Herbert Hoover

Pandemic Now Affecting Sun Belt “Red” States, Not “Blue” States, And Yet Trump Ignores It And Refuses To Wear Face Mask As Example To Americans!

The COVID-19 Pandemic is raging in the Sun Belt, more furious than ever, the so called “Red” states, including Florida, Texas, and Arizona, while before it was more manifested in the Northeast and the Pacific Coast, so called “Blue” states.

But Donald Trump is ignoring the pandemic, which has killed 125,000 Americans in four months, more than World War I, or more than Vietnam and Korea combined!

He continues to refuse to set an example of the importance of wearing a face mask, and has, in a grievous manner, held political rallies in Oklahoma, Arizona and Wisconsin, and intends to do more such rallies, and is exposing thousands to the potential of spreading the virus.

This includes dozens of Secret Service agents, which demonstrates his lack of respect even for those who protect him!

Donald Trump is a total failure in this crisis, and will go down as responding worse than even Herbert Hoover in the Great Depression or James Buchanan in the pre Civil War years!

Donald Trump Has No Concern About The Economic Devastation He Has Wrought

Donald Trump is the most indecent and unconcerned President we have ever witnessed!

With 93 thousand people dead, and 36 million economically devastated by the CoronaVirus Pandemic, he has absolutely no concern about the economic devastation he has wrought, with his refusal to take any action to help those horribly damaged by the collapsed economy!

Not even everyone has gained or will gain the $1200 relief checks, as if that is enough to recover from their loss of businesses and jobs.

He and his Cabinet have no intention of doing more, while the Democrats have plans that are being rejected by Republican Senators, led by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

So the condition economically and health wise will continue to be worse for the next eight months until Inauguration Day, and when Joe Biden takes the oath of office, he will have the worst situation since Franklin D. Roosevelt almost 90 years ago.

And if, the horrible thought, somehow Donald Trump wins again, then the Great Depression we are in, will become worse and undermine our national security and economic welfare, almost as if Donald Trump is doing the bidding of America’s enemies, particularly Russia, China, and Iran.

It is impossible to imagine that America will give us another term of Donald Trump, similar to if they had given us another term of Herbert Hoover, who despite his major shortcomings, is still far superior to Donald Trump!

From Election To Inauguration: Four Worrisome Times, And Now Again In 2020

In American history, we have witnessed four times when the period from the election to the inauguration has been a worrisome time.

The first time was 1860-1861, when Abraham Lincoln was facing the secession of the South, and likely civil war, and even the danger of assassination threats before he took office.

The second time was 1876-1877, when the popular vote went to Samuel J. Tilden, but the electoral vote went to Rutherford B. Hayes, decided by a special Electoral Commission, which resulted in the closest electoral vote imaginable, a one vote margin of electors.

The third time was 1932-1933, when Franklin D. Roosevelt faced a recalcitrant Herbert Hoover, who refused to cooperate with the President-Elect as the Great Depression worsened.

The fourth time was 2000-2001, when the electoral vote was decided by the Supreme Court, awarding Florida to George W. Bush over Al Gore, by the second closest electoral vote, only five electoral vote margin.

And now, in 2020, we have to fear that Donald Trump will refuse to concede the election, and will fight it in every possible way, if the electoral vote is contested. And even if it is an easy victory for Joe Biden, Trump might create a constitutional crisis, and attempt to declare martial law and suspend the Constitution. He also might attempt to start a war with China or Iran, in the midst of the CoronaVirus Pandemic.

So we have a lot to worry about as we move toward the Presidential Election of 2020!

America With 23.4 Percent Effective Unemployment Rate, Likely To Reach Or Surpass All Time High Of Early 1933 By End Of May!

The official unemployment rate reported this week is 14.3 percent, but that is not reality!

It does not not include the last two weeks of unemployment applications, as a result of the CoronaVirus Pandemic.

