Thom Tillis North Carolina

US Senate In Great Flux As Fall Elections Arrive!

The United States Senate is in great flux as the Midterm Elections of 2026 arrive in less than four months.

Turnover will be massive:

11 Senators are retiring.

2 Senators have been defeated for renomination.

1 Senator (Lindsey Graham) just passed away.

Seven other Senators running for reelection face the possibility of losing their seat, 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats.

Dan Sullivan in Alaska (R)
Ashley Moody in Florida (R)
Jon Ossoff in Georgia (D)
Susan Collins in Maine (R)
Ed Markey in Massachusetts (D)
Pete Ricketts in Nebraska (R)
Jon Husted in Ohio (R)

Additionally, with Republican Senator Mitch McConnell still in recovery from a fall and a bout with pneumonia, and with Lindsey Graham’s passing creating a void on key Senate committees, plus the opposition of several Republican Senators to some Donald Trump agenda items, it is unlikely that what the White House wants will occur in the three and a half months until the midterms.

Senators John Cornyn of Texas, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky when he returns to the Senate, are all “wild cards” that make major actions unlikely.

Also, the fact of Lindsey Graham’s death opens up the possibility that his South Carolina Senate seat might be a possible gain for Democratic nominee Dr. Annie Andrews.

Congressional Republicans’ Support Of Trump Splintering

The sycophancy of Congressional Republicans, particularly Senate Republicans, toward Donald Trump is showing signs of splintering on a number of matters, further endangering the party as the Midterm Elections of 2026 come upon us in a little over five months.

Trump’s insistence of total loyalty of party members is wearing thin, as he alienated many by working against the renomination of Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy; endorsed Ken Paxton over Senator John Cornyn for the Texas Senate nomination that will be decided next week; and most divisive, his plan to set up a 1.776 Billion Compensation Fund, also termed the “Anti Weaponization Fund”, for so called victims of government “mistreatment”, including the January 6, 2021 US Capitol Insurrectionists, who went to prison for their crimes, before being pardoned by Trump on Day One of his second term.

The willingness of many Republican Senators to be openly critical of the idea of paying insurrectionists and convicted criminals compensation, often in the millions of dollars, was made evident after a tumultuous two hour meeting with Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. Among those who were outraged were Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, Maine Senator Susan Collins, Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell, North Carolina, Senator Thom Tillis, Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy, and Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson.

But also there are opponents of the proposed White House Ballroom; the proposed Triumphal Arch; and other spending on vanity projects that Trump has promoted.

With Trump’s public approval ratings reaching an all time low, and with the Iran War continuing without any end in sight, and the abuses of ICE and other government agencies and the horrors of so many Trump government officials, we are finally seeing a disintegration of party support for Trump.

The question is however how far will the revolt against Trump develop over the next months until November, and beyond.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul Courageously Critical Of Trump Domestic And Foreign Policies

Anyone who has read my blog over the past 17 plus year since August 2008 know I am not a fan of Kentucky Republican Senator Rand Paul.

His father, former Congressman Ron Paul, was also not someone I would endorse.

Both Pauls were and are “libertarians”, which is a viewpoint I totally disagree with on principle.

When Rand Paul contended for the Presidency in 2016, it was made clear by this author and blogger that the thought of him in the White House was horrifying.

However, in the present, Rand Paul has taken stands that this author and blogger can agree with.

Paul has been a critic of the invasion and overthrow of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, particularly in regard to the Trump Administration and Secretary of State Marco Rubio not informing Congress under the War Powers Act of 1973.

Also, Paul has been a critic of the tactics and actions of ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement), and has been concerned about the damage to civil liberties and the Bill of Rights. He is calling for testimony before the Senate Homeland Security Committee, for which he is the Chairman, by the heads of ICE and Customs and Border Protection, in February, in the light of the murder of Alex Pretti and Rene Good in Minneapolis in January.

Paul has been willing to go against Donald Trump openly, more than almost any other Republican Senator, except for Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski and soon retiring North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis.

So as a Senator with true beliefs, and an element of courage, it is appropriate that Rand Paul be saluted for behaving in a proper, principled manner on these issues, while this author and blogger reserves the right to be critical of Paul on other matters.

Four Potential Senate Gains For Democrats In 2026

Beyond Alaska and Maine, and long odds Iowa, there are four other Republican Senate seats that are in play in the Midterm Elections of 2026.

Nebraska has Republican Pete Ricketts, former two term Governor, and part owner of the Chicago Cubs baseball team, running for a full term, after succeeding the retired Senator Ben Sasse in 2023. Ricketts has a conservative record, and will NOT have a Democratic opponent, but interestingly, he will have an Independent opponent, Dan Osborn, who polled well against Senator Deb Fischer in 2024, losing by only 6 points, amazing result, with no formal backing by Democrats.

A former labor union leader and US Navy veteran, he is running again with a populist platform, appealing to the middle and working class, and he is seen as intriguing, with a possible chance to win.

North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis is not seeking reelection, and former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is the favorite to win the seat over Republican Michael Whatley, former North Carolina Republican Chairman, and also Republican National Chairman in 2024-2025.

Cooper was an exceptional governor in a state where the opposition Republicans often controlled the legislature, but he gained a reputation for principled leadership, and had a background as four term State Attorney General before his two terms as Governor. There is real optimism that Cooper can swing this state to the Democratic camp, with Cooper ahead in public opinion polls.

Ohio also is a state that Democrats are optimistic will swing their way in the Senate race, with former Senator Sherrod Brown, who served three terms, but lost his seat in 2024, trying for a comeback against appointed Senator Jon Husted, former Lieutenant Governor, who replaced Vice President JD Vance, when he was elected Vice President to Donald Trump in the Presidential Election of 2024.

