Public Opinion Polls

March Of Second Year Of Presidential Term Not Good Time To Assume Presidential Nominees For Next Term, Proved By History!

As March 2014 ends, Hillary Clinton is the runaway favorite for the Democratic Presidential nomination, which is comforting to her, but going by history, no guarantee of her nomination in the summer of 2016.

Witness the following facts:

Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts was the front runner in polls for 1976, 1980, and 1984, in March 1974, March 1978, and March 1982.

Senator Gary Hart of Colorado was the front runner in polls for 1988, in March 1986.

Governor Mario Cuomo of New York was the front runner in polls for 1992, in March 1990.

Former Vice President Al Gore was the front runner in polls for 2004, in March 2002.

Senator Hillary Clinton of New York was the front runner in polls for 2008, in March 2006.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Guiliani was the front runner in polls for 2008, in March 2006.

Did anyone ever know of a President Ted Kennedy, a President Gary Hart, a President Mario Cuomo, a President Al Gore (other than the contested Election Of 2000), a President Hillary Clinton for the past five years, or a President Rudy Guiliani?

Who was seriously thinking of Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, or Barack Obama in 1974 or 1990 or 2006? And who was seriously thinking of Michael Dukakis in 1986 or John Kerry in 2002? The answer is that none of the top five in polling in all these different March second year of the term polls were these five listed in this paragraph, including the last three Democratic Presidents!

So the game of Presidential candidacy is far from resolved at this early point of the battle for the next Presidential nominations in both parties!

The Likelihood Of An Obama Impeachment Grows, But It Will Not Lead To Removal From The Presidency!

With the growing possibility that the Republicans MIGHT win control of the US Senate, and keep control of the House of Representatives by a tight margin, the likelihood of President Obama facing impeachment, as Bill Clinton did in 1998, grows.

But there is no case for impeachment, as Barack Obama has NOT committed high crimes and misdemeanors in office!

He has not even had an illicit love affair as Bill Clinton did, and he has not lied under oath, as Bill Clinton sadly did when asked about his love life by a prosecutor under oath, once the Paula Jones accusations came to light.

Obama has been accused of abusing power, but nothing he has done is any different than what George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, or other Presidents did, without the invective that the 44th President has had to deal with.

Obama has faced a constant assault like no one since Richard Nixon, who deserved it, due to his illegal actions. So much of what is said is outrageous, and disrespectful of the office he holds.

But remember that all that is needed for impeachment is a majority of the House of Representatives to vote on one or more articles of impeachment, and the charges need not be substantial or legitimate, as impeachment is a political action, not based on the law, as it was not based on law with Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton.

The likelihood of an impeachment, therefore, is very high, but as stated at other times by this blogger, it will never lead to the removal of the President, since even if the GOP gains the Senate majority, there will never be a situation where enough Democrats, or in fact, any Democrats, would vote to remove him from office!

The effect of an impeachment will be, simply, to besmirch the record of Barack Obama, making him the fourth President to face impeachment charges, but it will only matter as part of his obituary, since it will certainly be one of the key points always remembered if it ends up happening.

The impeachment battle would also cause a dramatic rise in Obama’s popularity, much like Bill Clinton experienced.

It would also help to undermine, ever further, any legitimacy that the Republican Party has with the American people at large, and it would further insure that a Democratic President will be elected in 2016.

Impeachment would be seen as petty, vindictive, and unfortunately, racist, and it would reflect badly on Republicans who wish to run for President.

No good could come out of such an action, but it would be a high moment for those who wish to divide America ever further, but with no satisfaction of their desire for blood.

And the true beneficiary of all this, if by some miracle, Obama was forced out, would be Vice President Joe Biden, who by becoming President with less than half the term left, would have a step up for the Presidency in 2016 and 2020, thus destroying the last opportunity for Hillary Clinton or any Republican to become President before 2025!

And anyone who thinks Joe Biden is a “joke”, who is not to be taken seriously, will have their comeuppance when they discover they might have created the monster of a President Biden for the next decade!

Barack Obama, And The Quandary Of Hillary Clinton And Joe Biden For 2016

It is becoming very evident that President Barack Obama is now entering a real minefield on the issue of who he will support for the Presidential nomination in 2016.

Obama defeated Hillary Clinton in a very divisive campaign in 2007-2008, but then made Hillary his Secretary of State.

At the same time, he competed against Joe Biden, and they remained respectful enough toward each other, so that Obama selected Biden as his Vice Presidential running mate.

Hillary did what is regarded as an excellent job in the State Department during Obama’s first term, and the two rivals became very close, after their earlier rift.

