Richard Nixon Pardon

The Gerald Ford Presidency Began Today 49 Years Ago

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Gerald Ford succeeded to the Presidency on this day 49 years ago, upon the resignation of Richard Nixon, due to the Watergate Scandal, and the Republican Party leadership pushing him to leave the Presidency.

A half century ago, the Republican Party leadership had principles, unlike today in the time of the Donald Trump crisis, when they have, consistently, backed him even through two impeachments, three indictments, and more to come!

Gerald Ford never expected to be President, and was appointed Vice President, with approval of the opposition controlled Democratic Party, upon the resignation of Vice President Spiro Agnew, who left due to his own corruption, which, thankfully, was discovered, as he would have been a true nightmare, worse than Nixon, had he become President!

Gerald Ford’s ranking has been in the mid 20s among Presidents, with him best remembered for pardoning Nixon, which was criticized at the time; commended a quarter century later; and now has been criticized again as having made it more difficult to remove Donald Trump from the Presidency, when there were opportunities to do so.

And now, Donald Trump is refusing to accept limits on what he can say about his upcoming trials, and is attacking prosecutors, judges, and potential witnesses, and no easy answer what to do about his recklessness.

Gerald Ford is perceived as the most “approachable” Republican President, and his wife, Betty Ford, was delightful as First Lady.

His major impact long term was his appointment of Associate Justice John Paul Stevens, who started out as a “conservative”, and retired 35 years later as the most “liberal” member of the Court, having grown and expanded his views on the Constitution and its meaning!

When Ford passed away in 2006, the nation mourned the death of a President who, despite much turmoil at the time, took us through a difficult time with grace and decency!

Two Presidential Deaths Commemorated: Harry Truman And Gerald Ford!

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It has been a half century (1972) since President Harry Truman passed away.

It has also been 16 years (2006) since President Gerald Ford died.

These two Presidents, one a Democrat, the other a Republican, share the same day of death, 34 years apart.

Ford was elected to the House of Representatives from Grand Rapids, Michigan, in 1948, the year of the miracle victory of President Truman against Thomas E. Dewey and the so called “Do Nothing” 80th Congress, with Truman gaining the nickname “Give Them Hell Harry”!

Both Truman and Ford have seen their stock rise in history, with Truman considered by many at the time of his retirement to be a “failure”, with a very low public opinion rating, but now generally acknowledged as either number 5 or 6 in all scholarly rankings of Presidents.

Gerald Ford remains in the mid 20s in scholarly rankings, but his reputation for his brief Presidency has improved dramatically. There is overall positive approval now of his transition from the corruption of Richard Nixon, and acceptance a quarter century after his pardon of Richard Nixon that he did the right thing to promote moving on beyond Watergate. And for many including this author and blogger, he has become a favored Republican President, more so than any Chief Executive of that party since Dwight D. Eisenhower, and with universal popularity of First Lady Betty Ford!

47th Anniversary Of Richard Nixon Resignation, And Gerald Ford Becoming The 38th President!

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Today, August 9, in 1974, the nation and the world witnessed Richard Nixon resigning the Presidency.

The event also elevated Gerald Ford to become the 38th President, and the only one NOT elected Vice President or President, due to the 25th Amendment, which saved the nation after Vice President Spiro Agnew had earlier resigned in October 1973, due to corruption charges.

If there were no 25th Amendment, ratified in 1967, Speaker of the House Carl Albert, a Democrat, with no desire to be President, and having a well known liquor problem, would have been the successor to the Oval Office.

Certainly, Albert would have been preferable to Spiro Agnew.

But despite controversy over Ford pardoning Nixon on September 8, 1974, which was a major factor in his defeat to Jimmy Carter in the 1976 Presidential election, Ford has been perceived in recent decades as the “right” person in a time of turmoil.

One can criticize President Ford, but also, one can see that Ford calmed the nation and in many ways, has been perceived in a better light over the decades.

The Trump Family Is The Most Disgraceful And Corrupt Presidential Family In American History!

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The history of the Presidency shows some Presidential relatives have been far from ideal in their behavior.

Just in recent times, we had Roger Clinton, the half brother of Bill Clinton, being given a pardon from a drug conviction.

We had Billy Carter, who caused grief when he visited Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi during his brother’s Presidency.

