Democratic Party

Poll Numbers Of Responsible State Governors Of Both Parties Shows Most Americans Are Willing To Sacrifice

It is encouraging that the poll numbers of responsible state governors of both political parties are very high, while the poll numbers of reckless, irresponsible, crazy President Donald Trump are rapidly slipping.

Four Republican Governors are acting properly, including

Mike DeWine of Ohio

Larry Hogan of Maryland

Charlie Baker of Massachusetts

Phil Scott of Vermont

Many more Democratic Governors are also being responsible, including 14, among others

Andrew Cuomo of New York

Gavin Newsom of California

Jay Inslee of Washington

Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan

Jared Polis of Colorado

Ned Lamont of Connecticut

J. B. Pritzker of Illinois

Laura Kelly of Kansas

Tim Walz of Minnesota

Steve Bullock of Montana

Phil Murphy of New Jersey

Roy Cooper of North Carolina

Tom Wolf of Pennsylvania

Ralph Northam of Virginia

It is good to see that the vast majority of Americans are showing willingness to sacrifice for the safety and health of others, rather than just thinking about their own pleasures and desires.

Adults are supposed to think beyond their own whims and desires, as they are not children, who have to be taught responsibility.

Think of the massive sacrifices of Americans in World War II, and realize in 2020, there is a percentage of Americans who have no desire to sacrifice, showing how immature they are, and having no social concern, a real disgrace!

Donald Trump Has No Concern About The Economic Devastation He Has Wrought

Donald Trump is the most indecent and unconcerned President we have ever witnessed!

With 93 thousand people dead, and 36 million economically devastated by the CoronaVirus Pandemic, he has absolutely no concern about the economic devastation he has wrought, with his refusal to take any action to help those horribly damaged by the collapsed economy!

Not even everyone has gained or will gain the $1200 relief checks, as if that is enough to recover from their loss of businesses and jobs.

He and his Cabinet have no intention of doing more, while the Democrats have plans that are being rejected by Republican Senators, led by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

So the condition economically and health wise will continue to be worse for the next eight months until Inauguration Day, and when Joe Biden takes the oath of office, he will have the worst situation since Franklin D. Roosevelt almost 90 years ago.

And if, the horrible thought, somehow Donald Trump wins again, then the Great Depression we are in, will become worse and undermine our national security and economic welfare, almost as if Donald Trump is doing the bidding of America’s enemies, particularly Russia, China, and Iran.

It is impossible to imagine that America will give us another term of Donald Trump, similar to if they had given us another term of Herbert Hoover, who despite his major shortcomings, is still far superior to Donald Trump!

May 7, 1945 And May 7, 2020: The End Of One Crisis And The Growth Of The Worst Threat In 75 Years!

Seventy five years ago, World War II in Europe ended with the German surrender, although it was not officially announced to the world until the next day, which, coincidentally, was new President Harry Truman’s 61st birthday, only in office for 26 days, upon the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt on April 12, 1945.

It is true that the war against Japan did not end until after the atomic bomb was used in August 1945, with surrender of Japan on September 2, 1945. But the dire threat of Adolf Hitler was over on May 7, 1945.

Now, 75 years later, America is in the worst crisis since World War II, with 33 million people out of 155 million employed before the CoronaVirus Pandemic hit, now unemployed, and many losing their homes, having no food to eat, many in mortal health danger, and we have a President and administration sitting by and doing nothing, only interested in reelection.

And on this day, 75,000 Americans have died in about two months, more than the Vietnam War or the Korean War, and each day now, about as many are died on Pearl Harbor Day (December 7, 1941) or September 11, 2001!

Trump and his cronies in the Republican Party seem to live in an alternate world, where one can kick around the population and yet think they are going to be given power again, to do ever more damage to the American people.

The only way that Trump can be reelected is by foreign government collusion; state governments who promote illegal gerrymandering; and state government purging the voter rolls, promoting voter suppression by other tactics, including fewer voting locations and dates, and denying felons who have completed their debt to society the right to vote as in Florida and a few other states.

