Barry Goldwater

Public Opinion Polls Show A Widening Lead For Hillary Clinton Over Donald Trump, Even In “Swing” States!

Here we are at the end of June 2016, and the public opinion polls show a widening lead for Democrat Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump, even in “Swing” states.

Donald Trump is self destructing, and this less than three weeks before the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, and Republicans running away from Trump in droves, wishing for an alternative, but realistically, not able to gain one, other than maybe voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson, former Republican Governor of New Mexico and his running mate, William Weld, former Republican Governor of Massachusetts.

If this trend continues, the reality of a massive landslide seems inevitable, and it would have the effect of a 1964 landslide of Lyndon B. Johnson over Barry Goldwater.

North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Georgia and Arizona, and even possibly Utah, seem possible to go for Hillary Clinton, an unheard of thought just a few months ago, and with Hillary Clinton winning every state that Barack Obama won in 2012.

That would mean an Electoral College total of 401 electoral votes, with 69 being added to the 332 that Obama gained in 2012, and it would mean 32 states and DC out of the 50 states.

Crazy Dream Of Many Republicans Who Initially Rejected Trump–That He Will Magically Transform From His Sins–He Won’t!

It is amazing how many Republicans in office have caved in to Fascist Donald Trump’s candidacy, but it demonstrates their total delusional nature, that they think that he will magically transform from the sinner he is to a rational, mainstream human being.

By signing on with Trump, the Republicans in the US Senate will be massacred this fall, and we will see a massive repudation of Republican philosophy.

At the same time, intelligent conservatives at the National Review and The Weekly Standard are still holding back, as are the Bush Family and Mitt Romney and Christie Todd Whitman (former New Jersey Governor), and a small group of others who identify as Republicans.

But the Republican Party, which survived the disaster of 1912 with William Howard Taft challenged by Theodore Roosevelt; and 1964 with Barry Goldwater challenged by Nelson Rockefeller, William Scranton, George Romney and others; is no longer, as principle no longer matters for most Republicans and some conservatives.

So this is a transformative election that will go down in history!

George Romney Vs Barry Goldwater, 1964; Mitt Romney Vs Donald Trump, 2016: Is History Repeating Itself?

Fifty two years ago in 1964, Michigan Governor George Romney led  a fight to try to deny the Republican Presidential nomination to Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater, as too an extreme right wing candidate, outside the mainstream and tradition of the party.

Today, in 2016, his son, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP Presidential candidate, is leading a fight to try to deny the Republican Presidential nomination to billionaire real estate mogul Donald Trump.

George Romney failed in his mission, and four years later, although for awhile the frontrunner for the 1968 nomination, failed to become the nominee.

Mitt Romney, in his second try for the nomination, won it in 2012, but failed to defeat Barack Obama.

And it seems clear that the Republican Party will end up nominating Trump, and that Mitt Romney, like his dad, will fail to prevent the implosion of the GOP again.

But this time, the Republican Party will, likely, never recover,  and a new political party name will rise from the ashes, hopefully a more mainstream conservative party, rather than the extremist right wing party that the GOP now is!

I write about the 52 year implosion of the Republican Party on History News Network this week, with my article the headline article of the week, soon to be shared under “Articles” on the right side of this blog.  I include the split in the GOP in 1912 between William Howard Taft and Theodore Roosevelt.

First Time Since 1928 That There Has Been No Nixon Or Bush As Part Of A Winning Presidential Race For The Republican Party!

In 1928, Herbert Hoover won the Presidency, the third Republican President in a row in the 1920s.

Ever since, there have been NINE elections for President in which the Republican nominee has won, for a total of 36 years, while the Democrats have won 12 elections for a total 48 years.

In each election in which the Republicans won, there has been a Richard Nixon (4 times) and a Bush (five times) on the ballot, for President or Vice President, and the GOP has never won an election without one or the other name on the ballot!

Nixon was on the ballot for Vice President in 1952 and 1956, and for the Presidency in 1968 and 1972, while George H. W. Bush was on the ballot for Vice President in 1980 and 1984, and for President in 1988, while his son George W. Bush was on the ballot for President in 2000 and 2004.

Of course, Nixon was on the losing side in 1960 and Bush Sr. in 1992.  So since 1952, there have only been five times that a Nixon or a Bush was not on the ballot, all losing years as well, including Barry Goldwater in 1964, Gerald Ford 1976, Bob Dole in 1996, John McCain in 2008, and Mitt Romney in 2012.