Others had siblings who were drunkards, and some had relatives engaged in some questionable business dealings, as some of the sons of Franklin D. Roosevelt.

But no Presidential Family can match that of Donald Trump.

It has been leaked that Trump’s three oldest children, all with his first wife Ivana, are potentially about to gain pardons.

This includes Donald Trump, Jr; Ivanka Trump; Eric Trump; and Ivanka’s husband, Jared Kushner, all of whom have engaged in shady business dealings, and potentially more to be uncovered.

Even pardons will not prevent prosecution of Trump’s children and son in law in New York City and New York State, so there will be plenty of headlines about these disgraceful Trump progeny!

Trump himself may be the second President, after Richard Nixon, to be pardoned, or even try to pardon himself, which is doubtful legally.

In any case, if any of Trump’s children, or Trump himself, accepts a pardon, it is a sign of guilt, as Gerald Ford said after pardoning Richard Nixon in 1974.

And add to this list, third wife Melania Trump, who has displayed disgraceful behavior and a mean spirit, and has contributed nothing positive to the history of First Ladies!

With seven weeks to go until Joe Biden and his wonderful wife, Dr. Jill Biden, take over the White House, we cannot easily wait out the nightmare of that much more time with the Trumps as the First Family!

Could Donald Trump Resign Before The Election, Or After The Election Before The Inauguration?

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There is some speculation that Donald Trump, who has been behind Joe Biden steadily in public opinion polls for many months, might be thinking of resigning before the election, rather than face defeat, which would be very hard for him psychologically. Or he could resign after the election before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2021.

Trump has a history of quitting, with six bankruptcies, and as bad as it would be for him to resign, it could be seen by him as better than the embarrassment of defeat, one that could be a massive landslide. Or he could take the action after defeat, in an attempt to avoid prosecution.

The plan being theorized is that Donald Trump would resign, let Vice President Mike Pence take over, and then be pardoned by Pence.

This situation would be unprecedented, very different than Richard Nixon resigning in August 1974, giving Gerald Ford a term of two years and five and a half months.

But that would upend the election process if it took place before the election, as there would not be time for Mike Pence to choose a running mate to replace himself, and would only insure a more humiliating defeat in November.

Whether before or after the election, it would give Mike Pence the shortest Presidency, except for William Henry Harrison’s one month in 1841.

And despite his sychophantic nature, would Mike Pence want it in history that in his four months or less Presidency, that he is noted for pardoning a President from the legion of crimes that he and Trump were engaged in?

And even if Pence gave a pardon, it would not include New York State charges of financial crimes and other crimes committed on New York property.

So there is no fool proof way out for Donald Trump, who now seems insured of trial and prison on a multitude of charges when he leaves office.

Such charges could not happen to a “better person”, utilizing sarcasm to its extreme!

Republican Senators Might Prefer Mike Pence As A “Pure” Conservative Without The Instability And Drama Of Donald Trump

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Following up on yesterday’s blog entry about the potential for up to 23 Republican Senators voting to remove Donald Trump from the Oval Office if there was an impeachment trial in upcoming months, there is speculation that many Republican Senators would prefer Mike Pence in the Presidency.

The argument is that Mike Pence would represent all of the “good things” about conservatism—the promotion of more right wing judges; more cutting of regulations; more tax cuts for the wealthy; more promotion of “Christian values”; and all without the instability and drama of Donald Trump.

And under this scenario, if Mike Pence came into office, assuredly, he would pardon Donald Trump, as Gerald Ford did with Richard Nixon 45 years ago, and nothing could be done to prevent that.

Understand, as if there is any doubt, that this blogger and author would be totally opposed to any such development, and what it would mean in promoting conservatism without the disaster of Donald Trump.

But it does seem to be a reasonable situation that could develop in the next few months of this impeachment drama.

Midterm Election History In First Presidential Midterms Since 1946, And Likelihood Of Results Of Midterm Elections In 2018

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With the Midterm Elections of 2018 upon us in less than two weeks, it is time to analyze midterm election results in the first such elections after a new President has come to office, starting with Harry Truman in 1946 and all the way through to Barack Obama in 2010.

We are discussing 12 Presidents and how they were factors in the midterm elections which followed their entering the Presidency.

