Posts Tagged Public Opinion Polls
The massive problems with the roll out of ObamaCare could hurt the Democrats in midterm elections coming up in November 2014.
The Republicans, by their shutting down of the government, were on the defensive, but now the unbelievable troubles with ObamaCare seem to be wiping out the edge that the Democrats had just two months ago.
It is clear that the American population is changing its views on government and major issues, based on each new controversy which arises, and that anything could happen eleven months from now.
It is also evident that IF the American people could defeat all incumbents, they would do so, and that many, at least in theory, would like a new political party.
But the American system of government is such that the reality of defeating incumbents is very difficult, and only a small percentage will be defeated next year. At the same time, having new political parties that can compete for power and influence is nearly impossible, as our party system, with its ups and its downs, has not changed in 160 years when 2014 arrives next month.
We are in a very difficult period politically, and trying to predict the outcome of the midterm elections, and even the Presidential race of 2016, has become ever more something one would not wish to bet on!
A CNN poll indicates that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is seven points ahead of Congressman Paul Ryan, the Republican Vice Presidential nominee in 2012, for the Presidential race in 2016; and with Hillary Clinton far ahead of Joe Biden, but Biden far ahead of anyone else in the Democratic field for 2016.
But one must be aware that this far out, to assume that Christie and Clinton will be the nominees, or that Ryan and Biden will be the backup nominees, is not a good bet at all.
Face the facts: Christie’s name has been in the news because of his landslide victory in New Jersey in an off year election, where his story was the major one to report. Ryan, having been the VP nominee, is well known. Hillary Clinton has been seen as a public figure constantly, most recently as Secretary of State, and Joe Biden has been a very active Vice President.
There is a very good chance that someone else will be the nominee in the GOP, while less likely for the Democrats, where Hillary and Joe seem to have a lead that is unlikely to be surpassed, particularly for Hillary over Joe.
But one only has to look at the surprises of history, including Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, to know that anything is possible in a Presidential race this far out from the actual election year.
A new CNN poll demonstrates that President Barack Obama’s popularity ratings are falling fast, and the question is whether he can revive his popularity, or will be seen as a failed President in the three remaining years of his Presidency.
53 percent now see him as not honest and trustworthy; only 40 percent consider him capable of operating the government effectively.
But 60 percent still believe he has a vision for the country’s future; and 70 percent still see him as likable, but even those numbers are lower.
Obama still, however, is seen in a positive way personally overall, but his ability to get things done has suffered dramatically in 2013, and particularly over the massive failure of the launch of ObamaCare.
And now, there is new conflict over the deal with Iran, with many seeing it as a disaster in the making, almost like a Munich 1938 agreement, which led to World War II. The word being bandied about is “appeasement”.
The immigration bill is stalled in Congress, and the likelihood of any kind of cooperation with the Republicans in Congress seem highly doubtful.
So the question is what will happen in the next three years, and it is anyone’s guess as to how Obama will fare, and look in the eyes of history.
Republicans In Congress Demonstrate Unbelievable Arrogance, And Ignore Public Opinion, Even Of Republican Voters!
The House Republicans are the most reactionary group seen in Congress in modern times, as evidence now shows that they are opposing not only general public opinion, but also that of voters of their own party, along with Independents and Democrats!
Issues where this is true include the following where some Republicans supported the proposed legislation in the Senate:
ENDA–the bill to stop discrimination in employment against gays and transgendered people, passed 64-32 in the Senate.
Comprehensive Immigration Reform, which passed the Senate 68-32.
At the same time, Republicans in both houses of Congress are fighting against the following, which are also supported by Republicans in polls, along with Democrats and Independents.
The Minimum Wage increase legislation to $9 an hour.
Background Checks on Gun Purchases
Who would think that a political party could ignore the views of its own voters and expect to stay in office? It makes one wonder how the GOP can believe it will keep power in the House and gain control of the Senate, as they seem to believe they can accomplish, when they have such a high level of arrogance as they are demonstrating!
Barack Obama became our 44th President on this day five years ago, and on this fifth anniversary, he has reached his low point in public opinion polls, with 42 percent satisfied with his performance.
The likelihood is that Obama’s poll ratings will continue to go down, due to the total disaster of the inception of the ObamaCare website, plus the horrible mistake of Obama claiming that anyone could keep his health care plan if satisfied with it.
