New York Times

Political Prognostication: Nate Silver Vs. Michael Barone–Exact Same Electoral Vote Predicted For Obama And Romney!

Ronald 3 Comments

Anyone who studies and follows American politics knows the names of Nate Silver, who writes the 538 blog for the New York Times, and Michael Barone, who is a conservative pundit for Fox News Channel, and the principal author of the authoritative work, THE ALMANAC OF AMERICAN POLITICS.

The two men totally disagree on the results of today’s Presidential election, so much so that it is disturbing, because, obviously, one is totally wrong!

Silver is 34 years old, considered a political genius by many, and correctly predicted the Presidential Election Of 2008 and every Senate race, and uses statistical methods to decide what is going on politically, and his last assessment last night was that Barack Obama had a 91.6 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, with a margin of 315-223.

Michael Barone, who is twice Silver’s age (68), and whose publication mentioned above has been regarded as the best single volume book every two years on the Presidential election, Congressional elections, and state gubernatorial elections–a literal gold mine of information on the 50 states and the national government— and a series that the author has had since the first publication forty years ago in 1972, says Mitt Romney will win the Electoral College by 315-223.

Notice that–the EXACT same electoral vote total–one by a man half the age of the second man—and both considered “experts”!

How can both be correct? The answer is that they cannot both be correct, so besides the results tonight and tomorrow morning, we are witnessing the battle of the “Experts”–and it will be interesting to see whether Silver or Barone is correct!

512 Paths To White House For Barack Obama; 76 Paths To White House For Mitt Romney

Ronald 5 Comments

The New York Times and Nate Silver today list 512 Paths to the White House for Barack Obama, and 76 Paths to the White House for Mitt Romney in graph form, using different combinations of “swing” or “battleground” states to demonstrate the various paths.

Leave it to Nate SIlver, the most brilliant political statistician in America, who continues to say that Obama has an 85 percent chance of winning a second term, while Romney has a 15 percent chance of winning the White House.

Ultimately, in about 36-48 hours, we should know whether Nate Silver remains the “genius”, or is indeed a “paper tiger”!

Bet on Nate Silver would be this author’s advice!

Nate Silver Convincing That Barack Obama Will Be Reelected President On Tuesday

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Nate Silver, the most legitimate prognosticator on the American political scene, who writes for the NY TIMES, has upped the ante on the reelection of Barack Obama to the White House with his declaration that the odds for Obama have been raised to 85 percent, based on 19 of 22 polls in the “swing states” in the past few days, showing him ahead.

Silver has always put Obama in the lead, but now, after Hurricane Sandy, his odds of winning have gone up.

So despite the Gallup and Rasmussen polls that show a near deadlock, Silver claims that Mitt Romney winning is a real gamble, and would not be worth a bet, unless one is prepared to lose a large amount of money!

We all know about the Gallup polls of 1948, which were totally wrong, but this is NOT 1948, and the thought is that the Gallup and Rasmussen polls are wrong, and that Nate Silver and the polls that show Obama winning are correct.

This author has always believed that Obama would win, based on his record, and the multiple faults and weaknesses of Mitt Romney and his campaign.

In about 60 hours, we shall know!

The Theoretical Possibility Of A Romney-Biden White House

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IF by some chance, the electoral vote would be evenly divided 269-269, the House of Representatives, likely to have more states with a Republican majority delegation, would then get to choose the President, as they did in 1800 and 1824, and would then choose Mitt Romney, their party’s nominee.

But if the Democrats continued to control the US Senate, then Vice President Joe Biden would be likely to be chosen, and we would have a split White House, which we only had after the 1796 election, when Thomas Jefferson was the opponent of John Adams, and ended up as his unhappy Vice President, and then defeated him in a tumultuous election in 1800.

The 12th Amendment in 1804 was supposed to prevent such an eventuality again, but it is possible, but highly unlikely, that such a scenario could happen.

This would be bad for America, as certainly Romney and Biden would not get along, and it is well known that Biden has ambitions to run for President in 2016, and would likely oppose President Romney on every issue imaginable, as they might be opponents in 2016, when Romney would run for reelection.

