President Obama has decided to take a major gamble in diplomacy by agreeing to direct talks with North Korea’s government in the context of the six party talks (US, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia), and also with Iran’s hardline government in the form of seven party talks (US, Iran, Great Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China). The discussions with Iran would be the first substantive talks since the Iranian Revolution of 1979.
The decision to deal with these two nations, considered by many observers to be the two most dangerous and intransigent nations on earth, is a bold move that could, if things work out, be a real coup for Obama, but if the talks fail, could be seen as a reckless, unwise failure that makes the world more dangerous.
There is a tendency to be pessimistic about both nations being willing to act reasonably, and therefore, Obama runs a tremendous risk of being portrayed as naive and delusional, and putting South Korea and Israel particularly in a tremendous state of danger and insecurity.
The way that Barack Obama confronts issues insures that he might be seen in the long run as a genius, or as a total disaster. Certainly, he can be said, like Harry Truman, to have guts and courage. The question is whether that will be enough to promote success.