Democratic National Convention

Philadelphia The Site Of The Democratic National Convention The Week of July 25, 2016!

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So the Democratic National Committee has chosen Philadelphia, the “City of Brotherly Love”, the city of the Declaration of Independence and the Constitutional Convention, the city of Benjamin Franklin, to be the host for the Democratic National Convention, which will nominate the next Democratic nominee for President of the United States.

The convention will be held in the last week of July, the week after the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio.

So therefore, there will be little time for a “bump” in the polls for the GOP Presidential nominee, and an extra month for the official campaign, which will now start in August, rather than around Labor Day in September.

This author had predicted that Columbus, Ohio, would be the site, and concedes that this time, unlike Tampa and the Republicans in 2012, that he turned out to have predicted incorrectly. The reasoning was that Ohio was in play as a “swing” state, while Pennsylvania is not really such.

However, Philadelphia is a great choice, and the general term “City of Brotherly Love’ actually fits perfectly, as the Democrats are the party of equal rights for gays and lesbians, while the Republicans, with a very few exceptions of office holders, still defy and oppose such equality, including marriage, although it is clear that the Supreme Court is about to declare this June that gays and lesbians may marry everywhere in the United States!

Final Decision On Democratic National Convention Due: New York, Philadelphia, Or Columbus, Ohio?

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Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, will be announcing sometime this month where the 2016 Democratic National Convention will be held in the summer of 2016.

The finalists are New York City, Philadelphia, and Columbus, Ohio.

Many might say having the convention in the number one city in America (New York City), or in the city representing the Declaration of Independence and the Constitutional Convention (Philadelphia), would be the best choice.

However, realize that both New York State and Pennsylvania are strongly “blue” states in Presidential elections, and therefore, nothing electorally is gained by choosing either city.

On the other hand, selecting Columbus, Ohio, the capital city of the Buckeye State, is a strategically very smart move, particularly with the fact that the Republican National Convention is to be held in Cleveland.

Ohio is the ultimate swing state, having been with the winner every election since 1964, and it is, certainly, one of only five truly “swing states” up for contention.

The Democrats could win the Presidency without Ohio, but with the GOP in Ohio, and the strong possibility that either Governor John Kasich or Senator Rob Portman could be the Vice Presidential running mate for Jeb Bush or others, and that Kasich himself could run for President, it would be extremely smart and sensible to compete for Ohio in the convention situation, along with the Republicans in Cleveland.

So the Democrats should seriously make the decision to go for Columbus, and make Ohio a true rivalry for party support, and if Ohio went to the Democrats, it would clinch for sure the winning of the Presidency by any Presidential nominee, no matter who it was!

So my prediction is that the Democrats will see the reasoning suggested in this blog entry, and will choose Columbus, Ohio, over New York City and Philadelphia. We shall see how my prediction works out in the next month!

I remind my readers that I correctly predicted Tampa, Florida, as the convention site of the Republicans in 2012!

Ohio The Crucial State In Presidential Elections Since 1964! Republicans, Be Aware Of That Reality!

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Ohio, the “Buckeye” state, is the crucial state in Presidential elections since 1964, with the winner in Ohio going on to win the election, and reside in the White House!

This makes it essential for the Republican Party to take this into consideration, and to nominate an Ohioan for the Presidency in 2016. It also makes it essential for Democrats to fight tooth and nail to win this state, although they could win the Electoral College without Ohio.

A recent assessment of the Electoral College theorizes that the Democrats may have the 270 electoral votes needed to win the Presidency in 2016, as the so called “blue” states add up to 257 electoral votes, including all of New England and the Northeast, down to the District of Columbia; the Midwest states of Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota; and the Western states of California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, and Hawaii. Add Virginia and its 13 electoral votes, and the fact that the state has gone “blue” in Senate and gubernatorial elections recently, and is influenced by the power of the Northern Virginia (DC suburbs) population, and you have the precise number of electoral votes needed.

But of course, the desire is not to barely win, so Ohio is crucial for Democrats, but also Republicans!

This author has said before that, therefore, the best choice for the GOP Presidential nomination is either Governor John Kasich or Senator Rob Portman, more than any others, but not even certain that either will run for the Presidency, or do well in the caucuses and primaries, starting in January 2016!

Kasich has accepted Medicaid funding for the poor in his state, and Portman has backed gay marriage after his son came out as gay, and these factors hurt both with the Tea Party base in the Republican Party.

On the other hand, Kasich has a long record of Congressional service in the past, and headed the House Budget Committee in the 1990s; and Portman was Budget Director under President George W. Bush.

