Iowa

Medicare Will Decide The Election: IF Obama Wins Florida AND New Hampshire Of “Battleground” States, He Wins The Presidency!

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Chuck Todd of NBC’s Meet The Press just demonstrated how close Barack Obama is to a victory for the White House.

Showing an electoral vote map with 237 electoral votes in Obama’s camp and 191 in Mitt Romney’s camp, Todd demonstrates that there are NINE true “battleground” or “swing” states, and if Obama wins Florida and New Hampshire, he has the second term he wants in the White House! And the issue of Medicare, brought to central focus by Paul Ryan and his budget plans on that program, will be the center of the victory of Obama for the Presidency!

Even if Romney wins the other seven contestable states—Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada—he would lose the Electoral College 270-268, due to Florida’s 29 electoral votes and New Hampshire’s 4 electoral votes!

But, to assume that Obama would really lose all seven of those states is also delusional, as it is certain that he will win some, and probably, most of them!

This author has been saying this for a long time, and has found some readers of this blog, conservative and Republican friends and associates, and people on Fox News Channel and talk radio, act as if only the public opinion polls, which often show a close race in many states and nationally, should be paid attention to, but that is NOT the case!

The election is decided by the Electoral College, NOT the popular vote nationally,and do not forget that George W. Bush LOST the popular vote in 2000, but was declared the winner of the Electoral College! The same happened to Benjamin Harrison, Rutherford Hayes, and John Quincy Adams in the past!

But to conclude that, somehow, Barack Obama will lose the national popular vote, with the Republican alienation of Hispanics-Latinos, African Americans, women, young voters, the middle class, senior citizens, gays and lesbians, the poor, labor, educators, consumer advocates, environmentalists, and secular voters—in each case, the majority, not all of any group, of course—indicates that those believing what they do are indeed delusional, and cannot be helped by ordinary medical intervention!

Latest Poll Averages Show Obama Ahead Of Romney In Eleven Of Twelve Battleground States!

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Barack Obama may be only slightly ahead of Mitt Romney nationally in the average of various polls–47.3 percent to 44.7 percent, but when one looks at twelve battleground or swing states, he is ahead of Romney in all but North Carolina, where he trails Romney by 48.5 to 46.5, two percentage points.

Obama is ahead by almost 6 points in Ohio; by 2.5 points in Virginia; by 3 points in Florida; by 6.5 points in Pennsylvania; by almost 4 points in Iowa; by 5.5 points in Nevada; by 5 points in Wisconsin; by 7 points in New Mexico; by 6.5 points in Michigan; and by almost 3 points in New Hampshire. In Colorado, the margin is only two tenths of one point for Obama over Romney, nearly an even split.

So Obama is ahead in 10 of the 12 states listed, all of which he won in 2008, nearly even in Colorado, and only behind in North Carolina!

Not bad considering the blistering attacks and lies and deception that have been going on for three and a half years as President, greater than any President since the last one who was called every name in the book, and yet won a landslide victory in 1936 in the midst of the Great Depression, with unemployment levels still much higher than they are in 2012.

The author is referring here to Franklin D. Roosevelt!

Women In Congress And Governorships: The Historical Record

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As we celebrate the growing role of women in public life and politics, the question arises as to what is the record of election of women to the two houses of Congress, and to state governorships.

An investigation reveals the following:

All but six states have elected women to the House Of Representatives since 1916, when Montana elected Jeanette Rankin. Those six exceptions are Alaska, Delaware, Iowa, Mississippi, North Dakota, and Vermont. But Alaska and North Dakota have had women in the US Senate, and Alaska, Delaware, and Vermont have had women governors. In Iowa and Mississippi, the highest elected woman has been a Lieutenant Governor.

Of course, to be fair, one must remember that Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota and Vermont each have had only one member of the House of Representatives, due to the small population of those states, offering only a total of four possibilities for election of a woman in each of those states–one House seat, two Senate seats, and one Governorship.

As far as Iowa and Mississippi, there is no such excuse available!

At the same time, right now, we have two women representing each of the following states in the US Senate–Maine, New Hampshire, California, and Washington State–three Republicans and five Democrats!

The Advancement Of Gay Marriage Rights In California And Washington State

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Events of this week are very promising regarding the expansion of gay marriage rights.

California’s Ninth Circuit Court has declared Proposition 8, which banned gay marriage in 2008 as unconstitutional, upholding a district court ruling, and this makes it likely that gay marriage will be on the Supreme Court docket very soon, possibly even this year, already full of turning point cases on the Obama Health Care plan, voting rights, and illegal immigration restrictions in Arizona and Alabama.

Additionally, the state of Washington is about to become the seventh state to allow gay marriage, after passage by the state legislature and a soon to be signing by the governor of the state.

So Washington joins Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, and Iowa as states that allow gay marriage, along with Washington DC, and hopefully, it will return to California where it was legal for a period of time before being overturned.

Twenty to thirty years from now, when gay marriage is a normal thing, many will wonder what was the fuss back in the early part of the century, much like when one looks back to before 1967, one wonders why the big deal over racial intermarriage, which was not legal until a Supreme Court decision in 1967.