Joe Biden, meanwhile, played a very significant role in the problem solving and crises of the Obama Presidency, remaining totally loyal, and the two men also became very close.

Now both Hillary and Joe want to be President, with Hillary far ahead in public opinion polls and seen by many as the logical nominee, but Joe has made clear that he is not giving up his wish to run for President, and will decide that later, just as Hillary will.

This puts Barack Obama in a quandary as to who he should back for President in 2016. Sometimes, it seems that he will back Hillary, other times Joe!

What it comes down to is that the best advice to President Obama is to stay out of the race, make no commitment to either candidate, and remain neutral, but making clear his willingness to support whoever the winner is, and work to avoid alienation of either Hillary or Joe.

This is a very delicate balancing act, and no one can feel comfortable in this situation, as it is known that Hillary and Joe really admire each other, are good friends, and it is hard to imagine any sustained attack by either on the other.

The easiest solution would be for either Hillary or Joe to decide NOT to run, opening up the door for the other, but that does not seem likely to occur.

In reality, as this author has stated many times before, the best solution, actually, would be for both Hillary and Joe to decide that at the age of 69 and 74, that it is time to retire, After decades of contributions to America, rather than being committed to ten years of stress and pressure and tension, which would leave them, at ages 77 and 82, after eight years in the White House, and the giving up of their private time and money making potential, instead they should both retire in dignity. That would allow a younger generation to enter the fray, and would be good for the Democratic Party and the nation at large!

The Ideal Alternatives For The Presidential Election Of 2016–Martin O’Malley Vs. Jon Huntsman!

It seems clear that Hillary Clinton is the likely Democratic choice for President in 2016, and that Jeb Bush might be able to overcome Tea Party opposition in the Republican Party, if he decides to announce for President.

Both Clinton and Bush are certainly “qualified” to be President, but is the best choice to go back to two families that have already dominated the White House, with five times a Bush on the national ticket and two times a Clinton, and with Hillary being a national figure in the Senate and the State Department since her husband’s Presidency? Even Barbara Bush, the former First Lady, stated that there are more than a few families that are qualified to give us Presidents!

And with Hillary being 69 and Jeb Bush 63 in 2016, and both being nationally known personalities for 20-25 years each, is this the “ideal” choices to oppose each other? And adding to this, is Joe Biden, as wonderful as he is, but 74 in 2016, and being on the national scene as a potential Presidential candidate since 1987, and in the Senate beginning in 1973, an ideal alternative either?

The answer is NO, that the American people really deserve a “new generation” of leadership, as this author has stated numerous times, despite his admiration of Hillary and Joe, and respect, if not admiration, for Jeb!

So, looking elsewhere, and reiterating what this author has said numerous times on this blog, who would be the BEST alternatives for 2016—giving America a truly REAL good choice, of two qualified, new generation leaders, who are totally competent, accomplished, sane, decent, proven ability, and a record, both as Governors of their states, which shows their exceptional training and background to be the 45th President of the United States?

That “ideal” election would be:

Maryland Governor and former Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley for the Democrats

Former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman for the Republicans

These two candidates, competing against each other for the Presidency, would restore faith in the two party system, as they are, without question, the BEST of their newer generation to be President of the United States!

Yes, there are other alternative Democrats, such as Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Cory Booker of New Jersey, Mark Warner of Virginia, and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, along with New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, and former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer.

But none of these have the qualities of leadership that O’Malley has demonstrated in sixteen years of executive leadership! And O’Malley would be only 53 if he ran in 2016, turning 54 just before the inauguration in 2017! O’Malley has hinted that he might run, even with Hillary Clinton far ahead, and Joe Biden a distant second in polls, but both a generation older than O’Malley. Remember that O’Malley heads a state rated number one in education, and a center of real growth and prosperity!

Huntsman, as this author has stated innumerable times in the past few years, is superbly qualified, having been a very successful Governor of Utah, a basically conservative state which benefited from his leadership in state government. And then, Huntsman was patriotic enough and superbly qualified enough to be Barack Obama’s Ambassador to China, and not just as a political appointment, which ambassadorships often are, but as a brilliant diplomat and master of the Mandarin Chinese language and culture! He would be only age 56 when he would be campaigning for President, and be 57 about two months after the inauguration, so he also represents a “new” generation of leadership, as O’Malley does!

