New Hampshire

Scott Brown: “Carpetbagger” And Multi State Senator?

Ronald 4 Comments

Scott Brown served almost three years in the US Senate from Massachusetts, winning a special election to replace Ted Kennedy by defeating Attorney General Martha Coakley early in 2010. Then, he lost the full Senate term to Elizabeth Warren in 2012.

Now, Scott Brown wants to come back to the Senate in 2015, but from New Hampshire, as he turned down the chance to run for the vacant Senate seat given up by John Kerry when he became Secretary of State in 2013.

So Scott Brown hopes to do what has not been done since the 1870s and only twice ever, to serve in the Senate from more than one state, with the record being set by James Shields, who served Illinois from 1849-1855, Minnesota in 1858, and Missouri in 1879. One other earlier Senator, unclear who it is at this moment, also served two states.

So for 135 years this has never happened, and very few “carpetbagger” Senators have served since the Reconstruction Era 150 years ago.

The only major examples are New York’s two “outsiders,” often called “carpetbaggers,” but elected despite not really being New Yorkers–Robert F. Kennedy (1965-1968), and Hillary Clinton (2001-2009).

The only modern example of a Senator trying to be elected from a second state was New York Senator James Buckley (1971-1977) , who tried and failed to be elected as a “carpetbagger” from Connecticut in 1980.

So Scott Brown is fighting history and tradition, and except for New York, the willingness to elect an “outsider” to the Senate, although Brown has had a second home in New Hampshire for many years, while always being in office in the state legislature of Massachusetts, and identifying himself as a Massachusetts resident.

His New Hampshire opponent, Senator and former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, will be a tough opponent, and she is highly favored to win, in a state where the two Senators, two House members, and the Governor, are all women, and all Democrats, except for Senator Kelly Ayotte.

It is ironic that in each race Brown has entered for the US Senate, that his opponent has been a woman—Martha Coakley, Elizabeth Warren, and now Jeanne Shaheen.

Don’t put any betting money on Scott Brown making history in 2014 in New Hampshire!

Twenty Women In The United States Senate In The 113th Congress: All Time High!

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The 113th Congress will have TWENTY women, the highest number in American history!

The 112th Congress had seventeen women, 12 Democrats and 5 Republicans.

The 113th Congress will have 16 Democrats and 4 Republicans, with Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas, both Republicans, retiring!

Five new women will join the Senate—Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts,.Tammy Baldwin of WIsconsin, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, and Deb Fischer of Nebraska, with Fischer being the lone Republican. Fifteen women Senators will remain, including three Republicans—Susan Collins of Maine, Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. The twelve returning Democratic women include: Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Barbara Mikulski of Maryland, Kay Hagan of North Carolina, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Diane Feinstein of California, Barbara Boxer of California, Parry Murray of Washington, and Maria Cantwell of Washington.

Also, three states have both Senators being women—New Hampshire, California, and Washington!

And to top it off, New Hampshire not only has two women Senators, but also both House members are women, and the new Governor is a woman, the first state to have an all female representation in Congress and the Governorship!

How far America has come as we enter the year 2013!

2012—The ULTIMATE “Year Of The Woman”!

Ronald 1 Comment

The year 1992 was called “The Year of the Woman”, as we saw more women elected to public office twenty years ago, than at any other time in American history.

Well, now, step aside, as 2012 is now the TRUE “Year of the Woman”!

In 2013, there will be TWENTY women in the US Senate, and SEVENTY SEVEN women in the House of Representatives!

Additionally, the state of New Hampshire will be the first state to have an all female leadership, as Governor, in the US Senate, and in the House Of Representatives!

With so many women having political influence, and with the likelihood of one or more women planning to run for President in 2016, the role of women is rapidly becoming one of great admiration and significance historically!

The Ultimate Smack To Mitt Romney: Loss Of Four Of His Five States He Identifies With!

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Mitt Romney received the ultimate humiliation on Election Day 2012!

He lost his home state of Michigan, where his father was Governor, by a landslide!

He lost his adopted state of Massachusetts, where he served one term as Governor, by a double landslide!

He lost his other New England home, New Hampshire, by a clear cut margin!

He lost the state where he is building a mansion with a car elevator, California, by a double landslide!

He managed to win Utah, the Mormon state, connected to his leadership in the Church, but overall, fewer Mormons voted for him this year, than for George W. Bush in 2008!

What it comes down to is that Mitt Romney is not well liked, and it is his own fault, due to his arrogance, his lying, his sense of entitlement!

So, Mitt Romney is disappearing fast, and no one really cares! He will be a bad memory in the future!

Final Projection On Presidential Race: Obama-Biden 332 Electoral Votes, Romney-Ryan 206 Electoral Votes

Ronald 6 Comments

This author has spent a lot of time and effort in studying, analyzing, evaluating the Presidential Election contest of 2012, and is now ready to project the final result.

Barack Obama has been long predicted to win at least 237 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 191 electoral votes, with nine states in play as “swing” or “battleground” states, all of which Obama won in 2008.

