Gerald Ford

Could Donald Trump Resign Before The Election, Or After The Election Before The Inauguration?

There is some speculation that Donald Trump, who has been behind Joe Biden steadily in public opinion polls for many months, might be thinking of resigning before the election, rather than face defeat, which would be very hard for him psychologically. Or he could resign after the election before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2021.

Trump has a history of quitting, with six bankruptcies, and as bad as it would be for him to resign, it could be seen by him as better than the embarrassment of defeat, one that could be a massive landslide. Or he could take the action after defeat, in an attempt to avoid prosecution.

The plan being theorized is that Donald Trump would resign, let Vice President Mike Pence take over, and then be pardoned by Pence.

This situation would be unprecedented, very different than Richard Nixon resigning in August 1974, giving Gerald Ford a term of two years and five and a half months.

But that would upend the election process if it took place before the election, as there would not be time for Mike Pence to choose a running mate to replace himself, and would only insure a more humiliating defeat in November.

Whether before or after the election, it would give Mike Pence the shortest Presidency, except for William Henry Harrison’s one month in 1841.

And despite his sychophantic nature, would Mike Pence want it in history that in his four months or less Presidency, that he is noted for pardoning a President from the legion of crimes that he and Trump were engaged in?

And even if Pence gave a pardon, it would not include New York State charges of financial crimes and other crimes committed on New York property.

So there is no fool proof way out for Donald Trump, who now seems insured of trial and prison on a multitude of charges when he leaves office.

Such charges could not happen to a “better person”, utilizing sarcasm to its extreme!

Will Ohio Go Against The National Trend In 2020?

The state of Ohio has long been seen as a crucial state, and no Republican has been elected President without winning Ohio, including Donald Trump in 2016.

So only Gerald Ford has been a Republican President and lost Ohio, when he ran for a full term against Jimmy Carter in 1976. Once we knew that Carter had won Ohio, it was clear Ford would not have a full term, after succeeding the resigned Richard Nixon in 1974.

When one looks at party history since the Republican Party was founded in 1854, we find only five elections in which the Republican candidate lost Ohio to a Democrat, as follows:

John C. Fremont 1856 lost to James Buchanan

James G. Blaine 1884 lost to Grover Cleveland

President Benjamin Harrison 1892 lost to former President Grover Cleveland

Thomas E. Dewey 1944 lost to President Franklin D. Roosevelt

Richard Nixon 1960 lost to John F. Kennedy

So only three Democratic Presidents have won the White House without winning Ohio–James Buchanan in 1856, Grover Cleveland in 1884, and John F. Kennedy in 1960, with Cleveland second time and FDR fourth time winning a return to the White House without winning Ohio.

Right now, polls show Donald Trump winning Ohio by 5 points instead of the 8 point lead he had over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

So if polls hold up, Joe Biden will be the fourth Democrat to become President without Ohio, only the sixth time in 166 years, and the first time since 1960.

Ohio has been steadily losing electoral votes, as the balance of population has moved South and West, and will likely lose one electoral vote in 2024 and 2028, going down from 18 to 17, so will have less impact politically in the future!

46 Years Since Richard Nixon Resigned, And Nation Would Benefit If Donald Trump Did The Same, But He Is No Richard Nixon!

In 1974, on this day, August 9, the 37th President of the United States resigned from office, succeeded by Gerald Ford.

That was a great day, as a lawless, corrupt President, Richard Nixon, pressured by Republican leaders in both houses of Congress, willingly left, still a believer that he had been wronged, but ending a constitutional crisis, and giving us a President, Gerald Ford, who was certainly not without faults. But Ford was far better than the horror if Vice President Spiro Agnew had not been discovered for his corruption and forced to resign in October 1973, as Agnew would have been even worse than Nixon, so America was saved.

Now we have a President, even more lawless and corrupt than Richard Nixon, a willing accomplice of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, a scenario that never would have crossed the mind of Richard Nixon. Donald Trump is working to destroy our whole constitutional system of government, and manipulates and distorts and lies, willing to do anything to gain absolute power by being reelected this November.

