Nevada

Gary Johnson And Virgil Goode Could Siphon Support For Mitt Romney In Several “Swing” States

Ronald Leave a comment

Gary Johnson is the former Republican New Mexico Governor, and Libertarian Party candidate for President. He is also on the ballot in 47 states.

Virgil Goode is a former Republican Congressman from a district in Virginia, and Constitution Party candidate for President. He is also on the ballot in two dozen states.

Johnson is believed to have support in New Mexico, Montana, Nevada and Colorado, while Goode is thought to have support in Virginia.

Notice that these are all considered “swing” states, although New Mexico has been seen as less so than it once was, and is generally not included in recent months as being in that category. And Montana is one of those few states thought to be Republican, but with some possibility of switching to the Democrats.

But also notice that all of these states are now considered to be in favor of Barack Obama, except Montana.

So the question arises, will these former Republicans hurt Romney enough that he loses these “swing” states and even Montana, or will Obama win even with some support for Johnson and Goode in these states?

In other words, can Johnson and Goode end up for Romney as Ralph Nader was for Al Gore in 2000, the difference in votes that caused Gore’s defeat for President?

It will be interesting to see if either or both third party candidates have a significant impact on the results of the election!

“Swing” States Down To Eight, Narrowing Romney Chances Of Winning Presidency!

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The Mitt Romney Presidential campaign has decided to buy advertising time on television in only eight states, narrowing the chance that the former Massachusetts Governor can win the Presidency.

Eliminated as places of opportunity are Michigan, the birthplace and childhood of Romney, and the state that his father was Governor in the 1960s; Wisconsin, the birthplace and home of his running mate, Paul Ryan; and Pennsylvania, despite the well known white male battleground of western Pennsylvania, often thought to be an Achilles Heel for Barack Obama!

So what are the states still in play?

New Hampshire–4 electoral votes
Virginia–13 electoral votes
North Carolina–15 electoral votes
Florida–29 electoral votes
Ohio–18 electoral votes
Iowa–6 electoral votes
Colorado–9 electoral votes
Nevada–6 electoral votes

The total electoral votes in play are 100, while Obama leads with 247 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney has 191 electoral votes from 23 states. Remember that the winner of the election must have 270 electoral votes.

So, with the updated realities that even Romney’s advertising campaign reflects, Obama wins If

he wins Florida (29 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Virginia (31 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and North Carolina (33 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Iowa or Nevada (24 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Colorado (27 electoral votes)
he wins New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Colorado (24 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Iowa and Nevada (27 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Iowa and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Colorado and New Hampshire (26 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia, Colorado, and either Iowa or Nevada (28 electoral votes)

So these are ELEVEN scenarios where Barack Obama has the advantage–needing only between one and four states of the eight “swing” states to win the Presidency in the Electoral College!

The unemployment rate is lower than the national average in New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio and Iowa, while higher in North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

So if one were to assume that the four states that have the lower unemployment rate than the national average go to Obama, he wins 41 electoral votes, for a grand total of 288 electoral votes.

Of course, there are five states, that are considered “red” or Republican states, that actually are in play, although expected to go to Romney. These are Indiana (11 electoral votes), which went to Obama in 2008; Missouri (10 electoral votes), which was won by John McCain in 2008 by only about 4,000 votes; Montana (3 electoral votes), which is becoming more Democratic; Arizona (11 electoral votes), which is moving toward Democratic over time with the growing Hispanic vote, and the controversial immigration law under Governor Jan Brewer; and Georgia (16 electoral votes), which is gaining a large Hispanic population, which means it will likely trend Democratic over the next few election cycles. Were all of these to go Democratic in a close vote situation, Obama could, theoretically, win 51 more electoral votes!

So, IF Obama were to win all of the eight “swing states” now in play, based on Romney’s decision as to what states to spend money on advertising, he would go from what seems clearly 247 electoral votes to 347 electoral votes–meaning he would have won all of the states he won in 2008, except for Indiana!

This is 18 electoral votes fewer than in 2008, when Obama won 365 electoral votes–due to the theoretical loss of Indiana (11 electoral votes), plus the fact that the states he won lost a total of 7 electoral votes due to reapportionment of seats in Congress, based on the 2010 Census.