This man is highly intelligent, a moderate and mainstream conservative, who would be a credit to the historic Republican Party, which has fallen upon hard times, and now has lunatics and whackos and demagogues as its so called “leading” Presidential figures and spokesmen in Congress and the state governorships! All other Republicans considered candidates for the White House in 2012 and 2016 are true embarrassments, and give one a nightmare thought that any of these characters might be President! Only Jeb Bush does not fit into this category, other than Huntsman himself.

The odds that Huntsman can somehow end up as the GOP nominee for President are as long, if not longer, than O’Malley overcoming Hillary and Joe. But it would be good for the nation, and for the party system, and we could sleep at night, confident of strong, principled, competent leadership with a President O’Malley or a President Huntsman taking the oath as President on January 20, 2017!

The Dominance Of Political Family Dynasties

It now seems clear that Hillary Clinton will be running for the Presidency, and that she is very likely to become the 45th President of the United States, and its first woman President.

Every poll imaginable shows her far in the lead against any Democratic challenger, including Vice President Joe Biden, who is the only other Democrat to even score more than a couple of percent in any poll, but about 50-60 points behind the former First Lady, former Senator, and former Secretary of State.

And every poll also shows that NO Republican comes anywhere near Hillary Clinton, with the only one who seemed to compete, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, rapidly collapsing in the midst of the “Bridgegate ” and associated scandals, with the issue of funding of projects with federal money for Hurricane Sandy the more dangerous scandal for Christie and his future.

Hillary Clinton enters the 2016 campaign almost as if she was an incumbent, and really, no one has ever been in as enviable a position as she seems to be. But this means that she must not take anything for granted, run hard and vigorously and not assume victory as Republican nominee Thomas E. Dewey thought in 1948, before he lost in an upset victory by President Harry Truman.

Hillary Clinton must be able and willing to take as much flak and attacks on everything imaginable in her record and life story, and she does seem to be tough enough to deal with that, plus the inevitable death threats which will be visited upon her at a rate probably at least equivalent to Abraham Lincoln, and possibly at the same astronomical rate of President Barack Obama, who faces, approximately, 30 death threats in some form per day!

Many might think that a person who will be 69 and three months of age at the time of the inauguration, making her the second oldest inaugurated President in American history, after Ronald Reagan, who was about eight months older at his first inauguration, would think twice about spending the next ten years of her life, until age 77 and three months, if she served two complete terms, with the pressure cooker and stresses of running for President, and dealing with an increasingly complex and troubled world and nation. But she seems game for the challenge, and would certainly come into office more experienced and better equipped for the Presidency than almost any occupant of the Oval Office we have seen.

But her likely accession to the Presidency, with the full team support and financial backing of many Obama Administration and campaign functionaries, is a true sign that Vice President Joe Biden should give up the quest for the White House, as he is about five years older, and would be the oldest first term President, and if he were to serve two terms, would be past 82 at the end. This author is a great Joe Biden fan, but it does seem time for party unity, in the midst of Republican chaos and anarchy, for him to accept reality, and as soon as Hillary Clinton announces, to be gracious and announce he will not challenge her for the nomination.

There is no likelihood of any Democrat bothering to challenge her, particularly if Biden drops out, and the long range shot by former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer would only be like a Don Quixote battling a windmill!

If Hillary Clinton succeeds in her quest, she will have made the Clinton dynasty the most dominant in modern American history, without any debate. Consider that her husband, Bill Clinton affected the nation from the time he ran in 1992 until he left in 2001, followed by Hillary as Senator from New York for eight years, and then four years as Secretary of State, making for a total of 21 years, now followed by two years in private life, but ten years into the future of campaigning, and possible two terms in the Presidency, which would make for a grand total of 31 years of national influence. And even these two years of private life, Hillary Clinton remains a national figure of great respect and renown, so one could say 33 years, a third of a century, the Clintons may have been the dominant influence in American history–between 1992 and 2025!

The dominance of the Clintons is only matched recently by the Bushes, with father George H. W. on the political radar from his 1980 challenge to Ronald Reagan until his forced retirement in 1993, after losing to Bill Clinton. Then, his son George W. came on the scene as Texas Governor in 1995 and son Jeb as Florida Governor starting in 1999. When George W. ran in 2000, and then won two terms, leaving in 2009, it meant a total of 14 years of senior Bush, followed by 14 years of junior Bush, for a total of 28 years. Ironically, if Jeb were now to run, which his mother does not advise him to do, and which Speaker of the House John Boehner thinks he should do, and were he to win, he could surpass the potential Clinton family record!