Richard Nixon had real accomplishments, despite his evil nature, and some of his greatest accomplishments are being destroyed by Donald Trump, who wishes to undo all good done under both Democratic and Republican Presidents in the ninety years since Franklin D. Roosevelt came to the Presidency during the First Great Depression.

Now, Donald Trump is presiding over a Second Great Depression, even more heartless and lacking in empathy or concern than Herbert Hoover.

And his Vice President, Mike Pence, is a religious extremist, with no principles, and hoping to impose his and his wife’s evil, narrow minded views about women’s rights and gay rights upon the nation in the future. He wishes to promote the extreme right wing views of disgraceful hypocrites, such as Franklin Graham, Jerry Falwell, Jr, Ralph Reed, Tony Perkins, and others who want a theocracy in America.

So on the 46th anniversary of Richard Nixon’s resignation, the nation is faced with a crisis that may become worse, with the US Postal Service being politically manipulated to attempt to undermine mail voting. This is occurring in a time of a massive CoronaVirus Pandemic that the government on the national level and in many Republican states, including my resident state of Florida, are failing to deal with. This is creating an even greater health crisis that makes America the embarrassment of the entire world community!

The Unpredictable Supreme Court Due To Republican “Maverick” Appointments

The history of the Supreme Court since 1953 has been one of unpredictability, due to Republican “Maverick” Appointments, who surprise conservatives who thought having a Republican President insured their narrow minded views of the Constitution and the law.

America has been fortunate that every Republican President from Dwight D. Eisenhower to Donald Trump has made an appointment that surprised the nation, and promoted social progress long term.

Eisenhower appointed Chief Justice Earl Warren and Associate Justice William Brennan.

Richard Nixon appointed Chief Justice Warren Burger and Associate Justice Harry Blackmun.

Gerald Ford appointed Associate Justice John Paul Stevens.

Ronald Reagan appointed Associate Justices Sandra Day O’Connor and Anthony Kennedy.

George H. W. Bush appointed Associate Justice David Souter.

George W. Bush appointed Chief Justice John Roberts.

Donald Trump appointed Associate Justice Neil Gorsuch.

So ten appointments in the past two thirds of a century have made a dramatic difference in so many ways, including racial integration, school prayer, abortion rights, ObamaCare, gay rights, and other significant areas.

Three Longest Economic Expansions Since World War II Took Place Under Democratic Presidents

When one realizes that all economic recessions since 1953, except one brief one in 1980 under Jimmy Carter, occurred under Republican Presidents, it makes it an important issue for the upcoming Presidential Election of 2020.

It turns out that the three longest economic expansions since World War II took place under Democratic Presidents as follows:

128 months–from June 2009 to February 2020—occurring under Barack Obama, and President Donald Trump benefiting from it for three years as a carryover.

120 months–from March 1991 to March 2001–ironically not helping Republican President George H. W. Bush, and with Bill Clinton presiding over every month of his Presidency seeing economic expansion.

106 months–February 1961 to December 1969–under John F. Kennedy after first month all the way through Lyndon B . Johnson, and carrying over for 11 months for Republican President Richard Nixon.

So four of the last five Democratic Presidents had superb records of economic expansion, with Bill Clinton and Lyndon B. Johnson having such conditions throughout their Presidencies, and John F. Kennedy all but the first month, and Barack Obama all but five months.

But even under Jimmy Carter, expansion went on from his inauguration in January 1977 until January 1980, as part of economic growth that began under Republican President Gerald Ford in March 1975. Had the economy not gone downhill in 1980, it is likely that Carter might have defeated Ronald Reagan!

Quite a record for Democrats to brag about on the campaign trail!

Corruption Levels Of Democratic And Republican Presidencies Since 1963

Fifty six years have passed since Lyndon B. Johnson became President, and in that period, we have had six Republican Presidents and four Democratic Presidents.

Republicans have held the Presidency thirty plus years since 1969, and Democrats have been in the White House for 25 years in that half century plus.

