Arizona

Sandy Hook Elementary School Another In A Long Line Of Tragedies That Will Never End Unless There Is Effective Gun Control Legislation!

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The tragedy at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut is just the latest in a long line of gun tragedies, while the gun industry and the National Rifle Association, in the mad dash for capitalistic profit, resist ANY regulation of those who are able to obtain weapons, including assault rifles that no one needs!

If it is not elementary school children in Connecticut; or patrons in a movie theater in Colorado; or worshipers in a church in Wisconsin; or shoppers in a mall in Oregon; or constituents of a Congresswoman in Arizona, it may very well be a President of the United States, or a United States Senator, or a rock musician, or an actor, or an athlete who in some way triggers mental illness in some crackpot who wants fame, and makes for new gun victims!

Of course, no gun legislation will prevent all murders, but with 11,000 murders per year because of gun violence, more than any nation in the world, we cannot sit by and just “tsk tsk”, and do nothing!

We need effective gun regulation, and background checks of people before they can purchase weapons legally, and banning of all assault weapons. We can also decide that people cannot carry guns into bars, onto college campuses, into public schools, into hospitals, into government buildings, and prosecute anyone who endangers others by his or her recklessness!

We have to teach our children that guns are not fun, or not just to be used for target practice, and to stop glorifying hunting of birds and animals, as that is worshiping and glorifying death!

We must promote protection, but not think that everyone being strapped with a gun is going to promote safety in all public places, as just the opposite is true!

And this has nothing to do with God, as in the name of God, we have seen loads of bloodshed and death and warfare in human history, and religion has done more to promote hate and division, because of those fanatics believing their religious beliefs justify such crimes!

We are on the road to civil war, if we do not control the level of violence that we claim cannot be controlled, throw up our hands, and just keep on counting corpses!

For some gun nuts, only when they lose their own loved ones will they finally “get it”, and we need our government leaders to stop fighting politically, and look at gun violence as just as needy of a response as when we were attacked at Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, and at the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001!

The Reality Of The Next Decade: Split Government Control!

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It is now clear that our political system is facing a long period, probably at least a decade, of split government control on the national level!

The Democratic Party has a long term edge with the electorate, as a result of the two Barack Obama Presidential victories, with the only difference being the loss in 2012 of Indiana and North Carolina.

But with the growing Hispanic and Latino population in Arizona, Texas, and Georgia, the likelihood of those states turning “blue’ from “red” over this decade, is becoming more likely, and with that manifestation, the Electoral College situation will become much more one sided than it is now, and yet still allow for some states to wander over to the other side without affecting a Democratic victory for the White House.

Additionally, with the surprise gain in seats by the Democrats in the US Senate, only losing one state, Nebraska, and gaining Maine, Massachusetts, and Indiana in return, and more Republican seats up for reelection in 2014, the likelihood of the Senate staying majority Democratic for the long term, continues to grow.

However, with the gerrymandering of seats by Republican legislatures and Governors in 2010, even though the Democrats won more votes for the US House of Representatives, the Republicans were able to hold on to the majority, although reduced by about eight seats. The Democrats will have trouble gaining 17 seats or more because of the gerrymandering, and even if they do gain a slight edge, could easily lose it two or four years after winning the majority.

So the likelihood of a Democratic President, Democratic Senate, and a Republican House becomes more a normal situation until at least the next reapportionment of seats after the 2020 Census, and the Presidential and Congressional Elections of that year, but with the advantage that 2020 is a Presidential year, while 2010 was not.

So this means the odds of a long range stalemate and gridlock in American politics are clear cut!

Voting Rights Act Under Review, As Arizona, Florida And Other States Show Evidence Of Voter Suppression

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The Supreme Court has accepted a case on the validity of continuation of federal oversight of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, with the argument that states can handle their voting effectively, without discrimination.

Are such advocates getting high on drugs?

It is CLEAR CUT that Arizona, Florida and other states were working to discriminate against people of color and poor people in the recent election!

Florida was unable to handle its voting process expeditiously, and was abusive in cutting down days of voting from 14 to 8, thanks to the GOP legislature and Governor Rick Scott!

Arizona has still not counted all the votes, and Governor Jan Brewer and Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio are the worst abusers of voting rights, and both promote intimidation of Hispanics and Latinos, and act as if they are above the law!