But now they will have to overcome that reality, as Jeb Bush is out of the race, and there will be no Nixon or Bush on the ballot.  Can a Non Nixon or Non Bush actually win the Presidency without a running mate named Nixon or Bush?

This will be a challenge for the Republicans, and it will be interesting to see if there is a hex on the Republicans, which will undermine them in the Presidential race!

The Presidency And “Natural Born” Citizenship—Barry Goldwater, John McCain, Barack Obama, YES! George Romney And Ted Cruz, NO!

The question of “natural born” citizenship has arisen in recent years, with the cases of John McCain, Barack Obama, and now Ted Cruz running for President.

It also showed up when Barry Goldwater was running for President in 1964, and George Romney was planning a Presidential campaign in 1968.

It seems clear that the answer as to who of these individuals were or are eligible to run for President is as follows:

Barry Goldwater WAS eligible to run for President in 1964, as he was born in Arizona, which was a territory at the time of his birth in 1909, becoming a state in 1912!

George Romney never actually declared for President in 1968, but arguably, he was NOT eligible to be President, as he was born to Mormon parents in Mexico!

John McCain, when he ran for President in 2000 and again in 2008, WAS eligible to run for President, as he was born in the Panama Canal Zone, which was a US territory from the time of the Panama Canal treaty in 1903. until its turnover to Panama at the end of 1999. And the Canal Zone had a US Military base, which made it US territory!

Barack Obama, when he ran for President in 2008 and 2012, WAS eligible to run for President, as  he was born in the state of Hawaii, which had become a state in 1959, two years before Obama was born, but even if still a territory, Obama was perfectly eligible for the Presidency!

Finally, Senator Ted Cruz’s campaign for President is in dispute, as Cruz was born in Canada and lived there for four years, so despite his statements, he is technically NOT eligible to be President of the United States!

The answer is that IF you wish your son or daughter to run for President fifty or more years from now, make sure that your baby is born on a military base or diplomatic mission of the United States overseas, NOT on foreign soil not related to the United States!

It is ironic that all of the contested cases of natural born citizenship have been Republicans, with the exception of Obama, amazing when one thinks how the Republican Party in modern times is uptight about citizenship and immigration!

“Establishment” Republicans Are Handing The Presidential Nomination To Donald Trump Or Ted Cruz: Destruction Of The GOP In Process!

The so called “Establishment” Republicans are rapidly destroying each other, and in effect, handing the nomination for President in 2016 to either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, which insures the destruction of the GOP is in process, as neither has any chance of winning the Presidency.

Trump is a total charlatan and Cruz is a right wing ideologue who makes Barry Goldwater, the disastrous 1964 GOP nominee, look like a moderate by comparison!

But instead of uniting around one candidate, and giving up their own egos and lust for power, the four “Establishment” candidates—Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Chris Christie—are attacking each other with a vengeance, which means it is likely that none of them will do better than third in Iowa and New Hampshire, and will destroy any chance of a more centrist candidate being selected!

Whatever one thinks of Scott Walker, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki, they all saw reality, and decided to thin the field in an attempt to avoid the nomination of Trump or Cruz.

But it has not convinced anyone else to drop out, so it looks like gloom and doom for the GOP, with no chance to win the Presidency in 2016, and a good chance that they will lose the US Senate, and see their margin in the House of Representatives cut down dramatically in 2016!

Republican Implosion: 1912, 1964, 2016—Each 52 Years Apart After Lincoln And First Republican Victory In 1860!

The Republican Party was born in 1854 in opposition to the expansion of slavery, and also included abolitionists, those who wanted the end of slavery, in its membership.

Six years later, the Republicans won the majority of the Congress,and in a four way Presidential face, Abraham Lincoln won the Presidency with less than 40 percent of the total national vote.

Within  six weeks of the Presidential inauguration, the Civil War had begun.

For the next half century, the Republicans dominated national politics, winning control of the Presidency for 44 of 52 years (with only Democrat Grover Cleveland winning two nonconsecutive terms in 1884 and 1892), and usually held the Congressional majority with a few exceptions.

But then in 1912, 52 years after the Republicans became the national majority, the party had a “civil war” between President William Howard Taft and his predecessor in the White House, Theodore Roosevelt, leading to the formation of the Progressive (Bull Moose) Party, and TR ending up second and Taft third in popular and electoral votes.  Democrat Woodrow Wilson became President, and promoted a great era of reform, known as the New Freedom, and also adopted TR’s reform platform, known as the New Nationalism.