The Republicans know that they cannot win honestly, and that the future of their party is dim, but they will engage in any form of corruption to promote nativism, racism, Islamophobia, and gay bashing.

The Democrats have a massive job on their hands to insure a truly fair election, including voting by mail for those who wish to use that method of voting, for any reason!

The Alternative Vice Presidential Choices For Joe Biden, And The Likely 47th President In The Future

Former Vice President Joe Biden has formed a committee to consider 12 Vice Presidential potential choices, apparently all women, based on his pledge to select a female running mate.

While the list has not been made public, it would seem clear, subject to a surprise of course, that there would be five women at the top of the list.

They would include

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts

Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota

Senator Kamala Harris of California

Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan

Former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams of Georgia

Harris and Abrams are of minority background, with Harris having both Jamaican and Indian ancestry, so therefore multiracial from African and Asian heritage, while Abrams is African American.

So the question arises as to who would be the best choice to be Vice President, and potentially become the 47th President if Joe Biden is unable to finish his term as the 46th President.

The view of this blogger is that two choices should be eliminated immediately, not because they are not good people, but for other reasons.

The first is Elizabeth Warren, due to her age, only six and a half years younger than Joe Biden, making for the oldest Presidential ticket in American history, not a good idea. Also, the likelihood is that the Democrats could, at least temporarily, lose a Senate seat, with a Republican governor in Massachusetts, able to make an appointment, as occurred in 2009 when Scott Brown was appointed to replace Ted Kennedy, upon his death. The Democrats cannot afford to lose a seat in a state with a Republican Governor.

The second is Stacey Abrams, who simply does not have the experience to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency. It is true that the Georgia gubernatorial race of 2018 was corrupt, and that Abrams might have been the person who should have been inaugurated.

But that is theory, not reality, and then there is the issue that if Abrams had now been Governor of Georgia, with the CoronaVirus Pandemic raging, should a governor in the midst of the crisis be running for Vice President, and the answer is no!

This also brings Gretchen Whitmer under question, as she is Governor of a state, Michigan, which has had much more severe problems with the CoronaVirus Pandemic than even Georgia. Should she be taking on the campaign for Vice President when Michigan is in crisis?

She is already highly controversial, with the strong reaction in her state by some against her restrictions and quarantine she has imposed, rightfully, but still highly divisive. She served as Minority Leader of the State Senate, after first serving in the Michigan House, so has a similar background as Abrams, with a major difference being that she was successfully elected Governor in 2018.

Both Abrams and Whitmer lack long range national experience, and one wonders if a Governor is the best fit.

And for the Democrats, the Vice Presidential choice for a Presidential campaign has always been a member of the US Senate, except in 1972 and 1984, and both years, the Democrats lost 49 states!

So we come down to two choices—Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar.

Harris is 56 and Klobuchar is 60, and Harris’s seat in California is safely Democratic, as is Klobuchar’s seat in Minnesota, with both states having Democratic Governors who would appoint a Democrat to the seat, not true in Massachusetts.

The one advantage of Klobuchar is that she is from the Midwest, a battleground area, while California is insured to be Democratic.

Either one would be a fine choice to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency, and possibly become the 47th President of the United States!

The Potential Of Justin Amash To “Mess Up” The 2020 Presidential Election Is High

Michigan Congressman Justin Amash, elected as a Tea Party Congressman in the Republican “wave” of 2010, went on to a ten year career, including heading the “Liberty Caucus” and being a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, an extreme right wing group that warred against Speaker John Boehner and his successor, Paul Ryan.

Amash went on to vote for the impeachment of Donald Trump in 2019, and to leave the Republican Party, and now he is an announced candidate for the Libertarian Party Presidential nomination.

Considering that Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party nominee received about 3.3 percent of the popular vote and 4.5 million votes in 2016, it is a concern whether Amash could perform at the same level in 2020, and whether it would harm Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the election.

Amash is complicated, as he supports the following that could bring over disaffected Democrats who wanted Bernie Sanders:

He voted against religious institutions being eligible for FEMA grants.

He supported gay marriage being left alone after the Supreme Court ruled in favor in 2015.

