North Carolina

Washington Post 95% In Belief Republicans Will Win Senate In November: Totally A Delusion!

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It is amazing that the Washington Post is predicting by a percentage of 95 percent that the Republicans will win the six seats needed to control the US Senate in 2015-2016.

Even if they do, which is highly unlikely, with two thirds of the seats in 2016 having incumbent Republicans, it is certain that the Democrats, if they lose control will regain it with a major margin in 2016!

But to believe that the Republicans will gain six seats is belied by the likely defeat of Pat Roberts in Kansas and Mike Rounds in South Dakota, both which no one had thought possible to go to the Democrats.

And those who think Mary Landrieu is not going to win her seat in Louisiana forget her ability to survive, as the only sane major figure in a state which includes Bobby Jindal and David Vitter, both disgraces in every possible manner!

And Mitch McConnell in Kentucky is not going to win his seat this time around against Allison Lundergan Grimes, and Georgia will go Democratic as well with Michelle Nunn, which means even if the Republicans win six seats, they will lose three in those those two states and Kansas, and will not win one of the so called three “guaranteed” states of South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia!

North Carolina with Kay Hagan seems safe, while admittedly, Arkansas, with Mark Pryor, is in more danger.

Expect overall a three seat Senate gain for the Republicans, with the Senate going from 55-45 to 52-48, including a likely four independents, from Maine, Vermont, South Dakota (or Democrat Rick Weiland winning instead of Independent Larry Pressler), and Kansas!

The Democrats’ Secret Weapon: Young And Single Women, And Excellent Women Candidates!

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The Democratic Party has a secret weapon: Young and Single Women, and Excellent Senate candidates and Gubernatorial candidates!

Polls show that young and single women in many states are clearly angered by Republicans working to take away their rights, and will come out in large numbers to back Democrats in the midterm elections.

The margin of support for Democrats in many state polls is as high as thirty percent in some, and polls clearly indicate widespread support among young and single women in such states as North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Colorado, and Kentucky, among others!

Why not? Republicans want to take away the right of abortion; the right to use contraceptives; the right of a woman to equal pay; the right of women to have more unemployment compensation; the right of women to have an increase in the minimum wage; the right of women to know that politicians do not blame them for campus rapes and military rapes; the right of women to have more available and quality child care; the right of women to expect decent health care from government, or their corporations, such as Walmart; the right of women not be insulted about their weight and figure; and the right of women to reject women Republican candidates who do not care about anyone but their own futures, and sell out to male chauvinists in the Republican Party.

So therefore, Michele Nunn of Georgia; Allison Lundergan Grimes of Kentucky; Mary Landrieu of Louisiana; Kay Hagan of North Carolina; Shanna Bellows of Maine; Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire; and Natalie Tennant of West Virginia (all Senators or running for the Senate); and Wendy Davis of Texas and Mary Burke of Wisconsin (running for Governor) stand out, as does Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire; and many are likely to win their races, and make 2014, the Year of the Democratic Woman, a lot due to young and single women voting in droves!

Meanwhile, Republican women running are sounding like they are from outer space, including Senate candidates Joni Ernst of Iowa; Terri Lynn Land of Michigan; Monica Wehby of Oregon; and Shelly Moore Capito of West Virginia; and women Governors Mary Fallin of Oklahoma; Susana Martinez of New Mexico; and Nikki Haley of South Carolina.

The Democratic Women In Senate Races

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The role of women in the Democratic Party Senate races is becoming much more significant, and at this time, there is a good chance that many will be successful, including the incumbent women and the challenger women.

In the first category, we have Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Senator Kay Hagan of North Carolina, and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire.

In the second category, we have Senate candidates Natalie Tennant in West Virginia, Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky, Michelle Nunn of Georgia, and Amanda Curtis of Montana.

At this point, two months before the election, the odds are good for Landrieu, Hagan, Shaheen, Grimes and Nunn, with Tennant and Curtis more likely to fail to be elected to replace retiring Jay Rockefeller and Max Baucus.

With 16 women Democratic Senators, it is likely that we will see  a few more in 2015!

Republican Weakness In Defeating Democratic Incumbents In Senate Races A Long Term Trend!

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In all of the discussion of US Senate races in the upcoming Midterm Elections of 2014, many fail to realize the historical record of the failure of Republicans to have much success in defeating Democratic incumbents over a long period of time, while Democrats have been much more successful in that regard.

From 1946 to 2012, only TWICE have Republicans been able to defeat a large number of Democratic incumbents–1946 (10) and 1980 (12).

Since 1982, the number of Democratic incumbents defeated in each two year cycle has never been more than two, and six times there have been NO Democratic incumbents defeated.

Meanwhile, Democrats have defeated Republican incumbents in large numbers many times—8 in 1948; 10 in 1958; 7 in 1986; 5 in 2000; and 6 in 2006.

So to assume that a large number of Democratic incumbents, including Mary Landrieu of Louisiana; Kay Hagan of North Carolina; Mark Begich of Alaska; Mark Pryor of Arkansas; Mark Udall of Colorado; Al Franken of Minnesota; Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire; Tom Udall of New Mexico; and Mark Warner of Virginia will be defeated, defies history!