Six of the 12 Presidents entered that first midterm election with their popularity in public opinion polls under 50 percent—with the order of lack of popularity being lowest to highest the following—Truman, Reagan, Lyndon B. Johnson, Obama, Clinton, and Carter. Notice this list is all Democrats except for Reagan.

The other six Presidents were above 50 percent popularity at the time of the first midterm elections–from the highest to the lowest being George W. Bush, Kennedy, Eisenhower, George H. W. Bush, Nixon, Ford. Notice this list is all Republicans except for Kennedy.

The record shows that only George W. Bush and Kennedy saw the best results, with Bush seeing a gain of 8 House seats and 1 Senate seat, in the year after September 11, and Kennedy losing 4 House seats but gaining 2 Senate seats in the weeks after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.

And George H. W. Bush, Nixon, and Eisenhower midterms showed respectively 8 House seats and 1 Senate seat lost; 12 House Seats lost and 1 Senate seat gained; and 18 House seats and 1 Senate seat lost.

Only Ford, three months after taking over the Presidency, and with still a high public opinion rating of 54 percent, but the Nixon Watergate Scandal still reverberating with Ford’s pardon of Nixon, do we see a major loss of 48 House seats and 4 Senate seats lost.

Meanwhile, those six Presidents with a lower than 50 percent public opinion poll rating at the first midterm of their Presidency saw a much greater loss, with Carter having the smallest loss, 15 House seats and 3 Senate seats lost with a 49 percent rating.

Reagan, with a 42 percent rating, lowest except for Truman, saw a loss of 26 House seats but one Senate seat gained.

The other four Presidents—Johnson, Clinton, Truman, Obama—suffered far worse losses—with Johnson losing 48 House seats and losing 4 Senate seats, the same as Ford, who had ten points higher public opinion rating of 54 percent to LBJ’s 44 percent.

Clinton, Truman, and Obama, all Democrats,lost massively in seats in both houses of Congress—Clinton losing 54 House seats and losing 8 Senate seats; Truman losing 55 House seats and losing 12 Senate seats; and Obama losing 63 House seats and losing 6 Senate seats.

What all this leads to is the strong belief that Donald Trump, with 47 percent approval rating most recently, will see a major loss of House seats for sure, and the guess at this time, after much reflection, is that it will be between 40-45 seats. In the Senate, with the great Republican advantage in only having 9 seats open for election, and the Senate having a 51-49 Republican margin, the odds of the Democrats holding on to their seats and gaining two or more of the nine contested Republican seats would seem to lead likely to a 50-50 tie, meaning a one seat Democratic gain, but still a Republican controlled Senate at 50-50, whereby Vice President Mike Pence will still organize the Senate for the next two years. This so unless there is a move by Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, who voted against Brett Kavanaugh, and has been attacked by her state’s Republican party leadership, to switch to Independent or Democratic support, and giving the Senate to the Democrats.

The Governorships generally follow Congressional results, and are extremely important for reapportionment of state legislative districts and US House districts after the Census 2020 population figures are tabulated, so having more Governors of one party over the other are crucial. At this point, it would seem likely that the Democrats will gain from 16 present Governorships by 10-11, and have 26-27 Chief Executives of states.

So overall, a Democratic gain to a majority of House seats to about 235-240 and 26-27 Governorships, but likely a tied 50-50 Senate, putting the results worse for Trump than for Reagan in the House and Senate, but not as bad as for Ford among Republican Presidents.

Gerald Ford’s Pardoning Of Richard Nixon 44 Years Ago Today Should NOT Be Repeated For Donald Trump When And If Mike Pence Becomes President

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On this day, 44 years ago, President Gerald Ford pardoned former President Richard Nixon, immediately undermining his Presidency, and insuring his defeat in a close race with Jimmy Carter for a full term in the Presidency in the election of 1976.

Ford was appointed Vice President under the terms of the 25th Amendment in October 1973, and confirmed and sworn in two months later, after Vice President Spiro Agnew resigned due to his own scandalous behavior.

Gerald Ford had nothing to do with the Watergate scandal, but by pardoning Nixon, while others involved in the scandal went to prison, he became highly controversial, and was attacked and vilified by many.

A quarter century later, however, Ford’s reputation revived, when a major critic, Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts, arranged for an award to be given to the former President, the John F. Kennedy library “Profile in Courage Award”.

