Michael Dukakis

Barack Obama Advice From Yogi Berra: “It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over”!

Ronald 1 Comment

There will be the tendency for Barack Obama supporters to feel good after Super Tuesday, and feel that Barack Obama has a second term in the White House in the bag.

That would be the worst assumption possible!

On paper, yes, things are looking good as the GOP race for the Presidential nomination continues, and Mitt Romney looks in trouble, and Rick Santorum, who most logical people cannot see having any chance to win the nomination or election, continues to do well, particularly in the heartland of the nation.

Eight months to go until the election, and the world can turn upside down and inside out, in less than that amount of time.

We could have a major war in the Middle East against Iran, or another economic downturn, which could be triggered by that war with Iran.

Unforeseen circumstances we cannot imagine could occur, and the tides could turn.

Remember that Thomas E. Dewey was ahead of Harry Truman in 1948; Richard Nixon ahead of John F. Kennedy in 1960; Jimmy Carter ahead of Ronald Reagan in 1980; Michael Dukakis ahead of George H. W. Bush in 1988; George H. W. Bush ahead of Bill Clinton in 1992; and Al Gore ahead of George W. Bush in 2000 to the end, but not considering the electoral vote issue that would help Bush in the end.

There is plenty of work ahead for the Obama team, and they cannot afford to be cocky.

They need to remember the admonition of Yankee great, catcher Yogi Berra, who is famous for his line about baseball games: “It ain’t over till it’s over”!

No more true statement can be expressed regarding politics, as well as sports!

Confessions Of Dirty Deeds By Those On The Right Politically, But Cowardice By Many Republican Leaders!

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In the midst of obscene racism and misogyny and bashing of labor and gays by right wing extremists in the media and the Republican Party, every now and then, we get some who feel guilt and confess to their horrific work and ask to be forgiven.

Examples include Lee Atwater, who mastered the concept of the political smear for the campaign of George H. W. Bush in 1988 against Michael Dukakis, and later confessed and asked for forgiveness on his death bed, dying from cancer.

Another such case was David Brock who smeared Anita Hill in the Clarence Thomas controversy in 1991, and did other dirty deeds for right wing hate mongers including smearing Bill Clinton, but later confessed and works to expose Fox News Channel and others who distort and smear, through his leadership of Media Matters For America.

And a third is Ken Mehlman, former chairman of the George W. Bush re-election committee in 2004, who helped to promote an anti gay agenda that year, and yet is himself gay, and has now apologized for what he did eight years ago.

This kind of conservative dirty tactics, as practiced by Atwater, Brock, and Mehlman still is very widespread, so we find Republican leaders unwilling to condemn Rush Limbaugh, for his description of a college student, who testified for the right of women to have contraceptive coverage on health care plans sponsored by employers, as being a slut and prostitute, who should produce sex tapes for Rush and others to watch! Speaker of the House John Boehner, and Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have no ethics that allows them to openly condemn such outrages by Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, and other propagandists.

At the same time, there are conservative commentators who are decent and principled enough to condemn these kinds of statements and actions, including David Frum, Kathleen Parker, and Chris Buckley.

What a disgrace, that there is no standard of decency past or present on the right, in the mad rush to condemn, besmirch, and smear those they oppose, rather than criticize based on issues and viewpoints alone!

Historical Reality Of Iowa (Top Three) And New Hampshire (Top Two) Are The Only Choices For Presidential Nomination Of Either Party

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All of the candidates for the Republican Presidential nomination contend they will go on, even if they perform poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire.

But the historical reality is that unless one ends up in the top three in Iowa AND the top two in New Hampshire, there is no future for such a candidate.

The only exceptions are Bill Clinton in 1992 in Iowa in 4th place behind “favorite son” Tom Harkin, “Uncommitted”, and Paul Tsongas, but Harkin winning 76 percent of the vote; and John McCain, who in 2008 in Iowa ran behind Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, but lost to Thompson for third place only by a total of 424 votes. NEVER has anyone in either party ending up lower than second place in New Hampshire won the Presidential nomination of either political party!