There are now, officially, 36.5 million unemployed people, and with a working population of about 156 million people, that means, using basic math, that the actual unemployment rate in mid May is 23.4 percent, just a point and a half lower than the all time high of 24.9 percent in February 1933, the worst moments of the Great Depression before Herbert Hoover handed over power to Franklin D. Roosevelt!

it is clear that as soon as another 2.5 million Americans file for unemployment this week or next, the unemployment rate will be at 25 percent or more, an all time high in American history!

Donald Trump More Desperate By The Day, As Every Poll Shows Him Losing Massively!

Public Opinion Polls have been amazingly consistent in 2020, with even Fox News Channel Polls showing Donald Trump losing badly.

His horrific reaction to the CoronaVirus Pandemic is sealing his fate, if there was ever any doubt.

It is not that Joe Biden is a perfect candidate, but he is the alternative, and his empathy, compassion, authenticity and decency shine through, and always has.

Donald Trump is the new Herbert Hoover, without his intelligence, ability, and life accomplishments.

But the Pandemic and the highest unemployment rate since Hoover left office 87 years ago insure a major repudiation of the 45th President!

Six Months To The Presidential Election Of 2020: A First Assessment

With six months and three days until the Presidential Election of 2020, it is time to make a first assessment of the upcoming election.

This author has just published an article on History News Network under my blog “Ronald L Feinman” stating that this upcoming election is the most important since 1940, and one of the five most significant elections in American history, along with 1860, 1864, 1932, and 1940.

Donald Trump is reported going totally off the rails on this, the 75th anniversary of the suicide of Adolf Hitler, and it gets one to think about what may yet happen, as Trump is falling behind Joe Biden in every imaginable poll nationally, and in the “swing” states, including the crucial state of Florida with its 29 electoral votes.

If Trump loses Florida, where many senior citizens retire and are dying in the midst of this CoronaVirus Pandemic, there is no practical way for him to win reelection.

With the pandemic which he is refusing to deal with rationally, only thinking about his election, and willing to endanger any crowd that might gather in Arizona or Ohio in coming weeks, and also wanting children back in school even if it undermines and threatens the lives of their parents and grandparents, Trump is clearly on the road to a massive defeat in November!

So, subject to change, here is my assessment of the upcoming election:

Joe Biden will win the 20 states that Hillary Clinton won:

All 6 New England states and add the second district of Maine, which went to Trump in 2016–33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic States of New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia, plus Virginia–72 electoral votes

Midwest States of Illinois and Minnesota–30 electoral votes

Mountain States of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada–20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast States of California, Oregon, Washington State, and Hawaii–78 electoral votes

So the “base”, adding the second district of Maine to the total, is 233 electoral votes of 270 needed.

Adding to that are the crucial states that Hillary Clinton lost in the Midwest—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (really considered more Northeast but also considered in western section as Midwest)—46

That brings the electoral vote total to 279, enough to win the Presidency for Joe Biden.

However, the trend is strongly in favor of other states turning “Blue”, with the Second Great Depression upon us, along with the CoronaVirus Pandemic, and the reality that Trump policies have alienated many groups:

Senior Citizens

Suburban Women

College Educated

Lower and Middle Income Voters

Racial Minorities (African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans)

Jews, Social Justice Catholics, Mainline Protestants

Young People Under 35

Independents

Moderate Republicans

Conservative Intellectuals

Of course, one is not saying that all of these groups will vote “Blue”, but it seems highly likely enough will vote that way and cause a smashing defeat for Donald Trump!

So what other states seem likely to go Democratic, in some cases, by small margins?

In order as follows:

Arizona–11 electoral votes

North Carolina–15 electoral votes

Florida–29 electoral votes

Nebraska–2nd Congressional District–1 electoral vote

Ohio–18 electoral votes

Georgia–16 electoral votes

Iowa–6 electoral votes

Montana–3 electoral votes

Kansas–6 electoral votes

Texas–38 electoral votes

So my estimate at this time, six months before the election, is a maximum of 32 states and DC for Biden and 18 for Trump, and 422 electoral votes to 116 for Trump.

