American history tells us that the party of the President regularly loses seats in the first, and all but once in the second (when it occurs) Presidential term of office.
The one major exception was 1934, when in the midst of the Great Depression, and FDR’s New Deal programs, the Democratic party gained 9 seats in the Senate and 9 seats in the House of Representatives.
Also, in 2002, after September 11, George W. Bush and the Republican Party gained 2 seats in the Senate and 8 in the House of Representatives.
And Bill Clinton and the Democratic Party, in the second term midterm election in 1998, gained 5 House seats, with no change in the US Senate.
That is the total historical record since the Civil War, more than 150 years, so it is clear that the Democrats will gain seats in the midterm elections of 2018.
The average since the Civil War is 32 House seats and 2 Senate seats, and if that happens precisely, the Democrats will have gained the House, needing only 24 seats, and the average historically being 23 seats, when one includes both first and second term midterm elections of a President.
But also, if the Senate were to see just the 2 seat gain as the average, then the Democrats would have the majority with 51 seats, which can be brought about by gaining the contested seats of Arizona, where Jeff Flake is retiring, and Nevada, where Dean Heller is seen as the most endangered Republican in 2018.
But to accomplish that, the Democrats must produce, miraculously. the retention of Senate seats in 10 Trump states in 2016–Missouri, North Dakota, Indiana, Montana, West Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio, and also retain the Minnesota seat recently vacated by Al Franken, and the New Jersey Senate seat of Bob Menendez, who faces another criminal trial after a hung jury. That will be a tall order for sure!
With the reported twenty-plus point shift in voter’s choices, against Don the Con, winning a majority in the House seems assured for the Democrats. Winning a majority in the Senate, if it happens, doesn’t help as much as you’d think, because it requires two-thirds of the Senate to confirm an impeachment. Just think how things would go if Don survived impeachment in the Senate– like Andrew Johnson back in the days of yore (1867?) what would happen? Could Don survive impeachment? It seems unlikely with the amount of damning information that has come out already, but if the Republicans get really hard-line, even if they are in the minority they could carry Don’s defense. The possibility is too horrendous to contemplate. He’d probably cancel the next presidential election and declare himself President for Life, bigly. That might start a civil war. I can’t think about it, it’s too horrific.
Oh Conrad, what a terrible scenario! 🙁
But somehow, I do not think, as bad as they are, that the GOP would allow Trump to cancel the election and declare himself President for Life.
That would destroy their party once and for all!
Dubya was back on SNL to remind us he was bad.
Hillary roasted Trump at the Grammys.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/hillary-clinton-roasts-trump-at-the-grammys-by-narrating-fire-and-fury
Yet another reason why Democrats need to take back Congress in November!
https://thinkprogress.org/house-republicans-release-memo-4b29363cc504/