He has stated his opposition to political gerrymandering.

He voted against the reauthorization of the Patriot Act in 2011.

He voted against the Trump executive order banning migrating of people from seven majority Muslim nations.

He has stated his support of transgender American rights.

He has opposed building a Mexico Wall.

He has refused to support Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) without agreement that there have been abuses that need to be addressed, while believing in the basic mission of ICE.

He has opposed US support of Saudi Arabia in its war against Yemen.

He has voted against any war against Iran by executive decision, only if Congress agreed by majority vote of both houses of Congress.

And of course, he has been a consistent critic of Donald Trump from the beginning.

So, while Amash is a big Trump critic, he could get disaffected Democrats who are not thrilled with Joe Biden, to vote for him, and that could be a decisive factor in his home state of Michigan and other “swing’ states!

The House Of Representatives Likely To Be More “Blue” In 117th Congress

Six months out, it seems highly likely that the House of Representatives, which turned Democratic in the 2018 midterm elections, will be more heavily “Blue”.

The present House balance is 233 Democrats to 196 Republicans, and Independent Justin Amash of Michigan, who left the Republican Party in 2019, and voted for the impeachment of Donald Trump.

There are, presently, six vacant House seats, but four of them being filled soon, and the likelihood is that the two Democratic seats and two Republican seats will remain the same. Two other Republican seats have a vacancy that will not be filled until the November 2020 election.

But if one counts all six vacant House seats, the real balance is 235 Democrats and 200 Republicans, as Justin Amash is leaving Congress as the only Libertarian member. So effectively, the balance is what it was after Election Day in November 2018. Republicans would need a net gain of 18 seats to come back to the majority, and no polls show that happening.

More women and minorities were elected as Democrats than ever before in the House of Representatives, while the Republicans remain mostly white men.

There were big gains, a total of 41 new members of the Democratic majority, and California, the largest delegation, dropped to only 7 Republicans.

The Democrats had their biggest victory since 1974, and won the popular vote by 8.6 percent, an all time high for a party that had been in the minority previously. More than half the population voted, the highest percentage in a midterm election since 1914.

Besides California’s loss of 7 Republican seat, the following states lost multiple GOP seats:

Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Texas–2 seats each

New York, Virginia–3 seats each

New Jersey, Pennsylvania–4 seats each

21 states, altogether, lost 42 Republican seats, and it now seems likely that Democrats will gain more seats in Florida, Illinois, Texas, New York, Virginia, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, with the estimate being at least 10 more seats, leading to a possible majority as high as 245-190, after a few likely Republican gains.

Six Months Out Projection On US Senate: A Democratic Majority

Having projected the Presidential Election of 2020 yesterday, today I will project, six months out, subject to change as we get closer to the election, the likely Senate balance in 2021-2022.

It seems very likely at this point that the Democrats will win the majority of the US Senate, and kick out Mitch McConnell as Majority Leader.

And I think the odds of Kentucky defeating McConnell for reelection are growing.

So let us look at state by state for the Senate in the 2020 election cycle.

There will be 12 Democratic held seats and 23 Republican held seats up for election.

This insures that the Democrats will gain seats, and it would seem highly likely that they will gain at least 3 seats, enough for control if Joe Biden wins the Presidency, as his female Vice President would be able to organize the Senate, and break any potential tie votes.

Much more likely is that the Democrats might gain up to 7 additional seats, by winning 8 races, but likely losing Doug Jones in Alabama, but that loss is certainly not an automatic result so the total number of Democrats could go to 53-55 as a maximum.

Other than Doug Jones, who has proved to be an inspiration that Alabama has potential for growth, the other 11 Democratic seats seem safe.

Tom Udall is leaving his New Mexico Senate seat, but it seems safely Democratic, as does Ed Markey’s seat in Massachusetts, although he might lose the Senate primary to Joe Kennedy III, but the seat will stay Democratic.

Turning to the Republicans, the following 11 seats seem safe:

Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming, although Lamar Alexander in Tennessee and Mike Enzi in Wyoming are leaving office, but still both of those states seem safe for Republicans.