The 116 electoral votes for Trump in 18 states would be:

West Virginia 5

Kentucky 8

South Carolina 9

Alabama 9

Mississippi 6

Louisiana 8

Arkansas 6

Tennessee 11

Missouri 10

Indiana 11

North Dakota 3

South Dakota 3

Nebraska 4 (not including 2nd District)

Oklahoma 7

Utah 6

Wyoming 3

Idaho 4

Alaska 3

But actually, Missouri (10) and Indiana (11) could, by earlier history, surprise, and also vote against Trump and support Biden by small margins, meaning there could be 34 states and a grand total of 443 to 95 in the Electoral College for the Democrats!

Remember that Indiana voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and Missouri was always with the winner since 1900, except in 1956, 2008 (both by small margins of about 4,000 votes) and 2012 when the margin was larger for the defeated candidate, Mitt Romney!

So the exact parameters of the Donald Trump defeat are not final, but this would seem to be the maximum, as another nearly 4 million Americans today filed for unemployment, a total of about 30 million, one out of five workers in the nation, approximately, which would mean a 20 percent unemployment rate, and growing.

If it goes over 25 percent in coming weeks, it will be worse than even the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the American people soundly defeated Herbert Hoover in 1932, and elected Franklin D. Roosevelt!

And realize that the average family size can be considered probably a family of four although there are many households of fewer than four, but if one considers that as a statistic, that means one out of three people directly are affected by unemployment, an astounding 33-35 percent rate, unimaginable and horrific!

The next President will have a challenge on the level of FDR and Abraham Lincoln!


Six And A Half Months To Most Crucial Presidential Election Since 1940

We are facing this November the fifth most crucial Presidential election in American history.

Every Presidential election matters, of course, and in the midst of each campaign, there are those who will think it is the most important event ever to occur.

But in reality, the number of times that an election has been truly “crucial” is limited to what this author and blogger believes are only a few times.

Those few elections that have been crucial to the extreme would include, chronologically the following:

Election of 1860, a four way race, with the Civil War seen as on the horizon, and Abraham Lincoln winning with only 39.8 percent of the vote, over Stephen Douglas, John C. Breckinridge, and John Bell.

Election of 1864, in which Lincoln defeated former General George McClellan, at a crucial time in the Civil War.

Election of 1932, in which the nation was at its lowest economic point in history, with the failure of Herbert Hoover, and the alternative of Franklin D. Roosevelt and his New Deal.

Election of 1940, when America faced the danger of Fascism in the world, but isolationism reigned, and Franklin D. Roosevelt faced a businessman with no government experience, Wendell Willkie, as the world was engaged in World War II.

Now, in 2020, we face a CoronaVirus Pandemic; a collapsed economy worse than any time since the Great Depression; and a crazed, dangerous President who should have been removed from office for abuse of power, and instead is, effectively, taking the nation over the brink of the cliff that it is facing at this time!

So just as Abraham Lincoln and Franklin D. Roosevelt came to the rescue, each of them twice, now Joe Biden and his female running mate face the challenge of the greatest crisis in 80 years, and we have to hope he can gather the strength, courage, and decisiveness of Lincoln, FDR, and other great Presidents, including Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama in difficult moments in their Presidencies!

75th Anniversary Of Death Of FDR: A President We Need Desperately Now In 2020 And Into 2021!

Today is the 75th Anniversary of the death of the greatest 20th Century President, Franklin D. Roosevelt!

Other than Abraham Lincoln, no President matches the significance and impact of FDR!

Of course, there are naysayers, and as a scholar and author of a book on the New Deal, and having taught about FDR and the New Deal for decades, it is clear that there were faults and shortcomings in the FDR record in both domestic and foreign policy!

But the reality is that FDR came to office at the worst time since the Civil War, and while the Great Depression did not end until World War II, millions were helped by FDR New Deal policies, and he saved the nation from total collapse, as was happening under his predecessor, Herbert Hoover.

A person such as FDR is needed now, at a time when the situation is the worst for America since the Great Depression and World War II!

The question is can Joe Biden be the savior for the next four years, since he will be 78 two weeks after the Presidential Election of 2020.

