Public Opinion Polls

Imagine The Possibility: FOUR Independents In US Senate In 2015-2016, All Allied With The Democratic Party Caucus!

An amazing development is now seen as possible, if not likely, at this point, 26 days before the Midterm Elections of 2014!

We already have two Independent Senators, both of whom ally with the Democratic Party caucus: Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and Angus King of Maine.

A third one seems likely now, with Independent Greg Orman seen as likely to defeat long serving Kansas Republican Senator Pat Roberts, which would mark the first non Republican Senator elected in that state since 1932. It is believed that Orman would then ally with the Democrats.

That is itself is a surprise, but with no Democrat in the race, Orman is seen as ten points ahead of Roberts.

Suddenly, a fourth Independent Senator seems possible, in another state considered Republican territory, South Dakota, another Great Plains state!

There we have a three way race, of former Republican Governor Mike Rounds; Democrat Rick Weiland; and former Republican Senator Larry Pressler, who served 18 years in the Senate from 1979-1997, after two terms in the House of Representatives from 1975-1979, and who also was, briefly, a GOP Presidential candidate in 1980.

Right now, the race is very close, with Rounds in a slight lead, but Pressler not much behind, and Weiland a few points behind Pressler in public opinion polls.

In a three way race, anything is possible, and it seems possible and plausible that Pressler could come back, 18 years after leaving the Senate, to his old seat, an amazing development.

Pressler, while a Republican in his past, endorsed and campaigned for Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, so were he to win the Senate seat, it is seen as likely that he would caucus with the Democrats, and has criticized his party as one that has moved away from his beliefs toward the extreme Right!

So imagine a scenario where four Independents would all ally with the Democrats and insure their continued hold on the US Senate, something never having happened in the history of that legislative body!

The Democrats’ Secret Weapon: Young And Single Women, And Excellent Women Candidates!

The Democratic Party has a secret weapon: Young and Single Women, and Excellent Senate candidates and Gubernatorial candidates!

Polls show that young and single women in many states are clearly angered by Republicans working to take away their rights, and will come out in large numbers to back Democrats in the midterm elections.

The margin of support for Democrats in many state polls is as high as thirty percent in some, and polls clearly indicate widespread support among young and single women in such states as North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Colorado, and Kentucky, among others!

Why not? Republicans want to take away the right of abortion; the right to use contraceptives; the right of a woman to equal pay; the right of women to have more unemployment compensation; the right of women to have an increase in the minimum wage; the right of women to know that politicians do not blame them for campus rapes and military rapes; the right of women to have more available and quality child care; the right of women to expect decent health care from government, or their corporations, such as Walmart; the right of women not be insulted about their weight and figure; and the right of women to reject women Republican candidates who do not care about anyone but their own futures, and sell out to male chauvinists in the Republican Party.

So therefore, Michele Nunn of Georgia; Allison Lundergan Grimes of Kentucky; Mary Landrieu of Louisiana; Kay Hagan of North Carolina; Shanna Bellows of Maine; Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire; and Natalie Tennant of West Virginia (all Senators or running for the Senate); and Wendy Davis of Texas and Mary Burke of Wisconsin (running for Governor) stand out, as does Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire; and many are likely to win their races, and make 2014, the Year of the Democratic Woman, a lot due to young and single women voting in droves!

Meanwhile, Republican women running are sounding like they are from outer space, including Senate candidates Joni Ernst of Iowa; Terri Lynn Land of Michigan; Monica Wehby of Oregon; and Shelly Moore Capito of West Virginia; and women Governors Mary Fallin of Oklahoma; Susana Martinez of New Mexico; and Nikki Haley of South Carolina.

The Contradictory Public Opinion Polls On Midterm Elections Of 2014

With 30 days to go to the Midterm Elections of 2014, the public opinion polls are again proving how unreliable they really are!

