Missouri

“Swing” States Down To Eight, Narrowing Romney Chances Of Winning Presidency!

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The Mitt Romney Presidential campaign has decided to buy advertising time on television in only eight states, narrowing the chance that the former Massachusetts Governor can win the Presidency.

Eliminated as places of opportunity are Michigan, the birthplace and childhood of Romney, and the state that his father was Governor in the 1960s; Wisconsin, the birthplace and home of his running mate, Paul Ryan; and Pennsylvania, despite the well known white male battleground of western Pennsylvania, often thought to be an Achilles Heel for Barack Obama!

So what are the states still in play?

New Hampshire–4 electoral votes
Virginia–13 electoral votes
North Carolina–15 electoral votes
Florida–29 electoral votes
Ohio–18 electoral votes
Iowa–6 electoral votes
Colorado–9 electoral votes
Nevada–6 electoral votes

The total electoral votes in play are 100, while Obama leads with 247 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney has 191 electoral votes from 23 states. Remember that the winner of the election must have 270 electoral votes.

So, with the updated realities that even Romney’s advertising campaign reflects, Obama wins If

he wins Florida (29 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Virginia (31 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and North Carolina (33 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Iowa or Nevada (24 electoral votes)
he wins Ohio and Colorado (27 electoral votes)
he wins New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Colorado (24 electoral votes)
he wins North Carolina and Iowa and Nevada (27 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Iowa and Nevada (25 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia and Colorado and New Hampshire (26 electoral votes)
he wins Virginia, Colorado, and either Iowa or Nevada (28 electoral votes)

So these are ELEVEN scenarios where Barack Obama has the advantage–needing only between one and four states of the eight “swing” states to win the Presidency in the Electoral College!

The unemployment rate is lower than the national average in New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio and Iowa, while higher in North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

So if one were to assume that the four states that have the lower unemployment rate than the national average go to Obama, he wins 41 electoral votes, for a grand total of 288 electoral votes.

Of course, there are five states, that are considered “red” or Republican states, that actually are in play, although expected to go to Romney. These are Indiana (11 electoral votes), which went to Obama in 2008; Missouri (10 electoral votes), which was won by John McCain in 2008 by only about 4,000 votes; Montana (3 electoral votes), which is becoming more Democratic; Arizona (11 electoral votes), which is moving toward Democratic over time with the growing Hispanic vote, and the controversial immigration law under Governor Jan Brewer; and Georgia (16 electoral votes), which is gaining a large Hispanic population, which means it will likely trend Democratic over the next few election cycles. Were all of these to go Democratic in a close vote situation, Obama could, theoretically, win 51 more electoral votes!

So, IF Obama were to win all of the eight “swing states” now in play, based on Romney’s decision as to what states to spend money on advertising, he would go from what seems clearly 247 electoral votes to 347 electoral votes–meaning he would have won all of the states he won in 2008, except for Indiana!

This is 18 electoral votes fewer than in 2008, when Obama won 365 electoral votes–due to the theoretical loss of Indiana (11 electoral votes), plus the fact that the states he won lost a total of 7 electoral votes due to reapportionment of seats in Congress, based on the 2010 Census.

But IF Obama were to win the “red” states that could be in play, listed above, a total of five states with 51 electoral votes, his highest theoretical total of electoral votes would reach 398 electoral votes, meaning Romney would win only 140 electoral votes, with Obama winning 32 states and the District of Columbia, and Romney winning 18 states!

The ultimate point of this discussion is to make it clear that the odds of Obama being re-elected are very high, despite the supposedly tight popular vote on a national level, which really proves nothing, as the polls on popular vote in the eight “swing” states demonstrate that Obama is ahead in all of them, except in North Carolina and Colorado, so to bet against Obama would be a losing bet, best thought about before being placed, as the odds of losing large amounts of money is extremely a likely occurrence!

Missouri Senate Race Could Lead To Obama Victory In “Bellwether” State

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Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri has been considered the most vulnerable incumbent in this year’s Senate races, but the flap and controversy over the remarks of Republican nominee Todd Akin six days ago has led to McCaskill, who was trailing Akin, to take a nine point lead in the latest polling.

IF McCaskill can continue to keep a lead over Akin, and nine points is a massive edge at this point, 73 days out, then President Obama has the prospect of carrying Missouri, which he lost to John McCain by about 4,000 votes in 2008.