Other states have promoted intimidation of Hispanics and Latinos, including Alabama specifically, and many states have promoted voter suppression laws.

How could a reasonable Supreme Court do anything other than uphold the need for continued monitoring of voting?

And yet this right wing majority on the Court could very well destroy one of the path mark pieces of legislation under Lyndon B. Johnson, and bring us back to the age of “Jim Crow”!

It i s hoped that Justice Anthony Kennedy (often the swing vote), and or Chief Justice John Roberts will join the four liberal members of the Court in upholding the continued enforcement of the Voting Rights Act. Roberts, having surprised everyone, with his decisive vote to uphold ObamaCare, hopefully will surprise us again with an open mind, and come through, even if Kennedy fails to do so.

To have advancements in American democracy endangered 50 years later is a true disgrace!

Final Projection On Presidential Race: Obama-Biden 332 Electoral Votes, Romney-Ryan 206 Electoral Votes

Ronald 6 Comments

This author has spent a lot of time and effort in studying, analyzing, evaluating the Presidential Election contest of 2012, and is now ready to project the final result.

Barack Obama has been long predicted to win at least 237 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 191 electoral votes, with nine states in play as “swing” or “battleground” states, all of which Obama won in 2008.

The prediction that the author wishes to make is that Obama will win ALL of the nine competitive states, except North Carolina, giving him 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206 electoral votes!

So Obama will win New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado, with a total of 95 electoral votes, added to the 237, making the final total of 332 electoral votes.

Romney, by winning the 15 electoral votes of North Carolina, will go from 191 to 206 in the final total of electoral votes.

It also means that Obama will have won every state he won in 2008, except Indiana and North Carolina, and a total of 26 states and the District of Columbia. Romney will win 24 states.

Also, expect that the popular vote will be close in North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Montana, with Romney winning, but with hints that Democrats will have a grand opportunity to win those states in 2016 and beyond, with the growing Hispanic-Latino vote. The first hint will be the likely victories for the Senate of Democrats Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Richard Carmona in Arizona.

Additionally, Obama should win about 52 percent of the vote to 47 percent of the vote for Romney, with Gary Johnson and other third party candidates winning slightly more than one percent of the total vote.

This means Obama will have won by a slightly smaller percentage of the popular vote and fewer electoral votes, but with the factor of reapportionment of seats due to the Census of 2010 changing downward many of the Frost Belt states which support Barack Obama, plus the loss of North Carolina and Indiana from 2008.

Still, overall, a very impressive performance can be expected!

Comments on this projection of the results are welcome!

The REAL Issues Of 2012 That Are Being Ignored In The Presidential Campaign

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If one follows the Presidential campaign of 2012, one would think that ONLY the economy matters.

YES, the economy matters, but the newest jobs report demonstrates that this nation is on the mend, and that over the next Presidential term, the economy will recover, with some experts saying that up to 12 million jobs will be created, whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney wins the White House on Tuesday.

Others would say the danger of Iran is the major issue, but even on that, it is clear that both Obama and Romney would react similarly to an actual Iranian attack on Israel or any other part of the Middle East.

So the REAL issues are not the economy or Iran!

Instead, they are the following, although ignored in campaign rhetoric:

Climate Change or Global Warming—the reality of it, as demonstrated yet again by Hurricane Sandy, and the need to take the lead in moving away from oil and coal as the major energy resources. But, of course, Republicans and conservatives deny the reality of this threat, and the oil and coal industries do everything they can to protect themselves at the expense of the nation in the long run.

Gun Violence—as demonstrated by what happened so many times in the past few years, including Tucson, Arizona in 2011 to Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords; the mass murders in the Aurora, Colorado movie complex in 2012; the constant murders in cities such as Chicago, often ignored because the victims are African Americans; and so many other cases. And again, the Republicans and conservatives fight any type of gun control, and allow the National Rifle Association to hold America hostage.

