Democratic Party

Republican Presidential Nominees And Presidents, And Their Running Mates: No Love Lost, Historically!

It is clear from the study of history and news coverage over the past half century that Republican Presidential candidate and even Republican Presidents have NOT been enamored with their Vice Presidential running mates or Vice Presidents.

We go back to Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew as the first example, with Nixon using Agnew to attack the news media and Democrats in the midterm 1970 Congressional elections, but having little personal regard for him, and unwilling to come to his support when Agnew was revealed to be engaged in corruption, which would force his resignation in October 1973.

Then, Nixon selected Gerald Ford as his Vice Presidential replacement more on the idea that he felt that Ford, while well liked in Congress, would not be seen by opposition Democrats as all that competent to replace Nixon during the impeachment crisis of 1973-1974.

Gerald Ford seems to have really admired and felt comfortable with Nelson Rockefeller as his Vice President under the 25th Amendment, but agreed to drop him from the ticket in 1976 to please conservatives, led by Ronald Reagan, and to select Senator Bob Dole of Kansas as his replacement.

Ronald Reagan may have utilized George H. W. Bush’s expertise, but had little personal regard for Bush, and the Bushes were never invited to dinner at the White House during the eight years of their association.

Bush certainly had little faith and trust in Dan Quayle during his Presidency, and the nation knew it, and worried about the incompetence of Quayle.

Bob Dole’s selection of Jack Kemp in 1996 to be his running mate as Vice President certainly was not as a result of friendship or warmth, and they seemed an ill fit, often disagreeing during the campaign.

George W. Bush selected Dick Cheney in 2000 due to his vast experience, and allowed himself to be dominated in the first term, but their association soured dramatically in the second term.

John McCain seems to have been forced to select Sarah Palin in 2008, and Palin helped to undermine McCain, but McCain continues to defend Palin even today, although it seems clear how uncomfortable he is when answering questions about Palin.

The Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan connection in 2012 seems also not to have been one of great warmth and friendship.

And Mike Pence is squirming a lot as Vice Presidential running mate for Donald Trump, seeing Trump contradict him openly and making clear his lack of regard for Pence, including being upset that Pence performed better in his debate with Tim Kaine, than Trump did with Hillary Clinton in their three Presidential debates.

Two Very Young Democrats Who Could Shape Future Of US Senate: Patrick Murphy (Florida), Jason Kander (Missouri)!

The minimum age to be a United States Senator is 30, and right now, we have two young Democrats seeking to become part of the upper house of Congress.

Congressman Patrick Murphy is running against Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and is only 33 years old; and Jason Kander, Missouri Secretary of State, is running against Senator Roy Blunt, and is only 35 years of age.

They would be the youngest members of the US Senate next year, and among the small number historically who have been Senators at such young ages.

They both offer “fresh blood” to the Democratic Party and the nation, and both could be considered, if successful and later re-elected in six years, as long range possibilities for higher office over the next generation of American politics.

We need younger Democrats to succeed and lead us into the future, as the “baby boomer” generation is having its “last hurrah” this year.

New ideas and inspired leadership will guarantee long range success, and both Florida and Missouri are significant states that could play a major role in the future in Presidential politics.

“Coattails” Vs. “Split Ticket”: Which Will Occur In November?

Now with two weeks to the election, speculation is rising that Hillary Clinton may win a landslide victory over Donald Trump, and that she might have “coattails”, help to carry in a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and Senate.

The Senate part of this equation seems very likely, but to gain the House of Representatives majority will be very difficult, with the Republicans having a 30 seat majority right now, greater than at any point since 1928.

The last time a President coming into office had the effect of switching both houses of Congress was 1952, when Dwight D. Eisenhower brought in Republican majorities, which, however, were lost by 1954.

After that, the House of Representatives did not fall into Republican hands again for 40 years, until 1994!

The Senate, however, did fall into Republican hands with the victory of Ronald Reagan in 1980, only to be reversed in 1986.

So best bet is that the House majority will be knocked down a great amount, maybe 20 seats gain, but short of a majority for the Democrats.

On the other hand, the Senate seems likely to turn over, and Hillary Clinton could help to switch the states of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Illinois, Wisconsin, Arizona, as well as Indiana, and keeping Nevada, the only contested Democratic seat, meaning a eight state gain for the Democrats, from 46 seats to 54, and including the likely defeat of Marco Rubio and John McCain.