The record shows that Democrats have had a total of three executive branch officials indicted, with one conviction and one prison sentence.

Meanwhile, Republicans have had a total of 120 executive branch officials indicted, with 89 criminal convictions and 33 prison sentences.

To be fair, Gerald Ford and George H. W. Bush each had one indictment, one conviction, and one prison sentence each.

But Richard Nixon had 76 criminal indictments, 55 convictions, and 15 prison sentences, while Ronald Reagan had 26 criminal indictments, 16 convictions, and 8 prison sentences, and George W. Bush had 16 criminal indictments, 16 convictions, and 8 prison sentences.

Meanwhile, Bill Clinton had, after all the investigations and publicity by Republicans in Congress, a total of 2 criminal indictments, one conviction, and one prison sentence. Jimmy Carter had one indictment, and no convictions and no prison sentences, while Barack Obama had ZERO indictments, convictions, and prison sentences.

And then, there is Donald Trump, who already, in less than three years, has seen 6 major figures indicted and convicted and having prison sentences, including Michael Cohen, Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, George Papadopoulos, and now, Roger Stone, and many others Russian connected also facing criminal charges that may not lead to convictions because they are in Russia.

And this does not include the many past and present cabinet members and other significant figures who have been caught in corruption, and will, in many cases, face indictments, convictions, and prison sentences in the future, as this administration is likely to surpass all previous Republican Presidents in levels of criminality!

14 Weeks Until First Vote In Iowa Caucuses

As the House of Representatives is working on its impeachment inquiry involving President Donald Trump, the political calendar is starting to close in on many Democratic Presidential contenders.

It is now only 14 weeks until the first Americans vote on 2020, with the Iowa Caucuses taking place on Monday, February 3.

Iowa is not truly decisive on who wins the nomination and the Presidency in either major political party, as the only times that Iowa was a sign of the future was when an incumbent President was not on the ballot, and even then, not very often.

Democratic Party

Walter Mondale in 1984

Al Gore in 2000

John Kerry in 2004

Barack Obama in 2008

Hillary Clinton in 2016

George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Michael Dukakis in 1988, and Bill Clinton in 1992 failed to win Iowa.

Republican Party

Gerald Ford in 1976

Bob Dole in 1996

George W. Bush in 2000

Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H. W. Bush in 1988, John McCain in 2008, Mitt Romney in 2012, and Donald Trump in 2016 failed to win Iowa.

So only George W. Bush in 2000 and Barack Obama in 2008 won Iowa and went on to win the Presidency in the fall of those years.

So do not expect that who wins Iowa will automatically be the nominee for the Democrats in November 2020.

Since 1972, Iowa has been accurate on the Democratic nominee 43 percent of the time, and 50 percent accurate on the Republican nominee.

Iowa is not representative of the nation in its population mix, but it gives a leg up to a few of the candidates, while dashing the hopes of so many others.

Republican Senators Might Prefer Mike Pence As A “Pure” Conservative Without The Instability And Drama Of Donald Trump

Following up on yesterday’s blog entry about the potential for up to 23 Republican Senators voting to remove Donald Trump from the Oval Office if there was an impeachment trial in upcoming months, there is speculation that many Republican Senators would prefer Mike Pence in the Presidency.

The argument is that Mike Pence would represent all of the “good things” about conservatism—the promotion of more right wing judges; more cutting of regulations; more tax cuts for the wealthy; more promotion of “Christian values”; and all without the instability and drama of Donald Trump.

And under this scenario, if Mike Pence came into office, assuredly, he would pardon Donald Trump, as Gerald Ford did with Richard Nixon 45 years ago, and nothing could be done to prevent that.

Understand, as if there is any doubt, that this blogger and author would be totally opposed to any such development, and what it would mean in promoting conservatism without the disaster of Donald Trump.

But it does seem to be a reasonable situation that could develop in the next few months of this impeachment drama.

