Hispanics

Four “McCain” States Which Could Be Won By Barack Obama In 2012

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A lot of attention is being given to the idea that President Barack Obama could lose some of the “swing states” that he won in the Presidential Election of 2008–including Virginia, North Carolina and Florida in the South; New Hampshire and Pennsylvania in the Northeast; Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota in the Midwest; and Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada in the Mountain West.

While it is true that he could lose some of these states, what is less recognized and talked about is the potential for Barack Obama to win FOUR states which went to John McCain–Georgia with 16 electoral votes, Missouri with 10 electoral votes, Arizona with 11 electoral votes, and Texas with 38 electoral votes–therefore a possible total of 75 electoral votes!

This is not saying Obama is certain to win any of the four states listed above, but it is POSSIBLE, primarily because of the growing Hispanic and Latino population in Georgia, Arizona and Texas, and because Missouri was lost by only about 4,000 votes! Missouri is the state which has always gone with the winner in Presidential elections since 1900, with only two exceptions–1956 when Adlai Stevenson defeated President Eisenhower by about 4,000 votes, and then in 2008 when Senator John McCain also won by about 4,000 votes over President Obama!

The odds would seem better in Missouri first and Georgia second, much less likely in Arizona, and a long shot in Texas. Certainly, in theory, these states are much more likely to go Democratic in future years, as the Republicans are losing the future with their anti immigrant philosophy and rhetoric.

So the Presidential Election of 2012 has not only FOURTEEN states as “swing states”, but also possibly another FOUR, making it a total of EIGHTEEN states which will be the focus of most of the political campaigning and advertising over the next eleven months!

The Ultimate Reason Why The Republican Party Will NOT Win The White House In 2012: Their Promotion Of Nativism, Prejudice, Bias, Fear, And The Interests Of The Super Wealthy!

Ronald 1 Comment

When all is said and done, the Republican Party will NOT win the White House in 2012, no matter what the economic situation is next year, because of their promotion of nativism, prejudice, bias, fear, and the interests of the Super Wealthy!

The Republican Party promotes nativism against Hispanic and Latino immigrants with their advocacy of deporting 12 million undocumented immigrants, almost all law abiding, tax paying, and living here for many years, who just want the “American Dream”, and are willing to work hard.

The Republican Party advocates prejudice against gay people by advocating against gay rights, gay marriage, and gay parenting, due to their slavish connection to religious influence in government.

The Republican Party supports bias against women by denying them their human rights, including the decision when and how they can have children.

The Republican Party promotes fear of all people of Islamic heritage by their depiction of all people from that religious heritage as being potential terrorists.

The Republican Party supports the interests of the super wealthy by refusal to consider any tax increases on the top two percent, who have seen their wealth multiply in recent years, while everyone else saw their income stagnate or decline. They will do anything to support the rich and the corporations.

Has a political party ever won the White House with promotion of nativism, prejudice, bias, fear, and the interests of the wealthy? The answer is NO, with the borderline closest cases being Richard Nixon in 1968 and George W. Bush in 2004, but even they did not advocate these ugly concepts on the level of Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney in the campaign now being waged!

Notice that the only GOP candidate who has NOT promoted the above ideas is Jon Huntsman, by far the best and ONLY decent choice they offer the voters in 2012. Again, IF Huntsman were the nominee, it would be the most legitimate and closest race for the Presidency, but apparently, very unlikely to happen, as the author writes.

Alarming Rise In White Supremacist Groups Since 2009

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The issue of white supremacist groups has always been worrisome in America, but the growth of such movements has multiplied since the inauguration of President Barack Obama in January 2009.

In less than three years, the number of white supremacist groups has gone up more than five hundred percent, from 149 to a new total of 824.

This is a very disturbing, but truthfully, not surprising trend, but it demonstrates how long a road we have to go to overcome hate and prejudice in this country.

Of course, this growth is not just about African Americans, but also Hispanics, Latinos, immigrants in general, with the general mood in politics being one of promoting fear and hatred, particularly in the heartland of the nation, as well as in the Republican Party!

The Electoral College Reality In 2012–Eleven States Can Win The Presidency Theoretically

Ronald 1 Comment

As a result of changes in the Electoral College, due to population growth, in theory eleven states, if won by one candidate for the Presidency, can determine the election, no matter what the popular vote totals.

The eleven largest states add up to exactly the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House lease for the next four years.

