Dr Benjamin Carson

Republican Party History: Key Dates Of 1860, 1912, 1964, 2016—the 52 Year Syndrome!

The Republican has had a long, controversial history since its founding in 1854 as a party opposed to the expansion of slavery, and containing within itself, those opposed to the institution of slavery itself.

After only six years, the Republican Party reached majority control of both houses of Congress and the White House, with Abraham Lincoln.

From then until 52 years later, 1912, the GOP dominated American politics, except in the South, where the Democrats prevailed.

In 1912, the party split between former President Theodore Roosevelt, an extremely popular and path breaking President, the greatest Republican President since Lincoln, and the incumbent President, William Howard Taft, who was supported by conservatives of the time against TR’s Progressive Party challenge, which led to Taft only winning two states and 23 percent of the national popular vote, and putting Democrat Woodrow Wilson in the White House.

While the Republicans recovered in the 1920s, and almost defeated Wilson in 1916 with their nominee, Charles Evans Hughes, the Great Depression decimated the Republican Party, and the Democrats became the majority party, while the Republicans continued to battle between moderates and conservatives, with the moderates winning the nominations for President, until finally, Senator Barry Goldwater defeated the Establishment  forces led by New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller in 1964, 52 years after the earlier collapse.  Goldwater went on to lose the popular vote in a two way race by a larger margin than ever in American history, with Lyndon B. Johnson winning over 61 percent of the national vote.

This massive defeat did not end the civil war in the GOP, with Gerald Ford just barely winning the nomination over Ronald Reagan in 1976, and losing a very close race to Jimmy Carter.  But Reagan then won the White House, and the right wing felt it was in its glory, although Reagan was, actually, very unpredictable in his policies and views, and would today, probably be rejected by the extreme right wing in control of the GOP in 2015.

The right wing was unhappy with George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole, George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney as insufficiently conservative, and now there is full scale civil war in the GOP, including revolts against Speaker of the House John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.  The rise of Donald Trump, Dr. Benjamin Carson, and Carly Fiorina, all non office holders, demonstrates the right wing desire to fight the GOP establishment, but what it means is certain defeat in 2016.

Likely, no matter who is nominated, the Republican Party is, seemingly, at a 52 year mark, again ready to implode upon itself, and give the Democrats long term control of the Presidency, as the situation now appears!

427 Days, 61 Weeks To Presidential Election Of 2016: Result Unclear At This Time!

It is now 427 days, 61 weeks, until the Presidential Election of 2016!

14 months to the day of the election, November 8, 2016, and the result is unclear at this time!

Most observers would have thought six months ago that the race would be between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush.

Instead, today, September 8, Bernie Sanders is ahead in New Hampshire polls, Joe Biden is considering running, and Hillary Clinton is on the defensive over her emails.

Instead, today, September 8, Donald Trump is ahead with Dr. Benjamin Carson behind him, and Jeb Bush rapidly declining in polls of the Republican race.

Who could have predicted this scenario?

So the election is wide open, and although the Democrats are heavily favored in the Electoral College, it is no guarantee of the result, and of who might reside in the White House on January 20, 2017!

The Trump Effect: Goodbye To Scott Walker, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul

Donald Trump is in the process of doing great damage to the Republican Party, but already, his effect has been to destroy half of the candidates in a dramatic way.

Everyone knew that George Pataki and Jim Gilmore had no hope of being the nominee, even though in some ways, they are actually more mainstream than others.  But the GOP is not working to be mainstream, which is why they will lose the Presidential Election of 2016.

But others have been damaged badly, and can now be considered out of the race, even though they are refusing to accept reality.

The biggest loser is Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, backed by the Koch Brothers, but being totally inept, indecisive, and weak in his campaign presentations, a very different image than he had as he attacked labor unions in his state.

Rick Perry had hoped he could recover from the debacle of 2012 debates, but he is now down to one paid staffer in Iowa, and is no longer a factor.

Bobby Jindal, one of the most hypocritical of all candidates, has never taken off, and has lost in recent polls any support he seemed to have.