Despite many shortcomings of Wilson, the domestic reform programs was the greatest in substance in American history.

The Republicans returned to national power in the Presidential Election of 1920 and kept it until Herbert Hoover and the coming of the Great Depression, and Franklin D. Roosevelt then brought Democratic dominance in 1932 and after, with his New Deal, a much greater reform period than that under Wilson.

The Republican Party was only able to win back Congressional majorities in the midterm election of 1946 and again in the Presidential Election of 1952, when Dwight D. Eisenhower won the Presidency, but two years later, the Democrats regained the majority in both houses for the next quarter century.

The more conservative wing of the GOP lost their chance to gain a Presidential nomination when Wendell Willkie, Thomas E. Dewey, Eisenhower, and Richard Nixon won the nominations for President from 1940-1960, but the conservatives overcame the Eastern Establishment, as it was known, and soared to the Presidential nomination with right wing Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater in 1964, 52 years after 1912.

But now we had “civil war” again, as Eastern Establishment Republicans who had competed against Goldwater, including most notably Nelson Rockfeeller, refused to support Goldwater in 1964, and some just sat on their hands, while others backed Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson.  This led to a massive defeat for the GOP in 1964, and LBJ went on to a landslide victory and the promotion of the Democratic Party’s Great Society.

The battle for the future began when Ronald Reagan sought the Presidency against incumbent President Gerald Ford in 1976, but going on to triumph in 1980, creating what conservatives considered a “Golden Age”.  However, after Reagan, the Establishment returned with President George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole, President George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney from 1988 to 2012.

As the GOP became ever more conservative and right wing extremist, and was hijacked by the Tea Party Movement after 2009, the party has reached a point where the Establishment, including some of the 2016 Presidential candidates, but also much of Republicans Congressional leadership, was seen as unacceptable, and we have now witnessed a rebellion against “office holders”, and the rise of Donald Trump, Dr. Benjamin Cason, and Carly Fiorina.

It seems as if the GOP is on the way to another “civil war” 52 years after 1964, wh8ich could be the final implosion of the Republican Party as we know it, and lead to a massive Democratic victory, including the possibility yet again of a third age of reform, spurred on in the past by Wilson and LBJ, and maybe now, either Hillary Clinton, or who can say, maybe even Bernie Sanders!

Donald Trump And Ted Cruz: The Evil Combination And Double Threat To American Values And Decency!

Donald Trump continues to dominate public opinion polls, and behind him and rising is Texas Senator Ted Cruz.

Cruz is unique in the fact that he will NOT criticize anything Trump says about anything, and this is clearly a campaign ploy, as Cruz believes that Trump will not be the party’s nominee, and that he will be able to inherit his supporters.

It seems clear that Trump supporters, when asked, will only consider Cruz as an alternative, and Cruz is suddenly working, also, on improving his image with reporters and fellow politicians, as he has a horrible image as a nasty, egotistical, brusque individual!

One can be assured it is all a “charm offensive” by Cruz, but anyone who has followed his Senate career KNOWS that Cruz is the most dangerous, most extreme, most hateful potential GOP nominee, bar none, even more than Trump on some issues like gay rights and climate change.  Cruz’s extreme right wing Christianity, fueled by his right wing pastor dad’s hateful rants on all kinds of issues, is a warning sign of the danger he represents, were he to become the GOP Presidential nominee.

Cruz has an uncanny similarity to the infamous “witch hunter” of the 1950s Red Scare, Senator Joseph McCarthy, and his lack of ethics and decency is a shared trait.

Cruz would take us back, if given power, and a Republican Congress, to the Gilded Age, as he opposes just about everything that progressives have accomplished since the time of Republican Theodore Roosevelt.

Every indication is, however, that Cruz as the nominee of his party, would cause a massive landslide defeat, a la Barry Goldwater a half century ago in 1964!

But no sane individual would want to test a chance of the possibility of a President Trump OR a President Cruz!

 

The Republican “Establishment”: Can It Overcome Donald Trump, Dr. Benjamin Carson, And Carly Fiorina?

It has been more than 100 days now of the Donald Trump phenomenon, and for the first time, Donald Trump is not first, ending up second behind Dr. Benjamin Carson, in an Iowa public opinion poll.  It seems as if the Trump surge may be starting to fray at the edges.