It is interesting to think about this, but no one should worry, as the odds of a tie of 269-269 is highly remote, and every indication from the “swing states” and Nate Silver in the NY Times is that Barack Obama will win the Electoral College without any problem, and win most of the contested states, as many other polls also indicate!

Ohio Remains Strongly For Barack Obama With Six Days To Go To Presidential Election

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Ohio, the state that EVERY Republican President has won from Abraham Lincoln to George W. Bush, remains strongly behind Barack Obama, with six days to go to the Presidential Election of 2012.

It seems as if Mitt Romney may be gaining in other “swing states”, according to some polls, although others show otherwise, but without Ohio, Romney would have to win all of the rest of those states to pull out a victory, and despite the Gallup national poll, which shows Romney ahead, the Nate Silver–NY Times model seems more likely the final result.

And if Obama wins Ohio and the election, the likely major reason will be because Obama saved the auto industry in Ohio and the Midwest, while Romney, despite his father’s involvement in the industry, will willing to allow it to die, and take with it, million of jobs, including ancillary industries.

Gallup Vs. Nate Silver: Who Is Reliable In Prediction Of Presidential Race?

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Here we are a week out from the election, and the public opinion polls and prognosticators are driving everyone nuts, with contradictory views and statistics as to whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will be elected next week.

The Gallup polls have projected Romney as ahead by five points in some polls, and other polls have shown a tight race, almost even.

Meanwhile, Nate Silver of the NY TIMES, considered the master of political polling science, says that Barack Obama has about a 73 percent chance of winning, particularly in regard to the “swing states”, showing him ahead in all but North Carolina and Florida, and a tossup in Colorado and Virginia.

But leaving North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Virginia out of the mix for Obama, that still means he is favored in New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin and Nevada, and will win 295 electoral votes, 24 more than is needed to win the Presidency.

So this leaves us in a quandary!

Who do we trust or believe in? Nate Silver or the Gallup Polls, or other polls?

Remember, the Gallup polls were totally wrong in 1948, predicting a victory for Thomas E. Dewey over Harry Truman!

But, of course, that was 64 years ago, a long time, with much improvement and proof of reliability of Gallup much of the time!

On the other hand, the last time we had such a stiff, awkward, hard to relate to, Governor of a Northeastern state who had been born in Michigan, before Mitt Romney was, indeed, Dewey in 1948!

Hmmm, that is food for thought!

Newspaper Endorsements For Barack Obama Smack At Mitt Romney In An Embarrassing Manner!

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Many people might say that newspaper editorial board endorsements do not matter very much in the modern age, but still it is impressive that Barack Obama is gathering newspaper endorsements in places that are embarrassing to Mitt Romney.

The Tampa Bay Tribune, in the city where the Republican National Convention was held, endorsed Obama.

The Denver Post, in the city where the first Presidential debate was held, endorsed Obama.

The Salt Lake City Tribune, in the city and state of the Mormon establishment and the Mormon temple, turned against a person who is a leader of their faith, and endorsed Obama.

Additionally, it is quite apparent that other major newspapers, more significant than those mentioned above—including the NY Times, Washington Post, Boston Globe, and Los Angeles Times—will endorse Obama, and the Philadelphia Inquirer already has done so.

Sure, Mitt Romney has won some endorsements and will gain more, but it seems clear that the majority of newspapers, and the most prestigious and influential ones, will be backing Barack Obama.

Significant food for thought, one might say!

A Day To Celebrate! New York Times At 161 Years And Counting!

Ronald 2 Comments

The best newspaper in America, the one no scholar or serious student can do without, became 161 years old today!

The New York Times is often under attack by conservatives because it dares to investigate, to question, to challenge the views of the Right.

But it is still the most respected news source, the most thorough one, the one that can be counted upon to examine all sides of any domestic or foreign policy controversy.

And its Week in Review, its Magazine, its Book Review, its Entertainment section, its Business Section, are unmatched by any other Sunday newspaper.

The New York Times has adapted well to the digital age, and all readers and researchers on public affairs owe a debt to the New York Times, with its fantastic Annual Index, which makes investigation of any topic manageable!

