Michigan

Gallup Vs. Nate Silver: Who Is Reliable In Prediction Of Presidential Race?

Ronald Leave a comment

Here we are a week out from the election, and the public opinion polls and prognosticators are driving everyone nuts, with contradictory views and statistics as to whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will be elected next week.

The Gallup polls have projected Romney as ahead by five points in some polls, and other polls have shown a tight race, almost even.

Meanwhile, Nate Silver of the NY TIMES, considered the master of political polling science, says that Barack Obama has about a 73 percent chance of winning, particularly in regard to the “swing states”, showing him ahead in all but North Carolina and Florida, and a tossup in Colorado and Virginia.

But leaving North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Virginia out of the mix for Obama, that still means he is favored in New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin and Nevada, and will win 295 electoral votes, 24 more than is needed to win the Presidency.

So this leaves us in a quandary!

Who do we trust or believe in? Nate Silver or the Gallup Polls, or other polls?

Remember, the Gallup polls were totally wrong in 1948, predicting a victory for Thomas E. Dewey over Harry Truman!

But, of course, that was 64 years ago, a long time, with much improvement and proof of reliability of Gallup much of the time!

On the other hand, the last time we had such a stiff, awkward, hard to relate to, Governor of a Northeastern state who had been born in Michigan, before Mitt Romney was, indeed, Dewey in 1948!

Hmmm, that is food for thought!

The Ultimate “Firewall” For Barack Obama: The Midwest

Ronald Leave a comment

This author has commented before about the fact that the Midwest, an area of declining electoral votes and representation in Congress, because of the rapid migration from the “Frost Belt” to the “Sun Belt”, remains an area that has had a dramatic effect on American politics and Presidential elections.

Ohio and Missouri have been the ultimately accurate states to predict elections, with Missouri only voting with the loser twice—1956 and 2008—and Ohio, also only twice with the loser—1944 and 1960—since 1900.

And now, with Obama clearly winning Michigan, Minnesota, and Illinois, and seemingly ahead in Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin, the President could afford to lose the three Southern states he won in 2008—Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina—and still win the Electoral College.

With 237 electoral votes in Obama’s camp, and only needing 33 more, Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin would give him 34, raising his total to 271, exactly what George W. Bush won in 2008, against Al Gore, who won the national popular vote by more than 500,000 votes.

With some observers seeing a popular vote surge to Mitt Romney, we could be witnessing a scenario of the same situation as in 2000- –the winner of the electoral vote NOT winning the popular vote, which would make it the fifth time in history, and the second time in 12 years, that such a situation occurred.

The difference is that this time the Democrat will have benefited, while the last time, the Republican benefited.

In a way, if that happened, it would be “justice” for Al Gore supporters and Democrats!

However, it would also lead to growing demands to change the Constitution and get rid of the Electoral College, with the reality being that the likelihood of such a change is near zero!

The State Of The Electoral College 26 Days Before The Election: Obama Wins By More Narrow Margin!

Ronald 2 Comments

There has been a lot of hysteria and panic about Barack Obama, as a result of his sub par performance in the first Presidential debate last week.

But even before the Vice Presidential debate tonight between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan, and next Tuesday’s second Presidential debate between Obama and Mitt Romney, when one thinks clearly and calms down, it is clear that Barack Obama is going to win the election, and that the Electoral College, which elects our Presidents, is favorable to him.

This has been discussed before by this blogger, and certainly the math of the Electoral College is in flux, but still the odds are heavily in favor or Obama winning!

Let’s start with the reality, that Obama has 237 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win, and anyone who hallucinates that somehow, the states that he is seen as having certain in his camp will magically switch to Romney, needs a dose of reality!

Obama will win the entire Northeast (except possibly New Hampshire); Illinois, Michigan and Minnesota in the Midwest; New Mexico; the Pacific Coast; and Hawaii. This is a total of 18 states and the District of Columbia. No money is being spent by the Romney campaign in these states, as Romney alienated Michigan in calling for the bankruptcy of the auto industry, and Minnesota has never been seen as a state that was seriously a candidate to back Romney’s candidacy, although if former Governor Tim Pawlenty had been Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate, Minnesota might have been in play!