The Republicans are claiming, and many polls are indicating, that the party of obstruction and negativism; the party that wishes to privatize Social Security and Medicare; the party that denies Medicaid coverage to millions in many states; the party that has no alternative to ObamaCare; the party which has demonstrated racism, misogyny, nativism, and lack of concern for the middle class; the party which is promoting religion in government which the Founding Fathers opposed; the party which refuses to cooperate even on the ISIL (ISIS) crisis by coming back to Washington to debate and vote on what should be done; the party which has lied consistently and assumes that the American people are dupes who will accept any propaganda they spew forth; somehow is going to win control of the US Senate, and retain most Governorships, despite their pitiful record of being captive to the Tea Party Movement!

On the other hand, the Democrats, who should be proud of what has been accomplished by the Obama Administration, and the kinds of principles they espouse, is running scared, even though many polls indicate that the Senate will stay Democratic, and that most incumbents will win their reelection campaigns, and that the Democrats will take away the Tea Party Governorships of many Republicans.

While no one can say for sure, 30 days out, that the Democrats will perform well, it is hard to believe that the middle class of America, the women, the minority groups, labor, environmentalists, and other progressive groups will not realize the importance of voting, in order to guarantee the long range success of the Obama Presidency, which has now presided over 55 straight months of job growth, a record in modern times, and this pointed out by the conservative journal, FORBES Magazine!

Barack Obama Success Versus The Public Opinion Polls

Barack Obama has been the most successful President in economic affairs in modern times, surpassing Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan.

So says the conservative journal FORBES, and who is to argue with them coming up with this conclusion?

Obama has presided over the greatest stock market growth in American history, but also has seen tremendous economic expansion and creation of jobs not seen since the Clinton Administration.

Of course, unemployment is still 6.1 percent and many people have dropped out of the job market, and unemployment compensation has not been extended.

And of course, the minimum wage has not been increased, and should be, if based on the cost of living, would be triple what it is now–$7.25 an hour!

Infrastructure spending is essential, but has been prevented by the Republican Party.

The point is that despite the inherited Great Recession, Barack Obama has done miracles on the economy, and has succeeded in killing more Muslim terrorists than anyone else, including Osama Bin Laden and Libya’s dictator, Muamarr Gaddafi.

And yet, despite all this and much more, recent public opinion polls show a low point in the 30s for Obama, including one third disillusioned Democrats.

But it is clear that these polls are not to be relied on or believed, and it is obvious that those polled do not understand what has happened, and are clueless as to public affairs, and are more reacting to the right wing attacks on Obama, rather than using their own intellectual abilities.  It is scary how a large portion of the nation is ignorant, and ill informed!

Republican Front Runner In Iowa Is Mitt Romney? Is This The Best The Party Offers?

A poll in Iowa, which will hold the first votes of the 2016 Presidential campaign when it has its caucus in early January 2016 shows former Massachusetts Governor and 2012 Republican Presidential loser Mitt Romney far in the lead, an absolutely amazing development!

With all of the multitude of names bandied about, the true chameleon, the “flip flopper” par excellence, the man who will say anything to get your vote, and then change his story tomorrow, is seen as a viable candidate, when it is absolutely clear that he has ZERO chance of winning the Presidency, and had the least government experience of any nominee of either major political party since Wendell Willkie was the GOP nominee in 1940!

Romney seems to be warming up to running again, although he had said he was not interested, but his ego has been stroked, and clearly, he finds the attention hard to resist.

There are those who would say that, after all, Bob Dole ran three times for the nomination, and Ronald Reagan ran three times, but let it be made clear, no matter what their faults and shortcomings, Mitt Romney is not the experience of Bob Dole, or the charisma and two term gubernatorial experience of Ronald Reagan.

The reality is that Mitt Romney has no principles, except his own aggrandizement, first in financial manipulation on Wall Street, and then his belief that he can lie, deceive, manipulate, with the best, and somehow, the American people are suckers enough to believe anything he says.

Mitt Romney would be nearing 70 if he ran in 2016, and while Joe Biden will be five years older, and Hillary Clinton will be seven months younger but nearly 70 as with Romney, the reality is that Mitt Romney is no Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden in background and experience!

So do not put betting money on Mitt Romney, either to be the GOP nominee, or the 45th President of the United States! It is NOT going to happen!

The Do Nothing 113th Congress Worse Than 112th Congress, And Far Worse Than Truman’s 80th Congress In 1947-1948!