Ford looks much better in history now, and in many ways, is the model of what an old style Republican President should be like, in the age of Donald Trump.

But this occasion of the pardoning of Richard Nixon brings to mind the idea that at some point, Donald Trump might be pardoned for his crimes, and the answer should be absolutely not, as Trump has gone way beyond Richard Nixon in his crimes, and will be shown to have committed treason, which no one has ever said Nixon did.

IF Vice President Mike Pence overcomes suspicions of his own collaboration and involvement in this massive scandal we are dealing with now, the worst thing he could do is pardon Donald Trump.

Unfortunately, there is no legal way to prevent such an action, but if it occurs, there will be a firestorm much worse than Ford experienced in 1974, and it would insure that Mike Pence would have no chance to be elected for a full term.

It would also further cement the demise of the Republican Party reputation, and likely, the future of the party under that name, and it could lead to the destruction of that party apparatus, and its replacement by a new mainstream conservative oriented political party.

Donald Trump Has Lowest Popularity Rating Of One Year President Since Polling Began

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With one year in office, Donald Trump ranks as the lowest popularity rating of all Presidents since public opinion polling began as a full time effort in the Presidency of Harry Truman after 1945.

The FiveThirtyEight blog shows that Trump’s overall average in January is 40 percent in favor and 55 percent opposed.

Every other President after a year in office ranks as more popular than not popular.

The least popular after Trump is Gerald Ford, with 44 percent in favor after one year and 39 opposed, and a lot of this result was due to Ford’s pardoning of Richard Nixon one month into his term.

Following up the list, we have Barack Obama 50-43; Ronald Reagan 49-40; Harry Truman 50-35; Bill Clinton 57-34; Jimmy Carter 55-27; Richard Nixon 60-23; Dwight D. Eisenhower 71-18; Lyndon B. Johnson 74-15; George H. W. Bush 78-11; George W. Bush 81-13; and at the top of the list John F. Kennedy 79-10.

So from Ford to JFK, the net approval is from plus 5 points to plus 69 points.

Of course, many of these great public opinion ratings deteriorated over time, particularly with Truman, Carter, Nixon, Johnson, and the Bushes, but they, along with all other Presidents, ranked more popular than not popular at this early stage of their White House tenure.

Those supportive of Trump love to point out that he has risen slightly from the low to mid 30s, but with the constant tumult and chaos in the White House, and his horrible, thoughtless, and cruel policies on so many issues, it is assured that Trump will never rise to a more positive than negative view of him and his Presidency.

Harry Truman And Gerald Ford Share Death Date Of December 26 in 1972 And 2006

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The day after Christmas is a day shared by two Presidents in death.

The 33rd President, Harry Truman, died on this day in 1972.

The 38th President, Gerald Ford. died on this day in 2006.

These two Presidents, the first a Democrat, the second a Republican, shared many common traits.

Both were from the Midwest–Truman from Missouri, and Ford from Hichigan.

Both faced challenging times and issues–Truman with the end of World War II; the Atomic Bomb issue; the Berlin Blockade and Airlift; the Korean War;-McCarthyism;–and Ford with the pardoning of Richard Nixon; the final end of the Vietnam War; the Mayaguez Affair with Cambodia; the two assassination attempts 17 days apart in September 1975; and the challenge of Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Both faced public opinion polls that made their governing difficult, with Truman surprising everyone with his upset victory over Thomas E. Dewey in 1948; and Ford almost winning a full term in 1976, and only losing because of close vote returns in Ohio and Hawaii.

Both had no desire to be President, and had not sought it, with both succeeding to the Presidency when Franklin D. Roosevelt died in 1945, and Richard Nixon resigned in 1974.

Both died at advanced ages, with Truman seven and a half months past the age of 88; and Ford five and a half months past 93, and the longest lived President until George H. W. Bush passed his age on November 25, a month ago, and also to be surpassed by Jimmy Carter on March 16, 2018.

Both Presidents have gained in stature in death and in retrospect, although Truman is in the top ten Presidents of all time, usually around number five or six in most scholarly polls, while Ford is in the mid to high 20s as an average President.

But both came along, unexpectedly, and performed their responsibilities in an admirable way, and have gained respect that both might not have imagined in their lifetimes.