Presidential Age

The Experience Of Reagan And Trump A Lesson: Age Of Presidents Should Be Between 43 and 70, Election To Retirement!

Ronald 2 Comments

The growing signs that President Donald Trump might be in the early stages of dementia, and possibly Alzheimers Disease, based on his speech pattern and delusional behavior, brings to the forefront the issue of Presidential age and health.

We live in a time of more and more Americans working into their 70s and 80s,although most only work part time, in jobs that are not highly challenging or stressful.

There is no desire to discriminate against people based on age, but when it comes to the Presidency, the most challenging and stressful job in the world, it would seem wise to learn from the experiences of Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump, as well as the illnesses experienced by Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Presidency.

Reagan clearly suffered from early dementia and Alzheimers, particularly in the second term, when his wife and his staff often were there to help him in what he said publicly. His public speeches suffered, as already Donald Trump’s public utterances are demonstrating.

Eisenhower had three serious illnesses in 1955, 1956, and 1957, with a massive heart attack in 1955. When Ike retired at age 70 and three months in January 1961,the oldest when leaving office until Reagan and now Trump, he said no one older than himself should be President, and that now makes a lot of sense.

And then we have Zachary Taylor who died in office, elected at age 64 and dying 16 months later; and William Henry Harrison, elected at age 68, and dying after one month in office.

Also, James Buchanan, elected at age 65 but nearly 66, and being unable to handle the job of President effectively, and he goes down in history as the worst President ever, in most scholarly polls of Presidential experts.

Only George Herbert Walker Bush, elected at 64, and defeated at age 68, might have been acceptable had he won a second term over Bill Clinton in 1992. And even he would have been past Ike’s age only for the last two years of a theoretical second term.

John F. Kennedy was the youngest elected President at age 43 and seven months, with only Theodore Roosevelt being younger, succeeding William McKinley after his assassination, and being 42 years and almost 11 months.

The average age of Presidents is 55, and it would seem to make sense that we elect Presidents only from age 43 to age 62, when they first take the oath of office, so that the range of age when leaving office is 51 to 70.

Altogether, we have had 9 Presidents in their 40s when inaugurated, and 11 Presidents in their 60s or more when elected President.

So basically, the age of JFK when elected, to the age of Ike, when he retired, makes the most sense for the long term future.

The Age Issue In The Presidential Campaign

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This blogger has discussed before the reality that we are likely to have the oldest President in American history being elected in the Presidential Election of 2016.

Only Ronald Reagan and Dwight D. Eisenhower were past 70 when President, with Ike only three months beyond 70 when he finished his time in the White House, while Reagan was just weeks short of 70 when elected, and almost 78 when he left office after two terms.  Of course, Reagan showed signs of mental decline in his second term, as his son Ron Jr testifies to, and there were many hints that there was concern of his staff and his wife about his ability to deal with the responsibilities, and efforts to “protect” and “shelter” him.

The point is that there is no question that anyone beyond the age of 70 is more likely to have a health crisis, such as a heart attack, a stroke, Alzheimer’s, or cancer, than someone under the age of 70.

Yes, we live in a time when many people continue to work full time, including Supreme Court Justices, US Senators and Congressmen, corporate leaders, media figures, actors and musicians, and average Americans.

And yes, many “senior citizens” work part time, some because they need to in an economic sense, and others because they wish to keep active and engaged.

No one is saying that people over 70 should be “farmed out to pasture”!  But the pressures of the Presidency are greater than any other job, and affect all of us in the country, unlike any other job.  And that makes it ever more important that the best possible Vice Presidential candidates are chosen, and that he or she be substantially younger than an elderly President, since the odds of a Presidential succession during a term of office is far greater statistically.

Also, we have not had a Presidential succession in 41 years since Richard Nixon resigned, and 52 years since a President died in office (John F. Kennedy), so we are fighting against the tides of history, and more so with a President over 70!

Likelihood Of Oldest Presidential Candidate Race Ever In American History!

Ronald 6 Comments

As the 2016 Presidential campaign heats up, it looks more and more likely that the two major party nominees will be among the oldest ever nominated or elected.

The Democrats have the following candidates who will be 64 or even beyond 70 as possible nominees:

Hillary Clinton 69
Joe Biden 74
Bernie Sanders 75
Jim Webb 70 (but nearly 71)
Lincoln Chafee 63 (but nearly 64)

The Republicans have the following candidates who will be 64 or beyond as possible nominees:

Jeb Bush 63 (but nearly 64)
Donald Trump 70
John Kasich 64
Rick Perry 66 (but nearly 67)
Jim Gilmore 67
George Pataki 71
Dr Benjamin Carson 65

Between the likely Democratic nominee and the likely Republican nominee, we can expect the oldest combination of Presidential candidates if one for each group above are the chosen nominees.

Right now, the Democratic nominee seems likely to be one of the top three on the list–Clinton, Biden or Sanders; and the Republican nominee likely to be one of the top three on that list—Bush, Trump, Kasich.

However, IF the Republican nominee turns out to be the younger candidates, such as Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, or Marco Rubio, we could have a bigger difference in age than we have rarely had, with only vast differences in age of William McKinley and William Jennings Bryan in 1896 and 1900; Franklin D. Roosevelt and Thomas E. Dewey in 1944; Harry Truman and Dewey in 1948; Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale in 1984; Bill Clinton and George H. W. Bush in 1992; Clinton and Bob Dole in 1996; Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008; and Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012.

Note that in the cases of a much older and much younger opponents, the older candidate won with McKinley, FDR, Truman, and Reagan, but the younger candidate won with Clinton twice and Obama twice.

If Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee or Lindsey Graham were the GOP nominee, the average age of the two opponents would still be close to the highest in history, with their average age in the low 60s at inauguration.

Remember that the only Presidents to be 64 or older at inauguration were Ronald Reagan, William Henry Harrison, James Buchanan, George H. W. Bush, and Zachary Taylor.

The only other Presidents over the age of 60 at inauguration were:

Dwight D. Eisenhower
Andrew Jackson
John Adams
Gerald Ford
Harry Truman

So only 10 Presidents out of 43 were 60 or older when taking the oath, while now we are very likely to have both candidates over the age of 60, with 11 out of 17 Republican candidates being over 60, and 5 out of 6 (Martin O’Malley the exception) of the Democratic candidates over the age of 60.

So while we had a “new generation of leadership” three times in the past half century with John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, now we are almost certain to have an “old generation” of leadership coming to power on January 20, 2017.