Everyone talks about “swing states”, and yes, there are nine of those up for grabs, but in four of them, Obama is favored because the unemployment rate is lower than the national average—New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Iowa–with a total of 41 electoral votes, which if added to the 237 for Obama, becomes a grant total of 278 electoral votes, 8 more than needed.

Iowa is sixth lowest unemployment rate with 5.5%; New Hampshire is seventh lowest with 5.7%; Virginia is tenth lowest with 5.9 %; and Ohio is 20th lowest with 7.2%. Additionally, Wisconsin is 25th lowest with 7.5%—all five of these states under the national rate of 7.8%!

Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada have higher unemployment rates, and therefore can be seen as much more difficult for Obama to win, particularly after the “bump” in some polls for Romney after the first Presidential debate.

So let’s assume the latter four states, and even Wisconsin (as the home of Paul Ryan) go to Romney. It still is not enough, as the most he would have then would be 260 electoral votes, ten short of the number needed to win the Presidency!

The Electoral College numbers are still subject to change over the next 26 days, but it is safe to say, that the LOW point is 278 electoral votes for Barack Obama from a total of 22 states and the District of Columbia, with still the potential for Obama to win all nine of the ‘swing states”, rather than four, and a grand high total of 347 electoral votes to 191 for Mitt Romney!

Romney And Ryan On Way To Losing Every State Connected To Them, Except Utah!

Ronald 2 Comments

It seems clear that Wisconsin Republican Congressman Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate, will not be able to help win Wisconsin in the Presidential election, as one polls shows a 14 point lead now for Barack Obama.

But Mitt Romney, who has connections to five states in his life, also seems likely to lose all but Utah, the center of the Mormon Church/\.

Romney will not win Massachusetts, where he governed; Michigan, where he grew up; New Hampshire, where he has a home, but is running behind Obama; and California, where he has the infamous home which is having a car elevator installed!

What a pitiful record when neither running mate on the GOP line can claim a home state in their favor, and only the Mormon dominated Utah can be seen as supporting Mitt Romney!

The Potential Future Of Former Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm: Supreme Court Or Justice Department?

Ronald Leave a comment

Jennifer Granholm is a political figure to watch in the second term of Barack Obama, assuming that he wins reelection.

Granholm is the former Governor of Michigan and, earlier, was Attorney General of the Motor City state. She faced tough economic times, but managed to get reelected in 2006.

Since she left the Governorship, she has become a talk show host on Al Gore’s CURRENT channel on cable, and her show is well received for its analysis of the news, and her colorful personality.

That personality was very evident at the Democratic National Convention, when among all of the exceptional oratorical performances, her denunciation of Mitt Romney, and her description of the total number of jobs saved or created by Barack Obama’s rescue of the auto industry, both in Michigan, and in many other states, reverberated throughout the convention hall. She put on a magnificent, virtuoso performance, showing evidence of the acting ability she has, which, when she was young and a contestant on THE DATING GAME in 1978 at age 19, she indicated an interest in a Hollywood career.

Granholm’s speech and her background as Governor and Attorney General of Michigan bring attention to her potential future.

There is speculation that she could be on the short list for the Supreme Court and for Attorney General, as both positions can be expected to have vacancies.

The most likely first vacancy on the Supreme Court could be that of the seat of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, who will be 80 next year, will have served 20 years on the Court, and has suffered from two bouts of cancer and lost her husband in recent years. Granholm would be an excellent selection to take Ginsberg’s seat, and would insure that the liberal approach of Ginsberg would remain on the Court.

But also, it is likely that Attorney General Eric Holder, under attack by the Republicans on many fronts, might decide one term is enough, and Granholm, with her service as Michigan Attorney General for four years, would be an excellent successor, and would have no problem at all in going into combat with Republicans in Congress.

Granholm is one tough lady, and would be certain to be an Attorney General who would fight the good battle for the American people against the power of big business and special interests, and with concern for the rights of average Americans through strict enforcement of civil rights and civil liberties!

