Presidential Election Of 1860

Republican Party In Death Throes, Will NOT Recover, And New Conservative Party Needed!

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The Republican Party has existed since March 1854, when the first meeting of those opposed to slavery and its expansion met in Ripon, Wisconsin.

The party came to national power with the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860.

It has had its ups and downs, but gave us outstanding Presidents, including Theodore Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, and George H. W. Bush.

It has had its failed Presidents too, including the mediocre ones in the Gilded Age and the 1920s, and a flawed President, Richard Nixon, who, however, actually had some great accomplishments while sadly engaged in scandal that brought his downfall.

But never has the party been as corrupted and unethical as it has become under Donald Trump, with the vast majority of Republican officeholders and candidates for this upcoming Midterm Elections of 2022 chaining themselves to this Fascist authoritarian figure in a cult like atmosphere!

American democracy is endangered, as well as the rule of law, and those Republicans and conservatives who have been loyal to the long held conservative principles of the party must organize and strike out against the Republican traitors and seditionists and terrorists, and form a new conservative party as the alternative in a democratic system to the Democratic Party!

The Donald Trump Mafia And “Religious” Type Cult Controls The Remnants Of The Republican Party!

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It is time to recognize that Donald Trump is like a Mafia Chieftan, a gang leader, a cult leader, with many so called “religious” people, both right wing evangelical Christians and Orthodox Jews, following his lead, and believing he is the savior of their America!

The Presidential Election of 2020 was the only time when America did not experience a peaceful transfer of power, as even after Lincoln was elected in 1860, his inauguration went forward without direct threat, although there was a “Baltimore Plot” that was prevented from success and open bloodshed!

Their America is one of racism, sexism, nativism, misogyny, Islamophobia, and even antisemitism, as well as worshipper of guns, and homophobic!

Donald Trump is clearly still a threat to national security and to American democracy, and it is essential to ban him from being able to run again for President, utilizing Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, as this author and blogger wrote about on this blog a few days ago.

But also, the conspirators of January 6, 2021 must be prevented from holding public office, as they are the true scum which has no regard for human life and safety!

Even when one of the worst conspirators of all, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, has a relapse and admits the terrorist attack, along comes the evil Tucker Carlson of Fox News Channel, who intimidates him back into obedience to the cult!

The Republican Party is a very sick party, and a threat to the future of American democracy, and must be overcome on all levels, a battle for the ages to redeem what Abraham Lincoln spoke for during the Civil War!

Donald Trump Obsesses On An Election He Lost, And Endangers America On COVID 19 And National Security

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Donald Trump is wasting his last two plus months in office obsessing on an election he lost, undermining faith in American democracy at a time of America being endangered by the COVID 19 Pandemic, which he refuses to relate to, or care about the massive loss of life, now 250,000 men, women, and children after only 8 months.

Trump is also a danger to national security, with his reckless plan to attack Iran, and withdraw troops precipitously from Iraq and Afghanistan, undermining the fight against terrorism worldwide, and angering even many Republicans.

It has made this transition the most dangerous and tense since 1932-1933 (Franklin D. Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover), and 1860-1861 (Abraham Lincoln and James Buchanan).

Joe Biden faces a series of crises even greater than Barack Obama faced after his election in 2008.

The American Character And Reputation Is At Stake On Tuesday: Can We Come Out Of The Darkness?

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With 48 hours to the election, the American character and reputation is at stake on Tuesday, Election Day.

Can America come out of the darkness of the last four years, and restore respect for the Constitution and rule of law, and gain the respect again of the international community?

Will morality and ethics and common decency return, or will America go into the darkness of Fascism, as occurred in Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany?

Will civil rights, civil liberties, women’s rights, gay rights, immigrant rights, labor rights, consumer rights, environmental protections, and restoration of international respect for America be resumed?

Or will we go further into the darkness where Donald Trump will be uncontrollable, and the possibility of mass murder of opponents occur, with the backing of the extreme right wing groups, including the evangelicals and various militia groups, who will want war on open mindedness and tolerance and common decency?

As stated at earlier times, this is the most important election in our lifetimes, or at least since 1940, and could be as significant as 1860 and the Civil War!