Marriage cannot be forced on any religious group, but there is no legal reason why gay marriage cannot be done outside of religious institutions that reject change. It is a question of basic human rights, and equal treatment under the Constitution!

Florida: A Complex State Politically, And Hard To Predict Its Impact

Ronald 1 Comment

With the Florida Republican Primary just eight days away, and with many Republican voters having already engaged in early voting or absentee mail ballots, the question arises as to what one can expect to happen on January 31.

Mitt Romney has the most money and is seen as the moderate in the race, although he professes to be conservative.

Newt Gingrich, flush off his victory in South Carolina, would seem to have an edge, although Florida is not quite the same as South Carolina electorally, being much more unpredictable.

Florida is really multiple states in electoral behavior, as the Panhandle, particularly west of Tallahassee, the state capital, is very much like South Carolina or “southern Alabama”, strongly evangelical Christian and Tea Party oriented. But central Florida, including Tampa and Orlando, tends to be made up of people from the Midwest, while South Florida has large concentrations of Cubans, but also Northeasterners, including Jews in large numbers. And Puerto Ricans are found in Orlando in large numbers, and liberal strongholds exist in Tallahassee due to Florida State University’s presence, and in Gainesville, home of the University of Florida.

So if Florida comes across in the GOP Primary as too conservative, that can affect the balance among Hispanics, African Americans, and Jews, heavily concentrated in South Florida and portions of Central Florida, when it comes to the Presidential election in November.

Florida has a “split personality”, and being a megastate, more representative of the nation than Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina, it could turn out to be very unpredictable in its impact on the Republican Presidential battle, and in the fall campaign against Barack Obama.

Newt Gingrich’s Hubris Has No Limits!

Ronald 1 Comment

Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, has called upon fellow Presidential contenders Rick Santorum and Rick Perry to withdraw from the race and back him as the alternative to Mitt Romney. What hubris he has beyond belief!

The fact that Rick Santorum may have won Iowa, if not ending up eight votes behind Romney, does not seem to impress Gingrich.

The fact that Rick Santorum came in fourth, ahead of Gingrich, who ended up fifth, in New Hampshire, does not seem to impress Gingrich.

The fact that more than two thirds of evangelical Christian leaders meeting in Texas over the past weekend decided to throw their support to Santorum, does not seem to have impressed Gingrich.

Gingrich sees himself as brilliant, intelligent, far above all other candidates in capabilities, even though a vast majority of former House associates and Republican political leaders nationally have attacked his candidacy on many grounds.

Instead, it is Todd Palin, and now his wife Sarah, either endorsing or speaking up for Gingrich, with Sarah avoiding going as far as her husband.

Is not that involvement by the Palins enough of an answer about the legitimacy of Newt Gingrich? The Palins, particularly Sarah, have loads of hubris like Gingrich, but not even with his intelligence and brilliance! They are the mark of the STUPID group within the GOP, which includes former candidates Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain!

Newt Gingrich has stated that if he does not win South Carolina this coming weekend, that the race is over. Let’s hope that such is the case, and that we will stop having to listen to the braggadocio of this pompous, overbearing, obnoxious, egotistical person who has passed his prime long ago!

Obama Strategies To Win Reelection In 2012: Alternative Routes To Victory

Ronald 1 Comment

Barack Obama seems extremely likely to win the entire Northeast from Maine to Maryland and Washington, DC in 2012, with possibly New Hampshire and Pennsylvania as exceptions. So that would be 112 electoral votes, or without Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, 88 electoral votes.

He is expected also to win the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon and Washington as well, which would mean 74 electoral votes.

In the Midwest, Illinois is a certainty, and the upper Midwest seems strongly Democratic too, including Michigan, WIsconsin, and Minnesota, which means these four states are together a total of 56 electoral votes.

So far, that adds up to 218 electoral votes, without New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and with them, it is 242, 28 short of the number needed, 270 electoral votes, to win the Presidency.

So what is needed to guarantee an Obama victory?

1, The state of Florida with 29 electoral votes would put Obama over the top with all of the above states, and add Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, all with growing Hispanic and Latino populations, and supportive of Obama the last time, and you get 26 electoral votes, to replace a possible loss of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

2. Another scenario is to win Ohio and Missouri, the two states most representative of the winning Presidential candidates, with Ohio being with the GOP nominee every time he has won in US History, and Missouri wrong only twice on the Presidential winner since 1900–1956 and 2008–with their combined 28 replacing Florida or Iowa and the three Southwestern states.

3. Another strategy is to try to win in Georgia and Arizona, along with Missouri, three states won by John McCain in 2008, but all susceptible to moving to Obama with growing Hispanic and Latino populations. This way one gains 37 electoral votes, replacing either Florida OR Iowa and the three Southwestern states.

4. Also, if Obama wins Virginia and North Carolina, he wins 28 electoral votes and does not need Florida, OR Ohio and Missouri, OR Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado!

