Public Opinion Polls

Presidential Debates Are Worthless, Unless Donald Trump Agrees To Two Conditions: Taxes Revealed, And Fact Checker For Trump Lies!

There is no point to Joe Biden agreeing to debate with Donald Trump, unless Trump agrees to reveal his tax records, as Joe Biden has done, AND it is also agreed that there will be a fact checking team approved by both candidates to be hired by the non partisan Commission on Presidential Debates.

That team would report with ten minutes left in the debate any misleading statements, phony numbers, or outright lies uttered by either candidate.

Trump lies as he breathes, as Thomas Friedman of the New York Times said last month, and Biden should not allow that to go unanswered by a fact checking team at the debate.

Since Biden is comfortably ahead in all polls, he gains nothing by debates, and by refusing to debate, will infuriate Trump, who will go even more looney.

Trump knows he is losing, and Joe Biden should just continue to make public statements before small audiences with proper distancing. Biden is being helped by various Republican groups who are dedicated to Trump’s defeat as the only way to revive the party of Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, and Dwight D. Eisenhower.

Joe Biden has been right since January on the CoronaVirus Pandemic, and should make the effort to win as many states as possible, but the debates make no sense at this point, unless Trump agrees to the two conditions mentioned above, which will not occur!

Is “White Flight” Against Republicans And Donald Trump Occurring In 2020?

Based on recent polls that seem unbelievable, the idea of “White Flight” from Republicans might be happening.

This would be due to the CoronaVirus Pandemic, the collapse of the economy, but also due to the shock and outrage of many people toward Donald Trump, and his behavior in the Presidency these past three and a half years!

His incompetence and lack of compassion and empathy is making many white voters reconsider the upcoming elections.

So the number of states experiencing polls that show Republicans running behind for the Congress, as well as the President, are multiplying.

Many suburban women, college educated whites, independents, moderate Republicans, and all age groups among whites, except for seniors, are moving toward the possibility of voting for Democrats in Congress, and also for former Vice President Joe Biden.

There is still, theoretically, time for many of these people to reconsider their move away from Trump and the Republican Party, but since events are not going to get better anytime soon, and actually are worsening daily, that is highly unlikely.

So the situation looks as follows:

As indicated in earlier blog posts, the 20 states and Washington DC, which voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, seem securely in Joe Biden’s camp.

Add to this the six states that determined the election for Donald Trump in the Electoral College, all having voted for Barack Obama in 2012–Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida. As of now, the latter four seem clearly in Biden’s camp, and would insure a Democratic victory for the White House.

But Ohio and Iowa also show leanings toward Biden, and other states, thought to be “Red”, also are showing evidence of the same leanings, including North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, but also Kansas, Montana, Indiana and Missouri, and the 2nd district of Nebraska. This would mean 443 electoral votes to 95, as this author and blogger predicted on April 30.

So 34 states could go to Biden, and the Republican US Senators or open seats running in Maine, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, two in Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Kansas, and Montana are all in danger as well.

South Carolina and Kentucky seem hard to overcome on the Presidential level, but both Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell seem in a real tight race for their seats, and could lose.

If all of these Senate seats went Democratic, the party could control 12 more seats than they have now, with 59 maximum, or if the one endangered Democrat, Doug Jones in Alabama, lost, it would be 58 seats. If there is a “Blue Wave”, however, one would think Jones would survive his Senate race!

The way things are going, one could even imagine some of the 16 “certain” states for Trump voting against him by small margins, but enough to give the state to Joe Biden.

This would include Alaska, South Carolina, and Kentucky with a total of 20 electoral votes, so if the maximum imaginable occurred, the final electoral vote would be 37 states and 463 electoral votes to 75 for Trump!

And this would mean that Joe Biden would win by a likely ten point or more margin in the total popular vote!

One more time, in mid to late October, this author and blogger will make a final projection on the likely Senate and Presidential results!

Advice To Joe Biden: Allow Donald Trump To Hang Himself While You Act With Statesmanship And Dignity In The Remaining Weeks Of The Campaign

With exactly 15 weeks, 105 days until the Presidential Election of 2020, the best advice to Joe Biden is to allow Donald Trump to “hang himself” with his hysterical ranting and constant lying, and ignore his taunts and crazy conspiracy theories.