Missouri, a less likely state for Hillary Clinton, but within reach, could also see Jason Kander, the Democratic nominee, defeat Senator Roy Blunt, but not seen as such, unless Missouri reverts to being a bellwether state which it was for a century, but not so in 2012.

Iowa and Ohio seem more likely to keep Chuck Grassley and Rob Portman, even if Hillary Clinton wins their states.

So the idea of a “split ticket”, only 11 percent in recent election years, seems only likely in those two Midwestern states, and maybe in Missouri and Indiana, but Hillary likely to carry other states listed above and help to make the Senate Democratic majority.

Could The Lone Star State Really Go “Blue”? If So, The Republican Party Future Is Over!

Latest polls indicate that the Lone Star State, Texas, with the second highest number of electoral votes, 38, could go for Hillary Clinton this year, tipping that state “Blue” four to eight years before it was expected to tilt, based on growth of Hispanic and Latino voting population.

Donald Trump is ahead only by three points, while Mitt Romney won Texas in 2012 by 16 points, so this is certainly a possibility that Hillary Clinton will win Texas this year.

IF she does, she will have a total electoral landslide, with over 400 electoral votes.

North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Utah, all “Red” states, are seen as likely to go to the Democrats, but Texas? Unbelievable!

If this happens, then it is possible that the House of Representatives majority will be in play, and the Senate looks much more likely to go to the Democrats, as we near Election Day in 20 days, but with many voters already having participated by mail or in early in person voting.

When and if Texas goes Democratic, the Republican Party is doomed for the long term, and will never win the White House again, until and unless they reorganize and change their attitudes and policies, including on immigration matters!

Trump Support Hemorraghing Rapidly In “Red” States!

Three weeks to go until the Presidential Election of 2016, and it seems clear, by public opinion polls,that Donald Trump’s support in “Red” states is hemorrhaging rapidly.

His mishandling of the sexual assault allegations has turned many Republicans against him, and his condemnation of Republican leadership, including Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, is damaging his ability even to hold on to the loyal Republican states.

So we have evidence that the following states are possible pick ups by Hillary Clinton:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Nebraska (or at least the Omaha area)

One can be quite certain that many of these states will, in the end, still back Donald Trump, but by a much smaller margin than for Mitt Romney in 2012 or John McCain in 2008.

But the first four on the above list look ripe for being picked up by Hillary Clinton and the Democrats.

I will post an entry close to the election on my final projections, and I remind my readers that, independent of Nate Silver in 2012, I projected, as he did, the precise electoral vote distribution-332-206.

I also will publish my projection on History News Network, and will be on radio with Jon Grayson of CBS St Louis, KMOX 1120 AM, Overnight with Jon Grayson, one of the radio shows I have been on, and posted on the right side of the blog, on Election Night at 1 AM ET on November 9, a few hours after the polls have closed, to comment on the results.

Marco Rubio And John McCain In Trouble As Hillary Clinton Gains in Florida And Arizona

Marco Rubio and John McCain are in trouble as Hillary Clinton gains in Florida and Arizona.

Rubio, who was humiliated by Donald Trump in the Florida GOP Presidential primary, only winning his home county of Miami-Dade, and had the worst attendance record in the Senate, and said he did not like being a Senator, now wants to come back.

But Patrick Murphy, the Democratic Congressman challenging him, is edging closer in polls, as Hillary Clinton seems very likely to win the state, with more Democratic registration, particularly with Puerto Ricans from the island migrating in large numbers in last couple of years to Orlando and other areas of Central Florida.

McCain, always seen as insufficiently conservative by many in Arizona, is witnessing a growing likelihood that Clinton could win Arizona, with increased numbers of Hispanic and Latino voters, and his race against Ann Kirkpatrick, Congresswoman from the First District, being very close in the polls. So after 30 years in the US Senate, and being the nominee of the party for President in 2008, McCain, at age 80, may face mandatory retirement in November!

Donald Trump Determined To Take Republican Party Down With Him, And Must Be Soundly Defeated On November 8!

Donald Trump is becoming more nutty and dangerous by the day!