But IF Obama were to win the “red” states that could be in play, listed above, a total of five states with 51 electoral votes, his highest theoretical total of electoral votes would reach 398 electoral votes, meaning Romney would win only 140 electoral votes, with Obama winning 32 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney winning 18 states!

The ultimate point of this discussion is to make it clear that the odds of Obama being re-elected are very high, despite the supposedly tight popular vote on a national level, which really proves nothing, as the polls on popular vote in the eight “swing” states demonstrate that Obama is ahead in all of them, except in North Carolina and Colorado, so to bet against Obama would be a losing bet, best thought about before being placed, as the odds of losing large amounts of money is extremely a likely occurrence!

The Democratic Platform And Israel: An Unnecessary Blunder By Barack Obama! UPDATE: NOW RETURNED TO LANGUAGE OF 2008 PLATFORM, A GREAT MOVE!

Ronald 12 Comments

The decision of the Obama Administration and the Democratic Platform Committee at the Democratic National Convention, to eliminate language which was in the 2008 platform–referring to Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and language dealing with the terrorist group Hamas, and the issue of negotiation of the fate of displaced Palestinian refugees by Israel—is an unnecessary blunder that should have been avoided.

Everyone who is fair minded knows that Barack Obama’s Presidency has been one of full support of Israel on all matters that impact them, while occasionally disagreeing on tactics and approaches of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, and the Israeli President, Shimon Peres, have both praised Obama, and declared him as strong a supporter of Israel as any President, since the founding of the Jewish state in 1948.

But the Republican Jewish Coalition and the Mitt Romney Presidential campaign are now jumping on the removal of the platform language, and it puts Obama and the Democratic Party on the defensive, when keeping the language would have avoided this problem, and would have done no harm.

So it is not the issue of being angry with Obama, although some Jews, obviously, will be so, but rather, why, oh why, did the President decide to “shoot himself in the foot”, and create an issue which might impact the election in the swing states, particularly Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, in particular, and might also make the victories of the President in other states with substantial Jewish populations a bit closer, and might affect Congressional or Senate races.

The Jewish vote, if a large percentage abandon the President and the Democratic Party, could have long range implications that no one is thinking about now.

And it could make the Islamic world think that Obama might not support Israel to the extreme, in case of an Iranian crisis, even though one should have no doubt about the matter, in reality. But perceptions often matter more than reality, so this is something that Barack Obama and the Democrats will regret, as it gives unnecessary ammunition to the Republican Party!

It has just been learned that the 2008 Platform language on Jerusalem being Israel’s capital city has been returned to the document, a GREAT MOVE!

Women Democratic Senate Nominees Could Boost Female Senate Total In 2013

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Five Democratic women are running for US Senate seats in 2012, and if they can win, it would boost the number of Democratic women in the Senate dramatically!

These candidates include:

Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts, against Senator Scott Brown.

Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, against former Governor Tommy Thompson.

Congresswoman Shelley Berkley in Nevada, against Senator Dean Heller.

Congesswoman Mazie Hirono in Hawaii, against former Governor Linda Lingle.

Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, against Congressman Rick Berg.

All five would add to the progressive bloc in the Senate, and would be strong supporters of women’s rights, labor rights, consumer rights, civil rights, and gay rights.

And Warren and Berkley victories would add two seats to the Democratic side, at a time when the Senate only has a six seat edge, 53-47, and is losing seven incumbent Democrats who are retiring, and facing five competitive races in which Democrats are in danger of losing their seats.

Growing Possibility Of Libertarian Gary Johnson Having Impact On Presidential Election Of 2012

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Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s Presidential candidate, is showing some strength in polls that indicates he could be the “spoiler” in the 2012 Presidential Election, similar to what Ralph Nader was in the Presidential Election of 2000.

The effect, if Johnson gained a few percent of the vote in “battleground” or “swing” states, would be most likely to hurt Mitt Romney, the Republican Presidential nominee, rather than Democrat Barack Obama, since it seems more likely that libertarian support would come from elements in the GOP.