So that leave 11 seats safe, but the other 12 unpredictable.

Most likely to go Democratic are in likeliness to occur:

Martha McSally seat in Arizona

Cory Gardner seat in Colorado

Kelly Loeffler seat in Georgia

Susan Collins seat in Maine

Steve Daines seat in Montana

Thom Tillis seat in North Carolina

Less likely to switch parties are in likelihood of occurring:

Joni Ernst seat in Iowa

Pat Roberts (retiring) seat in Kansas

David Perdue seat in Georgia

John Cornyn seat in Texas

Lindsey Graham seat in South Carolina

Mitch McConnell seat in Kentucky

My judgment is that one of those last six seats, likely Iowa, will also go Democratic, which means a gain of 7 seats to 54 or 53 if Doug Jones loses his seat.

But also, Kansas and Georgia (David Perdue) could surprise, and we can hope for a “miracle” that the two most despicable of a horrible group of Republicans, Graham or McConnell, might actually be defeated, along with Cornyn.

So in the best of all worlds, which would be a dream, imagine if the Republicans lost all 12 seats in contention, and did not defeat Doug Jones in Alabama, and we would have the grand total of 59 seats!

But reality sets in, and expect 53-55 seats for the Democrats, subject to changing dynamics, so we will look at this again in October.

Six Months To The Presidential Election Of 2020: A First Assessment

With six months and three days until the Presidential Election of 2020, it is time to make a first assessment of the upcoming election.

This author has just published an article on History News Network under my blog “Ronald L Feinman” stating that this upcoming election is the most important since 1940, and one of the five most significant elections in American history, along with 1860, 1864, 1932, and 1940.

Donald Trump is reported going totally off the rails on this, the 75th anniversary of the suicide of Adolf Hitler, and it gets one to think about what may yet happen, as Trump is falling behind Joe Biden in every imaginable poll nationally, and in the “swing” states, including the crucial state of Florida with its 29 electoral votes.

If Trump loses Florida, where many senior citizens retire and are dying in the midst of this CoronaVirus Pandemic, there is no practical way for him to win reelection.

With the pandemic which he is refusing to deal with rationally, only thinking about his election, and willing to endanger any crowd that might gather in Arizona or Ohio in coming weeks, and also wanting children back in school even if it undermines and threatens the lives of their parents and grandparents, Trump is clearly on the road to a massive defeat in November!

So, subject to change, here is my assessment of the upcoming election:

Joe Biden will win the 20 states that Hillary Clinton won:

All 6 New England states and add the second district of Maine, which went to Trump in 2016–33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic States of New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia, plus Virginia–72 electoral votes

Midwest States of Illinois and Minnesota–30 electoral votes

Mountain States of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada–20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast States of California, Oregon, Washington State, and Hawaii–78 electoral votes

So the “base”, adding the second district of Maine to the total, is 233 electoral votes of 270 needed.

Adding to that are the crucial states that Hillary Clinton lost in the Midwest—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (really considered more Northeast but also considered in western section as Midwest)—46

That brings the electoral vote total to 279, enough to win the Presidency for Joe Biden.

However, the trend is strongly in favor of other states turning “Blue”, with the Second Great Depression upon us, along with the CoronaVirus Pandemic, and the reality that Trump policies have alienated many groups:

Senior Citizens

Suburban Women

College Educated

Lower and Middle Income Voters

Racial Minorities (African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans)

Jews, Social Justice Catholics, Mainline Protestants

Young People Under 35

Independents

Moderate Republicans

Conservative Intellectuals

Of course, one is not saying that all of these groups will vote “Blue”, but it seems highly likely enough will vote that way and cause a smashing defeat for Donald Trump!

So what other states seem likely to go Democratic, in some cases, by small margins?

In order as follows:

Arizona–11 electoral votes

North Carolina–15 electoral votes

Florida–29 electoral votes

Nebraska–2nd Congressional District–1 electoral vote

Ohio–18 electoral votes

Georgia–16 electoral votes

Iowa–6 electoral votes

Montana–3 electoral votes

Kansas–6 electoral votes

Texas–38 electoral votes

So my estimate at this time, six months before the election, is a maximum of 32 states and DC for Biden and 18 for Trump, and 422 electoral votes to 116 for Trump.