The prediction that the author wishes to make is that Obama will win ALL of the nine competitive states, except North Carolina, giving him 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206 electoral votes!

So Obama will win New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado, with a total of 95 electoral votes, added to the 237, making the final total of 332 electoral votes.

Romney, by winning the 15 electoral votes of North Carolina, will go from 191 to 206 in the final total of electoral votes.

It also means that Obama will have won every state he won in 2008, except Indiana and North Carolina, and a total of 26 states and the District of Columbia. Romney will win 24 states.

Also, expect that the popular vote will be close in North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Montana, with Romney winning, but with hints that Democrats will have a grand opportunity to win those states in 2016 and beyond, with the growing Hispanic-Latino vote. The first hint will be the likely victories for the Senate of Democrats Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Richard Carmona in Arizona.

Additionally, Obama should win about 52 percent of the vote to 47 percent of the vote for Romney, with Gary Johnson and other third party candidates winning slightly more than one percent of the total vote.

This means Obama will have won by a slightly smaller percentage of the popular vote and fewer electoral votes, but with the factor of reapportionment of seats due to the Census of 2010 changing downward many of the Frost Belt states which support Barack Obama, plus the loss of North Carolina and Indiana from 2008.

Still, overall, a very impressive performance can be expected!

Comments on this projection of the results are welcome!

Electoral College Majority For Obama Edges Closer By The Day

Ronald 14 Comments

The standard belief has been that Barack Obama has 237 electoral votes, and Mitt Romney has 191 electoral votes.

But now, two states have been “awarded”, meaning it is felt that each candidate has gained one of them–Nevada with six electoral votes for Obama, and North Carolina with 15 electoral votes for Romney.

So one can now say that the electoral vote total is 243 for Obama and 206 for Romney, with seven states still in play.

But, this author feels it is closer than that to 270 electoral votes for Obama.

Wisconsin seems certain for Obama, and New Hampshire also seems likely, so if they are counted, with 10 and 4 electoral votes, respectively, Obama would have 257 electoral votes, only 13 short of the 270 needed to win the Presidency!

So the remaining battlegrounds are Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado, and even Iowa with six electoral votes seems likely Obama territory, so imagine adding Iowa, and we have 263 electoral votes, seven short of the number needed!

Every indication is that, despite supposedly close polls in percentage of popular votes, the tide is clearly in Obama’s camp, and don’t be surprised if he wins ALL of the remaining states—Ohio, Colorado, Virginia and Florida, in that order of probability!

The State Of The Electoral College 26 Days Before The Election: Obama Wins By More Narrow Margin!

Ronald 2 Comments

There has been a lot of hysteria and panic about Barack Obama, as a result of his sub par performance in the first Presidential debate last week.

But even before the Vice Presidential debate tonight between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan, and next Tuesday’s second Presidential debate between Obama and Mitt Romney, when one thinks clearly and calms down, it is clear that Barack Obama is going to win the election, and that the Electoral College, which elects our Presidents, is favorable to him.

This has been discussed before by this blogger, and certainly the math of the Electoral College is in flux, but still the odds are heavily in favor or Obama winning!

Let’s start with the reality, that Obama has 237 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win, and anyone who hallucinates that somehow, the states that he is seen as having certain in his camp will magically switch to Romney, needs a dose of reality!

Obama will win the entire Northeast (except possibly New Hampshire); Illinois, Michigan and Minnesota in the Midwest; New Mexico; the Pacific Coast; and Hawaii. This is a total of 18 states and the District of Columbia. No money is being spent by the Romney campaign in these states, as Romney alienated Michigan in calling for the bankruptcy of the auto industry, and Minnesota has never been seen as a state that was seriously a candidate to back Romney’s candidacy, although if former Governor Tim Pawlenty had been Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate, Minnesota might have been in play!

Everyone talks about “swing states”, and yes, there are nine of those up for grabs, but in four of them, Obama is favored because the unemployment rate is lower than the national average—New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Iowa–with a total of 41 electoral votes, which if added to the 237 for Obama, becomes a grant total of 278 electoral votes, 8 more than needed.

Iowa is sixth lowest unemployment rate with 5.5%; New Hampshire is seventh lowest with 5.7%; Virginia is tenth lowest with 5.9 %; and Ohio is 20th lowest with 7.2%. Additionally, Wisconsin is 25th lowest with 7.5%—all five of these states under the national rate of 7.8%!

Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada have higher unemployment rates, and therefore can be seen as much more difficult for Obama to win, particularly after the “bump” in some polls for Romney after the first Presidential debate.

So let’s assume the latter four states, and even Wisconsin (as the home of Paul Ryan) go to Romney. It still is not enough, as the most he would have then would be 260 electoral votes, ten short of the number needed to win the Presidency!

The Electoral College numbers are still subject to change over the next 26 days, but it is safe to say, that the LOW point is 278 electoral votes for Barack Obama from a total of 22 states and the District of Columbia, with still the potential for Obama to win all nine of the ‘swing states”, rather than four, and a grand high total of 347 electoral votes to 191 for Mitt Romney!