Pete Buttigieg A Fascinating Presidential Candidate In So Many Ways

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg would be the youngest President in history if he won the Presidential election in 2020, and he would be succeeding a President twice his age.

Mayor Pete, as he is called by most, is a highly intellectual man, who can speak seven languages, while Donald Trump is poor even in speaking and writing English.

Mayor Pete is a gay man, who hid his sexuality until a few years ago, as he wished to pursue a life with someone, and realized he had to “come out”, and he is now married to Chasten Glezman, who has taken his last name, and is seven and a half years younger at age 30, and has been a middle school drama teacher.

Mayor Pete is an Afghanistan War veteran, a Naval Reserve Officer, and an intelligence officer from 2009-2017, reaching the rank of Lieutenant, and who also graduated from Harvard Magna Cum Laude, and went to Oxford University in the United Kingdom on a Rhodes Scholarship. He was also valedictorian of his high school class in South Bend, Indiana. He also won the JFK Profiles in Courage award and met Caroline Kennedy and other family members at the JFK Presidential Library in 2000, having written his essay on Independent Congressman Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who now, ironically, is one of his opponents for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

In his two terms as Mayor of South Bend, Buttigieg won 74 and 80 percent of the vote, and was first mayor at age 29. He also gained notice as a contender to head the Democratic National Committee in 2017.

Buttigieg is also a regular church goer at a local Episcopal Church in South Bend, and more “religious” than most recent Presidents in his public display of attendance, probably the most since Jimmy Carter.

Buttigieg is also interesting in that he is left handed, a common trait among many recent Presidents, including Harry Truman, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, while only James A. Garfield and Herbert Hoover among earlier Presidents, was left handed.

He also would be the first President to be an only child, while four earlier Presidents had half siblings–Franklin D. Roosevelt, Gerald Ford, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama.

In so many ways, Mayor Pete is far superior to Donald Trump, and it would be an inspiration if he could win the Presidency in 2020.

Bob Dole Reaches 96 Years Of Age, Now Seen As Statesman

Former Senator Bob Dole of Kansas yesterday reached the age of 96, and while often involved in heated political debates over four decades, is now seen as a statesman.

Dole served in the House of Representatives from 1961-1969, and as United States Senator from 1969 to 1996. He was the Chair of the Republican National Committee from 1971-1973; Chair of the Senate Finance Committee from 1981-1985; Senate Minority Leader from 1987-1995; and twice Senate Majority Leader from 1985-1987 and 1995-1996.

He had the distinction of being the Republican Vice Presidential nominee under Gerald Ford in the Presidential Election of 1976, and then the Presidential nominee in 1996, both losing efforts. He is the only person to be nominated for both offices, and lose both offices.

Dole was a combative, and often acerbic politician, who annoyed this blogger and author, but one knew that he was an ultimate patriot and would support Democrats in important and crisis moments over the years, while being a very partisan Republican.

He worked across the aisle with many Democrats, including Senator George McGovern of South Dakota on nutrition issues and food stamps.

He was a war hero, who nearly died in combat in Europe in April 1945, and lost the use of his left arm and limited mobility in his right arm, but that did not stop him from having a public career, and being an advocate for the disabled.

Dole has had a great sense of humor, and has worked to promote bipartisanship, starting the Robert J. Dole Institute of Politics at the University of Kansas campus in Lawrence, Kansas.

He helped to raise funds for the National World War II Memorial in Washington, DC, and was awarded the Congressional Gold Medal in 2018, and was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by his former opponent, Bill Clinton, in 1997.

His marriage to Elizabeth Hanford Dole has lasted 44 years, and his wife served as Secretary of Transportation under Ronald Reagan, and as Secretary of Labor under George H. W. Bush, before serving as a US Senator from North Carolina from 2003-2009.

By reaching the age of 96 today, Dole has outlived most of the colleagues of his age group who served in public office, and is one of the last World War II veterans of renown still with us.

Let us hope he reaches 100, although now he is almost exclusively using a wheel chair as he did in saluting his former rival, George H. W. Bush, at the funeral of the 41st President in December 2018.