The 116 electoral votes for Trump in 18 states would be:

West Virginia 5

Kentucky 8

South Carolina 9

Alabama 9

Mississippi 6

Louisiana 8

Arkansas 6

Tennessee 11

Missouri 10

Indiana 11

North Dakota 3

South Dakota 3

Nebraska 4 (not including 2nd District)

Oklahoma 7

Utah 6

Wyoming 3

Idaho 4

Alaska 3

But actually, Missouri (10) and Indiana (11) could, by earlier history, surprise, and also vote against Trump and support Biden by small margins, meaning there could be 34 states and a grand total of 443 to 95 in the Electoral College for the Democrats!

Remember that Indiana voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and Missouri was always with the winner since 1900, except in 1956, 2008 (both by small margins of about 4,000 votes) and 2012 when the margin was larger for the defeated candidate, Mitt Romney!

So the exact parameters of the Donald Trump defeat are not final, but this would seem to be the maximum, as another nearly 4 million Americans today filed for unemployment, a total of about 30 million, one out of five workers in the nation, approximately, which would mean a 20 percent unemployment rate, and growing.

If it goes over 25 percent in coming weeks, it will be worse than even the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the American people soundly defeated Herbert Hoover in 1932, and elected Franklin D. Roosevelt!

And realize that the average family size can be considered probably a family of four although there are many households of fewer than four, but if one considers that as a statistic, that means one out of three people directly are affected by unemployment, an astounding 33-35 percent rate, unimaginable and horrific!

The next President will have a challenge on the level of FDR and Abraham Lincoln!


Momentous Anniversaries: Holocaust Remembrance Day And Earth Day!

Yesterday, April 21, was the 71st anniversary of Holocaust Remembrance Day (Yom HaShoah), first declared in 1949, but a commemoration of the massive loss of Jewish life in the Nazi Holocaust before and during World War II.

And today, April 22, is the 50th Anniversary of Earth Day, first declared by Wisconsin Democratic Senator Gaylord Nelson, but affirmed by President Richard Nixon in 1970.

Both commemorations are crucial, to prevent future horrific events as the former, and come to grips with the reality of climate change and global warming as the latter, particularly now with the record that we have had the hottest months in recorded time of the entire planet in the last decade.

Many think the CoronaVirus Pandemic is a warning sign of the future, and of the need for radical action, which has been prevented by the Republican Party, Donald Trump, and climate change deniers, the same people who do not accept the Darwin evolution doctrine.

Ironically, there is the Darwin award, which is daily being demonstrated, regarding the cluelessness and stupidity of some Americans, many of whom doubt that the Holocaust occurred, as with the doubt that the planet is in a danger zone from use of oil and coal as major energy sources.

Biden Leads Most United Party Since 2012, And Gains Republicans And Conservatives Who See Trump As Existential Threat To Nation And World

Former Vice President Joe Biden is now, officially, the Democratic Presidential nominee, with the announced withdrawal of Bernie Sanders.

But Trump supporters and far left whackos are attacking him as having mental issues that make him incompetent to be President.

Has anyone paid attention lately to the mental incompetence of Donald Trump?

Yes, Joe Biden has some lapses at times, but he is backed up by a wife who has a brain and commitment, unlike Melania Trump!

He will do just fine in the Oval Office, by having top advisers who have principles and beliefs that are far different than the crooked, corrupt, incompetent people around Donald Trump.

He will have a top notch Vice Presidential running mate, who if necessity requires it, will be fully competent and qualified to take over the Presidency, much more so than religious extremist and right winger Mike Pence!

No one expects perfection, but Joe Biden leads a united Democratic Party, more than it has been since 2012, and many Republicans and conservatives, including those in the Lincoln Project, are fully backing him, as will many Independents.

Donald Trump is clearly seen as an existential threat to the nation and the world, and the thought that he might win a second term is horrifying!