Just imagine such an unhinged President, a constant constitutional crisis.

This man would be ready to wage war over any slight; dictate to Congress and the courts, even though there is a separation of powers in our Constitution; suspend the Bill of Rights at every criticism by news media; and he would, most certainly, have the most corrupt administration in American history.

He is like a human tornado, totally unbalanced and reckless, and it would seem that even Republicans would work with Democrats to remove him from office by impeachment, but meanwhile, the nation would suffer greatly in both economic and foreign policy crises.

Donald Trump seems determined to bring the Republican Party down with him, and is on the attack against Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Senator John McCain in particular, and he has crazy followers who are following him as if he was a Superman.

He is a menace of massive proportions, and all decent people must mobilize to insure that there is no chance of a close election, as then he can claim it was “rigged”.

Trump needs to lose by a massive landslide, and win less than 40 percent of the vote, and be totally rebuked and punished.

With Four Weeks To Go, Republican Party Is In Full Panic Mode And Moving Toward Civil War Over Donald Trump!

Total anarchy, full panic mode, and movement toward civil war—that is the state of the Republican Party four weeks before the Presidential Election of 2016.

Donald Trump has gone on a Twitter attack on Paul Ryan, Speaker of the House, for refusing to campaign for or appear with Trump at any political rally.

Trump supporters and Tea Party radicals are threatening retribution against Republican members of Congress who refuse to support Trump.

Conservatives are also bitterly divided over Trump, as for example, Glenn Beck and Hugh Hewitt condemning Trump, and Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, Laura Ingraham, and others totally supporting him.

Trump supporters showing up at rallies are talking revolution, a scary proposition, if Democrat Hillary Clinton wins next month, which she most assuredly will accomplish.

And now, lunatic Maine Governor Paul Le Page is talking about the need for an authoritarian President to deal with, get this, what he terms the authoritarian actions of Barack Obama in the past eight years.

The danger of a total breakdown of our government is looming, due to what Donald Trump has wrought in the past 16 months, and we are on the verge of a massive constitutional crisis!

Utah, The Mormon State, Could Vote Democratic For First Time Since 1964, When They Voted Against Barry Goldwater

Utah, the Mormon state, has had an interesting history in their voting patterns on the Presidential elections.

Coming into the Union in 1896, Utah voted for Democrat William Jennings Bryan that year; for Woodrow Wilson in his second term bid in 1916; for Franklin D. Roosevelt four times in 1932, 1936, 1940, and 1944; for Harry Truman in 1948; and for Lyndon Johnson in 1964 (over Barry Goldwater).

So if Utah goes for Hillary Clinton, which now seems likely, it will be the first time in 52 years.

With Utah politicians, including Senator Mike Lee, Congressman Jason Chaffetz, and former Governor Jon Huntsman condemning Donald Trump, and with Mitt Romney, the most famous Mormon and 2012 Republican Presidential nominee, being vehemently anti Trump from the beginning of the 2016 Presidential race, it is seen as a blow to Trump having any chance to keep that state loyal to the Republican Party, which is natural in the past half century. Realize that Romney won 3-1 over Barack Obama four years ago!

Two Former Democratic Senators On Way To Return To US Senate: Russ Feingold And Evan Bayh!

It seems as if two former Democratic Senators are on their way to a return to the US Senate this November.

Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, one of the very best progressive oriented Senators in all of American history, who lost his seat in the 2010 midterm elections to businessman and Republican Ron Johnson, after serving from 1992-2010, is now way ahead of Johnson, and so we will have a rare rematch. Johnson has been a horrible, extremist right wing Senator, and his leaving the Senate will be a plus for the institution, and re-install the progressive tradition, established by the La Follette father and son, Robert Sr. and Robert Jr. a century ago, and followed up by William Proxmire, Gaylord Nelson and Feingold.

Evan Bayh of Indiana, son of the great liberal Senator Birch Bayh, served in the Senate from 1998-2010, and chose not to run for reelection, but now is coming back to win his Senate seat. Bayh is much more moderate than his dad was, but Indiana is a tough state for a progressive, and Bayh is a plus for the Democrats, as they attempt to win a Senate majority, so important for the Supreme Court future.

The odds of a Democratic takeover of the Senate is growing as we come down to one month to the elections.