Brown was considered one of the most liberal members of the Senate, and earlier had served in the House of Representatives and in the state legislature. Husted has been strongly conservative, and served as Secretary of State of Ohio before becoming Lieutenant Governor. It will be a tough race, but Democrats are hopeful that Brown can return to the Senate in the upcoming election. Polls indicate a very close race between Brown and Husted.

Finally, the crucial state of Texas, strongly Republican in recent decades, but having a three way primary in the Republican Party, of incumbent Senator John Cornyn, State Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Congressman Wesley Hunt.

Cornyn has been in the Senate for four terms, but is facing a serious challenge from the controversial and crooked Paxton, and African American Congressman Hunt. Cornyn has more support from the party and funding, but Paxton in particular could possibly upend the race, although his corruption is a significant issue, as he was impeached, although not convicted by the Texas legislature. Polls show an extremely close race for the nomination, with African American Congressman Hunt seen as a wild card.

The Democrats have an even more exciting race of outspoken African American Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, and State Representative James Talarico. Either candidate would be an exciting addition to the Senate, with Crockett more controversial and outspoken, while Talarico brings a soothing brand of noncontroversial Christianity and idealism to the race. Talarico would be the youngest US Senator if he won the seat. There is something very inspiring to this author and blogger about Talarico, particularly.

There will be plenty of “fireworks” in Texas, with the state primaries coming in March. And were Crockett or Talarico to win the seat in November, almost certainly, the Senate would become a Democratic majority for the 120th Congress (2027-2029).

Are There Enough GOP Votes To Kill “Big And Beautiful Bill” Attack On Medicaid?

It is still possible that a few Republican Senators and or Republican House members could kill the “Big and Beautiful Bill” of Donald Trump, and in the process, save Medicaid!

ALready, North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul have made it clear that they will not support the legislation, Tillis because of the Medicaid cuts that would affect so many North Carolinians, and Paul, because he does not want to add trillions to the National Debt, already 36 Trillion!

But what about Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski and Maine Senator Susan Collins, who have both expressed dismay at the Medicaid cuts, that would hurt so many of their constituents?

And also, similar thoughts have been expressed by Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, and also, to some extent, Kansas Senator Jerry Moran.

In the House of Representatives, with Nebraska Congressman Don Bacon deciding not to run again for his Omaha seat, and already seen as the most moderate, centrist Republican who might refuse to support such legislation, since his seat was won by Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024, there could be another vote.

California Congressman David Valadao has also spoken out against Medicaid cuts, and is one of two Republican Congressmen to have voted to impeach Donald Trump in the second impeachment effort following the January 6, 2021 US Capitol Insurrection.

Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie and Ohio Congressman Warren Davidson haver voted against the House bill already, and New York Congressman Nick LaLota, Maryland Congressman Andy Harris, and Texas Congressman Chip Roy all have different reservations.

Also, the members of the Republican House Freedom Caucus are not guaranteed in any sense to support the complicated legislation.

This horror of a bill will do such heavy damage to the American people at large, while the corporations and Billionaires will gain major tax cuts that will add many trillions to the national debt.

It is a repudiation of much of the mid 20th century “Great Society” of President Lyndon B. Johnson, a totally horrendous attack on common decency and compassion for those among us less fortunate!

Elizabeth MacDonough, Senate Parliamentarian, A Light In The Darkness!

Elizabeth MacDonough has been the nonpartisan Senate Parliamentarian for the past 13 years since 2012.

She has a high level of respect and regard by most members of the Senate, and has been seen as the “guardian” of Senate rules, who does what is best for the Senate and its reputation. This is true even when some disgraceful Senators, like presently Alabama Senator Tommy Tuberville, have called for her to be fired for refusing to back all of the demands of Donald Trump.

She has presided over periods of Democratic and of Republican party majorities, and been part of the institutional history of the upper chamber in a very distinguished manner.

MacDonough has enforced the so called “Byrd Rule”, named after the late Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia, which allows elimination of “extraneous” proposals that interfere with reconciliation of provisions of legislation, with 60 votes needed to overrule the Senate Parliamentarian, a high barrier.

It seems likely that Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota will not listen to a few Senators who want her fired, as she is well respected, and Thune is reluctant to interfere with her nonpartisan approach to Senate rules.

Already, with North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, opposed to aspects of the House bill, it is possible that the Trump “Big And Beautiful” bill might fail to get past the Senate, if on final passage, other Senators, such as Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, and Josh Hawley of Missouri, vote to reject the legislation as it is constituted right now, particularly regarding Medicaid cuts.

US Senate Should NOT Give Trump Recess Appointments For Cabinet Choices!

Donald Trump is clearly attempting to grab power from the US Senate in his move to make recess appointments to his Cabinet, bypassing the power of the Senate “to advise and consent”.

The idea of recess appointments has always been rarely utilized, and for Trump to just go ahead and pick his advisers, and ignore the Senate, is alarming.

One has to hope that enough Republicans are willing to challenge Trump, and prevent what would be the gaining of a new absolute power of Trump, and potentially, future Presidents, making the Senate a weakened legislative body.

There may be 53 Republican Senators, but if four of them resist Trump, they, hopefully, could stop this dangerous power grab.

Potential such Senators would likely include:

Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska
Senator Susan Collins of Maine
Senator Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia
Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana
Senaator Thom Tillis of North Carolina
Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma

If the Senate allows Trump to do what he wants, and allows Billionaire Elon Musk to have a major power over Trump policies as well, without any resistance, it will be a massive step toward what Trump had called “Dictatorship on Day One”!

This is a battle for survival of American democracy, and no patriotic American can sit on the sidelines, and they must pressure the Senate and others on Capitol Hill to fight and resist in every way possible!