Both are mild mannered, not the type to make outrageous or ridiculous or extremist statements, and both seem competent to serve as President, more than most of the other potential alternatives.

The GOP National Convention will be in Cleveland, and there is a good chance of the Democratic National Convention being in Columbus, so Ohio moves to the forefront as a major battleground for 2016, which should not be ignored by either party, but particularly the Republicans!

Realize that six Ohio Republicans went on to become President from 1868-1923—Ulysses S. Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes, James A. Garfield, William McKinley, William Howard Taft, and Warren G. Harding!

Will the GOP be smart enough to do the right thing? Don’t bet on it!

How A Speech Elevated Four Presidential Candidates To Nomination, And Two Of Them To The White House!

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The power of oratory in advancing a political candidacy for the Presidency,that no one expected to occur, is part of American history!

There have been four cases of people who were elevated to a Presidential nomination, and two of them to the White House, by the electrifying effect that a speech had on their political party and the nation at large!

Two of these were Democrats, and two were Republicans.

One of the Democrats was former Nebraska Congressman William Jennings Bryan, who delivered the “Cross of Gold” speech at the 1896 Democratic National Convention, with this leading to his Presidential nomination. Despite losing to William McKinley, Bryan went on to be the nominee of the Democrats two more times, in 1900 and 1908.

The other was Illinois State Senator Barack Obama, who gave a dynamic speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, arguing against a divided America, and calling for a united America, instead of a “red’ America and a “blue” America. It drew attention to him, and after being elected to the US Senate, he decided to campaign for the Presidency, and overcame many adversities to win two terms in the White House, but sadly saw “red” and “blue” America split ever further apart!

The first Republican was businessman Wendell Willkie, who despite no political experience, stirred the Republican National Convention of 1940 with his speech and charisma, and went on to become the nominee of his party, but losing to Franklin D. Roosevelt.

Ronald Reagan was the other Republican, making a well noticed speech on television in support of Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater, the GOP nominee for President in 1964. Goldwater lost in a massive landslide to Lyndon B. Johnson, but Reagan gained enough support and notice to run for California Governor in 1966, and eventually to be elected to two terms as President in the 1980s!

So the power of speech and charisma has had a great effect on American politics!

Six Cities For Democrats and Four For Republicans Competing For 2016 National Conventions!

Ronald 5 Comments

The bids are in for the two national conventions of the major political parties competing for the Presidency in 2016.

The Democrats have bids from Birmingham, Alabama; Cleveland, Ohio; Columbus, Ohio; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; New York City (Brooklyn); and Phoenix, Arizona.

The Republicans have bids from Cleveland, Ohio; Dallas, Texas: Denver, Colorado; and Kansas City, Missouri.

It would be interesting if both parties chose Cleveland, as the parties have, occasionally, chosen the same city for their conventions, but somehow, this author does not see either party actually choosing Cleveland.

What makes the most sense is to choose a city in a state that is competitive, or significant enough to be considered possibly a win for the political party involved.

Going on that assumption, it makes no sense for Birmingham, Alabama to be chosen by the Democrats.

New York City (Brooklyn) would be a popular favorite, but New York is guaranteed to the Democrat Presidential nominee in 2016.

Philadelphia would be a good choice, in a state which could be competitive, although the Democrats are a heavy favorite to win the state, so it seems unlikely as the choice that will be made.

So that leaves Columbus, Ohio and Phoenix, Arizona as the remaining choices, as both states are highly competitive, but with Ohio more likely to go Democratic, and being, in many ways, the key swing state.

So the prediction of this blogger is that Columbus will be the host for the Democratic National Convention, the capital city of the state, and a better choice, overall, than Cleveland would be.

As far as the Republicans are concerned, the best choice, in the opinion of the blogger, is Denver, Colorado, a true swing state, but Dallas would be the backup if the GOP wants to send the message just how important Texas is, as the danger of an eventual move toward becoming a “blue” state becomes more possible as the years go by.

So the emotional favorite for this author for the Democrats is his home of New York, which he left for Florida 25 years ago, but the likelihood that Columbus will be chosen, with a backup of Phoenix.

While the author has no emotional favorite for the Republicans, the likely emotional choice for them would be Dallas, but with the likelihood that Denver will be chosen, and doubtful for Kansas City and, particularly, for Cleveland!

We shall see how accurate the author is in his predictions of Columbus for the Democrats and Denver for the Republicans!

The Political Ticket For President With Julian Castro As Vice Presidential Running Mate In 2016!

Ronald 1 Comment

San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, in his third term as Mayor of the seventh largest city, made quite an impression at the 2012 Democratic National Convention, when he gave a speech that reminded many of Barack Obama’s speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention.

An attractive, charismatic politician of Mexican American heritage, with his identical twin Joaquin Castro a member of the House of Representatives, the San Antonio Mayor gained an image as someone to watch, and he will be only 42 in 2016.

With the Hispanic-Latino population and vote multiplying, and with Texas seen as a battleground in the future, and even possibly in 2016, Julian Castro is the ideal Vice Presidential running mate, whether for Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Martin O’Malley, Elizabeth Warren, Mark Warner, or really ANY other Democratic Presidential nominee!

Castro has run the seventh largest city with distinction, and now is being nominated to be Barack Obama’s Housing and Urban Development Secretary, moving him to Washington and the center of national politics.

Castro is articulate, knowledgeable, and puts Texas and Georgia and North Carolina into play for 2016, along with improving the odds of Virginia and Florida remaining Democratic.

His youth (42) at the time of the election is an excellent balance for Hillary (69) or Joe (74), as it offers the experience and seasoning of either Hillary or Joe, while adding the largest Southern state to the game of Democratic party advancement. His urban experiences also are a major plus.

Castro’s only negatives are his last name, which Republicans will probably utilize to leave the impression that he is related to Cuban leaders Fidel and Raul Castro. Also, the anti immigrant policy of right wingers will use the fact that Castro is Mexican American as a racist attack on all Hispanics and Latinos, which will be to their detriment, as immigration will become an issue that will harm the Republican Party, as rightfully it should!

Overall, a great move to have Castro head the HUD Department and be available as the BEST running mate for Vice President for ANY Democratic Presidential nominee, insuring a massive win for the Democrats for the White House in 2016!

Iowa Democratic Party Steak Fry Shows Experience (Joe Biden) And Youth (Julian Castro)

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This past weekend, the Iowa Democratic Party held its Annual Steak Fry celebration, hosted by Iowa Senator Tom Harkin, bringing together two Democratic stars–one of experience and one of youth.

Vice President Joe Biden, a colleague and friend of Senator Harkin for the past thirty years, was there to remind people that he and Barack Obama had worked every day in the White House to advance the middle class, which they have done an excellent job on, considering the terrible economic collapse occurring just five years ago in mid September.

There is no question of Biden’s great credentials for the Presidency, although he will have to deal with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and other Democrats of a younger generation, with at least one likely to join the fray for the 2016 Democratic Presidential nomination to succeed Obama.

So the youth of the party was represented by San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, who is 39 today, and runs the seventh largest city in America. Castro made a very good impression at the Democratic National Convention in 2012, reminding many of Barack Obama’s fantastic performance at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, which catapulted the Illinois Senator into the 2008 Presidential race and the White House!

Castro would be 42 in 2016, and would bring a Latino into the Presidential race, a sign of the future growth of the United States. He is very charismatic, handsome, and well spoken, but the question is whether he would challenge both Biden and Clinton if they were to run.

Certainly, Biden and Castro got along famously, but they represent a difference of 32 years, nearly two generations of leadership apart, at ages 42 and 74 in 2016.

Castro made clear that the Democratic Party belief in helping those in need had made a difference in his life plan, as well as that of his identical twin brother, Congressman Joaquin Castro.

Without question, Castro would be a good choice if youth and promise matter, but Biden has the edge on experience and knowledge and connections.

In any case, either is far better than any Republican considered likely to enter the Presidential race in 2016!

Two Political Giants Pass From The Scene: Lindy Boggs And William Scranton!

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In just the past couple of days, two Political Giants, one a Democrat and a woman, the other a man and a Republican, have passed from the scene, and their deaths remind us of the fact that there have been quality politicians in both parties, but the number who are such is rapidly declining!

Former Louisiana Congresswoman Lindy Boggs, the widow of former Congressman Hale Boggs, and the mother of ABC journalist Cokie Roberts, died at the age of 97. One of the greatest women ever to serve in Congress, she won her husband’s seat after he was tragically killed in a small plane over Alaska, with his body never being found, in 1972. Lindy Boggs served almost 18 years in her Louisiana House district, winning the last few times as the only white Representative in Congress to represent a majority black district. She served as the Chairwoman of the 1976 Democratic National Convention which nominated Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale. She was outspoken on the subject of civil rights, and was the first woman to serve in Congress from her state. Boggs also served as Ambassador to the Vatican, the Holy See, in the second term of Bill Clinton’s Presidency from 1997-2001.

And her daughter, Cokie Roberts, became a well known, outstanding journalist on ABC for a few decades, adding much to the profession of television journalism!