The glitches in the website are bad enough, but the fact that 5 percent, about 15 million Americans, are discovering that their health care plans are being canceled, and that the future of their health care is unsettled, and that many seem to be likely to pay a lot more for health care, if not resolved soon in a satisfactory manner, could destroy the signature achievement of the Obama Presidency.
Obama is shown to have lied, shown to be arrogant in refusing to listen to experts on the website matter, and to have thought that the fact that the purpose was to improve health care would, somehow, overcome the insecurity and uncertainty of millions of Americans suddenly having the health care plans they had taken away from them so abruptly.
It is said that millions of Americans will benefit from ObamaCare, but the fact that other millions are being victimized in coverage and cost, to fit the model that the government wants them to have, could destroy any chance of the long term success of ObamaCare.
This could ruin the long term legacy of Obama, and hurt the Democratic Party and those who believe in progressivism and liberal values.
So today is not a day to celebrate, but rather to hope that the disaster that has been occurring can be resolved very soon in a satisfactory manner, for those affected, and for the future of the concept that the federal government can do things right, as to promote anything else, means a return to abuses by private business interests without government oversight in the interests of the American people.
With the disgust over the disaster of the 113th Congress, and the GOP inspired government shutdown, the public opinion support for a third party has risen to its highest point in a decade, with 60 percent stating such a belief, in a Gallup Poll.
The frustration is understandable, but the American system of government has never moved toward a three party system, which would create the need for coalitions, and prevent passage of legislation, making it more difficult than the split Congress has demonstrated.
Third party history has been one of protest, and having an effect on who wins the Presidency, and promoting new ideas that often are later accepted by one or the other major political parties.
What is much more likely than a third party competing with the two major parties is a political realignment, with the Democrats likely to benefit by the civil war in the Republican Party.
And the Tea Party Movement is doomed, as the American people are catching on as to how destructive and negative that movement has been in the past four years.
The Republican Party has had a history of some great leaders and accomplishments, but their ability to compete is doomed, until and when they recognize that moving to the Far Right is a disaster, and that they must appeal to the voting groups that they have antagonized, including minorities, the young, woman, labor, and the struggling middle class.
And they must repudiate the hold of religion over their party, and emphasize tolerance, open mindedness, and a belief in the power of science, or else they will never be competing, and might be replaced by a new party!
The 112th Congress of 2011-2012 produced the fewest laws in modern history, a total of 283. It was thought that was a low that could not be surpassed.
But the present 113th Congress is reaching a new low that is hard to conceptualize, as it has passed only 36 laws, and the public opinion rating of Congress is at an all time low, about 10 percent, with a poll showing that a majority of Americans believe that a random group of people chosen to replace the present Congress could do a better job!
Both parties are suffering in public opinion, but the Republican Party brand is in free fall, as a result of shutting down the government for 16 days and threatening rejection of the raising of the debt ceiling. The GOP is involved in a civil war between the establishment and the libertarians and Tea Party Movement, and Wall Street is working to support establishment, mainstream conservatives over the Tea Party brand in Congressional races for 2014, with the distinct possibility that the Democrats have a chance to gain control of the House of Representatives, and keep control of the US Senate.
The gerrymandering of House districts, however, makes taking over the House a major problem for Democrats for the remainder of the decade, but since only 17 seats are needed to gain the majority, the potential is there, if the public opinion ratings of the Republicans continue their collapse that is going on at the moment.
The problem is that a year is a long time in American politics, and anything can happen, as people have short memories!
The Republican Party has seen 144 members of the House of Representatives and 18 in the US Senate voting for default on the national debt!
The Republican Party has seen itself held accountable for an increase in government spending caused by the shutdown of the government, to the tune of $24 billion, instead of having 800,000 civil servants working for 16 days, but now getting back pay rightfully for their forced period out of work!
The Republican Party has shown it does not give a damn for the economic and emotional turmoil it caused millions of Americans by their reckless, selfish, delusional behavior!
The Republican Party has shown it has no limits in its determination to destroy this President, but it has failed miserably!
The Republican Party allowed itself to be hijacked by Ted Cruz and the Tea Party Movement, and it has lost all respectability and credibility to achieve control of the White House, the Senate, and at some point, the House of Representatives, as they have shown themselves to be no longer representative of a broad coalition needed to be taken seriously as a national party based on coalition and compromise!