History tells us that President Harry Truman ran against the Republican controlled 80th Congress in his election campaign of 1948, calling it a “Do Nothing” Congress.

What he meant was that they were passing laws that he considered counterproductive, including the anti labor Taft Hartley Act, which he vetoed, but passed over his veto by a two thirds vote in both houses of Congress.

But in actuality, that 80th Congress passed over 900 laws, and cooperated with Truman on funding for the Truman Doctrine and the Marshall Plan, and also agreed to creation of the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Council and the Defense Department.

By comparison, the 112th Congress of 2011-2012 became the least productive Congress in history, passing fewer than 300 laws, but now the 113th Congress has passed fewer than 150 laws, making them half as accomplished as the previous Congress.

There is a total refusal of Republicans to cooperate at all with Barack Obama, and they have had the shortest work calendar of any Congress, including the previous one!

Now they are taking a five week break, despite so many crucial issues to deal with, and their public opinion rating is the lowest it has ever been!

But will the American people, with the reality of gerrymandering ruling the House of Representatives, be able to unite and give the Democrats back control of the House? Not likely, and the US Senate is also dangerously in play!

So two more years of stalemate and gridlock are likely!

Presidents And Intelligence

A YouGov Survey on the past eight elected Presidents, therefore not including Gerald Ford, ranks their “intelligence” with unusual results.

The word “intelligent” has different meanings to different people.

Is it based on grades while in school?

Is it based on ability to get things done effectively?

Is it based on oratorical skill and charm and charisma?

Is it based on accomplishments in office?

Is it based on personal popularity with the American people?

Is it based on reaction to crises that arise?

Does being “intelligent” matter as much as other characteristics, including: honesty, experience, ability to inspire, boldness, and having a sense of humor?

What it comes down to is that how people react to Presidents is very personal, and trying to rank them on the word “intelligence” is simply extremely political in nature!

According to the YouGov poll, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan are the two most “intelligent” of the eight recent Presidents, followed by Barack Obama and George H. W. Bush. Notice that the first two are also seen as most “successful”, while Obama, even under attack recently, looks better than the rest, and the senior Bush is remembered for the Persian Gulf War, which led him to an all time high public opinion poll rating of 91 percent.

The other four recent Presidents, generally seen as “failures”, or at least seen as negative, are in order: Jimmy Carter, Richard Nixon, Lyndon B. Johnson, and George W. Bush.

Interestingly, George W, Bush and Barack Obama have the highest percentage, both 17 percent, thinking they are not intelligent at all! This is purely emotion based on opposition that each has had from his critics!

What it comes down to is that this poll is basically useless, as it fails to look at historical reality and the record of each President!

If that was done, one could argue that LBJ should rank the highest in pure accomplishment in domestic affairs, in a way that still affects us, while Richard Nixon would rank highest in pure accomplishment in foreign policy, despite his many other shortcomings, including Watergate.

In pure native intelligence, based on information we have on their backgrounds, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter would rank the highest.

Ronald Reagan has been over inflated in image, while George H. W. Bush has been underrated for his accomplishments.

Barack Obama cannot be adequately evaluated while in office, while George W. Bush, ranking last, seems likely to remain that way for the long run!

Left In Democratic Party Not Comfortable With Hillary Clinton, Looking Elsewhere For Primary Challenge!

Hillary Clinton may be the runaway favorite in most polls for the Democratic Presidential nomination for 2016, but we have never seen a non-incumbent to compete without an opponent in their party’s battle for the Presidential nomination.

So we are starting to feel, see, and sense that there will be challengers to Hillary, and the speculation has become wide and deep that any or some of the following will, indeed, challenge the former Secretary of State, Senator, and First Lady:

Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware
Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts
Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont
Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland
Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
Senator Mark Warner of Virginia
Governor Jerry Brown of California
Former Governor Howard Dean of Vermont
Governor Jay Nixon of Missouri (totally new to any speculation)
Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado

There is discontent with Hillary Clinton’s ties to Wall Street; her gaining as much as $275,000 a speech before wealthy donors and groups; and the image of her as a “hawk” in foreign policy. She is seen as part of the “Establishment”, and as not sufficiently understanding of the plight of the middle class and the poor. Her husband worked against the left, sticking to a centrist viewpoint in his years in the White House, and while there are salutes for him as a former President, the Left is looking for someone more in the line of doing more for the poor and middle class, and staying out of foreign wars, and regulating Wall Street.