In order, these states are:

California 55
Texas 38
New York 29
Florida 29
Pennsylvania 20
Illinois 20
Ohio 18
Michigan 16
Georgia 16
North Carolina 15
New Jersey 14

Therefore, 3 Northeastern states, 3 Midwestern states, 4 Southern states, and one Western state make up enough electoral votes to determine the winner.

Of course, no one can expect in this or any election that either candidate will win ALL of these states, but at this point a year before the election, only Texas seems out of reach for Barack Obama.

The states that seem certain for him would include: California, New York, Illinois and New Jersey.

The states that he won in 2008 that are “battleground” states in 2012 are Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and North Carolina.

Georgia along with Texas went to John McCain in 2008, but Georgia, with its growing Hispanic population, could go to Obama in a close race, although Texas still seems a few elections away before the Hispanic vote can tip the state “blue”

Of course, other states NOT in the top eleven will be important, including Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), Indiana (11), Missouri (10), and Washington (12), all of which Obama won in 2008, except for the very close election in Missouri.

So out of all the states mentioned above, Obama ONLY lost Texas, Georgia, and Missouri (closely).

So Obama ONLY lost three of the top 17 states, with a 2012 total of 64 electoral votes, in 2008

If Obama wins all of the states he has won before, he would have a total of 272 electoral votes, and this does NOT include states such as Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, and Hawaii, all of which he won in 2008!

Any way one looks at it, Barack Obama has a great electoral vote advantage for 2012, one year before the election, and it is hard to imagine him losing enough states to a divided, confused Republican Party that has no strong, knowledgeable, principled leader found in any one person running for the nomination!

Rush Limbaugh And Other Conservatives Come To Defense Of Herman Cain And Marco Rubio: The Question Is Why?

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Conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh and all of the other talk shows hosts of the conservative brand on talk radio and Fox News Channel have rushed to the defense of Herman Cain and Marco Rubio, both of whom have ethical issues that are glaring.

Herman Cain has been accused of sexual harassment, a la Clarence Thomas, and already the chant is, as Thomas called it twenty years ago, that a “high tech lynching” is going on !

In other words, if a conservative African American is involved in inappropriate behavior, suddenly conservatives become “open minded” on the issue of race while utilizing it regularly against President Barack Obama. And also realize that Cain has been accused now of financial misconduct in the manner of raising money for his campaign, all this on top of his constant inconsistency on every issue that is brought up in his campaign.

At the same time, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has clearly lied about his family’s reason for coming to America from Cuba, manufacturing the false story that they were escaping Fidel Castro, who only came to power two and a half years after his family migrated to the United States. Rubio gained much of his support based on this false family history, but to conservatives, that does not matter, and they come rushing to his defense, while showing anti Latino and anti Hispanic sympathies on the issue of immigration on a regular basis on their radio and television shows.

What hypocrisy, and it is clear the reason for backing these two men is not just because they agree with their political positions, but also as a way to deflect charges of anti black, anti Hispanic, and anti immigrant actions and statements!

Herman Cain and Erick Erickson And The Republicans: Reverse Robin Hood!

Ronald 1 Comment

Herman Cain promotes his 9-9-9 plan, which economists tell us will tax the poor, the sick, the disabled, and the elderly more, while lowering the tax liability of the wealthy much more than it is today!

Erick Erickson, the conservative blogger, mouths what most conservatives and Republicans say, that the 47 percent of the population who do not pay federal income tax need to start paying, and stop expecting the other 53 percent to carry the burden.

The fact that the 47 percent who do not pay federal income taxes DO pay federal payroll taxes in the form of Social Security and Medicare, and also pay state and local income taxes and sales taxes is not considered.

The fact that most of this 47 percent are poor and getting poorer, or are sick, disabled, or elderly is not considered!

There is no consideration of the fact that the wealthy top one percent have 40 percent of the national income!

There is no consideration that the average person of African American or Hispanic ancestry has just FIVE percent of the assets of the average white person!

The fact that millions of Americans are losing their homes, their jobs, and their pensions is not considered, as long as the wealthy are allowed to keep their assets and continue them on the growth pattern.

The conservatives and Republicans are like Scrooge in the Christmas Carol of Charles Dickens.

And they will call themselves “good Christians” while condemning the poor, the disabled, the sick, and the elderly.

In summary, Herman Cain, Erick Erickson and their ilk are modern day Robin Hoods in reverse–taking from those down and out, and giving MORE to the rich and powerful!

