Democratic Party

The Division Of The Suburbs Politically: Inner Vs. Outer

Indications are that suburbia, traditionally Republican for decades, is changing.

Political observers see two areas of suburbia–the inner suburbs near major urban areas, and the outer suburbs, much further away and closer to rural areas.

The inner suburbs have become more racially and ethnically diverse, and are tending toward the Democratic Party, as in California’s Orange County as just one example in the Midterm Congressional Elections of 2018.

Meanwhile, the outer suburbs are seemingly very loyal to the Republican Party, since there is far less diversity further away from the cities, and reflect the conservative values common to rural America.

The fact that the inner suburbs are tending Democratic should be a good sign for the party in the Presidential Election of 2020, but whether what happened in 2018 is a trend, or an exception, is hard to assess at this point.

14 Weeks Until First Vote In Iowa Caucuses

As the House of Representatives is working on its impeachment inquiry involving President Donald Trump, the political calendar is starting to close in on many Democratic Presidential contenders.

It is now only 14 weeks until the first Americans vote on 2020, with the Iowa Caucuses taking place on Monday, February 3.

Iowa is not truly decisive on who wins the nomination and the Presidency in either major political party, as the only times that Iowa was a sign of the future was when an incumbent President was not on the ballot, and even then, not very often.

Democratic Party

Walter Mondale in 1984

Al Gore in 2000

John Kerry in 2004

Barack Obama in 2008

Hillary Clinton in 2016

George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Michael Dukakis in 1988, and Bill Clinton in 1992 failed to win Iowa.

Republican Party

Gerald Ford in 1976

Bob Dole in 1996

George W. Bush in 2000

Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H. W. Bush in 1988, John McCain in 2008, Mitt Romney in 2012, and Donald Trump in 2016 failed to win Iowa.

So only George W. Bush in 2000 and Barack Obama in 2008 won Iowa and went on to win the Presidency in the fall of those years.

So do not expect that who wins Iowa will automatically be the nominee for the Democrats in November 2020.

Since 1972, Iowa has been accurate on the Democratic nominee 43 percent of the time, and 50 percent accurate on the Republican nominee.

Iowa is not representative of the nation in its population mix, but it gives a leg up to a few of the candidates, while dashing the hopes of so many others.

Death Of ISIS Leader A Momentary Positive For Donald Trump, But It Will Not Last

The announcement this morning of the death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi by Special Forces in Syria is a momentary positive for Donald Trump, as was the case with the death of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan on May 2, 2011 during the administration of Barack Obama.

It will certainly go down as an accomplishment that Trump can lay claim to, as Obama did with Osama bin Laden.

But it does not mean that America is safely isolated from the Middle East quagmire, and since so many ISIS fighters were released from prison as a result of the Turkish assault in Syria against Kurds in the past two weeks, one can be sadly assured that there will be a revival of ISIS under different leadership, ready to commit terrorist acts and torture people as they did from 2014 onward.

The likelihood of ISIS retribution for the death of their leader is certain, and will affect European nations but also the United States, making the idea of foreign travel by Americans not a good idea short term, and possibly, long term.

We can rejoice and congratulate Donald Trump on this, but the road ahead in international affairs in the year up to the Presidential Election of 2020 is impossible to predict, as to whether it will benefit Trump, or his Democratic opposition, all based on events we cannot forecast.

Republican Senators Who Do Not Support Lindsey Graham Resolution Condemning House Impeachment Inquiry

Mitt Romney of Utah

Susan Collins of Maine

Lisa Murkowski of Alaska

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

Mike Enzi of Wyoming

Cory Gardner of Colorado

Johnny Isakson of Georgia

This means that Lindsey Graham is not able to gain support from the entire Republican Senate caucus, and is a hint of the likelihood that such a resolution to condemn the House of Representatives Impeachment Inquiry will fail to gain a majority of the US Senate.

It could be that a vote for conviction in an impeachment trial might be 54-46, not enough to remove Donald Trump, but a major slap in the face, nevertheless to the 45th President.

