538 Blog

Political Prognostication: Nate Silver Vs. Michael Barone–Exact Same Electoral Vote Predicted For Obama And Romney!

Anyone who studies and follows American politics knows the names of Nate Silver, who writes the 538 blog for the New York Times, and Michael Barone, who is a conservative pundit for Fox News Channel, and the principal author of the authoritative work, THE ALMANAC OF AMERICAN POLITICS.

The two men totally disagree on the results of today’s Presidential election, so much so that it is disturbing, because, obviously, one is totally wrong!

Silver is 34 years old, considered a political genius by many, and correctly predicted the Presidential Election Of 2008 and every Senate race, and uses statistical methods to decide what is going on politically, and his last assessment last night was that Barack Obama had a 91.6 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, with a margin of 315-223.

Michael Barone, who is twice Silver’s age (68), and whose publication mentioned above has been regarded as the best single volume book every two years on the Presidential election, Congressional elections, and state gubernatorial elections–a literal gold mine of information on the 50 states and the national government— and a series that the author has had since the first publication forty years ago in 1972, says Mitt Romney will win the Electoral College by 315-223.

Notice that–the EXACT same electoral vote total–one by a man half the age of the second man—and both considered “experts”!

How can both be correct? The answer is that they cannot both be correct, so besides the results tonight and tomorrow morning, we are witnessing the battle of the “Experts”–and it will be interesting to see whether Silver or Barone is correct!