Electoral College

Major Florida Factor Often Not Considered: The Puerto Rican, And Other Non Cuban Hispanic Vote

Ronald Leave a comment

As the battle for Florida’s electoral votes goes on, many observers are failing to realize the possible influence of the massively increased Puerto Rican population, particularly in the major area of significance, Central Florida.

Often, many people assume that the Hispanic vote is mostly Cuban, and that they, of course, traditionally vote Republican because of the failure of John F. Kennedy to eliminate Fidel Castro at the Bay of Pigs in 1961.

But in recent years, the Puerto Rican population in the state of Florida, and particularly, in Central Florida, has ballooned to nearly match or surpass the Cuban population found mostly in South Florida.

There are nearly a million Puerto Ricans in Florida, a state that is always rapidly changing, and becoming more non Cuban Hispanic by the month.

The Puerto Ricans of Florida, with smaller numbers in the past, supported the election and reelection of Governor Jeb Bush, but they went to Barack Obama for President in 2008, and are seen as likely, by large percentages, to vote for him again. The key, as always, will be voter turnout.

Additionally, there are a growing number of Hispanics from other nations in the Western Hemisphere, and the tendency of many would be to support Obama, although the very religious element, against abortion and gay marriage, might not, but the point being made here is that to assume, because of some polls at the moment, that Mitt Romney has Florida locked up, with its 29 electoral votes, is a massive mistake, as Florida will be in play, and may well decide who is the next President. And realize that younger Cuban Americans, in many cases, are abandoning the Republican beliefs of their parents and grandparents, and some will vote for Barack Obama!

And remember, with the biggest prize of the “swing” states, 29 electoral votes, Florida may select Barack Obama for a second term, and without the intervention of the Supreme Court for George W. Bush, as in the Presidential Election of 2000!

Electoral College Majority For Obama Edges Closer By The Day

Ronald 14 Comments

The standard belief has been that Barack Obama has 237 electoral votes, and Mitt Romney has 191 electoral votes.

But now, two states have been “awarded”, meaning it is felt that each candidate has gained one of them–Nevada with six electoral votes for Obama, and North Carolina with 15 electoral votes for Romney.

So one can now say that the electoral vote total is 243 for Obama and 206 for Romney, with seven states still in play.

But, this author feels it is closer than that to 270 electoral votes for Obama.

Wisconsin seems certain for Obama, and New Hampshire also seems likely, so if they are counted, with 10 and 4 electoral votes, respectively, Obama would have 257 electoral votes, only 13 short of the 270 needed to win the Presidency!

So the remaining battlegrounds are Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado, and even Iowa with six electoral votes seems likely Obama territory, so imagine adding Iowa, and we have 263 electoral votes, seven short of the number needed!

Every indication is that, despite supposedly close polls in percentage of popular votes, the tide is clearly in Obama’s camp, and don’t be surprised if he wins ALL of the remaining states—Ohio, Colorado, Virginia and Florida, in that order of probability!

The Ultimate “Firewall” For Barack Obama: The Midwest

Ronald Leave a comment

This author has commented before about the fact that the Midwest, an area of declining electoral votes and representation in Congress, because of the rapid migration from the “Frost Belt” to the “Sun Belt”, remains an area that has had a dramatic effect on American politics and Presidential elections.

Ohio and Missouri have been the ultimately accurate states to predict elections, with Missouri only voting with the loser twice—1956 and 2008—and Ohio, also only twice with the loser—1944 and 1960—since 1900.

And now, with Obama clearly winning Michigan, Minnesota, and Illinois, and seemingly ahead in Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin, the President could afford to lose the three Southern states he won in 2008—Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina—and still win the Electoral College.

With 237 electoral votes in Obama’s camp, and only needing 33 more, Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin would give him 34, raising his total to 271, exactly what George W. Bush won in 2008, against Al Gore, who won the national popular vote by more than 500,000 votes.

With some observers seeing a popular vote surge to Mitt Romney, we could be witnessing a scenario of the same situation as in 2000- –the winner of the electoral vote NOT winning the popular vote, which would make it the fifth time in history, and the second time in 12 years, that such a situation occurred.

The difference is that this time the Democrat will have benefited, while the last time, the Republican benefited.

In a way, if that happened, it would be “justice” for Al Gore supporters and Democrats!

However, it would also lead to growing demands to change the Constitution and get rid of the Electoral College, with the reality being that the likelihood of such a change is near zero!

Positive Signs For The Obama Campaign And The Democrats

Ronald Leave a comment

With 23 days to go to the Presidential Election of 2012, the situation is improving for the Democrats and Barack Obama.

The evidence includes the following:

Joe Biden went on the offensive against Paul Ryan, and demonstrated the falsehoods and deceptions promoted by Ryan and his running mate, Mitt Romney.