Compared to the Clintons and the Bushes, no other family dominates, as the Kennedy generation of John and Robert only lasted 8 years, and after Ted Kennedy lost his only real chance for the Presidency in 1980 against Jimmy Carter in the primaries, it meant a total of maybe 20 years of Kennedy dominance, although Ted did stay as an influential Senator until his death in 2009.

The only other family worthy of mention are the Roosevelts, if one counts Teddy and Franklin as part of the same dynasty, although different parties and generations completely. But even TR and FDR were only dominant for a total of 20 years combined, although TR remained a national figure for the ten years after his Presidency until his death.

It would certainly be ironic if we ended up with Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush opposing each other in 2016, as a battle of the titans, the two families who have more dominated American politics than any other in American history!

“Moderate” Conservatives And The Future Of The Republican Party

Some observers have argued that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie performed “well” at his nearly two hour press conference, on Thursday, answering question after question from journalists about the Fort Lee I-95 scandal, blocking traffic for four days in September, and threatening the health, safety and security of tens of thousands of people all over the lack of an endorsement of the Fort Lee Democratic Mayor for the Republican Governor in the state election campaign.

The fact that Christie held the longest press conference of any politician in history, and spoke longer than the doomed President William Henry Harrison, who spoke an hour and a half when inaugurated in 1841, dying from pneumonia he gained from the rainy, cold weather, dying exactly a month later, is looked upon as a sign of stamina and accomplishment.

But there are many unanswered questions, and Christie is known to have a vicious reaction to critics in the state government, having fired some, and having taken from the State Senate President, Richard Codey, who has been Acting Governor several times, his security protection over a dispute. How petty and nasty this man is, and we already know how he has been disrespectful to teachers and parents and journalists, and revels in being a bully, which he denied, much like Richard Nixon said he was not a crook, revealing himself similarly as exactly that!

Christie could face impeachment or recall, and could be facing criminal prosecution, ironic for a man who was US Attorney, prosecuting and imprisoning others, sometimes unjustly, but making “corpses” on the way to power, with his arrogance and his swagger. It would be only “just desserts!”

But meanwhile, the right wing in the GOP is reveling in the realization that this comparatively “moderate” conservative, who was the frontrunner in many polls for the Presidency, and even led Hillary Clinton in some polls, looks now as if he has fallen on his own sword, as far as the Presidential race of 2016 is concerned.

So who can so called “moderate” conservatives turn to in stead of Christie?

Is there any Republican Governor who could be seen as a “moderate” conservative?

Is there any Republican Congressman who could be seen as a “moderate” conservative?

Is there any Republican Senator who could be seen as a “moderate” conservative?

The silence is deafening as every Republican officeholder today in Congress and the Governorships is far from a “moderate” conservative, other than Christie himself!

They are all “hook, line and sinker” tied to the Tea Party Movement directly, or afraid to challenge that right wing, anarchistic, libertarian movement that hates government, while they all make big salaries and take lobbying money in large amounts, while demonizing poor people, single mothers, children, elderly, veterans, and minorities, and pontificate how the world is coming to an end because of gay marriage! And of course, they are still promoting the “Birther” myth about Barack Obama, while hailing Canadian born Ted Cruz as legitimate to run for President, and loving that he resembles so closely the appearance and tactics of the late Wisconsin “witch hunter of Communism,” Senator Joseph McCarthy!

So who can moderate conservatives turn to?

There are only two realistic possibilities, with neither likely to get very far in the search for a Republican Presidential nominee, and therefore, the GOP is on the road to electoral destruction as a result.

Those two possibilities are former GOP Governors, who have a brain and credentials, but are hated by the extremists on the right:

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush
Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman (also Ambassador to China)

Bush has the problem that he is a “Bush”, and has been out of office since the end of 2006, and his brother, George W. Bush, ruined the family brand.

Huntsman has the problem that he is too damned intelligent and knowledgeable, is an independent minded Mormon with an open mind, and had the nerve to work for Barack Obama in China for two years! Imagine that!

Huntsman is, by far, the better of the two, but neither is likely to be a serious contender, and in fact, it could be that neither will announce. But if they do, the right wing talk show hosts, the Koch Brothers and their manufactured Tea Party Movement, and the think tanks will obliterate them, even as now they are celebrating the “political death” of Chris Christie, much too arrogant and abusive as he is!

But really, except for being somewhat more “moderate”, how is Christie really different from those to his right? Their personality traits and character are not really all that different to begin with!

So the GOP is worse off because of the Christie Scandal!

Des Moines Register Poll On Presidential Race Of 2016

The Des Moines Register, the leading newspaper in Iowa, has started to poll on who is favored in the Iowa Caucuses, the first vote of a presidential election year, always held in January, which can catapult a candidate all the way to the Presidency, as it did for Barack Obama on January 3, 2008.

