to him.

This has been discussed before by this blogger, and certainly the math of the Electoral College is in flux, but still the odds are heavily in favor or Obama winning!

Let’s start with the reality, that Obama has 237 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win, and anyone who hallucinates that somehow, the states that he is seen as having certain in his camp will magically switch to Romney, needs a dose of reality!

Obama will win the entire Northeast (except possibly New Hampshire); Illinois, Michigan and Minnesota in the Midwest; New Mexico; the Pacific Coast; and Hawaii. This is a total of 18 states and the District of Columbia. No money is being spent by the Romney campaign in these states, as Romney alienated Michigan in calling for the bankruptcy of the auto industry, and Minnesota has never been seen as a state that was seriously a candidate to back Romney’s candidacy, although if former Governor Tim Pawlenty had been Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate, Minnesota might have been in play!

Everyone talks about “swing states”, and yes, there are nine of those up for grabs, but in four of them, Obama is favored because the unemployment rate is lower than the national average—New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Iowa–with a total of 41 electoral votes, which if added to the 237 for Obama, becomes a grant total of 278 electoral votes, 8 more than needed.

Iowa is sixth lowest unemployment rate with 5.5%; New Hampshire is seventh lowest with 5.7%; Virginia is tenth lowest with 5.9 %; and Ohio is 20th lowest with 7.2%. Additionally, Wisconsin is 25th lowest with 7.5%—all five of these states under the national rate of 7.8%!

Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada have higher unemployment rates, and therefore can be seen as much more difficult for Obama to win, particularly after the “bump” in some polls for Romney after the first Presidential debate.

So let’s assume the latter four states, and even Wisconsin (as the home of Paul Ryan) go to Romney. It still is not enough, as the most he would have then would be 260 electoral votes, ten short of the number needed to win the Presidency!

The Electoral College numbers are still subject to change over the next 26 days, but it is safe to say, that the LOW point is 278 electoral votes for Barack Obama from a total of 22 states and the District of Columbia, with still the potential for Obama to win all nine of the ‘swing states”, rather than four, and a grand high total of 347 electoral votes to 191 for Mitt Romney!

A Good Week For Barack Obama, Including Debate Performance!

Ronald Leave a comment

The first week of October has been good to Barack Obama!

His Gallup poll rating is at its highest since the fall of 2009, now registering at 54 percent! This is a strong indication of his upcoming victory precisely one month from today!

Many want to believe that his debate performance harmed him, without realizing that while he might not have been at his best, it really does not matter, as incumbent Presidents tend to do poorly on the first debate with a challenger, as indicated in an earlier post. After all, they have more on their mind than the campaign, such as governing and dealing with crises on a daily basis. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney has done nothing for the past six years other than run for President, and he has had a multitude of mistakes and poor performances with his rhetoric and comments!

If Obama had come out charging in this first debate, he would be accused of being an “angry black man”, which terrifies many working class whites and uneducated people, who are accustomed to a different image of blacks, which is an unspoken sign of massive racism! So if he smiles and lets Mitt Romney hang himself as a phony, a chameleon, a liar on a massive scale, he is criticized, but Romney has added to the image that he is untrustworthy by his aggressive performance full of deceit and manipulation! Obama actually handled the situation well, and that will be seen as time goes by!

Now that Romney has proved again that he is a charlatan, Joe Biden will go on the assault against ideologue Paul Ryan, and then Obama will go after Romney in the last two Presidential debates. He will follow Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush in recovering from a theoretical first debate that was unimpressive, to go on to electoral victory!

But also, the victories for voting rights in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and the stopping of voter registration by Republicans in Florida and four other states, due to obvious GOP corruption, will upend the Republican attempt to cut out millions of potential Democratic voters in “swing” states.

And the economic revival that is going on, lowering the unemployment rate below 8 percent for the first time in his term of office, will help Obama, as most sane people will dismiss the conspiracy theories of conservatives and Republicans that the honorable and independent Bureau Of Labor Statistics is corrupt!

And the fact that Obama saved the auto industry; has seen the stock market double during his term; that manufacturing is reviving in America; and that energy production is up domestically without destroying the environment—-all this is further proof that this has been a good week on the road to ultimate victory one month from now!

Pennsylvania Supreme Court Rejects Voter Suppression Bill, Sends It Back To Lower Court

Ronald Leave a comment

A major victory for those fighting voter suppression laws was won this week in Pennsylvania, where the six member court of three Republicans and three Democrats sent the state legislature’s Republican sponsored voter ID law back to a lower court for reconsideration, meaning the likelihood that the law will not be able to be used for this fall’s election.

Two Democrats wanted the law declared unconstitutional, but one Democrat and the three Republicans decided instead to have it reconsidered by a lower court, a delaying tactic not as good as dismissing the law, but enough to make it ineffective for an election six weeks away!

This development, plus actions in courts in Ohio, Florida and Texas, make the ability of Republicans to prevent people from voting far less possible, and there has been a firing up of motivation by Democratic oriented voters to do everything they have to do to be able to vote, including spending the time to get necessary documentation, so that they cannot be denied the right to vote by any poll worker at voting sites.

But there is a conspiracy by the group called True The Vote to intimidate voters, particularly minority voters, by stalking them, making them feel they are being followed by police officers, making them afraid to vote, and challenging them at the polls as to their right to vote, even though they are not the poll workers!

The Tea Party Movement is promoting this, basically trying to bring back the Jim Crow segregation era, particularly in Southern states, but also in Republican governed states. If they cannot get the courts to back them up, they will do so by personal interference, and the promotion of fear among voters to prevent them from casting their vote.

So the battle for democracy, that everyone can vote without interference, has had some victories, but attention must be paid to the True The Vote and Tea Party activities, and everything must be done to expose and prevent any suppression efforts by this despicable group and their backers!