Wisconsin

Democrats Gaining In Southeast And Southwest, Likely Transforming American Politics In The 2020s

Indications are that Democrats are starting to gain support in both the Southeast (North Carolina, Georgia) and the Southwest (Arizona), and are running even in Florida and Texas, and keeping their lead in Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

If this trend continues, the Midwest Rust Belt states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania), while still important, will be less significant in future Presidential elections.

And it looks as if many of the Senate seats that are being decided this November will end up with a Democratic Senator–as in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico.

The electoral map in future elections will be vastly different than it has been in previous election rounds.

Ohio, The Buckeye State, May Again Be Instructive On Presidential Election

Ohio, the Buckeye State, may again be instructive on the Presidential Election of 2020, as it has been 45 out of 54 times in the past, and only twice on the losing side since 1900–1944 and 1960!

No Republican President has won the White House without winning Ohio.

Ohio is 34th largest of the 50 states in land area; 10th most densely populated; and seventh most populous; and it has been losing electoral votes steadily over the decades, as the Sun Belt states have grown larger in population.

But it still matters greatly, and recent polls indicate Joe Biden taking a lead in Ohio over Donald Trump.

As I wrote on this blog on September 15, 2018, Ohio historically has been the most predictable state in the Electoral College results, followed by Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico.

If Donald Trump cannot win Ohio, there is no path for him to win the Presidency for a second term in 2020. The public opinion polls as I write, indicate troubles for Trump also in Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, so the Midwest heartland is not for him, as things stand now.

Reality: If Biden Wins Florida, He Only Needs To Win One More Trump State Of 2016!

The odds of Donald Trump being able to pull out a win in November is very poor, particularly if Florida, third in electoral votes with 29, goes to Joe Biden.

The Democratic states of 2016 all seem solid for Joe Biden, although the Republicans are trying to win New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada and New Mexico, but the odds are very long against that occurring.

With Florida being won by Biden, all that the Democratic Presidential nominee needs to hit the 270 mark is win one of the following:

Pennsylvania 20 electoral votes

Michigan 16 electoral votes

Wisconsin 10 electoral votes

North Carolina 15 electoral votes

Arizona 11 electoral votes

Ohio 18 electoral votes

Georgia 16 electoral votes

Right now, in public opinion polls, Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in all but the last two states, and one must remember that in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Trump only won by a combination of 78,000 votes combined in 2016!

Florida is prime territory for Democrats, with the growing Puerto Rican population, enhanced by the hurricane which hit that island in 2017, and by senior citizens notably turning against Donald Trump in the midst of the CoronaVirus Pandemic. Since Trump did not win by very much in Florida in 2016, and with the enhanced Democratic campaign that will be mounted in Florida, the likelihood of Florida going Democratic, along with at least one of the above seven states is, seemingly, not all that difficult.

Also, Florida could end up trending “Blue” on Election Night, throwing the plot of Trump to declare victory that evening out of possibility.

It would be fitting and ironic that the state that Donald Trump has now made his official residence could put the nail in the coffin of Donald Trump staying on as President!

Joe Biden Should Seek To Win Strongly “Red” States, To Promote Democratic Strength, And Humiliate Donald Trump!

There is a growing feeling of a Democratic “Tsunami” on the way on November 3, 2020, when the Presidential and Congressional Elections take place across the nation.

Indications are that Joe Biden is working hardest on convincing voters to support him in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the three “swing” states that Hillary Clinton lost by small margins.

If those three states switched from Donald Trump to Joe Biden, then the former Vice President would win the Electoral College.

But since there is no guarantee, it is important for Biden to work hard to win Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona as well, to allow for any slippage in the three states lost by Clinton by small numbers. So a lot of effort is going into winning those three states listed, as Biden is now comfortably ahead in all three, along with the other three.

If Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, as well as Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona it will be a massive victory, which is almost certain to insure that the Senate would go Democratic by more than the three minimum victories needed. And the House of Representatives would add to the Democratic margin gained in the midterm elections of 2018.