Lindsey Graham is an influential Senator, but totally anemic and embarrassing in his lack of support even in his home state of South Carolina.

Chris Christie has lost his purpose, as Donald Trump is much more of a braggart, a bully, a loud mouth than Christie, so he is done.

Rick Santorum might have ended up second to Mitt Romney in 2012, and won some caucuses and primaries, but lightning will not strike twice for him.

Rand Paul is also pitiful, going nowhere fast, and inconsistent in his libertarianism, and now can purse another Senate race as his state party in Kentucky has agreed to a caucus, instead of a primary for the Presidential race.

So effectively, the Republican race is down to 8 people, much more manageable:  Donald Trump, Dr. Benjamin Carson, Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio.

And then, lurking in the background, is Mitt Romney, which would be a sign of desperation for the Republican Party!

Public Policy Polling Makes Clear It Is Time For Eight Of Republican Presidential Candidates To Withdraw From The Race!

The latest Public Policy Polling poll indicates that it is time for 8 of the 17 Republicans to withdraw from the Presidential race for 2016, as their chances of improving are nil, and they are losing money and campaign staff rapidly, if they had it to begin with!

The following candidates need to “throw in the towel” on their campaigns:

Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore

Former New York Governor George Pataki

Former Texas Governor Rick Perry

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie

Even if one thinks some of these candidates have some ideas worthy of consideration, it is clear that their hopes for the Republican Presidential nomination are less than zero.  No miracle will happen, and it is time to get back to reality!

If these eight withdrew, it would leave 9 candidates, who could all debate on September in the CNN debate.

This would include Donald Trump, Dr. Benjamin Carson, and Carly Fiorina (who has surged in polls, but is not scheduled to be in the September 16 “Top Ten” debate); Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush; Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee; Ohio Governor John Kasich; Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker; Texas Senator Ted Cruz; and Florida Senator Marco Rubio.

“Non Politicians”–Presidential Winners And A Few Presidential Nominees

With three Republican Presidential candidates for 2016 being “non politicians”, people who have never served in a government position on the city, state or national level, the issue arises: have there been any other such candidates in the past?

It turns out that we have had several military generals who never served in a civilian position, that could qualify as “non politicians”.

This includes the following:

Zachary Taylor 1848 (Mexican War)

Winfield Scott 1852 (Mexican War)

George McClellan 1864 (Civil War)

Ulysses S. Grant 1868, 1872 (Civil War)

Winfield Scott Hancock 1880 (Civil War)

Taylor and Grant were elected, while Scott, McClellan, and Hancock were defeated in their attempts to become President.

McClellan did serve as Governor of New Jersey from 1878-1881, AFTER running for President against Abraham Lincoln.  But Taylor, Scott, Grant and Hancock never ran for public office.

Additionally, Horace Greeley, the New York Tribune publisher, ran for President in 1872, as the candidate of the Democratic Party and the breakaway group in the Republican Party opposed to Grant’s reelection, known as the “Liberal Republicans”.  He served very briefly as an appointed member of the House of Representatives, but not by vote of the people, but rather a choice of Whig Party leaders to fill a short term replacement before the election for the next term in Congress.  He served a total of only three months from December 1848 to March 1849, and did not run for the New York City seat.  Technically, one could say he had that political experience, but so little in time, that he could be seen as basically a “non politician” when he ran for President 24 years later, although being the editor of the New York Tribune was certainly “political” in nature.

Then we have Wall Street industrialist and businessman Wendell Willkie, who ran against Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1940, after stirring the Republican National Convention and overcoming much better known Presidential candidates, but while running a good race, he lost, and then supported the World War II effort and cooperated with FDR until Willkie died in late 1944.

And finally, we have billionaire Ross Perot, who ran for President as an independent in 1992 and as the Reform Party candidate in 1996.

So only Zachary Taylor and Ulysses S. Grant were “non politicians” who were elected President.

The odds of Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina, or Dr. Benjamin Carson being elected President in 2016, therefore, are astronomical!

The Anti Political Establishment “Rebellion” In Full Swing In Summer Of 2015

The summer of 2015 has witnessed a clear cut “rebellion” against the the political establishment in both political parties.

