Nevada

Arizona And Georgia Key States Now, NOT Florida And Texas!

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As a result of the Midterm Elections of 2022, after the Presidential Election of 2020, it is clear that Arizona and Georgia are the key states for the Democrats, although they do not make up for the Republican dominance of Florida and Texas!

But with Pennsylvania and Michigan also becoming more likely Democratic based on recent elections, and adding the Northeast and Pacific Coast, the Midwest states of Illinois and Minnesota, and a few Mountain states, such as Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, the prognosis for the Democrats in 2024 and beyond, is looking good, in regards to the Electoral College!

Changing The Primary System For The Presidency Makes Total Sense!

Ronald 2 Comments

After years of the Presidential primary system every four years being controlled by Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, the Democratic Party and President Joe Biden are promoting a massive change to reflect reality about states and influence.

The plan proposed by Joe Biden would put South Carolina first, followed by a joint date for Nevada and New Hampshire, and then Georgia and Michigan, with Iowa left out of the equation with its outdated caucus system.

Of course, Iowa is upset, and New Hampshire is also unhappy, as they wish to go first, and might still arrange for a primary, due to state law, a week before the beginning of the primary season, but that could lead to refusal to seat delegates chosen in an unauthorized earlier primary.

No plan will please everyone, but this sounds like an excellent reorganization, although Republicans may not follow the same plan.

Potential For Democrats To Gain Multiple Senate Seats In Midterm Elections Of 2022

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The potential now exists for the Democrats to gain multiple Senate seats in the Midterm Elections of 2022!

With six Republicans Senators retiring, at least three of those seats could go to the Democrats, along with three Republican Senators running for reelection having troubles in their reelection campaigns.

Pennsylvania with John Fetterman; Ohio with Tim Ryan; and North Carolina with Cheri Beasley, all have a good shot to win what have been Republican seats.

Additionally, Florida with Val Demings and Wisconsin with Mandela Barnes could see the defeat of Marco Rubio and Ron Johnson. And the longest serving Republican Senator, Chuck Grassley, running at age 89 for another six year term, also has a tough race from retired Admiral Michael Franken that should not be ignored.

Four Democratic Senators have major challenges to keep their seats—Mark Kelly in Arizona; Raphael Warnock in Georgia; Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada; and Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire.

Also, Mike Lee in Utah has a strong independent, Evan McMullin, trying to defeat this loyal Trumpite, and Democrats are backing him.

Rand Paul in Kentucky has a strong African American opponent in Democrat Charles Booker, and the defeat of Paul would be welcome, but unexpected.

In Missouri, Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine will try to stop Republican Eric Schmitt, another tough race without an incumbent, but Schmitt favored to win.

The possibility of up to a 4-5 seat gain for Democrats is in the cards, if the present trend in polls continues!

Automatic Mail Ballots Should Be Sent By All States To All Voters As A National Law To Insure Voting Rights!

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Nine states and Washington, DC send automatic mail ballots to all eligible voters who reside in their states.

These states include:

California
Colorado
Hawaii
Nevada
New Jersey
Oregon
Utah
Vermont
Washington State
Washington, DC

There is no viable reason why voters have to show up in person to vote, as long as they are registered and live in the state they reside in.

Such a system of mail in voting boosts voting, particularly of poor people, racial minorities, the disabled, members of the military, and the elderly.

Voting rights were guaranteed over time, and then added to by the Voting Rights Act of 1965, along with Constitutional amendments 15, 19, 23, 24, and 26, and so therefore, there should be ZERO boundaries for voting!

If we are to remain a democracy, this needs to become a national law that goes into effect by the Presidential Election of 2024, if not earlier with the Midterm Congressional Elections of 2022!

A Hellish 24 Hours Of Stress And Lack Of Sleep, As The Nation Waits For The Result Of The Election

Ronald 18 Comments

This blogger and author has gone through what many of his readers and others have felt: a hellish 24 hours of stress and lack of sleep as the nation waits for the results of the Presidential Election of 2020.

Five states–Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina–remain, as I write, unsettled as to the winner.

But at this moment before 5 AM, and having failed to post an article as usual on November 5 due to the turmoil, I am happy to report that Joe Biden is ahead in all the remaining states, except Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and is on the path to being declared President Elect!

Joe Biden On Road To Presidency, But Without Democratic Senate, A Major Handicap For Success!

Ronald 26 Comments

Joe Biden is on his way to the Presidency, but sadly, he will not have a Democratic Senate, as the situation now stands.

So this is a major handicap for success of a Biden Presidency.

Mitch McConnell won reelection, and seems almost certain to remain Senate Majority Leader, unless both Georgia seats up for election, not likely to be decided until January, go to the Democrats, which seems highly unlikely! Also still up in the air is Alaska and North Carolina, but it does not look good for the Democrats at this writing, and Michigan Democrat Gary Peters is losing his race at the moment.