And it could be more than seven Republican Senators could end up voting against Trump, although the likelihood of reaching the threshold of 20 Republicans joining with all 47 Democrats to remove Donald Trump is very much a long shot.

A Sense That Pete Buttigieg Is On The Rise As A Moderate Alternative To Joe Biden

The big winner of the Ohio Presidential debate this past week seems to many to be Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, who is seen as on the rise as a moderate alternative to Joe Biden.

Mayor Pete has been successful in raising large amounts of money in the third quarter, and his debate performance demonstrated his intelligence, his knowledge, and his perception of what Americans want, similar in his understanding of what Americans were looking for as when they voted for Barack Obama in 2008.

He is not promoting “pie in the sky”, massive changes in four years, as Bernie Sanders, and even Elizabeth Warren are doing, knowing full well that the nation is not going to elect a Democratic Congress large enough in majority to do the kinds of path breaking changes that Franklin D. Roosevelt and Lyndon B. Johnson were able to bring about in 1935-1936 and 1965-1966, respectively.

As Pete has said, we first need to recover from the chaos and anarchy of Donald Trump, and to expect the nation to go to the far left, and support a required end of all private health insurance, is simply not reality.

This blogger takes the view that Americans should have a choice of keeping the health care coverage they have, or move toward government control through Medicare, but not force it on everyone over a four year period, and always allow private health insurance as an alternative, left up to the decisions of individual Americans and their families.

A long range goal is extend Medicare in stages, first to those between 50-65, then those in their 40s, then those in their 30s, and continuing on, but again with private insurance allowed if preferred.

And in foreign affairs, Mayor Pete would offer a revival of American respect and responsibility, veering away from the disastrous and reckless diplomacy of Donald Trump, and would restore American rationality and respect among our allies, and recognition that he would not be pushed around by authoritarians as has been occurring with Donald Trump.

A young, dynamic President is needed, and Mayor Pete fills the bill, following in the Democratic Party tradition of John F. Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama. A new generation of leadership is required.

The Two Democrats Who Might Replace Joe Biden, And Both Are From The Midwest Battleground

Further thought and analysis on the Ohio Presidential debate of Tuesday makes this blogger and scholar believe that two Midwesterners–South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar—come out as the stars of the debate.

Both were very strong in promoting a moderate center left vision of the Democratic Party, which gives the party a better chance of success against Donald Trump.

Being from Indiana and Minnesota respectively gives either or both a better opportunity to contest the states lost by Hillary Clinton in 2016 by small margins.

So if Joe Biden slips, which seems very possible, both offer an equivalent vision of what Biden stands for, rather than the more leftist Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders.

There are still three and a half months to the first contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, so despite early indications that Biden, Warren, and Sanders have a dominant position, there is still time for alternatives, and the most likely, clearly, are Buttigieg and Klobuchar.

The Importance Of Social Justice In American Democracy

If an advanced modern nation, and one that strives to promote equal opportunity and advancement for all, fails to make social justice its key commitment for the future, then the nation has failed in its mission.

The battle in America is to strive to keep the advancements of social justice fought for over the century from the Progressive Era onward, but presently, we are seeing extremist right wing forces that wish to destroy the reforms and revert America back to the Gilded Age of the late 19th century.

If it was up to right wing forces, labor would have no bargaining rights; racial and ethnic minorities would return to a pattern of denial of their civil rights; women would come under the dominance of their husbands and of religious extremists who wish to deny them the right to control of their own destiny; basic social programs, such as Social Security, Medicare, and assistance to the disabled would be wiped out; and the wealthy would have no accountability to the nation that gave them the opportunity to prosper, and would use every trick possible to avoid paying a fair share of taxes, and would have no concern about the inequities of society, leading to a large portion of the population struggling to make ends meet.

So for a right wing propagandist to say that the Democratic Party is far left, when it is anything but that, is simply a sign of greed, selfishness, lack of compassion and empathy for those not born to wealth, or having unfair advantages in life without any accountability or conscience about the responsibility they owe to America.

The true danger in America is not a far left Democratic party, which does not really exist, but rather a far right, fascist oriented Republican Party, willing to sacrifice the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, the rule of law, and obsessed with an obscene acquisition of wealth for the sake of self aggrandizement.