“Swing” States Down To Eight, Narrowing Romney Chances Of Winning Presidency!

Ronald Leave a comment

The Mitt Romney Presidential campaign has decided to buy advertising time on television in only eight states, narrowing the chance that the former Massachusetts Governor can win the Presidency.

Eliminated as places of opportunity are Michigan, the birthplace and childhood of Romney, and the state that his father was Governor in the 1960s; Wisconsin, the birthplace and home of his running mate, Paul Ryan; and Pennsylvania, despite the well known white male battleground of western Pennsylvania, often thought to be an Achilles Heel for Barack Obama!

So what are the states still in play?

New Hampshire–4 electoral votes
Virginia–13 electoral votes
North Carolina–15 electoral votes
Florida–29 electoral votes
Ohio–18 electoral votes
Iowa–6 electoral votes
Colorado–9 electoral votes
Nevada–6 electoral votes

The total electoral votes in play are 100, while Obama leads with 247 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney has 191 electoral votes from 23 states. Remember that the winner of the election must have 270 electoral votes.

So, with the updated realities that even Romney’s advertising campaign reflects, Obama wins If

he wins Florida (29 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Virginia (31 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and North Carolina (33 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Iowa or Nevada (24 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Colorado (27 electoral votes)
he wins New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Colorado (24 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Iowa and Nevada (27 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Iowa and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Colorado and New Hampshire (26 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia, Colorado, and either Iowa or Nevada (28 electoral votes)

So these are ELEVEN scenarios where Barack Obama has the advantage–needing only between one and four states of the eight “swing” states to win the Presidency in the Electoral College!

The unemployment rate is lower than the national average in New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio and Iowa, while higher in North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

So if one were to assume that the four states that have the lower unemployment rate than the national average go to Obama, he wins 41 electoral votes, for a grand total of 288 electoral votes.

Of course, there are five states, that are considered “red” or Republican states, that actually are in play, although expected to go to Romney. These are Indiana (11 electoral votes), which went to Obama in 2008; Missouri (10 electoral votes), which was won by John McCain in 2008 by only about 4,000 votes; Montana (3 electoral votes), which is becoming more Democratic; Arizona (11 electoral votes), which is moving toward Democratic over time with the growing Hispanic vote, and the controversial immigration law under Governor Jan Brewer; and Georgia (16 electoral votes), which is gaining a large Hispanic population, which means it will likely trend Democratic over the next few election cycles. Were all of these to go Democratic in a close vote situation, Obama could, theoretically, win 51 more electoral votes!

So, IF Obama were to win all of the eight “swing states” now in play, based on Romney’s decision as to what states to spend money on advertising, he would go from what seems clearly 247 electoral votes to 347 electoral votes–meaning he would have won all of the states he won in 2008, except for Indiana!

This is 18 electoral votes fewer than in 2008, when Obama won 365 electoral votes–due to the theoretical loss of Indiana (11 electoral votes), plus the fact that the states he won lost a total of 7 electoral votes due to reapportionment of seats in Congress, based on the 2010 Census.

But IF Obama were to win the “red” states that could be in play, listed above, a total of five states with 51 electoral votes, his highest theoretical total of electoral votes would reach 398 electoral votes, meaning Romney would win only 140 electoral votes, with Obama winning 32 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney winning 18 states!

The ultimate point of this discussion is to make it clear that the odds of Obama being re-elected are very high, despite the supposedly tight popular vote on a national level, which really proves nothing, as the polls on popular vote in the eight “swing” states demonstrate that Obama is ahead in all of them, except in North Carolina and Colorado, so to bet against Obama would be a losing bet, best thought about before being placed, as the odds of losing large amounts of money is extremely a likely occurrence!

Latest Poll Averages Show Obama Ahead Of Romney In Eleven Of Twelve Battleground States!

Ronald Leave a comment

Barack Obama may be only slightly ahead of Mitt Romney nationally in the average of various polls–47.3 percent to 44.7 percent, but when one looks at twelve battleground or swing states, he is ahead of Romney in all but North Carolina, where he trails Romney by 48.5 to 46.5, two percentage points.