Since World War II, the reelection rate for US Senators is 80 percent.

And since 1980, Democrats have defeated 38 Republican incumbents, to just 12 for Republicans defeating Democratic incumbents!

Imagine A Presidential Election Battle Without Any Previous Candidates In The Race!

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The thought has crossed this blogger’s mind what it would be like if for once, just once, no one who had previously competed for the Presidential nomination of either party, nor had been a Vice Presidential running mate, became involved in the upcoming Presidential Election campaign of 2016.

Think of who would be eliminated from consideration:

Democrats (8)–Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Jerry Brown, John Kerry, Howard Dean, Bill Richardson, Dennis Kucinich

Republicans (11)–Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, John Kasich

Who would be left to compete?

Democrats (13)–Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kirsten Gillibrand, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O’Malley, Mark Warner, Corey Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Jay Nixon, John Hickenlooper, Brian Schweitzer, Deval Patrick, Rahm Emanuel

Republicans (13)–Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Peter King, Mike Pence, Rob Portman, Scott Walker, Brian Sandoval, Susana Martinez, Nikki Haley

One can wonder who would be competitive for the Presidential nominations, and who would galvanize support among the population and go on to be the nominees of the two major political parties!

We would have a true “donnybrook” situation, with anyone having the potential to be the nominees, “catch fire”, and go on to be the 45th President of the United States!

If this author was to venture an educated guess, one would come to the following conclusions:

Democrats–The major battle would be among Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley and Mark Warner.

Republicans–The major battle would be among Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Mike Pence and Rob Portman.

The final battle would be between Warren and O’Malley for the Democratic nomination, and between Marco Rubio and Mike Pence for the Republican nomination.

The two finalists would be Martin O’Malley and Marco Rubio, with O’Malley being the winner and the 45th President of the United States!

This is due to the reality of the Electoral College, which strongly favors the Democrats to win the White House in 2016 and beyond, as the Northeast, New England, Upper Midwest, and Pacific Coast are strongly “Blue”, and most of the “swing states” are favored to go “Blue” as well, including Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, and Iowa.

Florida and North Carolina would be more difficult for the Democrats, particularly if Rubio is the GOP nominee, but the electoral vote would still be heavily Democratic, even without those two states!

Voter “Fraud”, Voter Suppression, Civil Rights, And The 26th Amendment!

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We hear Republicans claim “voter fraud”, which is a total fraud in itself, as the amount of voter fraud has been shown to be something like one billion of one percent!

There is no voter fraud to speak of, and if we are going to talk about voter fraud, what about the fraud in the vote count in Florida in the Presidential Election of 2000, which benefited George W. Bush over Al Gore; and the reported voter fraud in Ohio in the Presidential Election Of 2004, which again benefited George W. Bush, this time over John Kerry?

It is a fact that only in states that are seen as in danger of turning “blue”, do we see accusations of voter fraud, to insure that a “red” state will stay “red”! So we have seen the Southern states and some Midwestern states, which have passed voter suppression laws, affecting African Americans, Latinos, poor people, the elderly, and now, even the young.

So the classic case, but not the only one, is North Carolina, which now had cut down the number of voting days before Election Day; has stopped same day registration; has decided that early voting on the Sunday before the election shall be ended (what often is the method for black churchgoers to make voting a group event); has required a state ID to vote, something many poor people cannot afford, and often have trouble getting to proper locations if they wish to buy it in person (a requirement); and now is preventing 16 and 17 year old high school students from preregistration; and not allowing college students from other states to use their college address so that they can vote in the state elections of the college or university they are attending and residing in for four or more years!

So we have a law suit against North Carolina, asserting that they are discouraging college and young voters from registering and voting, therefore trying to fix the elections, true voter fraud! And the constitutional case is the 26th Amendment of 1971, which allows 18-21 years old citizens to vote!

This is the new attempt at what used to be called “Jim Crow” laws, and the Republican Party is fully backing such denials in multiple states, right after the Supreme Court, wrongfully, weakened the Voting Rights Act of 1965, forgetting the struggles, bloodshed, and deaths suffered in the battle for voting rights. The ultimate civil right is voting rights!

What is clear is that when the states lose these battles, particularly regarding the 26th Amendment, they are guaranteeing the loss of the young vote for generations, as any intelligent young person voting for the party which worked to suppress its voting rights is as likely as “Hell Freezing Over!”

Barack Obama Totally Correct: GOP Will NEVER Win Presidency Again Unless They Return To Political Center!

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President Barack Obama has made a statement that cannot be contradicted!

IF the Republican Party moves away, at some point, from the extremist right wing of the Tea Party Movement, and the influence of the old Southern Democratic racists turned Republicans because of the Civil Rights Act of fifty years ago, then they have the opportunity, and even likelihood, of eventually regaining the White House!

But if they insist on alienating women, African Americans, Latino and Asian American citizens and immigrants, labor, gays and lesbians, environmentalists, those who believe in science over religion, poor people, the middle class, educated people, and those who believe government is good rather than evil, then they will, Obama says, NEVER win the Presidency again.