Remember again that Missouri has been a “bellwether” state since the beginning of the 20th century, with only 1956 and 2008 having the Presidential winner lose Missouri, so it would be very welcome to Obama to win the 10 electoral votes of the “Show Me” state in November, and improve his chances of winning the Electoral College, which now are excellent, even without Missouri!

Two Weeks In: Is Paul Ryan A Positive For Mitt Romney?

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Tomorrow morning, it will have been two weeks since Paul Ryan was selected as the GOP Vice Presidential nominee.

The question is whether or not it has been a positive for Mitt Romney and the Republican Party.

The answer is both yes and no, but with the no side more obvious!

In a positive way, Paul Ryan has come across as a photogenic candidate, a man who is intelligent, bright, and an outstanding speaker at political events, and in the latter area, far outdistancing Mitt Romney, his running mate.

But on the negative side, the political focus has been on issues that harm him and the Republican Party, going into their convention in Tampa next Monday to Thursday.

The first week was dominated by his proposal to make Medicare a voucher program for future Medicare recipients, and while many observers give Ryan credit for his courage in pushing the idea in his Ryan budget, it is clearly a negative on the campaign trail, scaring many seniors who, theoretically, will not be affected by the plan, since it only affects those under 55. It also antagonizes many who are a bit younger than 55, and do not appreciate that what they are paying for in payroll taxes may lead to a system far less supportive of them when they are seniors, than their older brothers and sisters or parents are entitled to.

The fact that Paul Ryan supported every spending program of the Bush Administration, and wishes to avoid any spending cuts for defense, although he originally supported such cuts, also hurts.

As bad as the Medicare and spending issues have been, the abortion, rape and Todd Akin controversy this past week has done a tremendous amount of damage among a majority of women, particularly since Ryan had the same view on the subject as Akin, while the GOP was throwing Akin “under the bus”, so to speak. And since Akin refused to leave the Missouri Senate race, he is an albatross around Ryan’s and Romney’s neck for the remainder of the campaign.

So in antagonizing senior citizens, and those near senior citizen status, in the not so distant future, and women who have a sense of dignity and pride about the control of their own bodies, Paul Ryan has been much more a negative factor than a positive one.

And the ultimate irony is that he has provided, basically, no “bump” for Mitt Romney, far less than Sarah Palin did in the beginning for John McCain four years ago!

Wing Nuts Of 2010, And Now Of 2012–Lost Republican Opportunities In The Senate Then, And Possibly, Now!

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The Republican Party is infamous for running wing nuts for the Senate, and as a result, lost the chance for control of the US Senate in 2010.

They ran such characters as Christine O’Donnell in Delaware; Ken Buck in Colorado; Sharron Angle in Nevada; and Joe Miller in Alaska.

The first three were so whacky that the Democrats held on to the seats, and kept control of the Senate, with Harry Reid of Nevada remaining Senate Majority Leader. Lisa Murkowski won a miraculous victory in Alaska over Tea Party favored Joe Miller, keeping that seat sane and sensible, while Republican.

At the same time, Rand Paul and Mike Lee won in Kentucky and Utah, respectively, and Marco Rubio was also backed by the Tea Party, and now Paul and Rubio are likely leaders of the party in the near future, no matter how right wing they are!

Now we have in 2012 the following: Ted Cruz in Texas, backed by the Tea Party and likely to win a Senate seat; Debbie Fischer in Nebraska, who faces former Democratic Senator and Presidential seeker Bob Kerrey, who faces a tough battle; Richard Murdock, who defeated respectable conservative Richard Lugar in Indiana; and now, Todd Akin, challenging Senator Claire McCaskell in Missouri.

With the likelihood of Cruz, Fischer, and Murdock victories for the Tea Party and the right wing of the social conservatives, the only thing that may stop GOP control of the US Senate is the Todd Akin controversy, but in theory, Akin could win that race too, and with only three or four seats gain needed to win control of the Senate for the Republicans, the future makeup of the Senate is disturbing!

It should be pointed out that the Texas and Indiana seats coming up for election are already GOP seats, so only Nebraska and maybe Missouri would be gains for the Tea Party element as things stand now! But going from Kay Bailey Hutchison and Richard Lugar to Ted Cruz and Richard Murdock is a major step backward toward further deadlock, confrontation, and paralysis in a Senate already with a terrible reputation

Missouri, Bellwether State, MAY Decide Senate Balance And Presidential Race In 2012

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Missouri, the “Show Me” state, is also the ultimate bellwether of all states in the past century.