Education—the dire need to promote more people attending and graduating four year colleges and universities. Many would say that having a four year degree does not guarantee that one gets the job he wants or needs. While that is true, the unemployment figures make clear that those with a four year degree or more have an unemployment rate under FOUR percent, while those with less education or dropping out of school have an unemployment rate of TWELVE percent! Is there any evidence other than this to convince parents and children of the urgency of getting an education through a four year degree? And besides, there are intangibles other than just getting a degree for a job, such as improving one’s basic skills of reading, writing, and speaking, and improving one’s mind and knowledge; making one a better person in social situations and parent situations; and raising people up from ignorance, conspiracy theory beliefs, and over reliance on religious doctrine, which unfortunately makes many people unwilling to reason for themselves, and just accept gospel as absolute fact. And of course, Republicans and conservatives argue against extra funding and assistance for education, and would prefer to lean on organized religion to “control” the masses, keep them ignorant, and willing, therefore, to accept ideas without questioning or challenge!

The Supreme Court—not understood by many for the important role it plays, and will continue to play, and the urgency of having a President who will select nominees who wish to look to the future, and not the past, and prevent regression politically, socially, and economically back to the Gilded Age and the 1920s. The Republicans and conservatives and Mitt Romney want more Antonin Scalias, Clarence Thomases, and Samuel Alitos, to insure that we go backward for the next 30 years! So the election of Barack Obama is urgent for the future of constitutional law and the preservation of the advancements of the Earl Warren and Warren Burger Supreme Courts.

These issues mentioned above SHOULD be understood before people, who have not voted before Tuesday, vote for our next President, and the best decision for any sane individual is to vote for the candidate who represents a willingness to deal with the future, President Barack Obama!

Five Republican Senate Seats In Danger Of Being Won By Democrats In 2012

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The usual political line is that the Democrats are in danger of losing control of the Senate, with 23 Democratic or Independent seats up for election in 2012, as compared to only 10 Republican seats.

But actually, five of the ten GOP Senate seats are in play, with Republicans on the defensive!

This includes:

Maine—where retiring Senator Olympia Snowe seems likely to be replaced by Independent Angus King, former Governor of the state, thought to be likely to caucus with the Democrats if he wins, based on greater agreement with Democratic principles.

Massachusetts—where Senator Scott Brown, who replaced Ted Kennedy in 2010, is behind in many polls to consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren, in a state so strongly Democratic that Brown’s victory in 2010 was seen as an outlier.

Indiana—where retiring Senator Richard Lugar may be replaced by Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly , because the GOP nominee, Richard Mourdock, has been labeled a Tea Party extremist, unwilling to work across the aisle with Democrats.

Nevada—where appointed Senator Dean Heller is having a rough race against long term Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley.

Arizona—where Senator Jon Kyl is retiring, but the Republican nominee, Jeff Flake, is facing a surprisingly tough battle against Democrat Richard Carmona. former Surgeon General of the United States. Carmona has a distinguished law enforcement and medical career, and is seen as having a really good chance to replace Kyl, and being Hispanic (Puerto Rican) in Arizona is certainly a positive, as well as his biography.

If one had to put betting money on these five races, it would be a good bet that Maine, Massachusetts, and Arizona will go Democratic in Senate races, with Indiana and Nevada tougher races.

That would mean a three seat gain for the Democrats, making it much tougher for Republicans to become a majority, as then they would need at least six to seven Democratic held seats out of 12 seats seen as in play, with 11 others of the total 23 seats seen as NOT in play!

An analysis of Democratic seats in contention will follow in the coming days!

“Swing” States Down To Eight, Narrowing Romney Chances Of Winning Presidency!

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The Mitt Romney Presidential campaign has decided to buy advertising time on television in only eight states, narrowing the chance that the former Massachusetts Governor can win the Presidency.

Eliminated as places of opportunity are Michigan, the birthplace and childhood of Romney, and the state that his father was Governor in the 1960s; Wisconsin, the birthplace and home of his running mate, Paul Ryan; and Pennsylvania, despite the well known white male battleground of western Pennsylvania, often thought to be an Achilles Heel for Barack Obama!

So what are the states still in play?

New Hampshire–4 electoral votes
Virginia–13 electoral votes
North Carolina–15 electoral votes
Florida–29 electoral votes
Ohio–18 electoral votes
Iowa–6 electoral votes
Colorado–9 electoral votes
Nevada–6 electoral votes

The total electoral votes in play are 100, while Obama leads with 247 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney has 191 electoral votes from 23 states. Remember that the winner of the election must have 270 electoral votes.