So the thought is that Johnson could affect the vote in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada, and help, indirectly, President Obama to win those states, although right now, Obama has the edge in Virginia, Florida, and Nevada, and is slightly ahead in Colorado, while behind in North Carolina.

If Johnson can win 3-5 percent of the vote, he could go down in history as notable enough to be recorded as having affected the election, just as Ralph Nader in 2000.

Wing Nuts Of 2010, And Now Of 2012–Lost Republican Opportunities In The Senate Then, And Possibly, Now!

Ronald Leave a comment

The Republican Party is infamous for running wing nuts for the Senate, and as a result, lost the chance for control of the US Senate in 2010.

They ran such characters as Christine O’Donnell in Delaware; Ken Buck in Colorado; Sharron Angle in Nevada; and Joe Miller in Alaska.

The first three were so whacky that the Democrats held on to the seats, and kept control of the Senate, with Harry Reid of Nevada remaining Senate Majority Leader. Lisa Murkowski won a miraculous victory in Alaska over Tea Party favored Joe Miller, keeping that seat sane and sensible, while Republican.

At the same time, Rand Paul and Mike Lee won in Kentucky and Utah, respectively, and Marco Rubio was also backed by the Tea Party, and now Paul and Rubio are likely leaders of the party in the near future, no matter how right wing they are!

Now we have in 2012 the following: Ted Cruz in Texas, backed by the Tea Party and likely to win a Senate seat; Debbie Fischer in Nebraska, who faces former Democratic Senator and Presidential seeker Bob Kerrey, who faces a tough battle; Richard Murdock, who defeated respectable conservative Richard Lugar in Indiana; and now, Todd Akin, challenging Senator Claire McCaskell in Missouri.

With the likelihood of Cruz, Fischer, and Murdock victories for the Tea Party and the right wing of the social conservatives, the only thing that may stop GOP control of the US Senate is the Todd Akin controversy, but in theory, Akin could win that race too, and with only three or four seats gain needed to win control of the Senate for the Republicans, the future makeup of the Senate is disturbing!

It should be pointed out that the Texas and Indiana seats coming up for election are already GOP seats, so only Nebraska and maybe Missouri would be gains for the Tea Party element as things stand now! But going from Kay Bailey Hutchison and Richard Lugar to Ted Cruz and Richard Murdock is a major step backward toward further deadlock, confrontation, and paralysis in a Senate already with a terrible reputation

Medicare Will Decide The Election: IF Obama Wins Florida AND New Hampshire Of “Battleground” States, He Wins The Presidency!

Ronald Leave a comment

Chuck Todd of NBC’s Meet The Press just demonstrated how close Barack Obama is to a victory for the White House.

Showing an electoral vote map with 237 electoral votes in Obama’s camp and 191 in Mitt Romney’s camp, Todd demonstrates that there are NINE true “battleground” or “swing” states, and if Obama wins Florida and New Hampshire, he has the second term he wants in the White House! And the issue of Medicare, brought to central focus by Paul Ryan and his budget plans on that program, will be the center of the victory of Obama for the Presidency!

Even if Romney wins the other seven contestable states—Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada—he would lose the Electoral College 270-268, due to Florida’s 29 electoral votes and New Hampshire’s 4 electoral votes!

But, to assume that Obama would really lose all seven of those states is also delusional, as it is certain that he will win some, and probably, most of them!

This author has been saying this for a long time, and has found some readers of this blog, conservative and Republican friends and associates, and people on Fox News Channel and talk radio, act as if only the public opinion polls, which often show a close race in many states and nationally, should be paid attention to, but that is NOT the case!

The election is decided by the Electoral College, NOT the popular vote nationally,and do not forget that George W. Bush LOST the popular vote in 2000, but was declared the winner of the Electoral College! The same happened to Benjamin Harrison, Rutherford Hayes, and John Quincy Adams in the past!

But to conclude that, somehow, Barack Obama will lose the national popular vote, with the Republican alienation of Hispanics-Latinos, African Americans, women, young voters, the middle class, senior citizens, gays and lesbians, the poor, labor, educators, consumer advocates, environmentalists, and secular voters—in each case, the majority, not all of any group, of course—indicates that those believing what they do are indeed delusional, and cannot be helped by ordinary medical intervention!