The Republican Party is observing the rise of Donald Trump, who, although he is part of the “one percent” as a billionaire, is perceived as “anti Establishment”.

No matter how Donald Trump acts, and no matter what he says, he is still the clear leader in public opinion polls, reinforced after the controversial Fox News Channel Republican Presidential debate in Cleveland, Ohio, on Thursday, August 6.

Not only is Trump still with a wide lead, but now, at least in the NBC News poll that has emerged on Monday morning, Texas Senator Ted Cruz has ended up second; former pediatric surgeon Dr. Benjamin Carson is third; former Hewlett Packard businesswoman Carly Fiorina is fourth; and Florida Senator Marco Rubio is fifth.

So this means that three of the top four in the poll are “non politicians”, and Cruz at number two is in the Senate for only three years; and Rubio at number five is in the Senate for only five years, meaning even they are not seen by many as part of the “political establishment”, since they are both in their first term in national politics.

Also of interest is that we witness an African American, two Cuban Americans, and a woman in the top five of the Republican Presidential poll.

At the same time, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has attracted the largest crowds of any candidate on either side of the Presidential race; has had crowds such as 15,000 in Seattle, 20,000 plus in Portland, and impressive crowds in Texas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Maine; and is now only a few points behind Hillary Clinton in polls in New Hampshire, and definitely gaining poll points everywhere at the expense of Hillary. This is so despite the fact he is identified as a Socialist, and only has connected to the Democratic Party in the House and Senate for committee appointments, but is certainly to the left of just about all Democrats in Congress. So he is, in many ways, anti “political establishment” in his platform and rhetoric.

The question is whether this “rebellion” in both political parties will lead to real transformational change, or whether in the end, Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton will triumph as the nominees of their parties, and possibly lead to many people staying home and not voting in protest, or rallying to a Donald Trump third party candidacy!

Winners And Losers In First Republican Debate

It is clear to this blogger that the winners of the first Republican debate, in Cleveland, Ohio, last night were in order:

John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Dr Benjamin Carson
Rand Paul

It is also clear to this blogger that the losers of the first Republican debate, in Cleveland, Ohio, lat night were in order:

Donald Trump
Scott Walker
Ted Cruz
Chris Christie
Mike Huckabee

if one includes the separate debate of the seven at the bottom of the polls, the winners in order were:

Carly Fiorina
Rick Perry

The losers were the rest of the group in the following order:

Rick Santorum
Bobby Jindal
Lindsey Graham
Jim Gilmore
George Pataki

Who came out as potentially “Presidential” in order:

John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush

It seems more likely than ever that one of these three will be the Republican Presidential nominee, but there is a long road to six months from now and the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary and beyond, so we shall see!

Likelihood Of Oldest Presidential Candidate Race Ever In American History!

As the 2016 Presidential campaign heats up, it looks more and more likely that the two major party nominees will be among the oldest ever nominated or elected.

The Democrats have the following candidates who will be 64 or even beyond 70 as possible nominees:

Hillary Clinton 69
Joe Biden 74
Bernie Sanders 75
Jim Webb 70 (but nearly 71)
Lincoln Chafee 63 (but nearly 64)

The Republicans have the following candidates who will be 64 or beyond as possible nominees:

Jeb Bush 63 (but nearly 64)
Donald Trump 70
John Kasich 64
Rick Perry 66 (but nearly 67)
Jim Gilmore 67
George Pataki 71
Dr Benjamin Carson 65

Between the likely Democratic nominee and the likely Republican nominee, we can expect the oldest combination of Presidential candidates if one for each group above are the chosen nominees.

Right now, the Democratic nominee seems likely to be one of the top three on the list–Clinton, Biden or Sanders; and the Republican nominee likely to be one of the top three on that list—Bush, Trump, Kasich.

However, IF the Republican nominee turns out to be the younger candidates, such as Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, or Marco Rubio, we could have a bigger difference in age than we have rarely had, with only vast differences in age of William McKinley and William Jennings Bryan in 1896 and 1900; Franklin D. Roosevelt and Thomas E. Dewey in 1944; Harry Truman and Dewey in 1948; Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale in 1984; Bill Clinton and George H. W. Bush in 1992; Clinton and Bob Dole in 1996; Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008; and Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012.