Obama is ahead by almost 6 points in Ohio; by 2.5 points in Virginia; by 3 points in Florida; by 6.5 points in Pennsylvania; by almost 4 points in Iowa; by 5.5 points in Nevada; by 5 points in Wisconsin; by 7 points in New Mexico; by 6.5 points in Michigan; and by almost 3 points in New Hampshire. In Colorado, the margin is only two tenths of one point for Obama over Romney, nearly an even split.

So Obama is ahead in 10 of the 12 states listed, all of which he won in 2008, nearly even in Colorado, and only behind in North Carolina!

Not bad considering the blistering attacks and lies and deception that have been going on for three and a half years as President, greater than any President since the last one who was called every name in the book, and yet won a landslide victory in 1936 in the midst of the Great Depression, with unemployment levels still much higher than they are in 2012.

The author is referring here to Franklin D. Roosevelt!

George And Lenore Romney: Would They Be Proud Of Son Mitt Romney, And How He Has Evolved?

Ronald Leave a comment

George Romney was the Chief Executive of American Motors Corporation in the 1950s and early 1960s, and then ran for and won the Governorship of Michigan for six years, and was Secretary of Housing and Urban Development for four years under President Richard Nixon. He was a candidate for the GOP nomination for President in 1964 and 1968, and at one point, was ahead in public opinion polls for the Presidential nomination in 1968.

George Romney lived in poverty as a young man, but became a self made millionaire, and devoted his political career to moderation in the Republican Party, bitterly fighting Senator Barry Goldwater’s nomination and campaign for President in 1964, saying it was undermining Republican values.

George Romney had a good relationship with the African American community, as HUD Secretary, and was always an activist on civil rights.

George Romney was a very decent man, who, when he ran for President, revealed 12 years of his income tax returns, making it clear that a candidate for the highest office in the land needed to be transparent about his financial matters, and that one year revelations could be very misleading.

Lenore Romney, George’s wife and First Lady of Michigan when her husband was Governor, ran for the US Senate in Michigan in 1970, losing in a landslide to distinguished Senator Philip Hart. But she ran a campaign supporting abortion rights, advocated a national health care plan, spoke up for environmental regulations of industry, and opposed continuation of the war in Vietnam.

This wonderful political couple contributed to their nation not only their political careers, but four children, with the youngest, born in 1947, being Willard Mitt Romney, now the GOP Presidential nominee.

But the problem was that they made life too easy and comfortable for their youngest child, who basically turned out to be a “spoiled brat”, who could bully a fellow student while in high school, as the leader of what could be called a “gang”, and go on to feel that he was “entitled” to what he wanted, and could avoid service in Vietnam by using his Mormon religion as an excuse, which is perfectly legitimate, but showed he had no desire to put his life on the line, since he was a privileged young man, and could evade it, and would do so!

That has been the reality of Mitt Romney’s life: to evade responsibility, to take advantage of others, to abuse workers in companies he owned, to have no conscience about what he was doing to others, while claiming to be “religious”, and demonstrating willingness to change his mind as often as possible on every issue imaginable, and therefore having no convictions or principles he would not sacrifice for his obsessive ambition to be President!

It is hard to imagine that George and Lenore Romney would be totally proud of how their son has turned out. Of course, they would love him, but it is quite likely they would be embarrassed and distressed about his moving from the center of American politics to the extreme right, something George and Lenore fought against all of their lives, They would also be distressed that he has endorsed stands against women’s rights to their control of their own bodies on the issue of contraception, all for their son to gain the backing of conservative and evangelical voters!

Face the facts: Mitt Romney is NOT George Romney, and his wife, Anne is NOT Lenore Romney, a woman of true convictions, unlike Anne, who gave up her faith to marry a very wealthy guy, agreed that her parents would not be allowed in the Salt Lake Mormon Temple for their marriage, and allowed her dad, an atheist, to be converted to Mormonism after death by baptism without his approval or knowledge!

