Nevada

Two Different Directions: Wisconsin State Republican Party And Nevada State Republican Party

Ronald 6 Comments

The internal battle over the future of the Republican Party is in full swing, as we come up to the 160th anniversary of the Republican Party in Ripon, Wisconsin, in 1854, which actually took place on March 20. with a formal organization in Jackson, Michigan, on July 6.

For a long time, the Ripon Society has existed as an organization for “liberal,” mainstream Republicans, but of course, there is no such thing anymore known as “liberal” Republicanism. Even those who might consider themselves “liberal,” avoid use of that term like a plague!

The Wisconsin GOP, which once included “Mr. Progressive” Robert La Follette, Sr., and his brilliant sons Robert La Follette, Jr. and Philip La Follette, now, however, has become an extremist group on the far right, under Governor Scott Walker and Senator Ron Johnson, and the proposal is to add to their state party documents the concept of the right of the state to promote “secession’ if felt necessary, a sign of the old, ugly language that led to the Civil War and the loss of two thirds of a million men in combat, the greatest single tragedy in the nation’s history!

At the same time, the Nevada State Republican Party has made the decision to remove from its platform for 2014 two issues that the Christian Right has been promoting since their rise in the party apparatus nationwide since the late 1970s—abortion and gay rights and marriage. No longer will the party promote government intervention in the lives of women and their personal decisions about their bodies and reproductive rights. And no longer will they get in the way of a person’s happiness, as to his or her basic human rights, including marriage, and the right to one’s sexual orientation without any discrimination by government!

In the long run, what Nevada Republicans are doing will, if pursued elsewhere, lead to a long term revival of the GOP, while if Wisconsin is followed, it is the death knell and demise of the party of Lincoln, TR, and Ike!

The Presidential Election Of 2016–257 Democrats, 206 Republicans, Five States (75) Swing States!

Ronald 38 Comments

With Chris Christie, the New Jersey Governor, starting to lose public support due to the multiple scandals emerging in the past two weeks, the Republican Party is in crisis mode, as Christie was thought to have the best chance to defeat Hillary Clinton, or any other Democrat in the Presidential Election of 2016.

In actual fact, Christie had no real chance to win, and it was highly unlikely that he could have emerged from the primaries and caucuses as the nominee of his party, in the first place.

The facts have been there all along: the Democrats are a lock to win the Presidency in 2016 and beyond, with their support from Hispanics-Latinos, African Americans, women, labor, young people, educated people who believe in science, and those who believe in the promotion of gay rights, including marriage, whether they are gay or lesbian or straight in their sexual orientation!

The Electoral College is a “fait accompli” for the Democrats, with a guaranteed 257 electoral votes to 206 for the Republicans! Only five states are truly in play, and the Democrats won all five in 2008 and 2012, and are likely to win most, if not all of these five states, in 2016!

These states are:

Florida 29 electoral votes
Ohio 18 electoral votes
Virginia 13 electoral votes
Colorado 9 electoral vote
Nevada 6 electoral votes

This is a grand total of 75 electoral votes in dispute!

So If the Democrats win Florida, or Ohio, or Virginia, they win the Presidency!

If they win Colorado and Nevada together, with none of the other three, they win the Presidency!

To believe that the Democratic nominee will not win the small number of 13 electoral votes needed to win the required number of 270, requires one to be in hallucination!

Face the facts: The Democrats will win the White House in 2016, no matter who is their nominee, and since any likely candidate will be white, not African American as Barack Obama is, just makes the job of winning somewhat easier!

Of course, if the Democratic nominee wins all five of the above states in contention, then that person wins 332 electoral votes to 206 for the Republican nominee.

This is precisely the electoral vote in 2012!

And realize that Texas (38), Georgia (16). and North Carolina (15) all are moving toward the likelihood of Democrats winning their electoral vote by 2020, if not 2016, and North Carolina having gone for Barack Obama in 2008, if not in 2012!

So were these states to switch, not likely but possible in 2016, the electoral vote in 2016 could be as high as 401-137!

Advancements On Gay Rights, But Plenty Of Struggle Ahead

Ronald 4 Comments

The vote of the US Senate yesterday to agree to overcome a potential filibuster, and allow a final vote on ENDA (Employment Non-Discrimination Act) is a great move forward on civil rights.