Barack Obama is working more diligently at debate preparation, and the Town Hall format of the second Presidential debate at Hofstra University in New York on Tuesday favors his strengths, as compared to Romney.

Early voting statistics in Ohio indicate a massive lead for Obama, a very encouraging development. And no Republicans has ever won the Presidency without Ohio, and the Electoral College still favors the President in most scenarios, as he only needs to win two to three of nine states considered “swing” states, to secure 270 electoral votes.

The Democratic Congressional Committee raised twice the amount of the National Republican Congressional Committee in August.

The Obama campaign has gained a grand total of 4 million contributors to their effort, the most in history.

Many incumbent Republicans are facing tough reelection campaigns, including Michele Bachmann, Steve King, Joe Walsh, Eric Cantor, Allen West, and even Paul Ryan.

The odds of a continued Senate majority for the Democrats are increasing.

The chances of a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives are also increasing, with Democrats rating higher in public opinion polls about Congress, than the Republicans.

Of course, the situation will remain fluid, and there could be last minute changes, but right now, things look promising on all fronts!

The State Of The Electoral College 26 Days Before The Election: Obama Wins By More Narrow Margin!

Ronald 2 Comments

There has been a lot of hysteria and panic about Barack Obama, as a result of his sub par performance in the first Presidential debate last week.

But even before the Vice Presidential debate tonight between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan, and next Tuesday’s second Presidential debate between Obama and Mitt Romney, when one thinks clearly and calms down, it is clear that Barack Obama is going to win the election, and that the Electoral College, which elects our Presidents, is favorable to him.

This has been discussed before by this blogger, and certainly the math of the Electoral College is in flux, but still the odds are heavily in favor or Obama winning!

Let’s start with the reality, that Obama has 237 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win, and anyone who hallucinates that somehow, the states that he is seen as having certain in his camp will magically switch to Romney, needs a dose of reality!

Obama will win the entire Northeast (except possibly New Hampshire); Illinois, Michigan and Minnesota in the Midwest; New Mexico; the Pacific Coast; and Hawaii. This is a total of 18 states and the District of Columbia. No money is being spent by the Romney campaign in these states, as Romney alienated Michigan in calling for the bankruptcy of the auto industry, and Minnesota has never been seen as a state that was seriously a candidate to back Romney’s candidacy, although if former Governor Tim Pawlenty had been Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate, Minnesota might have been in play!

Everyone talks about “swing states”, and yes, there are nine of those up for grabs, but in four of them, Obama is favored because the unemployment rate is lower than the national average—New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Iowa–with a total of 41 electoral votes, which if added to the 237 for Obama, becomes a grant total of 278 electoral votes, 8 more than needed.

Iowa is sixth lowest unemployment rate with 5.5%; New Hampshire is seventh lowest with 5.7%; Virginia is tenth lowest with 5.9 %; and Ohio is 20th lowest with 7.2%. Additionally, Wisconsin is 25th lowest with 7.5%—all five of these states under the national rate of 7.8%!

Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada have higher unemployment rates, and therefore can be seen as much more difficult for Obama to win, particularly after the “bump” in some polls for Romney after the first Presidential debate.

So let’s assume the latter four states, and even Wisconsin (as the home of Paul Ryan) go to Romney. It still is not enough, as the most he would have then would be 260 electoral votes, ten short of the number needed to win the Presidency!

The Electoral College numbers are still subject to change over the next 26 days, but it is safe to say, that the LOW point is 278 electoral votes for Barack Obama from a total of 22 states and the District of Columbia, with still the potential for Obama to win all nine of the ‘swing states”, rather than four, and a grand high total of 347 electoral votes to 191 for Mitt Romney!

The Growing Possibility Of An Electoral College Landslide For Barack Obama!

Ronald Leave a comment

With the “47 Percent” statement of Mitt Romney plaguing him, and causing many Republican candidates to repudiate his assertions, as an attempt to save their own skins, and with polls showing a growing lead for Obama in all of the “swing states” except North Carolina, some observers are starting to wonder if we are at the beginning of an electoral vote landslide in 46 days!

Barack Obama won 28 states in 2008, and is now favored to win all of them except Indiana and North Carolina, but both of those states are now seen as possibly going his way, as they did in 2008.

Additionally, four states—Missouri, Arizona, Montana and Georgia—are thought to be prime Democratic territory in future Presidential elections, as their mix of population favors them turning “blue”, but some wonder if they could be swayed by Romney’s statement–alienating young people, senior citizens, women, labor, veterans, and African American and Hispanic-Latino voters– to come out in droves and turn those states prematurely Democratic.

All this–the potential for 32 states and the District of Columbia to vote for Obama–has already been stated by this author as conceivable, if not likely.