So that is the appeal of Warren, Sanders and O’Malley in particular, but the idea of Brown coming back, mentioned in an earlier blog entry, is fascinating, and Dean trying again after 12 years is also intriguing! And imagine a “Nixon”, not related to the former President, running from the “heartland”, the state of Missouri, which was always on the winning side of every election from 1900 to the present, except 1956, 2008, and 2012, but close in the first two years!

And of course, Hillary could decide, ultimately, NOT to run, and then it is a true donnybrook in the making for the Democrats in 2016!

Could there be a surprise in the Democratic Presidential sweepstakes? After 2008, who can say?

Senator Elizabeth Warren And Senator Rand Paul Gaining Attention In 2016 Presidential Race!

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul are gaining a lot of attention for the 2016 Presidential race with their recent speeches and campaigning.

Warren, a freshman Senator, who gained fame from her campaign for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, has stirred the imagination of left wing Democrats, who are unhappy with the comparatively centrist campaign of Hillary Clinton.

Warren has made issues of unemployment compensation, raising the minimum wage, attacking Wall Street, and calling for revising the college student loan system, which has effectively enslaved millions of students in unending college loan debt, due to high interest rates.

She comes across as folksy, not bad for a former Harvard professor, and has gained large audiences in red states such as Kentucky and West Virginia, where she has campaigned for candidates Alison Lungergan Grimes and Natalie Tennant for Senate seats. Remember, however, that she was born and lived for years in Oklahoma.

She is a new face, in the sense of national exposure, but only two years younger than Hillary Clinton.

Paul, the son of former Congressman Ron Paul of Texas, has gained attention by his attack on Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Vice President Dick Cheney, who have both called for returning troops to Iraq. Paul makes it clear that America should not return to involvement in Iraq, and he seems to have the American people on his side, based on public opinion polls. He comes across as principled, while neocons attack him as isolationist, which he denies.

It is still hard to imagine either Warren or Paul gaining the nominations of their parties for 2016, but anything is possible, and they are certainly adding a lot of interest into the race!

It Is Time For Republicans To Condemn Sarah Palin, With John McCain In The Lead!

Arizona Senator John McCain gave us Sarah Palin as a national figure in 2008, by choosing the obscure Alaska Governor as his Vice Presidential running mate.

In the past six years, Sarah Palin has contributed absolutely NOTHING to political discourse, and has worked to undermine any sense of cooperation and unity!

Palin has demonstrated how stupid, ignorant, and moronic she is on a regular basis!

She quit her job as Governor once an investigation into spending on her part began, and yet she has the gall to criticize Barack Obama, and show total lack of respect for the office he holds, along with the man.

In a recent poll, 54 percent said that Sarah Palin should just go away, and shut her mouth!

She has been an embarrassment to herself, her family, and the party that gave her the opportunity to become famous, and to earn millions on books she did not write, and reality shows that made us realize just how dimwitted she is!

It is hard not to roll one’s eyes as Sarah Palin becomes more ridiculous and inane by the day!

It is time for Republican leaders to repudiate her, and let her go to the right wing Tea Party Movement, which she has sided with, undermining the few responsible Republicans that are left in that party. The candidates she has backed are just as stupid, ignorant, inane, and literally dangerous, with their extremist views, that are undermining the rights of the poor, the minorities, women, labor, and the environment.

Senator McCain, you have continued to be supportive in public of Sarah Palin out of loyalty, but it is time to drop the false image, and for you to denounce this woman for calling for the impeachment of Barack Obama. You have already said there are no grounds for such an action, therefore disagreeing with her, without attacking her.

You need now, Senator McCain, to be a profile in courage and tell her she is wrong, and that she needs to leave the political scene. You can be sure that she would bite the hand that fed her fame, but it would make her look even worse by doing so, and would make you look better in history, for admitting you made a mistake in selecting her to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency!