“Blue” States

Middle Class “Rust Belt” Voters (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin) Favor Hillary Clinton Over Donald Trump

Many Republicans seem to think that middle class “Rust Belt” voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin will abandon their strong support for Democrats in Presidential elections and vote for Donald Trump in 2016.

That is totally delusional, as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have been strongly “Blue” for the past six Presidential elections, and will not change this November.

Ohio is a different story, as it is the ultimate “Swing” state, and that is why Sherrod Brown, Ohio Democratic Senator, might be selected as Hillary Clinton’s Vice Presidential running mate.

If Donald Trump was able to convince Ohio Governor John Kasich or Ohio Senator Rob Portman, to be his running mate for Vice President, the odds of the Republicans winning Ohio would be vastly improved, but there seems to be zero chance of either Ohio Republican office holder taking up such an offer.

Polls so far make it clear that Hillary Clinton is strongly favored to carry all four “Rust Belt” states.

Republicans Unifying Around Donald Trump Are Self Destructing As A Result! Destroying Their Careers And Reputations In The Process!

Donald Trump is a total disaster for the Republican Party, and many office holders are backing away as rapidly as possible, but it may not be enough to save them and their careers and reputations in the process.

Many are still unifying around Trump, and will suffer ever more, including Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey and Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama as two examples, because they both have the ambition to be Vice President.

Many others clearly have no desire to run with Trump, and to serve under him would be a nightmare.

The only way to hold on to one’s career in the Republican Party is to repudiate Trump, and condemn his racism, nativism, xenophobia, and misogyny. Republicans in “Blue” states are showing signs of doing so, as for instance, Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland and Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker.

Many Republican Senators running for reelection are seeing their likelihood of reelection going down the drain, and are in crisis mode.

Of course, Republicans in solidly “Red” states, particularly in the South, probably do not need to worry as much, although there is no certainty that the “Red” states will all remain “Red”, as there are signs that North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, and even Utah might abandon the Republican Presidential candidate.

Tone And Temperament Harm Donald Trump With Voters, Will Prevent Expansion Of His Base!

Donald Trump’s tone and temperament are harming his Presidential campaign, and will prevent expansion of his base beyond a percentage of Republican voters.

A Bloomberg poll shows Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 49-37 today, and that includes Libertarian Gary Johnson with 9 percent.

So if one assumes that Gary Johnson will wither in support, then it seems likely that Hillary Clinton will have a larger lead in the future than just 12 points.

If that happens, then we are on the way to an electoral landslide of massive proportions.

It is still, of course, much too early to predict that, but it is clear that Donald Trump’s tone and temperament are greatly undermining his candidacy, and if he does not pivot very soon, and change his tune of misogyny, nativism, racism, and xenophobia, there is no way that Trump can possibly win the Presidency.

He has very little of an organized campaign in the “swing” states, and lives in delusion that he can, somehow, compete and win in California and New York, the two largest “Blue” states.

Donald Trump is self defeating, and his failure to change his tone and temperament will doom him in November!

Donald Trump Plans 15 State Strategy For Presidential Election, Including Solidly Blue States!

Donald Trump is telling us he has a 15 state strategy, including California and New York, solidly “blue” states.

Trump is living in a parallel universe, as there is no chance that he will win ANY “blue” state, as this blogger sees it, except possibly New York, his home state.

In an article for History News Network (HNN) by this author, available under “Articles” on the right side of this blog, I come to the conclusion that Trump COULD win New York, by a small margin, being that he is a resident of New York, and should carry upstate New York and Long Island, and could possibly outpoll Hillary Clinton statewide, even with New York City staying strongly Democratic.

However, California, most assuredly will NOT go for Trump, with Barack Obama having won the state by 23 points in 2012.

As I state on that article, which has had high readership, I forecast that Clinton will win two states that were “red” in 2012, North Carolina and Georgia, with a total of 31 electoral votes, which would make up for the possible loss of New York, with 29 electoral votes.

So I forecast an Electoral College vote of 334-204, instead of the 332-206 results for Obama in 2012.

British Betting Odds On Democratic Vice Presidential Nominees

If one goes by British betting odds, the list of potential Democratic Vice Presidential nominees is as follows:

In front is Julian Castro, former San Antonio Mayor, who is presently Secretary of Housing and Urban Development; followed by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren; Virginia Senator Tim Kaine; Secretary of Labor Tom Perez (from Maryland); and former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley (who was in the Democratic Presidential race).

After those five, the odds on others, in their order, are New Jersey Senator Cory Booker; Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown; and then Minnesota Senators Al Franken and Amy Klobuchar.

Looking at the list, the “safest” choices to make are Castro, Perez, O’Malley, Franken, and Klobuchar, as the first two are cabinet members and not potentially giving up a Senate seat; O’Malley is out of office; and Franken and Klobucar come from a solidly “blue” state that has a Democratic Governor able to appoint a Democratic replacement were either to be elected Vice President.

Warren and Booker come from states with Republican Governors, who would be able to appoint a Republican temporarily as their replacement, while Kaine and Brown comes from “swing states” with a Republican governor in Ohio, and a Democratic Governor in Virginia now under federal investigation in a state which would be Republican if not for northern Virginia’s strong Democratic bent.

The Possibility Of An All Female Presidential-Vice Presidential Team To Lead America: Hillary Clinton And?

America could be on the brink of seeing the first all female Presidential ticket!

It is rumored that Hillary Clinton might pick one of the following female running mates:

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren

Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill

Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar

Washington Senator Patty Murray

Washington Senator Maria Cantwell

Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow

The most exciting is Elizabeth Warren, but the long range future possible female President, after a theoretical eight years as Vice President, would be Amy Klobuchar or Maria Cantwell, both from safe blue states, and likely to be replaced by another Democrat.

The problem with Warren or McCaskill or Murray or Stabenow is their age, and the future in eight years!

Meanwhile, the Republicans might have South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley as a potential Vice Presidential running mate. Another possibility would be New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez.

Potential Michael Bloomberg Independent Presidential Candidacy Complicates Election Outlook In Massive Way!

The revelation that former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg (2002-2014) is considering entering the Presidential race of 2016 as an Independent complicates the election outlook in a massive way.

One could argue that an Independent candidacy will not succeed, as the best any independent or third party candidate has ever done is former President Theodore Roosevelt, running as a Progressive (Bull Moose) party candidate in 1912, ending up second rather than third, and winning six states, 88 electoral votes, and 27.4 percent of the popular vote.

But Bloomberg, the seventh wealthiest billionaire in America by 2015 statistics, and 13th wealthiest in the world with about $41 billion in assets, could upset the apple cart, and could have a real chance to win.

For one thing, as a former Democrat, then a Republican, and finally an Independent, Bloomberg proved he could govern New York City, arguably the second most difficult governing job in America next to the Presidency itself.

And as a social progressive, Bloomberg represents danger to the Democratic party and its reliable 18 “Blue” states, since a three way election could give Bloomberg the balance of power, and possibly lead to him winning some of those states, and denying Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders the Presidency, and indirectly aid the Republican nominee,  Donald Trump or whoever else it is.

And the scenario of no one winning 270 electoral votes is the nightmare, as if that happened, the House of Representatives, controlled by Republicans, and having more than 26 states with a Republican majority delegation, would have the final say on who the next President is, as in long ago 1800 and 1824!

The Bloomberg candidacy will be explored later by this blogger, with more detail and analysis, but this is NOT good for the Democratic Party!

Anti Immigrant (Nativist) Sentiments And The Republican Party, 1920s And 2010s: Will History Repeat Itself?

In the 1920s, the Republican Party was dominant and worked to undermine immigration to the United States, which had reached record levels from 1880-1920, bringing into America millions of immigrants of Catholic and Jewish origin, as well as smaller numbers from Asia, particularly Japan.

In the early 1920s, under Warren G. Harding and Calvin Coolidge, stringent immigration laws were put into place, cutting down the so called “new” immigration of these groups, who mostly had settled in the major urban centers, and become Democratic strongholds.

The growth of these Democratic strongholds in the cities helped to bring about a Democratic majority during the Great Depression, and led to the rise of the Democratic Party as the majority party, with the Republicans seen as the party of white Anglo Saxon Protestants.

While in future generations, the Republicans would gain a percentage of about one third to 40 percent of the Jewish and Catholic vote, they never were able to appeal to these groups and gain a majority, due to their clear cut nativism.  This was a major blunder on their part, which undermined their ability to become the majority party that they had once been from the Civil War to the Great Depression.

Now in recent years, the new nativism has occurred, as the Republicans promote and advocate anti Hispanic and anti Asian propaganda, and therefore, those groups overwhelmingly support the Democrats, along with African Americans, who realize that while some Republicans supported the Civil Rights Acts in the 1960s, no longer do Republicans concern themselves with the plight of African Americans.

So the new nativism is in play, and the Republicans cannot win the White House, and will have trouble retaining control of the US Senate, as long as they spew forth nativist propaganda.

The Republican Party knows they are in a bind, but with Donald Trump using anti Hispanic propaganda, and other candidates showing insensitivity toward legal immigrants and undocumented immigrants, they are definitely doomed to fail, and lose the White House for the long term, with the growing number of people of Hispanic and Asian ancestry, who are not about to vote for the party that trashes them.

Once Texas turns “Blue”, and Georgia and North Carolina eventually, and with Virginia and Florida becoming more reliably “Blue” in Presidential elections, the Electoral College will favor the Democrats.  The Republican Party, if it survives in is present form, will be doomed for many decades to be unable to win the Presidency!

Final Decision On Democratic National Convention Due: New York, Philadelphia, Or Columbus, Ohio?

Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, will be announcing sometime this month where the 2016 Democratic National Convention will be held in the summer of 2016.

The finalists are New York City, Philadelphia, and Columbus, Ohio.

Many might say having the convention in the number one city in America (New York City), or in the city representing the Declaration of Independence and the Constitutional Convention (Philadelphia), would be the best choice.

However, realize that both New York State and Pennsylvania are strongly “blue” states in Presidential elections, and therefore, nothing electorally is gained by choosing either city.

On the other hand, selecting Columbus, Ohio, the capital city of the Buckeye State, is a strategically very smart move, particularly with the fact that the Republican National Convention is to be held in Cleveland.

Ohio is the ultimate swing state, having been with the winner every election since 1964, and it is, certainly, one of only five truly “swing states” up for contention.

The Democrats could win the Presidency without Ohio, but with the GOP in Ohio, and the strong possibility that either Governor John Kasich or Senator Rob Portman could be the Vice Presidential running mate for Jeb Bush or others, and that Kasich himself could run for President, it would be extremely smart and sensible to compete for Ohio in the convention situation, along with the Republicans in Cleveland.

So the Democrats should seriously make the decision to go for Columbus, and make Ohio a true rivalry for party support, and if Ohio went to the Democrats, it would clinch for sure the winning of the Presidency by any Presidential nominee, no matter who it was!

So my prediction is that the Democrats will see the reasoning suggested in this blog entry, and will choose Columbus, Ohio, over New York City and Philadelphia. We shall see how my prediction works out in the next month!

I remind my readers that I correctly predicted Tampa, Florida, as the convention site of the Republicans in 2012!

Virginia The Only “Blue” State In The Old South In 2015, In Regards To Governorship And Senators!

Who would ever have thought that Virginia, the capital of the Confederate States of America a century and a half ago, and the home of the Harry Byrd Dynasty for so long, resisting civil rights advancements, would end up the only state of the “Old South” to have a Democratic Governor, and two Democratic Senators going into 2015?

Terry McAuliffe, Mark Warner, and Tim Kaine are the only ones from the Democratic Party to be in office, although the state Congressional delegation is actually 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats.

Only Steve Beshear in border state Kentucky is a Democratic Governor, but he is term limited and leaves at the end of 2015.

Only Bill Nelson in Florida is a Democratic Senator, other than the Virginians mentioned above, although Mary Landrieu in Louisiana has not yet lost her Senate seat, although seen as likely to lose it this coming weekend.

This historic transition from the Democratic to Republican Party in the Old South is now as complete as it has ever been!