So Happy 161st Birthday to the newspaper with “All The News That’s Fit To Print!”

Nobel Prize Winner Paul Krugman And The American “Depression” Solution: An Activist Government!

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Paul Krugman, the winner of the Nobel Economics Prize, columnist for the New York Times, and Professor at Princeton University, has written a new book about how to deal with the American “Depression”, as he calls the Great Recession.

Just suggesting that we are going through a depression is a stunning statement, but Krugman, despite attacks from conservatives, Republicans, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul and his libertarian views, is correct in stating that austerity, being pursued in Great Britain and elsewhere in Europe in a way that has led to a worsening economic condition throughout the continent, is absolutely the wrong thing to do at this time.

The time for cutting spending is when there is a booming economy, not an economy with millions of people unemployed, and attempts being made to cut back the social safety net for desperate people. As Krugman writes, it is John Maynard Keynes, whose ideas helped Franklin D. Roosevelt during the Great Depression, who needs to be followed today.

After all, even Richard Nixon said he was a Keynesian when he decided to impose wage and price controls in the 1970s, and it was Keynesian ideas that helped Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan during the two worse economic downturns in the 1970s and 1980s since the end of the Great Depression until those time periods!

So Krugman advocates much more government intervention and spending than Barack Obama was able to get through Congress in 2009, and argues that had more been done then and since, our economic condition would be far better than it is now.

There may be skeptics, and certainly Ron Paul supporters live in their own parallel universe, but Paul Krugman needs to be listened to, and followed, hopefully, by a Democratic controlled Congress in 2013 and after!

The Intellectual Prowess Of MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow, Melissa Harris-Perry, And Chris Hayes

Ronald 1 Comment

MSNBC may not have a very large audience base, as compared to Fox News Channel, but that is not the only way to judge media.

After all, the New York Times has lower readership than the New York Daily News, for instance, but that does not make the Daily News a newspaper of quality, and the same goes for cable television news.

Quality and intellectual challenge are what makes journalism outstanding, and in that regard, Fox News Channel is no comparison to MSNBC.

And the author is not referring here to the traditional talk show hosts–the Reverend Al Sharpton, Chris Matthews, Ed Schultz, and Lawrence O’Donnell in the weekday evenings, although all are enlightening.

And he is not referring to Morning Joe, or Chuck Todd, Andrea Mitchell, Martin Bashir, Dylan Ratigan, Alex Wagner, or others on the weekday daytime, all of whom are great, but not what he wishes to emphasize.

Rather, the author is referring to three true intellectuals, Rachel Maddow, on at 9 pm eastern time during the week, and Melissa Harris-Perry and Chris Hayes, on for two hours each on both Saturday and Sunday.

Rachel Maddow, 39 years of age, has degrees from Stanford University and Oxford University, an earned doctorate, and was the recipient of a Rhodes Scholarship. Anyone who watches her or reads her new book, DRIFT, cannot help but be impressed with her pure intellectual brilliance. She is also a delight on a personal level, with a great sense of humor!

Melissa Harris-Perry, 38 years of age, is an African American professor of Political Science at Tulane University, and formerly taught at Princeton University and the University of Chicago, earned a Ph. D. at Duke University, and is the author of two books. Her two hour show on both Saturday and Sunday is extremely enlightening, and her pleasant personality comes through on a consistent basis!

Chris Hayes, 33 years old, is married to Kate Shaw, an Associate Counsel for President Barack Obama, is an editor at large of The Nation magazine, and has a show called Up With Chris Hayes for two hours each on Saturdays and Sundays. Sometimes called the male Rachel Maddow, Hayes comes across as an intellectual on the level of Maddow and Harris-Perry, and he possesses a bachelor’s degree from Brown University.

His show, as with Maddow and Harris-Perry, is extremely enlightening and stimulating to viewers who appreciate good intellectual discourse! His book Twilight Of The Elites: America After Meritocracy, will be published in June, 2012.

Anyone who reads this blog should make it a habit to watch these three brilliant talk show hosts–Rachel Maddow, Melissa Harris-Perry, and Chris Hayes!