So, with the updated realities that even Romney’s advertising campaign reflects, Obama wins If

he wins Florida (29 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Virginia (31 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and North Carolina (33 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Iowa or Nevada (24 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Colorado (27 electoral votes)
he wins New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Colorado (24 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Iowa and Nevada (27 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Iowa and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Colorado and New Hampshire (26 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia, Colorado, and either Iowa or Nevada (28 electoral votes)

So these are ELEVEN scenarios where Barack Obama has the advantage–needing only between one and four states of the eight “swing” states to win the Presidency in the Electoral College!

The unemployment rate is lower than the national average in New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio and Iowa, while higher in North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

So if one were to assume that the four states that have the lower unemployment rate than the national average go to Obama, he wins 41 electoral votes, for a grand total of 288 electoral votes.

Of course, there are five states, that are considered “red” or Republican states, that actually are in play, although expected to go to Romney. These are Indiana (11 electoral votes), which went to Obama in 2008; Missouri (10 electoral votes), which was won by John McCain in 2008 by only about 4,000 votes; Montana (3 electoral votes), which is becoming more Democratic; Arizona (11 electoral votes), which is moving toward Democratic over time with the growing Hispanic vote, and the controversial immigration law under Governor Jan Brewer; and Georgia (16 electoral votes), which is gaining a large Hispanic population, which means it will likely trend Democratic over the next few election cycles. Were all of these to go Democratic in a close vote situation, Obama could, theoretically, win 51 more electoral votes!

So, IF Obama were to win all of the eight “swing states” now in play, based on Romney’s decision as to what states to spend money on advertising, he would go from what seems clearly 247 electoral votes to 347 electoral votes–meaning he would have won all of the states he won in 2008, except for Indiana!

This is 18 electoral votes fewer than in 2008, when Obama won 365 electoral votes–due to the theoretical loss of Indiana (11 electoral votes), plus the fact that the states he won lost a total of 7 electoral votes due to reapportionment of seats in Congress, based on the 2010 Census.

But IF Obama were to win the “red” states that could be in play, listed above, a total of five states with 51 electoral votes, his highest theoretical total of electoral votes would reach 398 electoral votes, meaning Romney would win only 140 electoral votes, with Obama winning 32 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney winning 18 states!

The ultimate point of this discussion is to make it clear that the odds of Obama being re-elected are very high, despite the supposedly tight popular vote on a national level, which really proves nothing, as the polls on popular vote in the eight “swing” states demonstrate that Obama is ahead in all of them, except in North Carolina and Colorado, so to bet against Obama would be a losing bet, best thought about before being placed, as the odds of losing large amounts of money is extremely a likely occurrence!

The Capture Of The Republican Party By Right Wing Zealots: A Threat To America’s Future!

Ronald 2 Comments

Sadly, as has been stated in many posts on this blog, the Republican Party of Lincoln, TR, Ike, and even Ford, Reagan, and the Bushes, has been taken captive by right wing zealots, who have managed to make Mitt Romney follow their lead, and add ideologue Paul Ryan to his Presidential ticket for 2012.

The fact that Romney and Ryan are peddling propaganda, lies, and myths at an extraordinary rate, and managing to fool millions of Americans to think that the party represents their interests, is mind boggling.

This week, at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, we have an opportunity to explode the myths that have been built up by the GOP, and to show just how dangerous the party has become, as it has left the mainstream and become a party no one with intelligence and a sense of history could possibly endorse.

There is a need to purge the evil elements of the party, in order to save it for the future competition for power, or else a new party will have to replace it sometime soon!

When a party can allow religious conservatives to control a woman’s future even on the subject of rape as suggested by Missouri Congressman Todd Akin, and to demand vaginal probes before an abortion will be allowed, as Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia promoted, then we know that the party has been seized by the extremism of Tony Perkins and the Family Research Council.

And the Family Research Council, judged a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center for its extreme promotion of hatred toward LGBT people, and lacking concern for teenagers harassed for their sexuality to the point of suicide, adds concern for the future of tolerance and open mindedness in America.

The growing influence of a supposed historian, David Barton, who is rewriting the history of America as a “Christian” nation, and has been denounced by reputable historians for his distorted views of all kinds of personalities and issues, is having an effect on the Texas schoolbook adoption of standards of what is taught, which affects the whole nation. Barton has no credentials to be called an “expert” on the truth and reality of American history, but carries a lot of weight in GOP circles, nevertheless.

