Midterm Elections Of 2002

Impeachment Investigations Of Government Officials In American History Mostly Without Basis, More For Political Purposes

The impeachment of Donald Trump seems possible in 2019 IF the Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives, which seems highly likely, based upon polls 100 days out, and with the reminder that the party out of the White House always gains seats in the midterm elections, with the exceptions of 1934 under Franklin D. Roosevelt and 2002 under George W. Bush.

Having said that, it is reality that impeachment does not lead to convictions and removals from office, with the exception of seven federal district court judges over the long span of American history.

Richard Nixon would have been an exception if he had not resigned, but Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton both were found not guilty in their impeachment trials.

Other Presidents have been threatened with impeachment, but it was more just a threat or simply could not gain enough support in the House of Representatives to lead to impeachment.

That list of threatened impeachments include: John Tyler in 1842 and 1843; James Buchanan in 1860; Ulysses S. Grant in 1876; Herbert Hoover in 1933; Harry Truman in 1951; Ronald Reagan in 1987; George H. W. Bush in 1991; George W. Bush in 2008; Barack Obama in 2013: and Donald Trump in 2017 and 2018. Notice most of these were not serious, and in many cases occurred in the last year of the President’s term or near the end of his last term in office.

Vice Presidents who have faced impeachment threats are: Schuyler Colfax in 1873, as he was leaving the Grant Administration; Spiro Agnew in 1973 as he neared resignation due to scandal under the Nixon Administration; George H. W. Bush in 1987 as the Iran Contra scandal emerged; and Dick Cheney in 2007 as the second Bush Administration dealt with the Iraq War continuation. None of them gained any traction.

Impeachment motions against Cabinet officers and other federal officials have been mostly just a gesture, a threat, as with, for example, Attorney General Eric Holder in 2013; Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez in 2007; and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld in 2004. Most recently threatened with impeachment is Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein in the past few days, but unlikely to gain any traction, more used as a political ploy.

American History Since The Civil War: President’s Party Loses 32 House Seats And 2 Senate Seats In First Midterm Election

American history tells us that the party of the President regularly loses seats in the first, and all but once in the second (when it occurs) Presidential term of office.

The one major exception was 1934, when in the midst of the Great Depression, and FDR’s New Deal programs, the Democratic party gained 9 seats in the Senate and 9 seats in the House of Representatives.

Also, in 2002, after September 11, George W. Bush and the Republican Party gained 2 seats in the Senate and 8 in the House of Representatives.

And Bill Clinton and the Democratic Party, in the second term midterm election in 1998, gained 5 House seats, with no change in the US Senate.

That is the total historical record since the Civil War, more than 150 years, so it is clear that the Democrats will gain seats in the midterm elections of 2018.

The average since the Civil War is 32 House seats and 2 Senate seats, and if that happens precisely, the Democrats will have gained the House, needing only 24 seats, and the average historically being 23 seats, when one includes both first and second term midterm elections of a President.

But also, if the Senate were to see just the 2 seat gain as the average, then the Democrats would have the majority with 51 seats, which can be brought about by gaining the contested seats of Arizona, where Jeff Flake is retiring, and Nevada, where Dean Heller is seen as the most endangered Republican in 2018.

But to accomplish that, the Democrats must produce, miraculously. the retention of Senate seats in 10 Trump states in 2016–Missouri, North Dakota, Indiana, Montana, West Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio, and also retain the Minnesota seat recently vacated by Al Franken, and the New Jersey Senate seat of Bob Menendez, who faces another criminal trial after a hung jury. That will be a tall order for sure!

Will 2010 Be Another 1934? More Likely Than Imagined Today!

Only twice has the party in the White House won seats in the midterm elections–1934 and 2002!

2002 was right after the attacks of September 11 the year before, and there was still great support for George W. Bush, so the GOP gained a few seats in 2002–four in the House of Representatives and two in the Senate!

In 1934, the Democrats under Franklin D. Roosevelt gained nine seats in the House and nine in the Senate, an amazing reality considering the unemployment rate was 21.7 percent, down from 24.9, but still unbelievably high!

In 1936, when FDR ran for reelection and swept all but Maine and Vermont, the unemployment rate was still 17.0 percent; and in 1940, it was still 14.6 percent!

FDR was constantly attacked by the Republican opposition, and by demagogues on radio, called a socialist and a communist by many! But still, the American people saw that the President was concerned about them, and was doing everything possible to work on the economic mess, while the opposition was only negative and critical, and had no real alternative to what the Democrats offered!

So while there is a 9.5 percent unemployment rate in early July, 2010, it has not risen to the Reagan high of 10.8 in 1982, having peaked at 10.2 percent months ago!

No one is saying that anyone is happy about the economic situation that exists, but don’t be so sure that the Republican and conservative attacks are really going to have the effect that many believe!

The more the GOP candidates for office speak and comment, and the more research that is done by the Democrats on their backgrounds and records, the more the chance grows that the Democrats will have only small losses in Congress, and with some luck, maybe even some slight gains in one or both houses of Congress!

It is not time in July, 2010, to give up on the Democratic party, which has brought about fundamental change under President Obama, similar to what happened under President Roosevelt almost eighty years ago!