The proposed law, discussed for many years, would ban employers from firing, refusing to hire, or discriminating against workers or job applicants based on their sexual orientation or gender identity.

The procedural vote was 61-30 with 54 Democrats (all but Claire McCaskill, who was not present), and 7 Republicans (Susan Collins, Kelly Ayotte, Dean Heller, Mark Kirk,. Rob Portman, Orrin Hatch, and Pat Toomey) in favor.

So the bill will pass the Senate in the next few days, but disturbing is that 30 Republicans had the nerve to vote for continued discrimination, and 8 Republicans were not recorded as voting.

It will be interesting to see if any of these 38 Republicans will vote for the final bill, particularly such Senators as John McCain and Lamar Alexander and Bob Corker and John Thune, who at times have shown some moderation as compared to most in the Senate Republican caucus.

At the same time, Illinois moved today toward final acceptance of gay marriage, making that state the 15th to have gay marriage, going into effect by the summer of 2014.

At the same time, other states seem to be moving in the same direction, including Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, although at different measurements of progress.

Regarding the ENDA legislation, IF Speaker John Boehner allowed an open vote, the legislation would become law, with most Democrats and enough Republicans to make it the law of the land , but Boehner has indicated that he will not allow a vote, which, if it is pursued all the way, would stop any chance to do what is morally right to do, stop job discrimination, So pressure must be brought to convince him to change his mind, and allow a vote even without a majority of his caucus.

A New Push For The Equal Rights Amendment: Is It Possible?

Ronald Leave a comment

In 1972, the Congress passed the proposed Equal Rights Amendment for women overwhelmingly in both houses, and Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter supported it wholeheartedly over the next decade.

At the same time, Ronald Reagan opposed it, and it finally failed of passage by a shortage of three states in 1982, only gaining 35 of the 38 states required for ratification of an amendment!

90 years ago on July 21, 1923, Alice Paul first proposed the ERA, and it is time to take action on final ratification, with Democrats needing to support the end of the time limitation on the amendment.

So far, Democratic leaders Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, and also Elizabeth Warren, have not agreed to cosponsor such a change in the amendment process, but they need to.

The question is whether three more states can be convinced to ratify the ERA, if the time limitation is eliminated, since almost all of them are Southern states.

But the hope is that Illinois, Virginia and Nevada might be the states, but no certainty of course, but there is the old saying, “Nothing ventured, nothing gained”! The fact that these three states were “Blue” in 2008 and 2012 give hope, and hope springs eternal!

Total Poverty, Deprivation, Lack Of Safety Net For Substantial Numbers Of Americans The Reality: The “American Dream” Denied!

Ronald 12 Comments

Despite the denial and lack of concern of many conservatives and Republicans about the tremendous maldistribution of wealth which has developed in the thirty two years since Ronald Reagan came to the Presidency, new statistics indicate just how desperate many Americans are, and how that desperation is particularly obvious in the South and in the Southwest parts of the United States.

Nearly half of US households, containing about 132 million Americans are in a dire situation, where they do not have any emergency funds for as little as three months, if a natural disaster, medical emergency or sudden unemployment occurred.

Think of the mental anguish these people go through if any of the above emergencies suddenly arise, with a feeling of no hope, and the possibility of homelessness, total destruction of personal credit, and the likelihood of becoming sick from stress itself!

Thirty percent of Americans do not have a savings account, and eight percent do not have any bank account at all.

In ten states, the poverty and hopelessness of a substantial part of the population is most evident, including in order:

Nevada
Georgia
Mississippi
Florida
Arkansas
North Carolina
Tennessee
New Mexico
Arizona
Louisiana

Notice also that only three states of these ten listed are “Blue” or Democratic (Nevada, Florida, New Mexico), while the other seven are “Red” or Republican.

With so many people in these states and others having little or no health insurance coverage, and low wage jobs predominating, and high credit card debt levels, one wonders how these unfortunate citizens cope with waking up daily, with such gloom and doom on the horizon! The “American Dream” is being denied!

Medicaid Expansion Under ObamaCare Only Agreed To By Two Republican Hispanic Governors: Interesting Development!

Ronald Leave a comment

Republican Governors are refusing to take up the offer of Medicaid expansion for their states under ObamaCare, despite the fact that the Obama Administration has arranged for total funding for the Medicaid expansion for those states for three full years, and 90 percent coverage of costs after that.