Many will see Joe Biden as having possible signs of dementia, but this blogger and author has observed and listened to him, and while he has his “moments” of sounding a bit silly or clueless, can anyone really say that Donald Trump sounds less silly or clueless?

In fact, Trump daily seems much more dangerous, as his personality and viewpoints on all issues domestic and foreign, is horrific!

And if one looks back at Lincoln and FDR, Lincoln had definite issues with depression and circulatory issues with his health, and FDR had polio and bouts with poor health in his last few years. And yet, they both led brilliantly under the strains of their times!

Biden has elements of decency, compassion, sincerity, humanity, empathy, and a genuinely kind personality, and he has always been this way. Joe is loved by many because he is real, not a phony. That does not mean everything he has ever said or done is perfect, far from it!

But elections are choices, and Joe is far superior to Donald Trump in personality, but also in experience, knowledge, work ethic, and willingness be considerate in what he utters and actions he takes!

And let’s face it, either Biden or Trump could become incapacitated or die during the next term, as it has been a long time, nearly six decades since a President died, and five decades since a President left office during a term. This is longer than at any time in American history since 1841 to 1974, when we had a total of eight Presidential deaths and one Presidential resignation, so in a sense, we are overdue.

So the key issue is not whether either Biden nor Trump make it to the end of the term, but rather does one prefer a woman VP or Mike Pence to be the 47th President of the United States, which may be the end result sometime during the term!

Any sane, decent person would say the former would be preferable!

Crisis Management: Trump Far Worse Than James Buchanan And Herbert Hoover! Time For Mike Pence To Step In!

Donald Trump will go down as the absolutely worst Crisis Manager in American Presidential history!

Before now, it would be a tie between James Buchanan at the time of the pending Civil War in 1860 and Herbert Hoover at the time of the highest unemployment in the Great Depression in 1932!

But even they were not as undignified and self serving as Donald Trump, who is still more obsessed with his self image, and fails to show any concern about the massive loss of life which is coming to America from the CoronaVirus Pandemic, far more than any other nation, but no real concerted action occurring!

By all rights, Donald Trump has again failed in leadership for the umpteenth time, and should resign and let Vice President Mike Pence take over as the 46th President!

Never has a new President succeeded so late in the term, as Lyndon B. Johnson succeeded near the end of the third year, upon John F. Kennedy’s assassination in November 1963, three weeks less than a year to the election.

But Pence would have the opportunity, if he chose to be a true leader, to change policy, and possibly save the Republican Party, although it is hard to imagine that he could win a full term.

Instead, at this point with seven months to the election, and about nine and a half months to the inauguration, he could gain a reputation as having worked to save the nation, as much as possible, while unable to have his own term.

One has to believe that in his heart of hearts, Mike Pence knows that Trump is a disaster, and should resign!

It is time for Mike Pence to think of the nation, not himself, and pressure Trump to leave, or utilize the 25th Amendment, pushing the cabinet majority to back him, in a last ditch effort to save the nation from the worst that is coming!

Economic Downturns And American Presidential Elections In History

With the sudden, rapid decline in the economy, caused by the CoronaVirus Pandemic, the odds of Donald Trump winning reelection in November 2020 has dramatically declined!

Economic Downturns ALWAYS lead to defeat of Presidents running for reelection, as witness the following examples:

Martin Van Buren–Panic of 1837, loses in 1840.

James Buchanan–Panic of 1857–chose not to run for reelection, but Republican party opposition won in 1860 with Abraham Lincoln.

Ulysses S. Grant–Panic of 1873, Republican successor to Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes, lost by massive margin of 250,000 votes in 1876 election, but won a disputed Electoral College vote over Democrat Samuel Tilden.

Benjamin Harrison–Panic of 1893 (evident in late 1892), loses in 1892.

Herbert Hoover–Great Depression (1929 and after), loses in 1932.

Jimmy Carter–Recession of 1980, loses in 1980.

George H W Bush–Recession of 1992, loses in 1992.

John McCain–Great Recession 2008-2009, successor Republican candidate for George W. Bush, loses in 2008.