But the argument is why not also go for states that seem long shots–Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa, all of which would make Joe Biden a landslide winner by far?

And even further, why not try to win Kansas and Montana?

So if things go well, the Democrats could have the most massive victory for the Presidency since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and could be a sign of a Democratic majority that would be long lasting!

The total humiliation of Donald Trump would be a wonderful event to witness!

Donald Trump A Combination Of George Wallace, Joseph McCarthy, John C. Calhoun: The Most Demagogic Figures In American Political History!

Donald Trump can be seen as a combination of three demagogues we have witnessed in American history.

He is George Wallace (1919-1998), the Alabama Governor, who ran for President in 1968, and gained five states and 46 electoral votes, preaching racism and white supremacy. Fortunately, he was a third party candidate, and not a serious possibility to win the White House.

He is Joseph McCarthy (1908-1957), the Wisconsin Republican Senator, who promoted the Red Scare in the early 1950s, and had Roy Cohn as his chief aide. In later years, Roy Cohn was a friend and had an impact on young Donald Trump, and Trump now has a young aide, Stephen Miller, who is as nasty and mean spirited as Cohn was. Until McCarthy destroyed himself at the Army-McCarthy hearings in 1954, many saw him as a potential threat for the future, possibly even running for President.

He is also John C. Calhoun (1782-1850), the South Carolina Senator in the 19th century, who promoted secession, states rights, slavery, and white supremacy. As Vice President for nearly eight years under John Quincy Adams and Andrew Jackson, he was a heartbeat away from the Presidency. Although Calhoun died in 1850, many would later say that he helped to bring on the Civil War that began a decade after his death.

Momentous Anniversaries: Holocaust Remembrance Day And Earth Day!

Yesterday, April 21, was the 71st anniversary of Holocaust Remembrance Day (Yom HaShoah), first declared in 1949, but a commemoration of the massive loss of Jewish life in the Nazi Holocaust before and during World War II.

And today, April 22, is the 50th Anniversary of Earth Day, first declared by Wisconsin Democratic Senator Gaylord Nelson, but affirmed by President Richard Nixon in 1970.

Both commemorations are crucial, to prevent future horrific events as the former, and come to grips with the reality of climate change and global warming as the latter, particularly now with the record that we have had the hottest months in recorded time of the entire planet in the last decade.

Many think the CoronaVirus Pandemic is a warning sign of the future, and of the need for radical action, which has been prevented by the Republican Party, Donald Trump, and climate change deniers, the same people who do not accept the Darwin evolution doctrine.

Ironically, there is the Darwin award, which is daily being demonstrated, regarding the cluelessness and stupidity of some Americans, many of whom doubt that the Holocaust occurred, as with the doubt that the planet is in a danger zone from use of oil and coal as major energy sources.

Vote By Mail Should Be Alternative, And Should Be Offered Everywhere This November For All Elections

With the nation in the midst of the CoronaVirus Pandemic, it is essential that all states offer Vote by Mail as an alternative, making it mandatory for all elections!

As it is, about 25 percent of voters vote by mail, including this blogger and author.

People who are older; those who are disabled; those who are in hospitals, nursing homes, and other public institutions; and others who find it inconvenient to stand in lines at polls on Election Day already vote by mail.

If Donald Trump had his way, no one would vote by mail, as he knows that is the only way that a majority of people, not electoral votes, would vote for the Republican party. They make it their mission to make voting harder, and to work to undermine the right to vote for minority groups, and make voter suppression their major effort in office!

Standing online yesterday in Wisconsin, forced on voters by the Republican Party of Wisconsin and the US Supreme Court majority of conservative Republicans, was a total outrage and disgrace!

The right to vote is sacred, and no one needs to prove his residence, as long as he or she has registered to vote with proper identification. Once that has been established, we should follow Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah and Hawaii, all enlightened states, that have all of their elections by mail already!