Latest Poll Averages Show Obama Ahead Of Romney In Eleven Of Twelve Battleground States!

Ronald Leave a comment

Barack Obama may be only slightly ahead of Mitt Romney nationally in the average of various polls–47.3 percent to 44.7 percent, but when one looks at twelve battleground or swing states, he is ahead of Romney in all but North Carolina, where he trails Romney by 48.5 to 46.5, two percentage points.

Obama is ahead by almost 6 points in Ohio; by 2.5 points in Virginia; by 3 points in Florida; by 6.5 points in Pennsylvania; by almost 4 points in Iowa; by 5.5 points in Nevada; by 5 points in Wisconsin; by 7 points in New Mexico; by 6.5 points in Michigan; and by almost 3 points in New Hampshire. In Colorado, the margin is only two tenths of one point for Obama over Romney, nearly an even split.

So Obama is ahead in 10 of the 12 states listed, all of which he won in 2008, nearly even in Colorado, and only behind in North Carolina!

Not bad considering the blistering attacks and lies and deception that have been going on for three and a half years as President, greater than any President since the last one who was called every name in the book, and yet won a landslide victory in 1936 in the midst of the Great Depression, with unemployment levels still much higher than they are in 2012.

The author is referring here to Franklin D. Roosevelt!

America’s Future: A Majority “Minority” Nation! Time To Adjust To Reality!

Ronald 2 Comments

The US Census Bureau has made it official: America is on the way to becoming a majority “minority” country , which will occur by the 2040s, no matter what the white majority, which has dominated America, wishes.

This is so because, for the first time, a majority of children being born are non white by definition, as in the twelve months ending June 30, 2011, 50.4 percent of the births in America were to Hispanic and Latino, African American, and Asian American parents.

Only 49.6 percent of births were to white parents.The economy, politics, and identity of the nation is changing rapidly, and we will never be the same!

Whites are no longer the majority in four states, and in such cities as New York, Las Vegas and Memphis. About 350 counties nationwide have a majority of nonwhites, and about double that number when one considers young children.

And the baby boomer generation, now aging, was vastly white, and now sees a younger generation growing up which is going to be majority nonwhite, a cultural clash already showing up in the fact that senior citizen whites are overwhelmingly Republicans, who are fighting the future, but represent basically the past that is quickly dying out before their eyes!

While whites still represent 63 percent of all Americans, the average median age for whites is 42, past prime child bearing age, while for Hispanics and Latinos, it is 27, and more Hispanic children were born in America in the past decade than Hispanic immigration to the United States in that period.

So minorities were 92 percent of all growth in the past decade, an astounding figure!

This reality is creating tensions between white elderly and minority young, particularly in Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and California.

This is a growing crisis particularly regarding education, as only 13 percent of Hispanics and Latinos have a college degree, only 18 percent of African Americans, but 31 percent of whites.

Education is the future for the nation, or else we will have a lot of minority young who cannot make a living and sustain the elderly whites who are retired and receive Social Security and Medicare.

This is the major social crisis of the future, and the political parties need to come to grips with it, and not only think about how the situation is at present. A vision for the future is essential!

The Formal Beginning Of Barack Obama’s Presidential Re-election Campaign

Ronald Leave a comment

Although the Presidential campaign has been on for months, today, six months and one day before the election date, Barack Obama is formally beginning he re-election campaign with speeches at Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio, and Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, Virginia.

Most of the campaign appearances for both Obama and his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, will be centered in both Ohio and Virginia, as Ohio is a state that every Republican winner of the Presidency has won, and Virginia, typically a Republican state in the past half century, has become a real battleground with the growth of the Northern Virginia population near Washington, DC, making the state more likely to go Democratic, as it did in 2008.

As stated elsewhere in this blog, those two states, along with North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Colorado, and Nevada will be the most crucial states, as the seven “swing” states most likely to go either way at this point, but with all seven having gone to Obama in 2008.