But the fact that Dr. Benjamin Carson is now ahead of Trump in Iowa, and the fact that Carly Fiorina, while weaker in polls than she was, is also still in the top few in any poll, one has to wonder will the Republican “Establishment”, which has always controlled the party nomination, except for Barry Goldwater a half century ago, be able to recover and choose the nominee of their party?
The fact that Texas Senator Ted Cruz is also doing better in the polls worries the “Establishment”, as Cruz is despised by John McCain, Mitt Romney, and now, even former President George W. Bush, who so stated that “I do not like that guy” at a fundraiser for his brother Jeb Bush, who is floundering badly in the polls, and has cut his campaign staff and spending, signs of a dying campaign.

But with Jeb Bush in trouble, and Chris Christie not improving his situation either, and predicted by many to be on his way out of the race soon, who is there the “Establishment” can have confidence in?   It comes down to a man who despite some stupid statements and low ratings in the polls still seems viable for some reason, and could run a decent campaign against Hillary Clinton, and at least compete in debates and in experience.

That is Ohio Governor John Kasich, with 18 years in the House of Representatives and in his second term as Governor, with a high public opinion rating, and slowly rising in New Hampshire, with little chance in the Iowa caucuses.

This blogger has said before that John Kasich is the best Republican in the race, although he is no J0n Huntsman, who competed in 2012, and is still the best Republican available to be President, although he is not running, and instead is promoting the “No Labels” movement for a bipartisan choice that could unite Democrats, Independents, and Republicans.

Ohio is the crucial state, as anyone who studies Presidential election history is well aware of, and were Kasich to combine with Florida Senator Marco Rubio, a “new generation” and telegenic figure from the other crucial state of Florida, a man who has some connection to the Establishment, but a foot in the camp of the challengers to the Establishment as well, it would be by far the best general election ticket.

Nobody in their right mind can think that Trump, Carson or Fiorina could actually win the election, but a Kasich-Rubio ticket, or even as some suggest, a Rubio-Kasich ticket of two men a generation apart in age as Barack Obama and Joe Biden are, with the “elder statesman” in the supporting role, COULD have a shot at winning over Hillary Clinton, although the odds are clearly, ultimately, against that scenario for the GOP!

 

 

 

 

Republican Party History: Key Dates Of 1860, 1912, 1964, 2016—the 52 Year Syndrome!

The Republican has had a long, controversial history since its founding in 1854 as a party opposed to the expansion of slavery, and containing within itself, those opposed to the institution of slavery itself.

After only six years, the Republican Party reached majority control of both houses of Congress and the White House, with Abraham Lincoln.

From then until 52 years later, 1912, the GOP dominated American politics, except in the South, where the Democrats prevailed.

In 1912, the party split between former President Theodore Roosevelt, an extremely popular and path breaking President, the greatest Republican President since Lincoln, and the incumbent President, William Howard Taft, who was supported by conservatives of the time against TR’s Progressive Party challenge, which led to Taft only winning two states and 23 percent of the national popular vote, and putting Democrat Woodrow Wilson in the White House.

While the Republicans recovered in the 1920s, and almost defeated Wilson in 1916 with their nominee, Charles Evans Hughes, the Great Depression decimated the Republican Party, and the Democrats became the majority party, while the Republicans continued to battle between moderates and conservatives, with the moderates winning the nominations for President, until finally, Senator Barry Goldwater defeated the Establishment  forces led by New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller in 1964, 52 years after the earlier collapse.  Goldwater went on to lose the popular vote in a two way race by a larger margin than ever in American history, with Lyndon B. Johnson winning over 61 percent of the national vote.

This massive defeat did not end the civil war in the GOP, with Gerald Ford just barely winning the nomination over Ronald Reagan in 1976, and losing a very close race to Jimmy Carter.  But Reagan then won the White House, and the right wing felt it was in its glory, although Reagan was, actually, very unpredictable in his policies and views, and would today, probably be rejected by the extreme right wing in control of the GOP in 2015.

The right wing was unhappy with George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole, George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney as insufficiently conservative, and now there is full scale civil war in the GOP, including revolts against Speaker of the House John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.  The rise of Donald Trump, Dr. Benjamin Carson, and Carly Fiorina, all non office holders, demonstrates the right wing desire to fight the GOP establishment, but what it means is certain defeat in 2016.

Likely, no matter who is nominated, the Republican Party is, seemingly, at a 52 year mark, again ready to implode upon itself, and give the Democrats long term control of the Presidency, as the situation now appears!