Thus, only five Iowa third or fourth place finishers have ended up winning New Hampshire and being the nominee: Bill Clinton fourth in 1992, Michael Dukakis third in 1988, George McGovern third in 1972, John McCain fourth in 2008, and George H W Bush third in 1988.

So, assuming the polls are correct, Jon Huntsman (not really competing in Iowa), Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and probably Newt Gingrich, are “toast”, with Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and probably Rick Santorum (due to a late surge at the proper time), the real contenders in New Hampshire.

That would mean that Rick Santorum would become the candidate of the “social conservatives”, but the odds are that Mitt Romney will win New Hampshire and go on to become the GOP nominee for President in 2012 against President Obama!

The Supreme Court: Most Important Issue Of Presidential Campaign Of 2012

Ronald 2 Comments

It is amazing how little this Presidential campaign of 2012 has been connected to foreign policy, and to constitutional law, as if ONLY the economy matters.

As much as the Great Recession and its supposed aftermath has created a major crisis for Americans, to overemphasize it is a dangerous action, as the LONG RANGE problem is much more our relations with the world AND the future of our judiciary.

Regarding the judiciary, the thought that a Republican President would select MORE conservatives to a Court already top heavy with conservatives is absolutely terrifying on issues such as the power and influence of corporations, the rights of women, the rights of gays, the role of religion in government, and the struggle to preserve civil rights and civil liberties.

For instance, if Michael Dukakis had been elected in 1988 instead of George H. W. Bush, we would not have had Clarence Thomas on the Supreme Court.

If John Kerry had been elected President in 2004, instead of George W. Bush, we would not have had John Roberts and Samuel Alito on the Supreme Court.

Going further back, if Walter Mondale had defeated Ronald Reagan in 1984, we would not have had Antonin Scalia and Anthony Kennedy on the Supreme Court, and Justice William Rehnquist would not have become Chief Justice.

So the election of the President has LONG TERM consequences in judicial and constitutional interpretation, just as much as foreign policy is not only short term, but long range affecting.

When one realizes that Ruth Bader Ginsberg is 78, and Justices Antonin Scalia and Anthony Kennedy are 75, it seems realistic to believe that all three COULD be out of office in the next term of office.

So the Court could become more conservative if a Republican is elected to the Presidency, and more moderate if Barack Obama is elected to a second term in the White House.

Therefore, every voter MUST realize that the Presidential election has consequences, not only in foreign policy long term, but also in the future of our legal system and our constitutional rights.

The Flaws Of A Mitt Romney Presidential Candidacy

Ronald 1 Comment

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has many virtues, many positives, that should make him a model candidate for the White House, including:

1. Strong business background with Bain Capital and as head of the Salt Lake City Olympics Committee for 2002.
2. Promoted a health care plan in Massachusetts which is seen as a major success by many.
3. Bright, intelligent, photogenic candidate, with great family image, including his wife and five sons.
4. Knowledgeable about economic matters, and seen as Presidential caliber in many people’s minds.
5. Has presented good body language in debates and has greater potential to appeal to moderates, Independents, and conservative Democrats.

Despite all of the above, there are a long list of flaws that will make it difficult for Romney to win the GOP nomination for President, and if he does, to win the election over President Barack Obama. Among them are :