The children are not the match of the parents in the case of Mitt and Anne Romney, sorry to say!

A Liberal-Progressive Mount Rushmore And A Conservative Mount Rushmore: Who Would Be On Such Mount Rushmores?

Ronald 9 Comments

Last Friday, Joe Scarborough and MORNING JOE on MSNBC had distinguished historians assess which Presidents might be on a new, second Mount Rushmore, if such a monument were ever built.

This brought to mind the idea of who might be on a Liberal-Progressive Mount Rushmore, and who would be on a Conservative Mount Rushmore, if such were ever constructed anywhere in America.

This is mostly just interesting scholarly speculation, but here goes my suggestions for such honoring on both sides of the political spectrum.

LIBERAL/PROGRESSIVE MOUNT RUSHMORE

Robert La Follette, Sr.–Republican Governor (1900-1906) and Senator (1906-1925) of Wisconsin–Mr. Progressive of the early 20th century and 1924 Progressive Party nominee for President.

George Norris–Republican Congressman (1902-1912) and Senator (1912-1942) of Nebraska–the most creative reform figure and longevity of the first half of the 20th century, a bridge between the Progressive Era of Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson and the New Deal of Franklin D. Roosevelt.

Hubert H. Humphrey–Democratic Mayor Of Minneapolis (1945-1949), Senator (1949-1964, 1970-1978) of Minnesota, and Vice President of the United States (1965-1969) and Democratic Presidential nominee in 1968, who had the most creative record of promoting reform in the years after World War II throughout the 1960s.

Ted Kennedy–Democratic Senator (1962-2009) of Massachusetts, the fourth longest serving US Senator in American history, and the most creative reformer in the years from the 1970s until his death in 2009.

A possible alternative would be Democratic Senator George McGovern of
South Dakota (1922-2012), who ran for President in 1972, and was a major critic of the Vietnam War, one of the most decent men ever in American politics, serving in the Senate from 1963-1981.

CONSERVATIVE MOUNT RUSHMORE

Arthur Vandenberg–Republican Senator (1928-1951) of Michigan, who opposed the New Deal and was an isolationist in foreign policy through World War II, but then became an internationalist in support of the United Nations and President Harry Truman’s Cold War policy against the Soviet Union after World War II, and potential Presidential candidate twice.

Robert Taft–Republican Senator (1939-1953) of Ohio, son of President and Chief Justice William Howard Taft, promoted the anti labor union Taft-Hartley Act, promoted an isolationist foreign policy, and considered Mr. Conservative by his party, and a potential Presidential candidate numerous times.

Barry Goldwater–Senator (1952-1964, 1968-1986) of Arizona, succeeding Robert Taft as Mr. Conservative, and 1964 Republican nominee for President, becoming the hero of conservatives long term, and having an effect on President Ronald Reagan.

Ronald Reagan–Republican Governor of California (1966-1974), and President of the United States (1981-1989), after a career as a movie actor, influenced by the principles and ideas of Barry Goldwater, who he publicly backed in a famous speech in 1964.

The author welcomes commentary on these selections!

Republican Governors Rave About Improved Economy, But Mitt Romney Wants Them NOT To Claim So!

Ronald Leave a comment

An interesting development as we see Republican Governors raving about their improved economies, but causing grief for Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney in doing so!

Florida Governor Rick Scott, Michigan Governor Rick Snyder, Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, and Ohio Governor John Kasich all have been boasting about their states’ economies vastly improving.

The fact that all of these states except Florida have an unemployment rate BELOW the national average is a PLUS for President Barack Obama, although, of course, these GOP Governors will not give him any credit!

But by them pointing out their improved economies, it hurts the cause of Mitt Romney, who is trying to make a campaign simply on the economy, ignoring everything else, such as foreign policy, the future of the Supreme Court, and many social issues.

Romney seems to think that he will be able to focus on what he wants only, but that will certainly not be the case as the Obama campaign zeroes in on other issues, and as the three Presidential debates and one Vice Presidential debate arrive on the scene in September and October!