Since 1904, the state has ALWAYS gone to the winner of the Presidency EXCEPT twice. In 1956, it voted for Adlai Stevenson over Dwight D. Eisenhower by about 4,000 votes, and the same vote margin occurred in 2008, with John McCain winning over Barack Obama.

Beyond the history of Missouri, the blunder of Todd Akin, the Tea Party and Republican nominee for the Senate talking about “legitimate rape”, has outraged not only his opponent, Senator Claire McCaskill and women across America, but also the Republican Establishment, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and Senator John Cornyn, head of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, as well as Karl Rove, head of the American Crossroads SuperPAC that is raising hundred of billions of dollars for the Republican Congressional and Presidential campaign.

However, Mitt Romney has not shown the same willingness to demand that Akin withdraw from the Senate race, and that may be because his running mate, Paul Ryan, cosponsored legislation to deny abortion to rape victims, by supporting “personhood” language that would make fetuses defined as “persons’ before birth.

Additionally, social conservatives are backing Akin, demonstrating the split in the GOP between them and the Establishment Republicans who see electoral disaster ahead.

As a result, the Akin controversy could do the following in November:

Throw the state and its ten electoral votes to Barack Obama, possibly replacing Wisconsin’s ten electoral votes, with the assumption that Paul Ryan might be able to carry his home state for the Republican ticket. It would make the path to victory for Barack Obama a lot easier.

Help Claire McCaskill to retain her Senate seat, and in so doing, improve the chances of the Senate staying in control of the Democrats.

Have an effect nationally on the percentage of the women’s vote that would go Democratic in Congressional districts, possibly affecting the balance of seats in the House of Representatives, and assisting the opportunity of the Democrats to regain control of the chamber.

So this mess could be the decisive turning point of the 2012 election cycle, even If Akin ultimately gets out of the Missouri Senate race. The damage may have been done already, and no chance to reverse the damage!

Republicans In Trouble:Todd Akin and Kevin Yoder— How It Could Hurt Mitt Romney And Paul Ryan!

Ronald 2 Comments

The Republican Party and the Romney-Ryan campaign are reeling from two controversies that could affect not only the party fortunes in November, but also their Presidential campaign.

Republican Senate nominee and Tea Party favorite, Congressman Todd Akin, who is opposed by Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri, declared yesterday that there was such a thing as “legitimate rape”, but that women should still bring the pregnancy through to birth, causing an uproar, which has led some to demand that the Congressman resign as the Republican Senate nominee.

At the same time, it was revealed by Politico that a group of Republican Congressmen, while in Israel on a “fact finding tour’, got drunk at the Sea of Galilee, and jumped in the water partially clothed, including aides of Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarthy, who are part of the GOP leadership in the House of Representatives. But Kansas Congressman Kevin Yoder, a freshman member, fully stripped and jumped in, and now there arr calls for him to resign, in what has been seen as a major scandal by many! Yoder also has had an incident with a police officer, who stopped him for speeding, and Yoder refused a breathalyzer test, and paid a fine.

It is not that Democratic Congressman or Senators, or other Democratic officeholders, are incapable of similar incidents, but that the Republican Party professes a “holier than thou” attitude on moral issues, and then becomes involved in such controversies.

It will be interesting to see how the extreme right view of abortion, that under no circumstances should abortion be legal in any situation, will cause a controversy for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, now that they have declared that rape is an exception where abortion should be allowed, in reaction to the Akin controversy. It also contradicts Ryan’s public stand in his 14 years in the House of Representatives! So we shall see how this all works itself out!

Barack Obama At Joplin, Missouri High School Graduation: Salute To A Courageous City!

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President Obama gave the commencement address this evening at Joplin, Missouri High School, held at the Missouri Southern State University campus, one year minus one day after the disastrous tornado that hit that Southwest Missouri city of 50,000 on May 22, 2011, a short time after graduation at the high school of the Class of 2011.

Thousands of homes and hundreds of businesses were destroyed, and 161 citizens lost their lives in the worst tornado to hit the nation since 1950.

Obama came to honor the city for its heroic recovery, and to emphasize that when people work together, and overcome their differences for the betterment of the entire community, that no obstacle stands in the way of progress.

Obama honored individuals who overcame adversity, added some humor to his speech, and showed the city what he is best known for, his empathy and sincere concern for the welfare of those less fortunate.