Do these people have any soul, any ethics, any morality? How can they often quote the Old and New Testaments in the name of their selfishness and greed?

The whole situation is mind boggling!

Alabama’s Harsh Immigration Law: Worse Than Arizona And Revives Old Memories Of Alabama’s Horrid Racial History!

Ronald 1 Comment

Alabama has managed to take some attention off Arizona’s disgraceful immigration law, as its own legislation, put into effect on October 1, although being contested in the courts by the federal government, has already undermined its image to anyone who has a sense of justice and decency and fairness!

Reports of Hispanic immigrants fleeing, leaving their homes and possessions behind, and of children suddenly withdrawing from school , paint a picture that reminds us of Alabama’s past history of racial discrimination and violence, only possibly matched or surpassed in the South by Mississippi!

Only about 4.2 percent of Alabama’s population are undocumented immigrants, and there is no indication that there has been a problem of crime due to them being present in the state.

There are reports of pregnant women afraid to go to the hospital and of crime victims fearful of going to the police.

At the same time, harvest of agricultural crops in the state has declined dramatically, and much of the produce will rot for lack of people willing to do the work, so the economy of one of the poorest states will become worse, because of this draconian law!

The legislation makes illegal immigrants unable to enter contracts; be employed; rent housing; or gain government services. It makes these unfortunate victims unable to work, unable to gain education, unable to protect themselves from being victimized, and puts them in poverty with a sense of no ability to relate to their neighbors or any social institutions.

Fortunately, many church leaders have protested, and the federal government is actively pursuing action, but what is needed now is a court injunction to prevent further enforcement until the case comes to court! This legislation is inhumane, and a violation of human rights on a grand scale!

The Flaws Of A Mitt Romney Presidential Candidacy

Ronald 1 Comment

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has many virtues, many positives, that should make him a model candidate for the White House, including:

1. Strong business background with Bain Capital and as head of the Salt Lake City Olympics Committee for 2002.
2. Promoted a health care plan in Massachusetts which is seen as a major success by many.
3. Bright, intelligent, photogenic candidate, with great family image, including his wife and five sons.
4. Knowledgeable about economic matters, and seen as Presidential caliber in many people’s minds.
5. Has presented good body language in debates and has greater potential to appeal to moderates, Independents, and conservative Democrats.

Despite all of the above, there are a long list of flaws that will make it difficult for Romney to win the GOP nomination for President, and if he does, to win the election over President Barack Obama. Among them are :

1. Romney comes across as a chameleon, a person who is constantly over the years changing his views on many issues, seen as originally a moderate and trying to paint himself as a conservative–therefore perceived as a phony candidate, and a “flip flopper”!
2. Romney was not well liked personally by his opponents in the 2008 Presidential race, particularly John McCain and Mike Huckabee, and is not even now well liked by the Bush clan and other Establishment Republicans.
3. Romney is not well regarded by evangelical Christians, a large group in primaries and caucuses, because of his Mormon faith, and one wonders could he win the “Bible Belt” South and Great Plains, areas usually Republican. but seeing Mormons as a cult, and not Christian!
4. All through the race for the GOP nomination, despite Romney showing the best ability in polls to compete with President Obama, there has been a constant search for an alternative, whether Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman, and now Chris Christie, not a sign of much feeling of emotion or passionate feelings of love for Romney.
5. Romney has shown insensitivity toward average people, by joking that he is unemployed; by talking about his Cadillacs collection; and by having a project to increase the size of his home to a mansion at a time when many are losing their own homes. Being the richest candidate in the race may give him a money edge, but he comes across as not understanding the problems of the middle class!
6. Despite his recent improved debate performances, Romney still has an image of being stiff, uncomfortable in his own skin, not totally relaxed, and not truly knowing how to deal with irate questioners at rallies, and with strong criticism. It makes one wonder would he be able to work well with Congress, whether his own party or the opposition, with so little political experience, only one term as Governor, and thinking his lack of a career in politics is a plus, which it really is not!
7. Romney’s ability to get people out to vote for him is doubtful, since he does not evoke strong feelings of support, and his poll numbers are still seen as very soft.
8. Romney’s attempt to steer clear of the Tea Party Movement makes one wonder if he could ever work well with fellow Republicans, who in many cases would be much further to the right politically than he would feel comfortable being himself, once in office.
9. Can a candidate from the Northeast, the stronghold of Barack Obama, have any opportunity to defeat him in any scenario that would add up to 270 electoral votes? That seems highly doubtful, as in many ways, Romney comes across as somewhat distant in the same way as two past Massachusetts Democrats who ran for President had trouble overcoming–Michael Dukakis in 1988 and John Kerry in 2004. Those two who lost to father and son Bush did not face a man with the charisma and emotional feelings of support that Barack Obama has had, and even in bad times, still has to some extent today!
10. By coming out hard line against immigration reform that allows illegal immigrants and their children a path to citizenship, Romney, like other Republicans, is losing the future, as Hispanic population and voter participation is growing in the Southwest and across the nation, and they are not likely to throw support to a candidate who demeans them and treats them as not deserving of respect and empathy for their futures in America!