The nation is turning “Blue” over time in Texas, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, and already much of the Midwest has become more definitely “Blue”, as well as Florida and Virginia.

So, as Obama states, it is all up to the Republican Party! Moderate your right wing extremism, or your party is in the dustbin of history, as America is not a mean spirited, racist, nativist nation, just many of those who choose to call themselves Republicans.

Barack Obama Becomes Fourth Sitting President To Visit Indian Reservation!

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President Barack Obama yesterday became the fourth sitting President to visit an Indian reservation, an acknowledgement of his respect and concern for the plight of native Americans, who remain the most oppressed minority group in America.

Earlier Presidents to visit Indian reservations while in office were Calvin Coolidge, who visited the Pine Ridge reservation in South Dakota in 1927; Franklin D. Roosevelt, who visited the Cherokee nation in North Carolina in 1936; and Bill Clinton, who visited the Pine Ridge reservation in South Dakota in 1999.

Obama visited the Standing Rock Sioux Indian reservation in North Dakota. Obama has taken more action on Native American issues than any President, including:

Hosting a Tribal Nations Conference annually at the White House

Used Executive Orders on American Indian and Native Alaskan Education improvements

Launched a campaign against childhood obesity on Indian reservations

Signed the Tribal Law and Order Act to give more law enforcement authority to tribal law enforcement authorities

Reauthorized the Violence Against Women Act to allow prosecution of non native Americans who assault native American women on the reservations

Promoted disaster assistance by direct application of native American tribes

Allowed health care coverage under ObamaCare to the tribal reservations

Obama has shown an in depth awareness of the issues facing native Americans, and a willingness to do more than make a speech!

The tribe that Obama is visiting, sadly, has 79 percent unemployment, and a myriad of economic, social, and educational issues, including high child mortality, suicide, and dropout rates.

So much more needs to be done for native Americans, and at least, a good start has been made by Barack Obama!

The Twelve Most Right Wing Extremist States In 2014

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It is scary to observe just how far Right Wing Extremist some of the 50 states have gone. Following is a list of the twelve most right wing extremist states in 2014. There is no special order of these states.

Texas
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Louisiana
Kansas
Oklahoma
Idaho
Utah
Wyoming

All of these states are governed by right wing Republican, Tea Party supported Governors and legislatures.

Seven of them are Southern States of the Old Confederacy.

Nine of them, including Kansas and Oklahoma, had legal segregation until outlawed by the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

Idaho, Utah and Wyoming are heavily influenced by the right wing extremism of the Mormon Church.

Only Texas and North Carolina are heavily populated states, and the only ones that are becoming more significant, due to the reality that both are bound to be “Blue” in the coming years.

Other than Texas, North Carolina, and to some extent, South Carolina, the other nine states are having no major impact on the future evolution of the nation!

The education level in all twelve states is among the lowest in the nation, and poverty is high, and not just among African Americans and Hispanics-Latinos, but also among poor whites.

These states, if they continue their right wing tilt, are doomed to remain the “backwaters” of America long term!

The Republican Party 2014–Anti Immigrant, Anti Women, Anti Gay, Anti Labor, Anti Science

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The Republican Party of 2014 has put itself into a box it cannot get out of, and it is doomed to lose the nation short term and long term, as a result!

Yes, the Republicans can win gerrymandered Congressional districts in the “hinterland” of the nation, but they cannot win the African American vote, the Hispanic-Latino vote, the women’s vote, the gay and lesbian vote, the labor vote, or the science and environmental vote!

Without those, they cannot EVER become a serious threat to the Democrats for the White House or the US Senate long term, even if somehow they are able to gain six Senate seats and the majority in the Midterm Elections of 2014!

In 2016, with two thirds of the Senate seats being Republican seats, and with Tea Party activists leaving behind a record of total rejection of government, and total lack of concern for their fellow citizens, the Senate will have a major Democratic majority, and the House has a good chance of being take back by the Democrats!

And with the states of Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina turning “Purple” toward “Blue”, with growing numbers of Hispanics and Latinos, and also the growing Asian vote there and elsewhere; and with Florida and Virginia also more “Blue” than ever in Presidential races, the Republican Party will be “toast” as a serious political opposition!

There would have to be a major realignment of the GOP for this pessimistic assessment of its future to change, but the spokesmen for the party, and the candidates jockeying for position for 2016, shows otherwise.

The Republican Party is deaf, dumb, and blind at their own self destruction, and their reward will be total repudiation by all but the ignorant and biased of the “hinterland”, who want an America which is no longer there, the America of the 1950s, when we favored the traditional immigrant groups from Northern and Western Europe; when women “knew their place” as housewives and mothers, and not workers and educated; when those who were gay or lesbian “stayed in the closet”: when the labor movement offered tons of blue collar jobs that no longer exist, due to the greed and selfishness of American corporations looking for “cheap” labor overseas; and when we abused the environment, and yet woke up to the importance of science after the Soviet orbiting of the first space satellite, Sputnik I!

Those days are gone forever, but the GOP is like an ostrich with its “head in the sand”, denying reality, and for that, they are, and will be, punished and repudiated!