This trait in Barack Obama will be the magical factor, along with his likability, that will re-elect him to a second term in the White House, and it is possible that in a state, Missouri, which John McCain won by a few thousand votes in 2008, that the President might just carry the state this time. It certainly is in play, and don’t count Obama out!

The Anti Obama States Ranked By Popular Vote In 2008 Presidential Election

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With the Presidential Election of 2012 just six months away, and with the increasing polarization of the nation shown by the Indiana Senatorial nomination results and West Virginia negative vote in the Democratic primary against Barack Obama, it is instructive to examine the 2008 Presidential Election results.

22 states voted against Barack Obama and for John McCain in 2008, with Obama gaining 53 percent of the vote against 46 percent for McCain nationally, and winning 28 states and the District of Columbia. Obama had a popular vote lead of 9.5 million over McCain.

But in those 22 states that voted for McCain, the McCain majority was as follows in ranked order:

Oklahoma 65.65
Wyoming 64.78
Utah 62.58
Idaho 61.53
Alabama 60.32
Alaska 59.42
Arkansas 58.72
Louisiana 58.56
Kentucky 57.40
Tennessee 56.90
Kansas 56.61
Nebraska 56.53
Mississippi 56.18
West Virginia 55.71
Texas 55.45
S. Carolina 53.87
Arizona 53.64
North Dakota 53.25
South Dakota 53.16
Georgia 52.20
Montana 49.52
Missouri 49.43

So going by the standard that 55 percent is a landslide, that means all but seven of the 22 states were landslides, and allow for Missouri, Montana, Georgia and even Arizona as possible turnovers, with growing Hispanic and Latino populations, and the relatively close vote, particularly in Missouri and Montana. South Carolina and the two Dakotas are not seen as possible turnovers, and with the two Dakotas so small in population in any case, no attention will be paid to those states by the Obama campaign.

Gay Republican Zach Wyatt Courageously “Comes Out” Against Hateful Missouri Legislation!

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The anti gay sentiment spreading through the Republican Party nationally finally convinced a Missouri Republican state legislator, Zach Wyatt, to condemn a bill being promoted in the Missouri state legislature that would ban any discussion in any classroom about gays and lesbians, including even the idea of fighting bullying.

This despicable legislation was courageously opposed by Wyatt, who also decided it was time to be honest to himself, and admit to the world that he was gay.

What a testimonial to courage and conviction, and it makes one wonder why so many gay Republicans, and there are plenty of them, do not speak out and fight against discrimination!

It is well known that there are many gay people who work for state legislatures and for members of Congress, and the question is how they can remain silent and only think about advancement of their careers!

It is also amazing that politicians themselves have no problem, in most situations, to the hiring of gay people, and yet they use gays and lesbians as an excuse to promote an anti gay agenda!

What is it about these political leaders and their staff members, that they exploit an issue and overlook discrimination and hate, simply to advance their own careers?

At least for now, let everyone applaud Zach Wyatt of Missouri for doing the right thing, and hopefully, helping young people tormented by guilt over their sexual orientation!

The Seven “Swing States” And Four “Red” States Which Will Decide The Presidential Election Of 2012

Ronald 2 Comments

Many ill informed people might think that the Presidential Election of 2012 is nearly even, based on some public opinion polls that show the popular vote close or tied, particularly the case with Fox News Polls, which tend to distort reality, but are believed by those who see that so called “news channel”, and the “poison and hate” it disposes, as being absolute Gospel!

But in reality, the election is NOT close at this point, with the decision based on seven “swing” states, all of which Barack Obama won last time, and all seven in which he has a clear lead at this point.

Of course, no one can live on polls at any moment of time, and it will be essential for Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and others who speak for the Administration to get out there and be actively campaigning and spreading the word over the next six months, but the fact that Mitt Romney has major problems with Independents, women, Hispanics and Latinos, Young people, and Evangelical Christians, make it clear that he has a massive set of challenges to overcome Barack Obama, and this is not the time to put betting money on the former Massachusetts Governor.

The seven states that will be most paid attention to, and visited by both campaigns over the next six months are Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

Additionally, four “red” states have a shot at switching to Obama, with those states in order of likelihood to switch including Missouri, Arizona, Montana and Georgia.

So instead of listening to propaganda, realize that it is these seven “swing” states and four “red” states that are the crux of the election!