Early Voting Begins In Half Of The States, BEFORE Presidential Debates!

Ronald Leave a comment

Early voting has begun in 25 states, a week BEFORE the Presidential debates begin. And five more states will begin early voting by the end of September.

This includes the “swing” states of Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, so for many voters, it is already too late for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan to change people’s minds, particularly after recent gaffes by the Republican team!

It is expected that one third of all votes will be cast before Election Day, a growing number every Presidential year, and therefore a “wild card” that will affect the election results!

Romney And Ryan On Way To Losing Every State Connected To Them, Except Utah!

Ronald 2 Comments

It seems clear that Wisconsin Republican Congressman Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate, will not be able to help win Wisconsin in the Presidential election, as one polls shows a 14 point lead now for Barack Obama.

But Mitt Romney, who has connections to five states in his life, also seems likely to lose all but Utah, the center of the Mormon Church/\.

Romney will not win Massachusetts, where he governed; Michigan, where he grew up; New Hampshire, where he has a home, but is running behind Obama; and California, where he has the infamous home which is having a car elevator installed!

What a pitiful record when neither running mate on the GOP line can claim a home state in their favor, and only the Mormon dominated Utah can be seen as supporting Mitt Romney!

“Swing” States Down To Eight, Narrowing Romney Chances Of Winning Presidency!

Ronald Leave a comment

The Mitt Romney Presidential campaign has decided to buy advertising time on television in only eight states, narrowing the chance that the former Massachusetts Governor can win the Presidency.

Eliminated as places of opportunity are Michigan, the birthplace and childhood of Romney, and the state that his father was Governor in the 1960s; Wisconsin, the birthplace and home of his running mate, Paul Ryan; and Pennsylvania, despite the well known white male battleground of western Pennsylvania, often thought to be an Achilles Heel for Barack Obama!

So what are the states still in play?

New Hampshire–4 electoral votes
Virginia–13 electoral votes
North Carolina–15 electoral votes
Florida–29 electoral votes
Ohio–18 electoral votes
Iowa–6 electoral votes
Colorado–9 electoral votes
Nevada–6 electoral votes

The total electoral votes in play are 100, while Obama leads with 247 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney has 191 electoral votes from 23 states. Remember that the winner of the election must have 270 electoral votes.

So, with the updated realities that even Romney’s advertising campaign reflects, Obama wins If

he wins Florida (29 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Virginia (31 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and North Carolina (33 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Iowa or Nevada (24 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Colorado (27 electoral votes)
he wins New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Colorado (24 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Iowa and Nevada (27 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Iowa and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Colorado and New Hampshire (26 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia, Colorado, and either Iowa or Nevada (28 electoral votes)

So these are ELEVEN scenarios where Barack Obama has the advantage–needing only between one and four states of the eight “swing” states to win the Presidency in the Electoral College!

The unemployment rate is lower than the national average in New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio and Iowa, while higher in North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

So if one were to assume that the four states that have the lower unemployment rate than the national average go to Obama, he wins 41 electoral votes, for a grand total of 288 electoral votes.

Of course, there are five states, that are considered “red” or Republican states, that actually are in play, although expected to go to Romney. These are Indiana (11 electoral votes), which went to Obama in 2008; Missouri (10 electoral votes), which was won by John McCain in 2008 by only about 4,000 votes; Montana (3 electoral votes), which is becoming more Democratic; Arizona (11 electoral votes), which is moving toward Democratic over time with the growing Hispanic vote, and the controversial immigration law under Governor Jan Brewer; and Georgia (16 electoral votes), which is gaining a large Hispanic population, which means it will likely trend Democratic over the next few election cycles. Were all of these to go Democratic in a close vote situation, Obama could, theoretically, win 51 more electoral votes!

So, IF Obama were to win all of the eight “swing states” now in play, based on Romney’s decision as to what states to spend money on advertising, he would go from what seems clearly 247 electoral votes to 347 electoral votes–meaning he would have won all of the states he won in 2008, except for Indiana!

This is 18 electoral votes fewer than in 2008, when Obama won 365 electoral votes–due to the theoretical loss of Indiana (11 electoral votes), plus the fact that the states he won lost a total of 7 electoral votes due to reapportionment of seats in Congress, based on the 2010 Census.

But IF Obama were to win the “red” states that could be in play, listed above, a total of five states with 51 electoral votes, his highest theoretical total of electoral votes would reach 398 electoral votes, meaning Romney would win only 140 electoral votes, with Obama winning 32 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney winning 18 states!

The ultimate point of this discussion is to make it clear that the odds of Obama being re-elected are very high, despite the supposedly tight popular vote on a national level, which really proves nothing, as the polls on popular vote in the eight “swing” states demonstrate that Obama is ahead in all of them, except in North Carolina and Colorado, so to bet against Obama would be a losing bet, best thought about before being placed, as the odds of losing large amounts of money is extremely a likely occurrence!