Ohio

Prediction That Four States Will Decide Presidential Election—Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida–Is That Legitimate?

Ronald 4 Comments

Many political observers are saying that four states are the true battleground that will decide who is inaugurated President on January 20, 2017.

Those states are Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida.

The question is whether that belief is legitimate.

This blogger thinks it is much more complicated than those four states, and that two of them–Pennsylvania and Florida—are assured for the Democrats as it is.

Yes, it is true that Pennsylvania west of Philadelphia and east of Pittsburgh is often called “Alabama”, but Pennsylvania has been reliably “Blue” or Democratic for six straight elections from 1992 onward, and that is not likely to change. If “Alabama” really mattered as much as some think, then how did our African American President win the state both in 2008 and 2012? If anything, with the economy far better now than it was in 2008 and 2012, and with Barack Obama’s public opinion rating now at 58 percent, the highest since his first year in office (2009), Pennsylvania is assured to go “Blue” again. Remember, all that is needed is to win the most popular votes to win the electoral votes, not necessary to win a majority, but just a plurality.

Florida, despite being Republican in state elections, went for Barack Obama twice, and now there are many more Puerto Rican citizens who have moved from the island to central Florida in particular, due to the tough economic times in Puerto Rico. Puerto Ricans are citizens who just need to re-register at their new address, and the vast majority of them are Democrats, and therefore now lessen the Cuban influence on the state vote. And many younger Cubans are not automatically conservative or Republican as their elders are. With the I-4 corridor (Central Florida) becoming more likely Democratic, add much of South Florida to the equation (Broward and Palm Beach Counties), and the influence of North Florida and Miami-Dade County (where many immigrants turned citizens from Brazil, the Dominican Republic, and other nations in Latin America have migrated and not generally Republicans) are therefore outweighed, and with the better public opinion ratings of Obama added to the mix, the odds are that Florida will go “Blue” again.

Ohio is more difficult, and history tells us that every elected Republican President has won Ohio, so this is truly the crucial state but with Hillary Clinton having the edge in most polls. And one must remember Hillary has a built in edge in “Blue” States, and does not have to win Ohio, while Donald Trump must win it or have no chance to win the White House.

North Carolina went for Obama in 2008 but went “Red” for Mitt Romney in 2012, but polls now indicate that Hillary is favored, but again is not essential for Hillary to win the Presidency.

I would say beyond these four states, there are the states of Georgia and Arizona and Utah, all “Red” states, that indicate close races, with the possibility that they could go “Blue” for this election, and possibly beyond, particularly true for Georgia and Arizona, due to the increase in Hispanic and Latino population and voters.

So Hillary Clinton still has an overwhelming advantage, with eight weeks out from Election Day, to win the Presidency.

Odds Are Heavy That Democrats Will Regain Senate Majority In November: Crucial For Future Of Supreme Court

Ronald 10 Comments

With Hillary Clinton running strongly, it seems likely that the Democrats will regain control of the US Senate in this fall’s elections.

The Republicans must defend 24 seats to the Democrats total of 10 seats.

They seem certain to win New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin at the least, and only have one seat in Nevada in danger of being lost to the Republicans.

The Democrats have a good chance also in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri and Arizona.

Of course they will not win all of these seats, but if they gain five and do not lose Nevada, they have 51 members of their caucus, and if they win 4, with Tim Kaine as Vice President, they will gain the majority.

However, having more members is crucial to help promote the future of the Supreme Court, which is likely to have several new members over the next few years.

Right now, many Republicans are running ahead of Donald Trump, so it may be that the Democrats will have trouble gaining more than a minimum majority, but the situation is very fluid, and no clear cut prediction as to the makeup of the Senate next year is possible yet, with 75 days to go until the election.

Ohio, The Crucial State For Republicans, Lost With John Kasich Refusal To Attend Convention, And Trump Rebuke Of NAACP Meeting!