Note that in the cases of a much older and much younger opponents, the older candidate won with McKinley, FDR, Truman, and Reagan, but the younger candidate won with Clinton twice and Obama twice.

If Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee or Lindsey Graham were the GOP nominee, the average age of the two opponents would still be close to the highest in history, with their average age in the low 60s at inauguration.

Remember that the only Presidents to be 64 or older at inauguration were Ronald Reagan, William Henry Harrison, James Buchanan, George H. W. Bush, and Zachary Taylor.

The only other Presidents over the age of 60 at inauguration were:

Dwight D. Eisenhower
Andrew Jackson
John Adams
Gerald Ford
Harry Truman

So only 10 Presidents out of 43 were 60 or older when taking the oath, while now we are very likely to have both candidates over the age of 60, with 11 out of 17 Republican candidates being over 60, and 5 out of 6 (Martin O’Malley the exception) of the Democratic candidates over the age of 60.

So while we had a “new generation of leadership” three times in the past half century with John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, now we are almost certain to have an “old generation” of leadership coming to power on January 20, 2017.

A “Nice”, “Authentic” Person, Not A Mean Spirited, Uncaring Person: What People Want For Their Next President!

Americans are confused and upset about the uncertainties facing the nation, due to the political split in Congress and in the state legislatures. They might seem to cheer on a nasty, bullyish candidate who, momentarily, appears to vent their frustrations. But when emotions calm, that is not what the American people are looking for!

They want someone who is a “nice guy”, “authentic”, “real”, “truly concerned” about the issues and problems, confident and sure of himself, and a good debater who can overcome his opponents with his facts, knowledge, and charm, and convince the American people he is the right person for the Presidency! Joe Biden fits that description precisely, and even his opponents in the Republican Party, including Lindsey Graham, Mitch McConnell, John Boehner, and many others, respect and like him personally!

No Republican Presidential candidate fits that bill, not one of them.

Neither does Hillary Clinton fully evoke that feeling, and Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley simply do not have the ability to go all the way, and Sanders has the issue that most Americans are totally ignorant of the word “Socialism” and its meaning, and that harms his candidacy!

Face it, Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Dr Benjamin Carson, Rand Paul, Lindsey Graham, Rick Perry, Carly Fiorina—all of these come across as mean spirited and uncaring.

Jeb Bush, John Kasich and Marco Rubio come across in a somewhat better fashion, as does George Pataki and Jim Gilmore, but none of them have the personality and genuine nature of Joe Biden!

We have never elected a President since World War II, with the exception of Richard Nixon, who was not likable when elected. Lyndon B. Johnson, while not that likable, was in office before he faced election, as was Harry Truman, so they are not included. But all the others, despite whatever shortcomings they had, were likable when they were elected, except for Nixon.

We want to “like” our President, and the Republican Party has a major problem with “likability”, which guarantees they will lose, even to a candidate such as Hillary Clinton, who is not seen as particularly “likable”, while Sanders, O Malley and Joe Biden are all very “likable”. But Biden stands out over O’Malley and Sanders!

The Long Range Potential Beneficiary Of Donald Trump Candidacy: Ted Cruz, Or Is Cruz The Possible Long Term Loser?

It has been noticed that many of the Republican Presidential candidates have finally spoken out against Donald Trump’s racism and nativism.

This includes George Pataki, Jeb Bush, Lindsey Graham, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, and Chris Christie, although some of them reacting quite tamely.

Others have avoided touching the subject, but then there is Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who has specifically avoided criticism of Trump, and in fact, has praised him for his stance on illegal immigration.

Rick Santorum and Dr. Benjamin Carson have also praised Trump to a lesser extent, but Cruz’s gushing about Trump makes it likely that Trump would promote Cruz when it is clear that Trump is ready to leave the race.

But, of course, Cruz’s support of Trump could backfire on him and kill him off as the potential Republican Presidential nominee. The Trump-Cruz connection is a double edged sword!