Gary Johnson

Final Projection On Presidential Race: Obama-Biden 332 Electoral Votes, Romney-Ryan 206 Electoral Votes

Ronald 6 Comments

This author has spent a lot of time and effort in studying, analyzing, evaluating the Presidential Election contest of 2012, and is now ready to project the final result.

Barack Obama has been long predicted to win at least 237 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 191 electoral votes, with nine states in play as “swing” or “battleground” states, all of which Obama won in 2008.

The prediction that the author wishes to make is that Obama will win ALL of the nine competitive states, except North Carolina, giving him 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206 electoral votes!

So Obama will win New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado, with a total of 95 electoral votes, added to the 237, making the final total of 332 electoral votes.

Romney, by winning the 15 electoral votes of North Carolina, will go from 191 to 206 in the final total of electoral votes.

It also means that Obama will have won every state he won in 2008, except Indiana and North Carolina, and a total of 26 states and the District of Columbia. Romney will win 24 states.

Also, expect that the popular vote will be close in North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Montana, with Romney winning, but with hints that Democrats will have a grand opportunity to win those states in 2016 and beyond, with the growing Hispanic-Latino vote. The first hint will be the likely victories for the Senate of Democrats Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Richard Carmona in Arizona.

Additionally, Obama should win about 52 percent of the vote to 47 percent of the vote for Romney, with Gary Johnson and other third party candidates winning slightly more than one percent of the total vote.

This means Obama will have won by a slightly smaller percentage of the popular vote and fewer electoral votes, but with the factor of reapportionment of seats due to the Census of 2010 changing downward many of the Frost Belt states which support Barack Obama, plus the loss of North Carolina and Indiana from 2008.

Still, overall, a very impressive performance can be expected!

Comments on this projection of the results are welcome!

Gary Johnson And Virgil Goode Could Siphon Support For Mitt Romney In Several “Swing” States

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Gary Johnson is the former Republican New Mexico Governor, and Libertarian Party candidate for President. He is also on the ballot in 47 states.

Virgil Goode is a former Republican Congressman from a district in Virginia, and Constitution Party candidate for President. He is also on the ballot in two dozen states.

Johnson is believed to have support in New Mexico, Montana, Nevada and Colorado, while Goode is thought to have support in Virginia.

Notice that these are all considered “swing” states, although New Mexico has been seen as less so than it once was, and is generally not included in recent months as being in that category. And Montana is one of those few states thought to be Republican, but with some possibility of switching to the Democrats.

But also notice that all of these states are now considered to be in favor of Barack Obama, except Montana.

So the question arises, will these former Republicans hurt Romney enough that he loses these “swing” states and even Montana, or will Obama win even with some support for Johnson and Goode in these states?

In other words, can Johnson and Goode end up for Romney as Ralph Nader was for Al Gore in 2000, the difference in votes that caused Gore’s defeat for President?

It will be interesting to see if either or both third party candidates have a significant impact on the results of the election!

Growing Possibility Of Libertarian Gary Johnson Having Impact On Presidential Election Of 2012

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Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s Presidential candidate, is showing some strength in polls that indicates he could be the “spoiler” in the 2012 Presidential Election, similar to what Ralph Nader was in the Presidential Election of 2000.

The effect, if Johnson gained a few percent of the vote in “battleground” or “swing” states, would be most likely to hurt Mitt Romney, the Republican Presidential nominee, rather than Democrat Barack Obama, since it seems more likely that libertarian support would come from elements in the GOP.

So the thought is that Johnson could affect the vote in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada, and help, indirectly, President Obama to win those states, although right now, Obama has the edge in Virginia, Florida, and Nevada, and is slightly ahead in Colorado, while behind in North Carolina.

If Johnson can win 3-5 percent of the vote, he could go down in history as notable enough to be recorded as having affected the election, just as Ralph Nader in 2000.

Libertarian Gary Johnson For President: What Effect Might His Candidacy Have In 2012?

Ronald 6 Comments

Former New Mexico Republican Governor Gary Johnson is the candidate of the Libertarian Party for President in 2012.

Johnson has been pretty much ignored, and was only allowed in two GOP Presidential debates during the primary season.

Johnson, however, will be on the ballot in all 50 states, and the question is whether he could be an effective third party candidate, and be a threat to either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, and even reach the threshold of 15 percent required to be part of the three Presidential debates in September and October, as Ross Perot was able to accomplish in the 1992 Presidential campaign.

Right now, that possibility seems highly unlikely, but who knows what might transpire over the next three months, as disillusioned Americans might start to look at Gary Johnson’s candidacy!