Lindy Boggs was truly an elegant lady, and a woman who stands out as one of the best ever to serve in the halls of Congress!

Just today, news came of the death of former Republican Governor of Pennsylvania, William Scranton at age 96, who became very prominent as a one term Governor from 1963-1967, after serving one term in the House of Representatives. A progressive or liberal Republican, and proud of that appellation, Scranton ran a last ditch Presidential campaign against fellow Republican, Senator Barry Goldwater, attempting to stop his nomination for President in 1964.

Scranton came from a wealthy family which had founded Scranton, Pennsylvania, and was an inheritor of a fortune made in iron, coal, and railroads. He brought about education reform, including the community college system in his state. He also served as UN Ambassador in 1976, the last year of the Gerald Ford Presidency, and also headed a committee to investigate the Kent State University and Jackson State College tragedies which occurred after the US invasion of Cambodia in 1970 under President Richard Nixon during the Vietnam War! He also was asked by Nixon to be his Secretary of State, but declined, and was considered to be Gerald Ford’s Vice Presidential running mate in 1976, but passed by for Senator Bob Dole of Kansas!

The loss of two principled, decent politicians, such as Lindy Boggs and William Scranton, is a loss to American politics, and we can only hope for more people entering politics with the kind of stature and dignity that these two individuals personified!

The Extraordinarily Close Relationship Between President Obama And Vice President Biden

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Now that the first term of Barack Obama and Joe Biden is ending, it is worth a few moments to recognize the extraordinarily close relationship that exists between the President and the Vice President.

When one looks back on such relationships in the past, it is clear that no other relationship has been quite as close, as warm, as personally friendly, since the time when Jimmy Carter utilized Walter Mondale as practically a “co President” from 1977-1981.

Vice Presidents never really mattered or were close to a President until the 1950s, when Richard Nixon made the office of Vice President a significant office. But President Dwight D. Eisenhower was not very happy, a lot of the time, with his Vice President, and there were hints that he would have preferred a different running mate in 1956,

The John F. Kennedy–Lyndon B. Johnson relationship was not close at all, and neither was the Johnson–Hubert Humphrey relationship.

The Richard Nixon–Spiro Agnew relationship was not much better, and Nixon with Gerald Ford was only a brief period where the two men avoided contact with the other during the Watergate crisis.

Gerald Ford and Nelson Rockefeller were closer, but Ford chose to drop Rockefeller in favor of Bob Dole for the 1976 Presidential race to please the conservative wing led by Ronald Reagan, and years later, Ford expressed regret that he had allowed himself to dump Rockefeller.

Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale were extraordinarily close, with Mondale being treated as an absolute equal, and the two men remain close friends now after nearly 32 years out of office, the longest lasting Presidential-Vice Presidential team, breaking all records for longevity every day.

Ronald Reagan was not very close to George H. W. Bush personally, and Bush did not take Dan Quayle very seriously at all as a Vice President.

Bill Clinton and Al Gore were friendly and close until the Monica Lewinsky and impeachment issues arose, and then Gore stayed away from Clinton during his own campaign for President in 2000, which very well may have harmed his ability to win, despite a popular vote majority of about a half million votes.

George W. Bush relied on Dick Cheney a great deal, but their closeness, if it ever existed, dissipated in the second term over various matters.

The Obama-Biden friendship and closeness seems not at all affected in any way by events, or Biden’s well known problem with gaffes, and he has played a major role as an adviser on so many issues, domestic and foreign. One can see in so many situations and photos that the two men are close, and have a very warm, personal relationship with each other.

This could create a problem for President Obama IF both Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton decide to run for President, as the President owes a lot to both of them, as well as to former President Bill Clinton, for having worked so hard for his reelection, and giving what many consider the best speech for Obama at the Democratic National Convention as well.

The best situation for Obama then, would be to remain neutral, but with the hope that maybe one or both would decide ultimately, because of their ages and long careers, not to run for President in their 70s (Biden) or nearing 70s (Clinton).

Amazing Democratic Unity: Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry—All Working For Barack Obama!

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The last three Democratic nominees for President—Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry—are all actively involved in promoting Barack Obama’s reelection.

Clinton has been the strongest promoter of Obama, including his inspiring, dynamic speech at the Democratic National Convention. He will have campaigned all over the nation for his successor in the White House By the time of the election next month.

Al Gore’s CURRENT channel is fighting the battle for Obama in a very clear cut manner!

And John Kerry is acting as a Mitt Romney stand in, in preparing Obama to deal with Romney tonight, and in the two future debates.

The Democratic unity is wonderful, considering the history of the party often dividing, and having a reputation as a disorganized political party.