This is a means to insure that poor people will have medical care, and one would think that any Governor would wish to cover his or her poorer constituents, as a way to show concern about the welfare and health of the less fortunate in the states.

But NO, no way, is the reaction of all the Republican Governors who were elected in 2010, as part of the Tea Party Movement wave, with the major exception of the Governors of New Mexico (Susana Martinez) and Nevada (Brian Sandoval), both Hispanic governors of Mexican American ethnicity.

So Rick Scott of Florida, Nikki Haley of South Carolina, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Rick Perry of Texas, Paul LePage of Maine and other GOP Governors are refusing to participate, but the fact that the two Hispanic Republican Governors are doing so makes them stand out as cooperating, while the two Hispanic (Cuban American) Senators who are Republicans, Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida, are totally against involvement in ObamaCare!

Is this due to politics, that Martinez and Sandoval are trying to distinguish themselves from Cruz and Rubio for future Republican Hispanic battles for national office–that is, for the Presidency?

Who can say, but it is certainly very curious, to say the least, that this situation has arisen. But kudos to Martinez and Sandoval for doing the right thing for their poorer citizens! And the fact that they are Governors, not Senators, could be a plus for them in the future in Republican politics!

Final Projection On Presidential Race: Obama-Biden 332 Electoral Votes, Romney-Ryan 206 Electoral Votes

Ronald 6 Comments

This author has spent a lot of time and effort in studying, analyzing, evaluating the Presidential Election contest of 2012, and is now ready to project the final result.

Barack Obama has been long predicted to win at least 237 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 191 electoral votes, with nine states in play as “swing” or “battleground” states, all of which Obama won in 2008.

The prediction that the author wishes to make is that Obama will win ALL of the nine competitive states, except North Carolina, giving him 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206 electoral votes!

So Obama will win New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado, with a total of 95 electoral votes, added to the 237, making the final total of 332 electoral votes.

Romney, by winning the 15 electoral votes of North Carolina, will go from 191 to 206 in the final total of electoral votes.

It also means that Obama will have won every state he won in 2008, except Indiana and North Carolina, and a total of 26 states and the District of Columbia. Romney will win 24 states.

Also, expect that the popular vote will be close in North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Montana, with Romney winning, but with hints that Democrats will have a grand opportunity to win those states in 2016 and beyond, with the growing Hispanic-Latino vote. The first hint will be the likely victories for the Senate of Democrats Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Richard Carmona in Arizona.

Additionally, Obama should win about 52 percent of the vote to 47 percent of the vote for Romney, with Gary Johnson and other third party candidates winning slightly more than one percent of the total vote.

This means Obama will have won by a slightly smaller percentage of the popular vote and fewer electoral votes, but with the factor of reapportionment of seats due to the Census of 2010 changing downward many of the Frost Belt states which support Barack Obama, plus the loss of North Carolina and Indiana from 2008.

Still, overall, a very impressive performance can be expected!

Comments on this projection of the results are welcome!

Electoral College Majority For Obama Edges Closer By The Day

Ronald 14 Comments

The standard belief has been that Barack Obama has 237 electoral votes, and Mitt Romney has 191 electoral votes.

But now, two states have been “awarded”, meaning it is felt that each candidate has gained one of them–Nevada with six electoral votes for Obama, and North Carolina with 15 electoral votes for Romney.

So one can now say that the electoral vote total is 243 for Obama and 206 for Romney, with seven states still in play.

But, this author feels it is closer than that to 270 electoral votes for Obama.

Wisconsin seems certain for Obama, and New Hampshire also seems likely, so if they are counted, with 10 and 4 electoral votes, respectively, Obama would have 257 electoral votes, only 13 short of the 270 needed to win the Presidency!

So the remaining battlegrounds are Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado, and even Iowa with six electoral votes seems likely Obama territory, so imagine adding Iowa, and we have 263 electoral votes, seven short of the number needed!

Every indication is that, despite supposedly close polls in percentage of popular votes, the tide is clearly in Obama’s camp, and don’t be surprised if he wins ALL of the remaining states—Ohio, Colorado, Virginia and Florida, in that order of probability!

Five Republican Senate Seats In Danger Of Being Won By Democrats In 2012

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The usual political line is that the Democrats are in danger of losing control of the Senate, with 23 Democratic or Independent seats up for election in 2012, as compared to only 10 Republican seats.