Ronald 2 Comments

Ohio is the most crucial state for any Republican Presidential candidate, and Donald Trump will NOT win the White House as a result.

Every single Republican elected President from Abraham Lincoln to George W. Bush, bar none, has won Ohio.

But with Ohio Governor John Kasich refusing to endorse Trump or attend the convention in his own home state, along with Trump refusing to attend the Ohio convention of the NAACP in Cincinnati tomorrow, when he most certainly could do so, guarantees Ohio will NOT be voting for Trump.

Trump’s insensitivity to African Americans says legions, and Kasich, meanwhile, IS speaking at the convention.

Kasich has his faults, but it is still clear that he would have been the best potential GOP nominee, and would have given Democrat Hillary Clinton a run for her money!

Hillary Clinton-Elizabeth Warren Chemistry Absolutely Magnetic!

Ronald 14 Comments

Yesterday’s political event of Hillary Clinton and Senator Elizabeth Warren at a campaign rally in Cincinnati, Ohio, a true “Swing State” and city, was one of the most exciting and magnetic political events in many years!

Warren was dynamic and sensational, and made one think that the nation might be ready for two women on the national ticket, a revolutionary development.

Imagine if, let’s say, Donald Trump selects New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to be his Vice Presidential running mate, what the Presidential and Vice Presidential debates would be like this fall!

Two dynamic, brilliant, intelligent women vs two narcissistic, egotistical bullies!

One is tempted to say: “Bring it on!”

Middle Class “Rust Belt” Voters (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin) Favor Hillary Clinton Over Donald Trump

Ronald 1 Comment

Many Republicans seem to think that middle class “Rust Belt” voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin will abandon their strong support for Democrats in Presidential elections and vote for Donald Trump in 2016.

That is totally delusional, as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have been strongly “Blue” for the past six Presidential elections, and will not change this November.

Ohio is a different story, as it is the ultimate “Swing” state, and that is why Sherrod Brown, Ohio Democratic Senator, might be selected as Hillary Clinton’s Vice Presidential running mate.

If Donald Trump was able to convince Ohio Governor John Kasich or Ohio Senator Rob Portman, to be his running mate for Vice President, the odds of the Republicans winning Ohio would be vastly improved, but there seems to be zero chance of either Ohio Republican office holder taking up such an offer.

Polls so far make it clear that Hillary Clinton is strongly favored to carry all four “Rust Belt” states.

British Betting Odds On Democratic Vice Presidential Nominees

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If one goes by British betting odds, the list of potential Democratic Vice Presidential nominees is as follows:

In front is Julian Castro, former San Antonio Mayor, who is presently Secretary of Housing and Urban Development; followed by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren; Virginia Senator Tim Kaine; Secretary of Labor Tom Perez (from Maryland); and former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley (who was in the Democratic Presidential race).

After those five, the odds on others, in their order, are New Jersey Senator Cory Booker; Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown; and then Minnesota Senators Al Franken and Amy Klobuchar.

Looking at the list, the “safest” choices to make are Castro, Perez, O’Malley, Franken, and Klobuchar, as the first two are cabinet members and not potentially giving up a Senate seat; O’Malley is out of office; and Franken and Klobucar come from a solidly “blue” state that has a Democratic Governor able to appoint a Democratic replacement were either to be elected Vice President.

Warren and Booker come from states with Republican Governors, who would be able to appoint a Republican temporarily as their replacement, while Kaine and Brown comes from “swing states” with a Republican governor in Ohio, and a Democratic Governor in Virginia now under federal investigation in a state which would be Republican if not for northern Virginia’s strong Democratic bent.

The Growing Significance Of Minnesota In The Vice Presidential Sweepstakes For The Democrats!

Ronald 1 Comment

Minnesota is a strongly Democratic state, with a Democratic Governor, Mark Dayton, who has been very successful in promoting economic growth in the state.

It also has two Democratic Senators, Al Franken and Amy Klobuchar, both supremely qualified to be Vice President.