Johnson’s views are a mix which COULD draw support from voters who are unhappy with Obama and Romney.

Among his views are:

Creating a balanced budget by cutting 43 percent of the Medicare and Medicaid budget in one year.
Abolishing the federal income and corporate taxes, and instituting a national sales tax based on consumption, instead.
Opposition to the ObamaCare legislation and the Prescription Drug Plan under George W. Bush.
Desire to withdraw from overseas engagements in Afghanistan and elsewhere, and was opposed to our involvement in Iraq and Libya from the beginning.
Opposition to the Patriot Act, and belief in civil liberties without interference by the American government.
Belief in states rights to deal with issues in their borders.
Opposition to abortion and the death penalty.
Belief in legalizing marijuana use, and the lowering of the drinking age, and believes the war on drugs has failed, and should be abandoned.
Opposition to measures for gun control legislation.
Belief that the Arizona law on illegal immigration was wrong, and would have vetoed it had it passed the legislature in New Mexico.
Support of same sex marriage and gay rights, including in the military.
Opposition to public funding of stem cell research.

This is a mix of issues that has the capacity to draw support , particularly among young people, and disillusioned voters with the major political parties.

So the question remains: Will Gary Johnson have an impact on the election, and if so, in what way?

The guess of the author is that Johnson could actually harm Mitt Romney in certain states, and possibly throw the election in those states to Barack Obama, including the states of Arizona, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, and Alaska, all states believed to be RED or Republican!

So Gary Johnson COULD effectively become the Ross Perot of 2012, even without gaining 19 percent of the total national vote, a feat only a wealthy person such as Ross Perot could manage. However, Gary Johnson is said to be worth about $40 million, not a measly amount, to say the least!

Two Former Governors As Third Party Candidates: Could It Affect The Presidential Election Results Of 2012?

Ronald 4 Comments

Just a few days after an post about the likelihood that no third party would have a significant effect on the Presidential Election of 2012, suddenly the possibility arises that while no candidate is likely to win a state or gain a large percentage of votes, a 2000 Presidential Election scenario, where two candidates had small numbers of votes and percentage, and yet helped to determine the electoral vote in Florida, and therefore decide the winner of the Presidency, presents itself!

In 2000, Ralph Nader ran as the Green Party candidate and won 2.74 percent of the national vote, and Pat Buchanan ran as the Reform Party candidate and won 0.43 percent of the vote. But in Florida, about 97,000 people voted for Nader; and in Palm Beach Country, Florida, about 3,400 people incorrectly voted for Buchanan over Al Gore, because of confusion about filling out the infamous “butterfly” ballot, throwing the election in Florida to George W. Bush, and deciding the election of Bush over Al Gore.

Well, in theory, the same situation could arise in 2012, although highly unlikely that “lightning” would strike for a second time in 12 years.

Having said that, neither Ralph Nader nor Pat Buchanan were officeholders, while this election, two former governors are running, and cannot , therefore, be ignored!

The Libertarian Party has just nominated former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, and the Reform Party is likely to nominate former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer in August at their convention in Philadelphia.

Just being governors gives them a lot of status and clout, so we cannot assume that they will have no effect on the election results, just hope and pray that that is so!

Six Months To Presidential Election Of 2012: No Signs Of Strong Third Party Movement!

Ronald 1 Comment

With six months to go to the Presidential Election of 2012, there are no signs of a strong third party movement occurring, which would have any dramatic effect on the election results.

Third parties in the past have had significance in election results, although never able to win the election.

This certainly proved true with the Free Soil Party of 1848, the Progressive Party of 1912, the American Independent Party in 1968, and the Reform Party of 1992.

And even in small ways, as in 2000, the candidacy of Ralph Nader, and even that of Pat Buchanan, had an effect on the race, particularly in Florida.

There is no such danger at this point, and with Mayor Michael Bloomberg making clear he is not running as an Independent, and instead allowing himself to be courted by both the Romney and Obama campaigns, there should be a major sigh of relief in both camps.

Yes, there will be third party candidates, but no one seriously is seen as a major figure, although it sometimes has seemed that Jon Huntsman, the former Utah Governor, might run, and Ron Paul, still technically in the race for the GOP Presidential nomination, has been rumored as a Libertarian Party candidate, as he was in 1988.

But realistically, the most “threatening” possible candidates are two former Governors who were ignored in the Republican race for President: former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer, and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson. Roemer might run as the Reform Party candidate, and Johnson as the Libertarian Party candidate

Virgil Goode, former Republican Congressman from Virginia, might be the Constitution Party candidate; Roseanne Barr, the comedian, might run as the Green Party candidate; and either Buddy Roemer or former Salt Lake City, Utah, Mayor Rocky Anderson might run on the Americans Elect (online nomination) Party, with Anderson also the candidate of the Justice Party.