America Is In The Most Dangerous Constitutional Crisis In All Of Its History, More Than 1860 Or 1932!

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Shocking but true, America has just entered into its most dangerous constitutional crisis in all of its history, more than 1860 or 1932.

The Civil War has always been regarded as the most difficult moment constitutionally, as the Civil War was on the horizon, but Abraham Lincoln won the election, and was inaugurated peacefully on March 4, 1861.

The Great Depression was at its worse at the time of the election in 1932, but Franklin D. Roosevelt won the election, and was inaugurated peacefully on March 4, 1933.

Both Lincoln and FDR faced assassination threats, but both survived and became our greatest Presidents.

Other times, we have had contested or close elections, as in 1800, 1824, 1876, 1880, 1916, 1960, 2000, and 2016, but always there was a peaceful transition of government from one President to another, without rancor.

But now, yesterday, President Donald Trump indicated that he would not guarantee a peaceful transition of power, that the mail ballots should be thrown out, and his administration continue in office beyond January 20, 2021, and that an extra Supreme Court Justice might be enough to rule in Trump’s favor. Also, there are plans behind the scenes to have Presidential electors in many swing states be convinced to support Trump in the Electoral College, even if Trump is seen as losing the popular vote in many states.

This is alarming, and presages a constitutional crisis that would be worse than 1860 or 1932, and a move by Trump to destroy the Constitution and rule of law, and the establishment of an authoritarian Fascist oriented dictatorship!

It means we have a tense 40 days until the election, and a potentially tense 78 days to Inauguration Day, whereby Trump could declare martial law, or we could have both Trump and Biden coming to Inauguration Day as the perceived winner by their own camps, and how that would be handled.

Our system of government has always been based on the loser accepting defeat, not being a sore loser, and not threatening to provoke violence by his supporters, but Trump is already doing this at his no mask, no social distancing, rallies, an alarming development.

This is a moment of reckoning for all elected Republicans, that while they want to compete to win power, that they have to respect the Constitution and rule of law, and NOT support a renegade President, if the election results are clearly in favor of Joe Biden, as is expected.

We have to hope that Biden wins by a massive margin, as otherwise, we are in uncharted territory, and even if it is a massive victory, Trump might claim it is a stolen election, and throw it to the courts, and a newly appointed Associate Justice could be the decisive factor in deciding whether we retain our democracy.

The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, ironically, could be a major turning point in American history in a negative fashion way beyond the passing of this great woman!

We cannot allow that to occur!

From Election To Inauguration: Four Worrisome Times, And Now Again In 2020

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In American history, we have witnessed four times when the period from the election to the inauguration has been a worrisome time.

The first time was 1860-1861, when Abraham Lincoln was facing the secession of the South, and likely civil war, and even the danger of assassination threats before he took office.

The second time was 1876-1877, when the popular vote went to Samuel J. Tilden, but the electoral vote went to Rutherford B. Hayes, decided by a special Electoral Commission, which resulted in the closest electoral vote imaginable, a one vote margin of electors.

The third time was 1932-1933, when Franklin D. Roosevelt faced a recalcitrant Herbert Hoover, who refused to cooperate with the President-Elect as the Great Depression worsened.

The fourth time was 2000-2001, when the electoral vote was decided by the Supreme Court, awarding Florida to George W. Bush over Al Gore, by the second closest electoral vote, only five electoral vote margin.

And now, in 2020, we have to fear that Donald Trump will refuse to concede the election, and will fight it in every possible way, if the electoral vote is contested. And even if it is an easy victory for Joe Biden, Trump might create a constitutional crisis, and attempt to declare martial law and suspend the Constitution. He also might attempt to start a war with China or Iran, in the midst of the CoronaVirus Pandemic.

So we have a lot to worry about as we move toward the Presidential Election of 2020!

Donald Trump Botched His Last Attempt To Show Concern For The American People, In His Atrocious Reaction To Covid-19 Pandemic!

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Donald Trump, the extreme narcissist, and mentally very unstable, and more dangerous every day for the nation, botched his last attempt to show concern and empathy for the American people, by his atrocious reaction to the CoronaVirus Pandemic!