But now, the thought even goes further, as a contribution by someone on this blog believes it is possible to have an even greater landslide, with the potential, in this person’s mind, for Obama to win 44 states as the 44th President, matching electoral landslides for Presidents including Abraham Lincoln, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard Nixon, and Ronald Reagan!

This person feels only six states are safe for Romney–Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Utah, Wyoming and Idaho.

This author feels that this belief is too optimistic, and would add West Virginia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Arkansas, Nebraska , Kansas and Alaska to this list—making only 13 states truly safe now for Romney!

So this author would say that 37 states are possible–adding South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, North Dakota, and South Dakota to the potential list, due to the events of the Presidential campaign!

So were Obama to win all but the 13 states mentioned above, he would have a grand total of
462 electoral votes to 76 for Mitt Romney!

This is not likely, but it is possible, so stay tuned!

The Long Range Direction Of American Presidential Politics: Democratic Party Ascendancy!

Ronald 1 Comment

When one examines the move of the Republican Party toward the far Right, under the control of extremist elements, and only attracting white males in large numbers, whether wealthy or working class, a strange alliance to say the least, one realizes that the future direction of the nation, particularly on the Presidential level, is toward Democratic Party ascendancy in future Presidential elections.

Barack Obama is well on his way to a second term, as explained by the Electoral College math, and will win somewhere between 288 at the least, and 398 at the most, in electoral votes. He will win between 23 and 32 states, plus the District of Columbia.

With the Hispanic and Latino population growing by leaps and bounds, and continuing in that trend over the next decade, five states that conceivably could go to Obama in 2012, but probably won’t, will become more likely “blue” by 2016 and 2020—Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Arizona and Georgia.

But even those states that have a high unemployment rate now, which means they might go to Mitt Romney—Florida, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada—will most likely go Democratic in the future, due to their growing Hispanic and Latino population.

The four states that have lower than average unemployment rates and are seen as likely to go to President Obama—New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio, and Iowa—are also likely to go Democratic in future Presidential campaigns, with the higher Hispanic and Latino population there too!

So even if Obama cannot win the maximum of 32 states, future Democratic nominees for President have a good chance of winning that number of states, and therefore win overwhelmingly in the Electoral College!

And added to this is the state of Texas, which by 2020, if not 2016, could revert back to the Democratic Party because of the rapidly growing Hispanic and Latino population, making for a maximum potential of 33 states, plus the District of Columbia, and a potential grand total of 436 electoral votes out of 538, leaving only 102 electoral votes for the Republicans from 17 states—South Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, and Alaska!

Of course, the person who is the nominee, and the events at the time, will decide if the Democrats really can win all but 17 states, and all but 102 electoral votes,so nothing is guaranteed.

But if the Republican Party continues to alienate the Hispanic and Latino population, plus African Americans, women, young people who are socially liberal, senior citizens who are fearful of the GOP plans on Social Security and Medicare, environmentalists, labor supporters, gays and lesbians, and those against foreign interventions on a regular basis, then indeed the Democrats could become a majority in Presidential races, and have a greater chance of controlling Congress and many state legislatures in future decades!

“Swing” States Down To Eight, Narrowing Romney Chances Of Winning Presidency!

Ronald Leave a comment

The Mitt Romney Presidential campaign has decided to buy advertising time on television in only eight states, narrowing the chance that the former Massachusetts Governor can win the Presidency.

Eliminated as places of opportunity are Michigan, the birthplace and childhood of Romney, and the state that his father was Governor in the 1960s; Wisconsin, the birthplace and home of his running mate, Paul Ryan; and Pennsylvania, despite the well known white male battleground of western Pennsylvania, often thought to be an Achilles Heel for Barack Obama!

So what are the states still in play?

New Hampshire–4 electoral votes
Virginia–13 electoral votes
North Carolina–15 electoral votes
Florida–29 electoral votes
Ohio–18 electoral votes
Iowa–6 electoral votes
Colorado–9 electoral votes
Nevada–6 electoral votes

The total electoral votes in play are 100, while Obama leads with 247 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney has 191 electoral votes from 23 states. Remember that the winner of the election must have 270 electoral votes.

So, with the updated realities that even Romney’s advertising campaign reflects, Obama wins If

he wins Florida (29 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Virginia (31 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and North Carolina (33 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Iowa or Nevada (24 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Colorado (27 electoral votes)
he wins New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Colorado (24 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Iowa and Nevada (27 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Iowa and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Colorado and New Hampshire (26 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia, Colorado, and either Iowa or Nevada (28 electoral votes)

So these are ELEVEN scenarios where Barack Obama has the advantage–needing only between one and four states of the eight “swing” states to win the Presidency in the Electoral College!