There are probably other points that could be made, but it is clear that Mitt Romney has major flaws in so many ways that his candidacy for President is going to require a lot of luck and good fortune for him to end up in the Oval Office!

A Sobering Labor Day: Bad Times For Labor Unions And Workers!

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As Labor Day 2011 comes on tomorrow, it is a sobering time for labor unions and workers, whether in unions or not.

Labor unions have been under sharp and sustained attack across America, continuing a 30 year decline beginning under Ronald Reagan.

Workers’ wages are stagnant or declining in purchasing power, and most employees know they are in a weak state, afraid of antagonizing management in a time of extremely high unemployment, where any problems created with employers can lead to quick unemployment lines.

With 9.1 percent official unemployment in August, and absolutely no job growth at all, for the first time since February 1945, there is great fear among the unemployed, as well as those who have jobs, that the labor situation is going to get worse before it gets better.

African Americans have an unemployment rate nearing 17 percent, and Hispanics and Latinos have over 12 percent, and people without a college degree have about 9.5 percent, while college graduates actually have only about a 4.5 percent unemployment rate.

So race and ethnicity and lack of adequate education are key factors in unemployment. But also, alarmingly, many people between 50-60 years of age are experiencing long term unemployment for the first time in their adult lives, with little opportunity to retrieve an equivalent job and salary anytime, and with Social Security and Medicare still years away from occurring.

Also, while the unemployment rate remains stagnant at 9.1 percent, the REAL unemployment rate of those with only part time hours added to those who have no work, is closer to 18 percent, an unacceptable and dangerous number!

We must not forget that it is young people, plus discontented older people, who have led for change in the “Arab Spring”, and also now are demanding major change in government policies in our Mideast ally, Israel.

How much longer can labor conditions continue the way they are going without a reaction which might include radical action, some of it violent or incendiary?

So the urgency of a serious jobs program by Barack Obama, and cooperation by Congress is needed, but not likely due to the divided Congress, and the power of the Tea Party Movement, which wants no government involvement in creating jobs!

So crisis conditions and divisions are bound to get worse very soon, a troubling scenario!

Early Speculation On The Vice Presidency: Marco Rubio And Bob McDonnell

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As the battle for the Republican Presidential nomination heats up, speculation is beginning as to who the nominee’s running mate might be, and most of the attention is focusing on two Southerners, one in the US Senate, and one who is Governor.

Many are saying that newly elected Senator Marco Rubio of Florida is the front runner, with his good looks, his youth (40), Tea Party support, Hispanic heritage (Cuban), his speaking ability, and his representing the fourth largest state in population and electoral votes. Rubio, although only in the Senate for seven and a half months, had a distinguished career in the Florida House of Representatives, including being its Speaker, and knows how to raise money, and to appeal to Hispanic voters, a key voting bloc in Florida and elsewhere.

At the same time, Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia appeals to many as a conservative who avoids controversy and direct connection to the Tea Party Movement, but saying and doing the right things to avoid antagonizing them or conservatives in general, and no one doubts his conservative credentials. He is handsome, well spoken, and represents a swing state, much like Florida, which is crucial to the Republican Party’s chances to win in 2012. McDonnell is also the present Chair of the Republican Governors Association, and is term limited to one term by Virginia state law, to the end of 2013, so would certainly be looking for a role beyond then, and the Vice Presidency would be very enticing!

Both Florida and Virginia went to Barack Obama in 2008, making both of them battlegrounds in 2012. So the odds seem good that either Rubio or McDonnell are the most likely VP nominees for whoever is the GOP nominee for President in 2012.