It was also the state of Vice President and Presidential nominee Hubert Humphrey in 1968, and Vice President and Presidential nominee Walter Mondale in 1984.

It was also the state of Senator Eugene McCarthy and Senator Paul Wellstone.

Hillary Clinton has to consider both Franken and Klobuchar, as it is assured that either one in the Vice Presidency would be replaced by a Democrat, not assured in other states, including New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia.

Franken would be a great “attack dog” against Republican Donald Trump, and would be the first Jewish Vice President if Hillary Clinton won the White House.

Klobuchar would be the first woman Vice President, and far superior to Geraldine Ferraro and Sarah Palin in qualifications and experience.

Either Franken or Klobuchar would be a worthy successor to Joe Biden to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency!

Potential White Male Vice Presidential Nominees For Hillary Clinton’s Presidential Campaign In 2016

Ronald Leave a comment

If Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton decides not to go “radical” and select a woman or a person of minority heritage as her Vice Presidential choice for the upcoming Presidential Election of 2016, she has a long list of potential white males to choose from.

She could go for a Senator from a “swing” state, including the following:

Virginia–Senator Mark Warner or Senator Tim Kaine

Ohio–Senator Sherrod Brown (who I projected on December 31 as the likely choice)

Florida–Senator Bill Nelson

But there are other potential nominees, including:

Incumbent Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, which I recommended on this blog in February 2015, and was interviewed about it by John Hockenberry of THE TAKEAWAY on National Public Radio on January 21 of this year, which can be found under “Interviews” on the right side of the blog

Senator Al Franken of Minnesota

Former Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut

Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon

Of these nine potential candidates, the most likely would seem to be Brown, Kaine, and Franken in that order.

Biden and Nelson will both be 74 this year, five years older than Hillary Clinton, while O’Malley opposed Hillary in the early primaries and Merkley is the only US Senator to have endorsed Bernie Sanders, making them less likely.

Warner seems less likely than Kaine from Virginia, due to his close race for reelection in 2014, one he almost lost, and Murphy, one of the brightest young liberals, is more of a “dark horse”, not mentioned by many, but a possible surprise choice.

Republican Scenario: A President Who Alienates His Own Party, If Trump Or Cruz Were To Occupy The White House!

Ronald 8 Comments

It seems clear that the Republican Party is in the throes of dying as a major political party, as so many Republicans, both office holders and ordinary voters, cannot imagine either Donald Trump or Texas Senator Ted Cruz as their party’s nominee.

Only Ohio Governor John Kasich is left from the mainstream element of the party, but he cannot win the nomination on the first ballot, and has to hope for a contested convention, which does seem more likely as time passes.

Kasich has the best chance, in public opinion polls, to defeat either Hillary Clinton or Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, while both Trump and Cruz lose in competition against both Democrats.

And there is the issue how Republicans would work with either Trump or Cruz as President, as most Congressional Republicans are turned off by both of them.

We could, in theory, have a Republican Party, or a shell of a party, in warfare against their own President, an event which would be unique in American history!

The Deep Coma Of The Republican Party, With Only Slight Chance Of Recovery With John Kasich, Unlikely To Occur, So Death Is Near!

Ronald 9 Comments

This morning, we can look at the results of the five Presidential primaries on the “ides of March”, and say that the Republican Party is in a deep coma, with only a slight chance of recovery with John Kasich, who won his home state Ohio primary.

But the chance of Kasich overcoming Donald Trump and or Ted Cruz is miniscule, as it would require a second or more ballots at a contested convention in Cleveland this July, highly unlikely to occur.

So death is near for the Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, and Ronald Reagan!

And the conservative movement is also on life support, as far as having control or potential for national power!

It is now time to have a new moderate, mainstream conservative party to emerge, something on the line of the Whig Party of Henry Clay, Daniel Webster, John Quincy Adams, and Abraham Lincoln!