Joe Biden should continue to act with statesmanship and dignity in the remaining weeks of the campaign, which he has done so far.

The result has been that Biden is far ahead in all public opinion polls, much larger leads than Hillary Clinton had at the same time in 2016.

Biden is making substantial speeches on various matters, and showing he is fully capable of planning for changes starting six months from today, the day after his inauguration.

He is a calming influence, and gives confidence and hope to millions who are suffering from multiple crises—the CoronaVirus Pandemic, the economic depression, and the civil rights and racial crisis.

The President is planning to engage again in press conferences on the Pandemic, but if he continues to conduct himself as he did in March and April, his ratings will go down ever more.

So the only time for Joe Biden to directly engage with Donald Trump is when the Presidential debates take place on Tuesday, September 29 at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana; Thursday, October 15 at the Adrienne Arsht Center For The Performing Arts in Miami, Florida; and Thursday October 22 at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee.

The Vice Presidential debate between Vice President Mike Pence and the woman chosen for the Vice Presidency by Joe Biden will take place on Wednesday October 7 at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.

Donald Trump Seems To Be Wanting To Bring America To Its Knees And Destroy The Nation As He Sees Defeat On The Horizon

President Donald Trump is moving to block extra funding for the Centers For Disease Control and for testing and tracing, an absolutely insane move.

Additionally, despite evidence that wearing face masks will work to end the CoronaVirus Pandemic over time, Trump refuses to call for a national commitment, and that encourages his crazy followers to refuse to do so.

Meanwhile, the death toll continues to rise, and America is the only major nation to have been unable to avoid the worsening of the pandemic, with one out of four deaths worldwide being in the United States. We are moving toward Dr. Anthony Fauci’s fear that we will soon have 100,000 cases per day, with the numbers now up to 70,000 daily.

Dr. Fauci has been prevented from speaking through the White House and has had to go to outside interviews, but his advice on the pandemic is being totally ignored.

This is pure insanity, and Trump’s poll numbers on handling of the Pandemic show that 60 percent disapprove of what he has done, but he is tone deaf and blind to reality.

It is almost as if he is like Adolf Hitler, as he was nearing defeat in World War II, ignoring reality and wanting to take Germany down to total death and destruction.

Donald Trump is a very sick man mentally, and he seems to have no concern about the loss of life, having no empathy, and refusing to express sorrow or concern about what is going on.

He senses that he is losing, and wants to take the nation down to degradation and massive deaths that might surpass the Civil War total in four years of 620,000 in a year.

If there was ever a time to remove him under the 25th Amendment, even with the election soon upon us, it is now, but Vice President Mike Pence and the Trump cabinet will not do that, and they will all be disgraced in history for the most destructive possible disaster we have witnessed in modern times!

Donald Trump Commutation Of Roger Stone Prison Term The Final Nail In The Coffin!

Donald Trump’s commutation of the Roger Stone prison term will be the final nail in the coffin of the Presidency of the 45th President, and will cause massive loss of seats in the House and Senate on November 3.

To give a commutation to a man totally obscene and crooked as Roger Stone is, only adds to the image of Donald Trump as the most corrupt President in American history, bar none!

Only Mitt Romney, among Republicans in Congress, has had the decency to condemn what Trump has done, giving a pass to a man who was convicted by a jury of seven felonies.

But polls show a complete collapse of Trump’s ratings, and this action only adds to the destruction of his chances to win a second term.

The Republican Party in the House and Senate has no principles other than their own political advancement, and their personal acquisition of wealth, and they will suffer an historic disaster, equivalent of 1964!

Not Much To Be Happy About On Independence Day 2020

Tomorrow, America celebrates the 244th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, but there is not much to be happy about.

We are precisely four months away from the most important election since 1940, and the fear is that, somehow, Donald Trump, will manage to fix an election, where every public opinion poll imaginable shows him losing in every single “swing” state, and not by close margins in most of these states.

A constitutional crisis is likely, and the country is so stressed that it could lead to bloodshed and violence, possibly endangering Joe Biden, and whoever is his running mate for Vice President, about a month away from announcement.