The unemployment rate is lower than the national average in New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio and Iowa, while higher in North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

So if one were to assume that the four states that have the lower unemployment rate than the national average go to Obama, he wins 41 electoral votes, for a grand total of 288 electoral votes.

Of course, there are five states, that are considered “red” or Republican states, that actually are in play, although expected to go to Romney. These are Indiana (11 electoral votes), which went to Obama in 2008; Missouri (10 electoral votes), which was won by John McCain in 2008 by only about 4,000 votes; Montana (3 electoral votes), which is becoming more Democratic; Arizona (11 electoral votes), which is moving toward Democratic over time with the growing Hispanic vote, and the controversial immigration law under Governor Jan Brewer; and Georgia (16 electoral votes), which is gaining a large Hispanic population, which means it will likely trend Democratic over the next few election cycles. Were all of these to go Democratic in a close vote situation, Obama could, theoretically, win 51 more electoral votes!

So, IF Obama were to win all of the eight “swing states” now in play, based on Romney’s decision as to what states to spend money on advertising, he would go from what seems clearly 247 electoral votes to 347 electoral votes–meaning he would have won all of the states he won in 2008, except for Indiana!

This is 18 electoral votes fewer than in 2008, when Obama won 365 electoral votes–due to the theoretical loss of Indiana (11 electoral votes), plus the fact that the states he won lost a total of 7 electoral votes due to reapportionment of seats in Congress, based on the 2010 Census.

But IF Obama were to win the “red” states that could be in play, listed above, a total of five states with 51 electoral votes, his highest theoretical total of electoral votes would reach 398 electoral votes, meaning Romney would win only 140 electoral votes, with Obama winning 32 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney winning 18 states!

The ultimate point of this discussion is to make it clear that the odds of Obama being re-elected are very high, despite the supposedly tight popular vote on a national level, which really proves nothing, as the polls on popular vote in the eight “swing” states demonstrate that Obama is ahead in all of them, except in North Carolina and Colorado, so to bet against Obama would be a losing bet, best thought about before being placed, as the odds of losing large amounts of money is extremely a likely occurrence!

Missouri Senate Race Could Lead To Obama Victory In “Bellwether” State

Ronald Leave a comment

Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri has been considered the most vulnerable incumbent in this year’s Senate races, but the flap and controversy over the remarks of Republican nominee Todd Akin six days ago has led to McCaskill, who was trailing Akin, to take a nine point lead in the latest polling.

IF McCaskill can continue to keep a lead over Akin, and nine points is a massive edge at this point, 73 days out, then President Obama has the prospect of carrying Missouri, which he lost to John McCain by about 4,000 votes in 2008.

Remember again that Missouri has been a “bellwether” state since the beginning of the 20th century, with only 1956 and 2008 having the Presidential winner lose Missouri, so it would be very welcome to Obama to win the 10 electoral votes of the “Show Me” state in November, and improve his chances of winning the Electoral College, which now are excellent, even without Missouri!

Medicare Will Decide The Election: IF Obama Wins Florida AND New Hampshire Of “Battleground” States, He Wins The Presidency!

Ronald Leave a comment

Chuck Todd of NBC’s Meet The Press just demonstrated how close Barack Obama is to a victory for the White House.

Showing an electoral vote map with 237 electoral votes in Obama’s camp and 191 in Mitt Romney’s camp, Todd demonstrates that there are NINE true “battleground” or “swing” states, and if Obama wins Florida and New Hampshire, he has the second term he wants in the White House! And the issue of Medicare, brought to central focus by Paul Ryan and his budget plans on that program, will be the center of the victory of Obama for the Presidency!

Even if Romney wins the other seven contestable states—Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada—he would lose the Electoral College 270-268, due to Florida’s 29 electoral votes and New Hampshire’s 4 electoral votes!

But, to assume that Obama would really lose all seven of those states is also delusional, as it is certain that he will win some, and probably, most of them!

This author has been saying this for a long time, and has found some readers of this blog, conservative and Republican friends and associates, and people on Fox News Channel and talk radio, act as if only the public opinion polls, which often show a close race in many states and nationally, should be paid attention to, but that is NOT the case!

The election is decided by the Electoral College, NOT the popular vote nationally,and do not forget that George W. Bush LOST the popular vote in 2000, but was declared the winner of the Electoral College! The same happened to Benjamin Harrison, Rutherford Hayes, and John Quincy Adams in the past!

But to conclude that, somehow, Barack Obama will lose the national popular vote, with the Republican alienation of Hispanics-Latinos, African Americans, women, young voters, the middle class, senior citizens, gays and lesbians, the poor, labor, educators, consumer advocates, environmentalists, and secular voters—in each case, the majority, not all of any group, of course—indicates that those believing what they do are indeed delusional, and cannot be helped by ordinary medical intervention!