Meanwhile, Kris Kobach, the Kansas Secretary of State, has gained a lot of influence in promotion of anti immigrant legislation, including the laws in Arizona and Alabama. He has also been a leader in voter suppression activities, action against gay rights, support of no limits on guns, and has also promoted hysteria against so called “Sharia” or Muslim religious laws, which actually have no effect or impact, but are talked about to stir up insecure citizens to think we are about to be taken over by Muslims.

Additionally, Dick Armey, former GOP House Majority Leader in the 1990s, has worked to promote Tea Party takeover in the House and Senate, and is actively involved now in the races that led to Richard Mourdock, Debbie Fischer, and Ted Cruz winning Senate nominations in Indiana, Nebraska, and Texas.

Additionally, the no tax increase crowd, no matter what the circumstances, continues to hold sway with the power and influence of Grover Norquist of Americans For Tax Reform, as his group is called.

The dangers represented by what Bob McDonnell, Todd Akin, Tony Perkins, David Barton, Kris Kobach, Dick Armey, and Grover Norquist promote is massive, and Americans need to understand the threat to our social, economic and political future represented by the right wing zealots in the Republican party that has fallen on difficult times, and needs to be cleansed!

The Republican Party Totally Changed From Its Founding: More Southernized Than Ever Before!

Ronald 1 Comment

The Republican Party started as a party of anti slavery and anti slavery expansion, and became anathema in the South, fighting the Confederacy during the Civil War, and imposing military Reconstruction on the South after the Civil War.

For a century, the South was solidly Democratic in reaction, and the South subjugated African Americans in segregation and discrimination, while the GOP abandoned African Americans after 1877.

In the 1960s, moderate and liberal Republicans supported the passage of the civil rights laws, but southern Democrats started to veer to the Republican Party in reaction to President Lyndon B. Johnson’s advocacy and promotion of civil rights, with Senator Strom Thurmond of South Carolina leading the march to the GOP.

Richard Nixon pursued a Southern strategy, and after Ronald Reagan became President, the trend to “Southernization” continued, and now it has reached full development, even though we have two Northerners–Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Paul Ryan of Wisconsin–on the Presidential ticket.

The Republican Party of 2012, based on its platform and its rhetoric, has hostility toward minorities, promotion of racism against Barack Obama, hatred of national government, belief in exploitation of low wage workers, and promotes religion over science, all reflective of the backward traditions of the Old South, which remains the poorest part of the nation economically, and yet is willing to support the Republican Party out of fear of change and modernization.

But, ironically, this is the last gasp of this trend, as the country is changing to a multi ethnic society, and the white population that is so anti change is rapidly becoming a smaller portion of the nation, and will be so, in a very obvious way, by the time of the Census of 2020 and after, when the Hispanic and Latino population of Texas and Arizona and Florida will likely turn those states “blue”,. from their momentary “red” status.

So the Republican Party is in the death throes of its Southernization, as even Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia are being changed demographically, rapidly before our eyes!

Republican Party Platform So Far To The Right Politically That It Cannot Appeal To Moderates And Independents!

Ronald 1 Comment

The Republican Party is formulating its platform a week before the Republican National Convention in Tampa next week, and it is so far to the Right politically, that it will have the effect of alienating to moderates and Independents!

The platform denies any abortions, no matter whether due to rape, incest, or life of the mother.

The platform takes a harsh stand on immigration, in line with the Arizona and Alabama laws now being sued in federal court by the Justice Department.

The platform supports strict ID voters laws, designed to suppress the votes of the young, the elderly, the poor, and minorities.

The platform supports the Ryan budget, including the privatization of Medicare and the massive tax cuts for the wealthy, while cutting Food Stamps, Pell Grants, and other programs for the middle class and the poor.

The platform refuses to accept gay rights, including gay marriage, but also rejects any recognition of civil unions, keeping gay Americans second class citizens!

These are just some of the outrageous planks in the GOP platform, and it is impossible to imagine that sane people will wish to support such a vindictive, extremist platform that would be designed to undermine the rights, freedoms, and privileges of millions of Americans!

Moderate Republicans will flee from a party they no longer recognize, and Independents will, by large margins, swing over to the Democrats, because there will be no alternative choice that is rational and reasonable!