Of course, there is always the possibility of Ralph Nader or Donald Trump or Jesse Ventura running, as they have often talked about, but with only Nader actually running just about every four years, making him, sadly, a joke at this point, when once he had real credibility.

The point is the likelihood of a third party or independent candidate having any impact on the election is close to zero at this point!

Speculation About Reported Alliance Between Mitt Romney And Ron Paul: Could It Lead To Rand Paul Being Vice Presidential Running Mate Of Romney?

Ronald Leave a comment

Political pundits, including Joe Scarborough of MORNING JOE on MSNBC, have noticed what seems like a warm friendship between two Republican Presidential candidates, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Texas Congressman Ron Paul.

It has become obvious that Ron Paul has spent a lot of money on attack ads in various states against Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, and now Rick Santorum, as each has become a major challenger to Mitt Romney. He has also attacked them on debate stages, as he did last night against Rick Santorum.

This seems very weird to many observers, as Mitt Romney is not a libertarian or a believer in the withdrawal of America’s involvement overseas, which Ron Paul stands for.

And Ron Paul is too old to be considered as a running mate, but then it is recognized that his son, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who is 49 years old, has already said he would be honored to be considered for Vice President, a very strong hint that a deal could be struck to put Rand Paul in the Vice Presidential slot as a way to unite diverse elements of the GOP for November.

In many ways, it would be a “shotgun marriage”, but not the first in American history, as for instance, the team of Franklin D. Roosevelt and John Nance Garner in 1932; the team of Dwight D. Eisenhower and Richard Nixon in 1952; the team of John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1960; and the team of Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush in 1980, were not based on close friendship or ties between the Presidential and Vice Presidential nominees. They were done for maximum political advantage.

The problem with this possibility of Mitt Romney teaming with Rand Paul is that it puts Rand Paul and his extremist libertarian philosophy a potential heartbeat away from the Presidency, although the positive side for Romney is that it makes a Libertarian Party challenger less likely or, at least, less able to draw away votes if there is one, such as former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson. Ron Paul has a lot of supporters, who could be drawn to support Mitt Romney, if he selected Rand Paul.

So this new rumor makes one think that it could be a way to help Romney clinch the nomination and have somewhat united support, but the thought of a possible President Rand Paul would be a radical change unacceptable to mainstream and centrist political attitudes.

Possible Plans Of Romney’s Opponents For The Republican Presidential Nomination

Ronald 1 Comment

As a result of the Mitt Romney win in Florida, many political observers can now sense the possibility of chaos in the Republican party, as the Panhandle area of Florida, the “Old South” area of Florida, voted heavily for Newt Gingrich. This can stir Gingrich to try to win all of the Southern primaries, and have, at the least, a regional base for his Presidential campaign.

Gingrich, angry at the Romney negative campaign against him in Florida, is also now hinting that he will run a campaign to appeal to the American people, rather than the Republican Party, and that seems a strong hint that he might run as an independent in November, if he fails to win the GOP nomination.

Meanwhile, there is also the possibility of Texas Congressman Ron Paul also running in November as a libertarian candidate, and already, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who was a participant in two early debates, has dropped out and is a declared candidate for the Libertarian Party nomination.

Also, there seem to be hints that former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum seems ready to stay in the race, although he has not done well in South Carolina and Florida. It could be that Santorum really hopes that Gingrich will withdraw eventually, and that he could become the conservative alternative to Romney. Or it could be that Santorum is staying in to PREVENT Gingrich from having a chance to be the nominee, and that Romney will award him with the Vice Presidential nomination!

And of course, Donald Trump has also threatened to run as an independent in November, if he is displeased with the ultimate nominee of the party.

These scenarios could work out to be false, but they certainly seem plausible at this point, and add to the interest in the Presidential campaign!

The Fox News Channel-Google Republican Debate: More Of The Same!

Ronald 1 Comment

The third Republican debate in two weeks in Orlando, Florida, witnessed no surprises, as Rick Perry and Mitt Romney remained the clear front runners, but it seemed to the author that Romney may have made some headway and gained on Perry, as a result of Romney’s strong responses to various Perry challenges, and Perry’s seeming inability to look directly at Romney while speaking!

The race still seems to be primarily between those two men, but again Jon Huntsman gave some strong answers, and his sudden surge in New Hampshire to third place in percentage of poll support behind Romney and Perry makes him someone worth watching. It was clear to the author of this blog that Huntsman is, in many ways, the most interesting candidate in the race, someone to watch!