Two Democratic Presidential Candidates Now Harmed In Quest For Nomination: Joe Biden And Bernie Sanders

It turns out that the two oldest Presidential contenders in 2020–Democrats Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, who would both reach 80 early in their term, if they won the Presidency–are both much more in danger in their quest to be the Presidential nominee by recent events.

Donald Trump’s claim that Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden were involved in Ukraine corruption seems clearly to have no logical or factual basis, but Trump is pushing the conspiracy theory, and it seems to be having some effect on public opinion, as a growing number of people polled want an investigation and more facts about the supposed “conspiracy”. So Joe Biden needs to be aggressive in dealing with this matter, as trying to ignore it is not going to work. It is clear that the upcoming election will be a “mud fight” with no holds barred, and one must be tough and willing to get involved in a boxing match, as Donald Trump has no limits in his indecency and willingness to corrupt and manipulate the truth!

At the same time, Bernie Sanders, no matter what his supporters wish, by having had a mild heart attack, only emphasizes his age, and makes one wonder could he, indeed, take the brunt of a rough campaign over the next 13 months, and whether one could expect him to serve a full term in good health. One wishes him the best, but it is an issue which will not go away.

All this, plus the fact that Joe Biden sometimes seems mentally lacking in alertness makes one worry if he also is truly capable of serving a full term, and either Biden or Sanders could have a health crisis after being nominated and during the fall campaign, and that would be devastating for the Democrats in their quest to retire the most corrupt and mentally unstable President in all of American history.

The facts are that Donald Trump has shown ability to overcome all detriments and shortcomings so far, but we cannot be certain that Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders can do the same.

And again, it brings up the idea that it would be better to have a new generation of leadership facing the future, rather than Trump, Biden or Sanders, all in their mid to late 70s or early 80s in the new decade of the 2020s!

The Issue Of Age Rears Its Ugly Head: Bernie Sanders’ Heart Issue, And Joe Biden’s Mental Health

An issue that has been hanging over the Democratic Party is the reality that two of the top candidates–former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders–would reach the age of 80 within two years or one year respectively of taking the oath as President.

Very few leaders of nations are ever in office in their 80s, and the pressure and stress of the job is such that one has to be concerned about the health effects on an octogenarian.

It is true that based on estimates by life insurance companies, a person in the late 70s might live up to ten years, but the burden of the Presidency is not the ordinary kind of life that people at that age usually have to deal with.

So it is perfectly fine for a person in the late 70s or higher to work, and even to be a member of Congress or the federal courts, but no job in government is quite like the Presidency.

So this author and blogger has problems and concerns about either Joe Biden, who he greatly admires and always has, and Bernie Sanders, someone he is not as enthusiastic about, facing the Presidency at their age.

It seems far better that someone much younger be the nominee and the next President, although Elizabeth Warren at age 71 at the time of the election does have the edge of seven to eight years on Biden and Sanders, although she would be a year older than Donald Trump when taking the oath office, so not ideal either.

Donald Trump Has Committed Treason, And Has Taken Mike Pence, William Barr, Mike Pompeo, Mick Mulvaney, And Rudy Giuliani Down With Him

The Ukraine Scandal is rapidly becoming the most significant scandal since Watergate under Richard Nixon 45 years ago.

It is clear that Donald Trump has committed treason by openly trying to engage the Ukraine government in exposing supposed scandals involving former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden, in exchange for military aid to Ukraine in its struggle with Russia and Vladimir Putin.

And Trump has thrown Vice President Mike Pence, Attorney General William Barr, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, and his personal attorney, former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani under the bus, implicating all of them in his actions involving Ukraine.

Trump wants the whistleblower in this scandal treated as a spy committing treason, and being executed.

In reality, Donald Trump is again projecting the situation, as it is he who has committed treason, and should be given the death penalty.

As it is, this situation has led to a majority of Democrats in the House of Representatives supportive of impeachment, and it is clear that will happen in the next few months, but with a decision to be made how broad or narrow such an impeachment resolution should be.