But actually, five of the ten GOP Senate seats are in play, with Republicans on the defensive!

This includes:

Maine—where retiring Senator Olympia Snowe seems likely to be replaced by Independent Angus King, former Governor of the state, thought to be likely to caucus with the Democrats if he wins, based on greater agreement with Democratic principles.

Massachusetts—where Senator Scott Brown, who replaced Ted Kennedy in 2010, is behind in many polls to consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren, in a state so strongly Democratic that Brown’s victory in 2010 was seen as an outlier.

Indiana—where retiring Senator Richard Lugar may be replaced by Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly , because the GOP nominee, Richard Mourdock, has been labeled a Tea Party extremist, unwilling to work across the aisle with Democrats.

Nevada—where appointed Senator Dean Heller is having a rough race against long term Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley.

Arizona—where Senator Jon Kyl is retiring, but the Republican nominee, Jeff Flake, is facing a surprisingly tough battle against Democrat Richard Carmona. former Surgeon General of the United States. Carmona has a distinguished law enforcement and medical career, and is seen as having a really good chance to replace Kyl, and being Hispanic (Puerto Rican) in Arizona is certainly a positive, as well as his biography.

If one had to put betting money on these five races, it would be a good bet that Maine, Massachusetts, and Arizona will go Democratic in Senate races, with Indiana and Nevada tougher races.

That would mean a three seat gain for the Democrats, making it much tougher for Republicans to become a majority, as then they would need at least six to seven Democratic held seats out of 12 seats seen as in play, with 11 others of the total 23 seats seen as NOT in play!

An analysis of Democratic seats in contention will follow in the coming days!

The State Of The Electoral College 26 Days Before The Election: Obama Wins By More Narrow Margin!

Ronald 2 Comments

There has been a lot of hysteria and panic about Barack Obama, as a result of his sub par performance in the first Presidential debate last week.

But even before the Vice Presidential debate tonight between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan, and next Tuesday’s second Presidential debate between Obama and Mitt Romney, when one thinks clearly and calms down, it is clear that Barack Obama is going to win the election, and that the Electoral College, which elects our Presidents, is favorable to him.

This has been discussed before by this blogger, and certainly the math of the Electoral College is in flux, but still the odds are heavily in favor or Obama winning!

Let’s start with the reality, that Obama has 237 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win, and anyone who hallucinates that somehow, the states that he is seen as having certain in his camp will magically switch to Romney, needs a dose of reality!

Obama will win the entire Northeast (except possibly New Hampshire); Illinois, Michigan and Minnesota in the Midwest; New Mexico; the Pacific Coast; and Hawaii. This is a total of 18 states and the District of Columbia. No money is being spent by the Romney campaign in these states, as Romney alienated Michigan in calling for the bankruptcy of the auto industry, and Minnesota has never been seen as a state that was seriously a candidate to back Romney’s candidacy, although if former Governor Tim Pawlenty had been Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate, Minnesota might have been in play!

Everyone talks about “swing states”, and yes, there are nine of those up for grabs, but in four of them, Obama is favored because the unemployment rate is lower than the national average—New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Iowa–with a total of 41 electoral votes, which if added to the 237 for Obama, becomes a grant total of 278 electoral votes, 8 more than needed.

Iowa is sixth lowest unemployment rate with 5.5%; New Hampshire is seventh lowest with 5.7%; Virginia is tenth lowest with 5.9 %; and Ohio is 20th lowest with 7.2%. Additionally, Wisconsin is 25th lowest with 7.5%—all five of these states under the national rate of 7.8%!

Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada have higher unemployment rates, and therefore can be seen as much more difficult for Obama to win, particularly after the “bump” in some polls for Romney after the first Presidential debate.

So let’s assume the latter four states, and even Wisconsin (as the home of Paul Ryan) go to Romney. It still is not enough, as the most he would have then would be 260 electoral votes, ten short of the number needed to win the Presidency!

The Electoral College numbers are still subject to change over the next 26 days, but it is safe to say, that the LOW point is 278 electoral votes for Barack Obama from a total of 22 states and the District of Columbia, with still the potential for Obama to win all nine of the ‘swing states”, rather than four, and a grand high total of 347 electoral votes to 191 for Mitt Romney!