The point is that Obama has many scenarios to win, and it is very hard to imagine that all of the above combinations of states will go to a Republican party as right wing and divided as it now is, demonstrated even more by the debacle over the middle class tax cut continuation, leading to a split between Republicans in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

So Obama supporters need to work hard, but the future looks bright!

The “Last Stand” Of Jon Huntsman: New Hampshire Primary

Ronald Leave a comment

Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, seen by many political experts as easily the best candidate the Republican Party has to offer for President, has been languishing all along in the polls since his announcement in June of this year, usually with no more than three percent.

It is clear that he has little hope of doing well in Iowa or South Carolina, and is unlikely at this point to do well in Florida, but that reality COULD change IF Huntsman can follow through and win the New Hampshire primary on January 10, one month from now.

However, at present, in the latest polls from CNN, Huntsman scores only eight percent in New Hampshire, behind front runner Mitt Romney having 35 percent, Newt Gingrich having 26 percent, and Ron Paul 17 percent, meaning 78 percent of the voters are locked up at this point by Huntsman’s opponents.

It looks highly unlikely that Huntsman can recover, but if he does, it could affect Florida. If neither happens, Huntsman may as well look ahead to 2016, with him being the only candidate in the present race who could be seen as legitimate in 2016.

Mitt Romney’s Attack On The “Entitlement” Society Speech Of Barack Obama

Ronald Leave a comment

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, in trouble in the public opinion polls in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida, states in which former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich leads by growing margins, is obviously very desperate!

So he lashed into President Obama today for his Osawatomie, Kansas speech, in which Obama invoked the New Nationalism and Square Deal concepts of Republican President Theodore Roosevelt, who made progressivism fashionable at the beginning of the 20th century.

Romney, who was born to wealth, and is estimated to be worth at least $250 million dollars, certainly feels “entitled” to use his wealth and privilege to run for President, even though he has never had to struggle for anything in his life!

Not everyone is so fortunate to be born into such good circumstances, and one would think that Romney would feel like many other wealthy people, that he needs to “give back” to those less fortunate, rather than take a hard hearted attitude toward those who don’t have the advantages that he and his wife and five sons have!

For a man of religion, who is proud of his Mormon faith, he seems unconcerned about the struggles of those on the lower end of the social scale, which is ironic, because Christianity broadly teaches that we must come to the aid of others, and Romney says he is a “good Christian”, even though many consider the Mormons to be a religious cult.

The point is that with his good fortune since birth, and his supposedly strong religious convictions, Romney should wish to help others get some of the “entitlement” that he was born to, but NO, instead, he appeals to the selfish, self centered nature of someone who is arrogant and looks down on the poor, all for political advantage in a party which has sold out completely to religious hypocrites and wealthy people and corporations!

What are all Americans entitled to?

1. A decent educational opportunity to achieve all that one can in pursuit of a better life and job career.
2. A decent health care system which allows everyone to get appropriate, quality attention from doctors, nurses, and hospitals.
3. A decent housing situation, which promotes a sense of security and safety from harm.
4. A government which treats everyone on an equal basis, not victimizing those who are different in race, ethnicity, nationality, gender, or sexual orientation.
5. Respect for the elderly, and proper treatment of them in their twilight years.
6. Protection of the childhood of the younger generation, and encouragement of the accomplishment of their goals to grow up happy, secure, and pursue their dreams.
7. Respect for and protection of the disabled among us, giving them maximum opportunity for as normal a life as possible.
8. Protection of the environment, and promotion of consumer rights to avoid harm to the population.
9. Enforcement of the civil liberties of all Americans, preventing an oppressive government over our private lives and our public activities.
10. Protection of our nation from the abuse of corporations who are more concerned about profit than people.

These points above are “entitlements” that should come with being an American, not just based on how much money one has or inherits! Equality and justice are essential to keep the “American Dream” alive!

Mitt Romney, His Auto Bailout Opposition, And The Midwest In The 2012 Election

Ronald Leave a comment

Mitt Romney, when all is said and done, is likely to be the Republican Presidential nominee, but he will have a great deal of trouble winning the “swing states” in the Midwest and even in Pennsylvania, because of his strong stand against the auto industry bailout pursued by President Barack Obama in 2009.

Romney, whose father was an auto executive and Governor of Michigan in the 1960s, strongly opposed any bailout and called for bankruptcy in very clear cut terms.

This will come back to haunt him in the campaign, and tonight, at the CNBC debate in Michigan, the state in which he was born, Romney will be confronted with the issue of the auto industry revival, with more than 1.4 million jobs saved, not only in Michigan, but also in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota, all “swing states” which are appreciative that Obama did not give up on the industry.

It was not only the auto industry itself, but satellite industries that supply parts and service for the auto industry, that won out by Obama coming to their aid.

The auto companies are paying back the loans, and the American economy, as bad as it is, would be far worse off if Barack Obama had not had the courage to do what he did.

Mitt Romney’s stand, which he cannot revoke, unlike other issues that he flip flops on regularly, will ultimately defeat him in the Presidential Election of 2012!