The challenge for Joe Biden is massive, not only to win, but to govern in an effective way, starting January 20, 2021.

The most important thing is for every American to take his or her responsibility, and get out there and vote, and encourage everyone he or she knows to do the same, as lack of voting only helps the most dangerous and unhinged President in our history!

Donald Trump In Free Fall After Disastrous Week

Donald Trump is clearly in free fall after a disastrous week.

The Supreme Court, including conservatives, and a Trump appointee, went against him on Gay and Transgender employment rights, and on the issue of Deferred Action For Childhood Arrivals (DACA), leading Trump to complain that the Supreme Court does not “like” him.

John Bolton publishing a book demonstrating that Trump has no interest in any policy, and just about reelection, infuriated Trump.

Mary Trump, his niece, is about to come out with a tell all about how horrible Trump is, even with his own father who gave him his start, once the elder Trump developed Alzheimers.

Donald Trump is bringing more attention to his own corrupt dealings in New York, by firing the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York, promoting a new investigation by the House Judiciary Committee.

All public opinion polls show Trump in a massive landslide, and that includes the Fox News Polls.

And finally, the disastrous Tulsa rally led to a very small crowd, only about one third full, but also increasing the likelihood that many of the attendees might get the COVID-19 virus and spread it to others.

Donald Trump Reeling From Supreme Court DACA Decision, And Fox News Poll, Showing Joe Biden Winning By 12 Points!

Donald Trump is rapidly deteriorating mentally and physically, as he sees himself losing on so many fronts.

The latest is the Supreme Court decision on DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals), allowing those immigrants who came to America as young children, and were threatened with deportation by Trump, to remain in America, at least for the time being. Hopefully, their status will be finally resolved in 2021 by a President Joe Biden and a Democratic Congress.

Chief Justice John Roberts again proved how “unreliable” he is for conservative values, making the decision 5-4.

And now, Trump is not only declaring war on the Supreme Court, with his utterance that the Justices do not like him, but also on Fox News Channel, which just published a poll showing Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by the massive margin of 12 points nationally.

Donald Trump is suffering mightily as everything is going against him, and it could not happen to a better person!

Joe Biden Has It Right: Donald Trump Will Do Anything To Steal The Election, But Military, Clearly, Will Prevent That!

Here we are 145 days from the election, and Joe Biden is making clear his belief that Donald Trump will do anything to steal the election, but the military, clearly, will prevent that!

The apology of Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley for having allowed himself to walk with Donald Trump on June 1 for that disgraceful trip to the Episcopal Church, after tear gas, rubber bullets and low flying helicopters were weapons against peaceful demonstrators, is a great sign of what Biden is saying.

With so many former military, intelligence, and national security personnel also condemning what happened, and with Defense Secretary Mark Esper also apologizing last week, it is clear that Donald Trump will be arrested and taken out in handcuffs on January 20, 2021, if he does not leave peacefully.

It is also clear that we may not know the results of the election due to mail ballots, and there will likely be an extended period of uncertainty, similar to what happened in 1876-1877 and in 2000.

But the difference is that Samuel Tilden and Al Gore were willing to accept, peacefully, the results in those two elections, as they were true patriots.

Donald Trump is not, so we could very well see a sitting President removed by military force if he tries to interfere with a peaceful transition!

Every poll imaginable sees Trump losing easily, so hopefully, what is projected will happen, as the worst possible scenario is a very close election!

Joe Biden Further Ahead In Polls For Early June Than Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, And John Kerry Were In Last Four Election Cycles

We have all learned from history that public opinion polls are not always accurate, but it is impressive, at least for now, that Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in all public opinion polls in early June, further ahead of Donald Trump than Hillary Clinton in 2016, Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008, and John Kerry in 2004 against their opponents.

It is clearly not a reason for those who support Joe Biden to become cocky, and even lazy about campaigning for him, and for encouraging others to vote in November.

But considering the first five months of 2020, with the impeachment trial; the CoronaVirust Pandemic; the collapse of the economy to depression levels; and the Trump decision to fire tear gas, pepper spray, and have two helicopters threaten peaceful demonstrators in Washington, DC, who were protesting the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis, one has to believe that the polls likely are accurate against Donald Trump.