Public opinion polls show the GOP in crisis mode, with the lowest ratings in recorded history for a major political party since polls began in the mid 1930s!
The only hope for a revival of the Republican Party is to:
Repudiate Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, Rand Paul, James Inhofe, Marco Rubio and other Tea Party Senators.
Repudiate the Tea Party Movement in the House of Representatives.
Repudiate the talk show hosts on radio and Fox News Channel.
Repudiate the Heritage Foundation and other right wing think tanks, and come back to the moderate center which led to the elections of Eisenhower, Nixon, the Bushes, and yes, even Ronald Reagan, who would be mortified as to how right wing extremist the GOP has allowed itself to become.
But will the Republican Party take any or all of these actions? Do not hold your breath on this!
Polls this past week demonstrate how a majority of Americans are totally disgusted with the stalemate and gridlock in the federal government, which has become a norm of American politics.
Sixty percent in a poll would want to replace every member of Congress, and only eleven percent have a positive view of Congress, an all time low.
The Republican Party brand has suffered heavily, although the Democrats are not exactly looked upon as a paragon of virtue either by the American people.
Of course, there is no way that all members of Congress could be defeated due to the fact that the US Senate has only one third of its seats up for election every two years.
Additionally, while the House of Representatives faces election of all of its members every two years, the reality of gerrymandering makes replacement of incumbents highly unlikely, with maybe ten percent of the seats truly competitive, if that much.
And of course, were it possible to defeat all members, it would be unwise, because that would leave us with new members with total lack of experience and expertise, and this is the the problem with the Tea Party Republicans, who mostly come into government without any knowledge or understanding of what is possible in government, and the role of compromise in making a political system work.
All that a new Congress would accomplish is the growing power of unelected staff, which would be the only continuity in American government, and that would not be a good situation.
What can be done is to have higher turnout for midterm elections, with the hope that it might lead to the party of whoever is President having a real mandate to accomplish the goals that any President has been elected on two years earlier. The tradition has been that the party in the White House loses seats, with a lower turnout by party faithful.
Of course, if somehow, gerrymandering could be overcome, and the filibuster in the Senate modified, real progress and continuity and compromise would be more likely, but that is, at this time, a utopian dream, sad to say!
President Barack Obama faces a major crisis and moment next Tuesday, September 10, as he speaks to the nation regarding the Syria Chemical Warfare controversy, at a time when many of his liberal and progressive allies, who should know better, have abandoned him and joined the far Right in calling for no action on this war crime by the Assad regime in Damascus!
It seems clear that not only many Democrats, but also MSNBC, public opinion polls, and town halls are making clear that they wish no action on Syria, because of fear of another Middle East war, with memories of Iraq still fresh as a wound.
But Presidents are not required to follow public opinion, particularly when so often, it is ill informed or just plain wrong!
We do not govern by emotion or mass public opinion, thank goodness, as if we had, we would never have made it through so many crises in our history!
The President has to have guts and courage and principle, and take action, and the reaction of the people be considered, but not be decisive, as, after all, he has more knowledge, gathered intelligence, and understanding of events around the world than anyone else, other than his close advisers!
Our great Presidents did what they had to do, no matter what was popular opinion, and they were pilloried for it, but in the long run of history, they have turned out quite well, to say the least!
These courageous Presidents include Abraham Lincoln, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Harry Truman, who are listed in the 2009 C Span poll of Presidents, judged by historians and political scientists, as Numbers 1, 3 and 5 among our 43 Presidents!
So Obama needs to take action, no matter what Congress, the news media, and ill informed and overly emotional public opinion feel, and worry about the consequences later!
He needs to make an appeal to reason and reality, but whatever happens, he will be criticized, and better to be on the side of what is ethical and moral!
Yes, he might face impeachment for taking action against public opinion, but really, that will simply be an excuse, since radical Right elements of the loony party called the Republicans, are looking for an excuse to do so, but it is all an exercise in futility, as it was for Bill Clinton in 1998-1999, when everyone knew impeachment would not succeed, and that the GOP would suffer for it, as totally unjustified.
No way will Obama ever be removed by impeachment charges and trial, so go for it, enemies and haters, and Obama will stand strong in any case!
So Barack Obama needs to show “cajones”, and prove he can be a President who will do what is right, and take whatever punishment is needed, as in history, he will be looked upon kindly if he does, and poorly if he caves in on this most important moment of his Presidency!