Any chance he had to redeem himself to the American people and his historic reputation is lost, as he has refused to promote contact tracing or testing, and is very willing to accept mass loss of life without any guilt or conscience!

All that matters to Donald Trump is to be reelected, with the thought that if somehow, through foreign collusion, voter suppression, or gerrymandering combination, he is reelected, the nightmare we are living through will become much worse!

This is not just about massive loss of life, but also the abuse of power by a reenergized President who will go further in destroying the Constitution and Bill of Rights, setting up a Fascist dictatorship that his Republican Party will abide by. This will be instead of promoting the principles enunciated by Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, and other historic Republicans of principle and common decency over the 166 years of the party’s history!

Once we lose our basic civil liberties and civil rights, how can we ever regain them? How can we protect the vulnerable among us, including the disabled, the elderly, the young, and racial and ethnic minorities, which will suffer more than the general population?

That is why, as stated in my History News Network article of April 29, the Election of 2020 is the most significant one since 1940, in that our whole way of life is in danger, as it was in the four previous elections discussed in the article—1860, 1864, 1932, and 1940!

Six Months To The Presidential Election Of 2020: A First Assessment

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With six months and three days until the Presidential Election of 2020, it is time to make a first assessment of the upcoming election.

This author has just published an article on History News Network under my blog “Ronald L Feinman” stating that this upcoming election is the most important since 1940, and one of the five most significant elections in American history, along with 1860, 1864, 1932, and 1940.

Donald Trump is reported going totally off the rails on this, the 75th anniversary of the suicide of Adolf Hitler, and it gets one to think about what may yet happen, as Trump is falling behind Joe Biden in every imaginable poll nationally, and in the “swing” states, including the crucial state of Florida with its 29 electoral votes.

If Trump loses Florida, where many senior citizens retire and are dying in the midst of this CoronaVirus Pandemic, there is no practical way for him to win reelection.

With the pandemic which he is refusing to deal with rationally, only thinking about his election, and willing to endanger any crowd that might gather in Arizona or Ohio in coming weeks, and also wanting children back in school even if it undermines and threatens the lives of their parents and grandparents, Trump is clearly on the road to a massive defeat in November!

So, subject to change, here is my assessment of the upcoming election:

Joe Biden will win the 20 states that Hillary Clinton won:

All 6 New England states and add the second district of Maine, which went to Trump in 2016–33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic States of New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia, plus Virginia–72 electoral votes

Midwest States of Illinois and Minnesota–30 electoral votes

Mountain States of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada–20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast States of California, Oregon, Washington State, and Hawaii–78 electoral votes

So the “base”, adding the second district of Maine to the total, is 233 electoral votes of 270 needed.

Adding to that are the crucial states that Hillary Clinton lost in the Midwest—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (really considered more Northeast but also considered in western section as Midwest)—46

That brings the electoral vote total to 279, enough to win the Presidency for Joe Biden.

However, the trend is strongly in favor of other states turning “Blue”, with the Second Great Depression upon us, along with the CoronaVirus Pandemic, and the reality that Trump policies have alienated many groups:

Senior Citizens

Suburban Women

College Educated

Lower and Middle Income Voters

Racial Minorities (African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans)

Jews, Social Justice Catholics, Mainline Protestants

Young People Under 35

Independents

Moderate Republicans

Conservative Intellectuals

Of course, one is not saying that all of these groups will vote “Blue”, but it seems highly likely enough will vote that way and cause a smashing defeat for Donald Trump!

So what other states seem likely to go Democratic, in some cases, by small margins?

In order as follows:

Arizona–11 electoral votes

North Carolina–15 electoral votes

Florida–29 electoral votes

Nebraska–2nd Congressional District–1 electoral vote

Ohio–18 electoral votes

Georgia–16 electoral votes

Iowa–6 electoral votes

Montana–3 electoral votes

Kansas–6 electoral votes

Texas–38 electoral votes

So my estimate at this time, six months before the election, is a maximum of 32 states and DC for Biden and 18 for Trump, and 422 electoral votes to 116 for Trump.