Of course, polling this early is no real indicator of what will happen in two years, and in fact, being an early leader is a hex, and usually means that someone else will end up winning the Iowa Caucuses and have the edge to be the Presidential nominee of a political party.

But, if for nothing other than political discussion and debate, the poll shows Hillary Clinton in the lead, with only Joe Biden being competitive with her in any fashion. The other names listed, really “dark horses”, are Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley and, surprising to some, former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, both of whom have shown interest in running, with Schweitzer being much more open about it.

On the Republican side, five have a positive rating of more than 50 percent, including in order, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan (VP running mate of Mitt Romney in 2012), former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (now a Fox News talk show host), Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and tied for fifth, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Under 50 percent are Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz.

It is interesting that the front runners are people who have lost their last race, while the also rans are newer people, many of whom have an extremist image, although really, all of the ten listed are extremists on the right, with the exception of Christie and Bush.

And Hillary Clinton has enough support for now that she would seemingly have an edge over any and all Republicans, and remember that Barack Obama carried Iowa twice in a state that, despite its strong right wing evangelical image, votes Democratic for President in recent elections, and is likely to do the same in 2016, whether it is Hillary or Joe Biden or some newer candidate for the Democrats.

Could The Problems With ObamaCare Hurt The Democrats In Midterm Elections In 2014?

The massive problems with the roll out of ObamaCare could hurt the Democrats in midterm elections coming up in November 2014.

The Republicans, by their shutting down of the government, were on the defensive, but now the unbelievable troubles with ObamaCare seem to be wiping out the edge that the Democrats had just two months ago.

It is clear that the American population is changing its views on government and major issues, based on each new controversy which arises, and that anything could happen eleven months from now.

It is also evident that IF the American people could defeat all incumbents, they would do so, and that many, at least in theory, would like a new political party.

But the American system of government is such that the reality of defeating incumbents is very difficult, and only a small percentage will be defeated next year. At the same time, having new political parties that can compete for power and influence is nearly impossible, as our party system, with its ups and its downs, has not changed in 160 years when 2014 arrives next month.

We are in a very difficult period politically, and trying to predict the outcome of the midterm elections, and even the Presidential race of 2016, has become ever more something one would not wish to bet on!

CNN Poll: Christie Ahead Of Paul Ryan For GOP; Clinton And Biden For Democrats

A CNN poll indicates that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is seven points ahead of Congressman Paul Ryan, the Republican Vice Presidential nominee in 2012, for the Presidential race in 2016; and with Hillary Clinton far ahead of Joe Biden, but Biden far ahead of anyone else in the Democratic field for 2016.

But one must be aware that this far out, to assume that Christie and Clinton will be the nominees, or that Ryan and Biden will be the backup nominees, is not a good bet at all.

Face the facts: Christie’s name has been in the news because of his landslide victory in New Jersey in an off year election, where his story was the major one to report. Ryan, having been the VP nominee, is well known. Hillary Clinton has been seen as a public figure constantly, most recently as Secretary of State, and Joe Biden has been a very active Vice President.

There is a very good chance that someone else will be the nominee in the GOP, while less likely for the Democrats, where Hillary and Joe seem to have a lead that is unlikely to be surpassed, particularly for Hillary over Joe.

But one only has to look at the surprises of history, including Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, to know that anything is possible in a Presidential race this far out from the actual election year.

Barack Obama Ratings Falling Fast: Can He Revive His Popularity?

A new CNN poll demonstrates that President Barack Obama’s popularity ratings are falling fast, and the question is whether he can revive his popularity, or will be seen as a failed President in the three remaining years of his Presidency.

53 percent now see him as not honest and trustworthy; only 40 percent consider him capable of operating the government effectively.

But 60 percent still believe he has a vision for the country’s future; and 70 percent still see him as likable, but even those numbers are lower.

Obama still, however, is seen in a positive way personally overall, but his ability to get things done has suffered dramatically in 2013, and particularly over the massive failure of the launch of ObamaCare.

And now, there is new conflict over the deal with Iran, with many seeing it as a disaster in the making, almost like a Munich 1938 agreement, which led to World War II. The word being bandied about is “appeasement”.

The immigration bill is stalled in Congress, and the likelihood of any kind of cooperation with the Republicans in Congress seem highly doubtful.

So the question is what will happen in the next three years, and it is anyone’s guess as to how Obama will fare, and look in the eyes of history.