The only other candidate who came across strongly was Newt Gingrich, who is obviously very smart and knowledgeable. If that were all that could be said about Gingrich, he would be in good stead, but his own shortcomings and ethical and moral lapses weaken him as a candidate, while making one realize that in pure intellect, he is at the top of the list!

Rick Santorum came across as worse just by his stated desire to reverse “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell”, adding to his “gay” problem which has dogged him all along, and led to his name becoming a synonym for a sex act, all due to his own fault and total obsession with homosexuality.

Michele Bachmann was more on the offensive against Perry, the person who has most weakened her since he entered the race over a month ago, but did not seem to gain at all in her quest to be taken seriously again. And her suggestion that Americans should not have to pay taxes, keep all their money, was totally ridiculous!

Ron Paul came across as what he is, a libertarian, but despite polls, cannot be seen as having a real shot at the nomination of a party which dislikes much of what he believes in.

Herman Cain gained sympathy over the revelation that he had survived for five years since having stage 4 colon and liver cancer, but quite frankly, made one wonder about the wisdom of a person running for President with such a medical past. The miracle of five years survival is wonderful, but makes one worry whether he would survive long enough to serve a full presidential term.

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, first time in the presidential debate, offered humor with some answers, but his strict libertarianism, competing with Ron Paul, came across as more whacky than even Paul, and is a minor figure in the race, good for libertarians, but enough to convince anyone that libertarianism is not where America should be heading!

So again, in conclusion, Romney gained, Perry may have lost some traction, and Huntsman seemed stronger and someone not to be disregarded.

No one made an impression that would make one want to say goodbye to Barack Obama in the White House!

The Internal Struggle In The Republican Party: Minnesota Vs. Mormonism!

Ronald Leave a comment

With the announcement today that Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels will not run for the Republican Presidential nomination, the race seems more than ever to be one of FOUR who are likely to dominate vote getting in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, the early primary and caucus states next winter!

As one looks at the field, it seems clear that Newt Gingrich has self destructed in his first week as an official candidate. Rick Santorum seems unlikely to take off as a candidate, based on his own past crazy statements and walloping defeat for re-election in Pennsylvania in 2006. Herman Cain, Gary Johnson, and even Ron Paul, will make noise, but are unlikely to poll many actual votes.

So unless someone such as Chris Christie or Jeb Bush suddenly enters the race belatedly, there seem to be four major contenders for actual popular vote support in the primaries and the caucuses early on–Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman, and surprisingly, Michele Bachmann!

Bachmann is the favorite of the Tea Party people, more even than Ron Paul, who is seen as too old and flaky to be much of a vote getter. Even though she is outrageous in her statements and actions, Bachmann is likely to have a serious following in Iowa at the least, and could affect who of the other candidates benefits by her candidacy.

Bachmann, being from Minnesota, and therefore from the Midwest, poses a real challenge to former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who has been very careful to avoid outrageous statements and actions, and yet is competing for the Tea Party support and for the backing of Midwesterners. Iowa is a crucial state to both, so they are therefore at loggerheads as Bachmann could ruin Pawlenty’s chances. So expect the beginning soon of sustained attacks by each on the other, and increasingly so, as the campaign gets closer to the first vote test in Iowa, which has many evangelical Christians and Tea Party people, and will likely kill off either Bachmann or Pawlenty. So it is the battle of Minnesotan vs. Minnesotan!

But the 2012 race is also of Mormon vs. Mormon, as Jon Huntsman, former Governor of Utah, and seen as a moderate to some extent, is challenging Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts, who is also often seen as a moderate. Both are working very hard to wipe such ideas out of voters’ minds, as both oppose health care and support Medicare reform along the lines of the Paul Ryan Budget plan. Both are much more electible on paper, but being Mormons and having the old image of moderation could harm both, and certainly, one will be hurt by the success of the other.

What is likely is that the nomination will come down to Pawlenty vs. one of the two Mormon politicians, with Huntsman being newer and fresher and more interesting a candidate.

So the final struggle is likely to be Pawlenty vs. Huntsman, and it would seem likely that Pawlenty would have the edge, but only if he can overcome the influence of Bachmann with Tea Party faithful.

For the election, Huntsman or even Romney would be a better bet to win than Pawlenty, but the Tea Party influence is such that the bet would be that Pawlenty will be the sacrificial lamb, with the likelihood that Barack Obama would win a major victory, possibly on the level of George H. W. Bush over Michael Dukakis in 1988!