Sixteen other states also have vote by mail allowed, including my state of Florida, but also California and Arizona as major centers of population. allow it.

It is time for such states as New York, Massachusetts, Virginia, Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, and particularly Southern states, to spread democracy to all citizens!

Tonight’s South Carolina Democratic Presidential Debate A Turning Point

It is clear that Tuesday night’s CBS South Carolina Democratic Presidential debate is a turning point, as Senator Bernie Sanders will have the tremendous advantage if he wins the South Carolina Primary this Saturday.

Sanders is self destructing, however, with his inability to stop praising Cuba under Fidel Castro, and the Chinese government of President Xi Jinping, ignoring their violations of human rights, while improving education and health care.

Sanders seems totally deaf to warnings that he must repudiate his past extreme leftist views on Nicaragua and the Soviet Union in the 1980s, as that is a guarantee to cause the loss of Florida at the least, and likely cause the industrial Midwest and the Southwest to run away from his candidacy, if he is the Democratic nominee for President.

How Sanders could win states that Hillary Clinton lost by small margins, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, is impossible to conceive.

Also, any hope of winning Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, and come within striking distance of Texas, would be totally gone with a Sanders Presidential candidacy.

And Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada could be in danger, as well as New Hampshire and Virginia, all won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

And this is without addressing the “democratic Socialism” label that Sanders embraces, and his unwillingness to fully explain how all of his ambitious programs, which sound great on paper, could possibly be achieved through Congressional action.

The importance of the federal judiciary and the Supreme Court is at stake, and the nation cannot afford more right wing judges and Justices if Donald Trump is reelected.

Hopefully, we will see moderates unite around one candidate to oppose Sanders after Super Tuesday next week, with the best bet now seeming to be Pete Buttigieg, unless Joe Biden has a major rehabilitation by voters in South Carolina and the 14 states of Super Tuesday.

New Hampshire Primary: Moderates Dominate, And Joe Biden And Elizabeth Warren In Free Fall

The New Hampshire Primary results are in, and the winners are Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, who together won 44 percent of the vote, compared to Bernie Sanders winning 25.7 percent, only about 3,700 votes ahead of Buttigieg, who had 24.4 percent of the vote on his own.

Even if you add Elizabeth Warren’s poor showing, 9.2 percent of the vote to Sanders’ total, the moderates clearly won, even not including Joe Biden’s embarrassing 5th place finish, with 8.4 percent of the vote.

It is clear that both Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren are in free fall, and if they do not do well in Nevada and South Carolina, and on Super Tuesday on March 3, they are done as candidates, and it is likely down to Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and the likelihood that Michael Bloomberg may do well on Super Tuesday, after spending about $300 million on advertising so far.

Tom Steyer, Deval Patrick, and Tulsi Gabbard remain technically in the race, which is down to just nine candidates, after Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet withdrew last night.

No one thought that Buttigieg and Klobuchar would get this far as survivors, and the sense is that one or the other, or both as a team, might very well be the Democratic ticket for 2020, two Midwestern candidates, who could, in theory, accomplish what Hillary Clinton could not do in 2016, win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and potentially, even Ohio and Iowa, enough to win the White House!

The Caucus-Primary System In The Future Needs To Be Reformed

The Caucus-Primary system for Presidential elections needs to be reformed, as it is clear that having Iowa and New Hampshire go first, with both being totally lacking in diversity, is not a system for the long term.

The argument could be that California and Texas should go first, as they are very diverse and together have about 20 percent of the national population.

Add states such as Wisconsin and Virginia, and that would be a good start toward a system that would be much more amenable to the promotion of racial and ethnic diversity in a nation that will be majority non white in a generation. Therefore, it would be more reflective of reality, and allow minority candidates a better chance to survival in the process.

It is sad that Kamala Harris, Julian Castro, and Cory Booker have been forced out of the Presidential race for the Democrats, due to lack of financial support. Hopefully, the future can be different.