Donald Trump will mount legal challenges, but it seems certain that Joe Biden will become the 46th President of the United States, although not under the hoped for landslide that did not develop, as Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas went to the Republicans, leaving Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina still in play in the Electoral College, along with Nevada still not final for Biden at this point. But happily, Arizona and Wisconsin switched from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020!

Biden could gain 270 electoral votes in the next day or two, if and when Nevada, Michigan and Georgia put him over the top! And Pennsylvania and North Carolina are still possible!

Democrats Gaining In Southeast And Southwest, Likely Transforming American Politics In The 2020s

Ronald 2 Comments

Indications are that Democrats are starting to gain support in both the Southeast (North Carolina, Georgia) and the Southwest (Arizona), and are running even in Florida and Texas, and keeping their lead in Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

If this trend continues, the Midwest Rust Belt states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania), while still important, will be less significant in future Presidential elections.

And it looks as if many of the Senate seats that are being decided this November will end up with a Democratic Senator–as in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico.

The electoral map in future elections will be vastly different than it has been in previous election rounds.

Ohio, The Buckeye State, May Again Be Instructive On Presidential Election

Ronald 7 Comments

Ohio, the Buckeye State, may again be instructive on the Presidential Election of 2020, as it has been 45 out of 54 times in the past, and only twice on the losing side since 1900–1944 and 1960!

No Republican President has won the White House without winning Ohio.

Ohio is 34th largest of the 50 states in land area; 10th most densely populated; and seventh most populous; and it has been losing electoral votes steadily over the decades, as the Sun Belt states have grown larger in population.

But it still matters greatly, and recent polls indicate Joe Biden taking a lead in Ohio over Donald Trump.

As I wrote on this blog on September 15, 2018, Ohio historically has been the most predictable state in the Electoral College results, followed by Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico.

If Donald Trump cannot win Ohio, there is no path for him to win the Presidency for a second term in 2020. The public opinion polls as I write, indicate troubles for Trump also in Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, so the Midwest heartland is not for him, as things stand now.

Cuban Americans Are Distinctly Republican, But Competition For The Vote Of Other Latinos Is Strongly Democratic

Ronald 1 Comment

It is well known that the majority of Cuban Americans have been conservative and supporters of the Republican Party, since the first migration of Cubans to South Florida in 1959, and particularly after the failed Bay of Pigs fiasco under President John F. Kennedy in 1961.

And yet, younger Cubans are much more Democratic, as this scholar and professor discovered in his classes over the years.

Still, the effect of Fidel Castro and his brother Raul Castro permeate the strong anti Communism of Cuban Americans in Florida, New Jersey, New York and California, major centers of Cuban Americans. But Cubans are only about 4 percent of all Latino Americans.

Other Latino Americans still tend to be strongly Democratic, so it is expected Joe Biden will win the vast majority of Mexican Americans, Puerto Ricans, and other Latino groups from Latin America, with the one exception of Venezuelans.

Florida will be more complex because of the strength of the Cuban vote in South Florida, but the growing Puerto Rican presence, especially in central Florida in the last few years, makes it a real competition for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Elsewhere, the Mexican American vote, and population (which is two thirds of all Latinos in America), makes it likely that Arizona may turn “Blue” and that Texas will be much more competitive than ever in the past thirty years. And Georgia and North Carolina also will be tight races due to Latinos.

Already, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado are strongly Democratic.

So the battle for the Latino vote is very much to be noticed in this upcoming Presidential election, and in Senate and House races.

Reality: If Biden Wins Florida, He Only Needs To Win One More Trump State Of 2016!

Ronald 10 Comments

The odds of Donald Trump being able to pull out a win in November is very poor, particularly if Florida, third in electoral votes with 29, goes to Joe Biden.

The Democratic states of 2016 all seem solid for Joe Biden, although the Republicans are trying to win New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada and New Mexico, but the odds are very long against that occurring.

With Florida being won by Biden, all that the Democratic Presidential nominee needs to hit the 270 mark is win one of the following:

Pennsylvania 20 electoral votes

Michigan 16 electoral votes

Wisconsin 10 electoral votes

North Carolina 15 electoral votes

Arizona 11 electoral votes

Ohio 18 electoral votes

Georgia 16 electoral votes

Right now, in public opinion polls, Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in all but the last two states, and one must remember that in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Trump only won by a combination of 78,000 votes combined in 2016!

Florida is prime territory for Democrats, with the growing Puerto Rican population, enhanced by the hurricane which hit that island in 2017, and by senior citizens notably turning against Donald Trump in the midst of the CoronaVirus Pandemic. Since Trump did not win by very much in Florida in 2016, and with the enhanced Democratic campaign that will be mounted in Florida, the likelihood of Florida going Democratic, along with at least one of the above seven states is, seemingly, not all that difficult.

Also, Florida could end up trending “Blue” on Election Night, throwing the plot of Trump to declare victory that evening out of possibility.

It would be fitting and ironic that the state that Donald Trump has now made his official residence could put the nail in the coffin of Donald Trump staying on as President!