The 116 electoral votes for Trump in 18 states would be:

West Virginia 5

Kentucky 8

South Carolina 9

Alabama 9

Mississippi 6

Louisiana 8

Arkansas 6

Tennessee 11

Missouri 10

Indiana 11

North Dakota 3

South Dakota 3

Nebraska 4 (not including 2nd District)

Oklahoma 7

Utah 6

Wyoming 3

Idaho 4

Alaska 3

But actually, Missouri (10) and Indiana (11) could, by earlier history, surprise, and also vote against Trump and support Biden by small margins, meaning there could be 34 states and a grand total of 443 to 95 in the Electoral College for the Democrats!

Remember that Indiana voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and Missouri was always with the winner since 1900, except in 1956, 2008 (both by small margins of about 4,000 votes) and 2012 when the margin was larger for the defeated candidate, Mitt Romney!

So the exact parameters of the Donald Trump defeat are not final, but this would seem to be the maximum, as another nearly 4 million Americans today filed for unemployment, a total of about 30 million, one out of five workers in the nation, approximately, which would mean a 20 percent unemployment rate, and growing.

If it goes over 25 percent in coming weeks, it will be worse than even the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the American people soundly defeated Herbert Hoover in 1932, and elected Franklin D. Roosevelt!

And realize that the average family size can be considered probably a family of four although there are many households of fewer than four, but if one considers that as a statistic, that means one out of three people directly are affected by unemployment, an astounding 33-35 percent rate, unimaginable and horrific!

The next President will have a challenge on the level of FDR and Abraham Lincoln!


Six And A Half Months To Most Crucial Presidential Election Since 1940

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We are facing this November the fifth most crucial Presidential election in American history.

Every Presidential election matters, of course, and in the midst of each campaign, there are those who will think it is the most important event ever to occur.

But in reality, the number of times that an election has been truly “crucial” is limited to what this author and blogger believes are only a few times.

Those few elections that have been crucial to the extreme would include, chronologically the following:

Election of 1860, a four way race, with the Civil War seen as on the horizon, and Abraham Lincoln winning with only 39.8 percent of the vote, over Stephen Douglas, John C. Breckinridge, and John Bell.

Election of 1864, in which Lincoln defeated former General George McClellan, at a crucial time in the Civil War.

Election of 1932, in which the nation was at its lowest economic point in history, with the failure of Herbert Hoover, and the alternative of Franklin D. Roosevelt and his New Deal.

Election of 1940, when America faced the danger of Fascism in the world, but isolationism reigned, and Franklin D. Roosevelt faced a businessman with no government experience, Wendell Willkie, as the world was engaged in World War II.

Now, in 2020, we face a CoronaVirus Pandemic; a collapsed economy worse than any time since the Great Depression; and a crazed, dangerous President who should have been removed from office for abuse of power, and instead is, effectively, taking the nation over the brink of the cliff that it is facing at this time!

So just as Abraham Lincoln and Franklin D. Roosevelt came to the rescue, each of them twice, now Joe Biden and his female running mate face the challenge of the greatest crisis in 80 years, and we have to hope he can gather the strength, courage, and decisiveness of Lincoln, FDR, and other great Presidents, including Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama in difficult moments in their Presidencies!

The Ugly Specter Of Anti Semitism, Anti Socialism, Homophobia, And Misogyny Alive In 2020 Presidential Campaign

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The Presidential Campaign of 2020 is in full swing, and due to Donald Trump willing to do anything to undermine his potential opponents, the ugly specter of Anti Semitism, Anti Socialism, Homophobia, and Misogyny are alive, and will be part of the discussion for the next nine months.

The fact that Michael Bloomberg and Bernie Sanders are Jewish, and that Sanders is a self professed “Socialist”, which is NOT Communism in any sense, will be part of the upcoming political debate.

The fact that Pete Buttigieg is gay and has a husband is certainly to be part of the political debate, with hatred and prejudice existing among right wing evangelical Christians, conservative Catholics, and Orthodox Jews.

The fact that Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar are serious Presidential contenders will stir the misogynists who think women should only be in the kitchen and the bedroom, and not running for President or Vice President.

It is certain that the Presidential Election of 2020 will match others as the “dirtiest” campaign, including the Presidential Elections of 1828, 1860, 1896, 1912, 1928, 1948, 1968, and 2016!