1. Romney comes across as a chameleon, a person who is constantly over the years changing his views on many issues, seen as originally a moderate and trying to paint himself as a conservative–therefore perceived as a phony candidate, and a “flip flopper”!
2. Romney was not well liked personally by his opponents in the 2008 Presidential race, particularly John McCain and Mike Huckabee, and is not even now well liked by the Bush clan and other Establishment Republicans.
3. Romney is not well regarded by evangelical Christians, a large group in primaries and caucuses, because of his Mormon faith, and one wonders could he win the “Bible Belt” South and Great Plains, areas usually Republican. but seeing Mormons as a cult, and not Christian!
4. All through the race for the GOP nomination, despite Romney showing the best ability in polls to compete with President Obama, there has been a constant search for an alternative, whether Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman, and now Chris Christie, not a sign of much feeling of emotion or passionate feelings of love for Romney.
5. Romney has shown insensitivity toward average people, by joking that he is unemployed; by talking about his Cadillacs collection; and by having a project to increase the size of his home to a mansion at a time when many are losing their own homes. Being the richest candidate in the race may give him a money edge, but he comes across as not understanding the problems of the middle class!
6. Despite his recent improved debate performances, Romney still has an image of being stiff, uncomfortable in his own skin, not totally relaxed, and not truly knowing how to deal with irate questioners at rallies, and with strong criticism. It makes one wonder would he be able to work well with Congress, whether his own party or the opposition, with so little political experience, only one term as Governor, and thinking his lack of a career in politics is a plus, which it really is not!
7. Romney’s ability to get people out to vote for him is doubtful, since he does not evoke strong feelings of support, and his poll numbers are still seen as very soft.
8. Romney’s attempt to steer clear of the Tea Party Movement makes one wonder if he could ever work well with fellow Republicans, who in many cases would be much further to the right politically than he would feel comfortable being himself, once in office.
9. Can a candidate from the Northeast, the stronghold of Barack Obama, have any opportunity to defeat him in any scenario that would add up to 270 electoral votes? That seems highly doubtful, as in many ways, Romney comes across as somewhat distant in the same way as two past Massachusetts Democrats who ran for President had trouble overcoming–Michael Dukakis in 1988 and John Kerry in 2004. Those two who lost to father and son Bush did not face a man with the charisma and emotional feelings of support that Barack Obama has had, and even in bad times, still has to some extent today!
10. By coming out hard line against immigration reform that allows illegal immigrants and their children a path to citizenship, Romney, like other Republicans, is losing the future, as Hispanic population and voter participation is growing in the Southwest and across the nation, and they are not likely to throw support to a candidate who demeans them and treats them as not deserving of respect and empathy for their futures in America!

There are probably other points that could be made, but it is clear that Mitt Romney has major flaws in so many ways that his candidacy for President is going to require a lot of luck and good fortune for him to end up in the Oval Office!

The Internal Struggle In The Republican Party: Minnesota Vs. Mormonism!

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With the announcement today that Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels will not run for the Republican Presidential nomination, the race seems more than ever to be one of FOUR who are likely to dominate vote getting in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, the early primary and caucus states next winter!

As one looks at the field, it seems clear that Newt Gingrich has self destructed in his first week as an official candidate. Rick Santorum seems unlikely to take off as a candidate, based on his own past crazy statements and walloping defeat for re-election in Pennsylvania in 2006. Herman Cain, Gary Johnson, and even Ron Paul, will make noise, but are unlikely to poll many actual votes.

So unless someone such as Chris Christie or Jeb Bush suddenly enters the race belatedly, there seem to be four major contenders for actual popular vote support in the primaries and the caucuses early on–Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman, and surprisingly, Michele Bachmann!

Bachmann is the favorite of the Tea Party people, more even than Ron Paul, who is seen as too old and flaky to be much of a vote getter. Even though she is outrageous in her statements and actions, Bachmann is likely to have a serious following in Iowa at the least, and could affect who of the other candidates benefits by her candidacy.

Bachmann, being from Minnesota, and therefore from the Midwest, poses a real challenge to former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who has been very careful to avoid outrageous statements and actions, and yet is competing for the Tea Party support and for the backing of Midwesterners. Iowa is a crucial state to both, so they are therefore at loggerheads as Bachmann could ruin Pawlenty’s chances. So expect the beginning soon of sustained attacks by each on the other, and increasingly so, as the campaign gets closer to the first vote test in Iowa, which has many evangelical Christians and Tea Party people, and will likely kill off either Bachmann or Pawlenty. So it is the battle of Minnesotan vs. Minnesotan!

But the 2012 race is also of Mormon vs. Mormon, as Jon Huntsman, former Governor of Utah, and seen as a moderate to some extent, is challenging Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts, who is also often seen as a moderate. Both are working very hard to wipe such ideas out of voters’ minds, as both oppose health care and support Medicare reform along the lines of the Paul Ryan Budget plan. Both are much more electible on paper, but being Mormons and having the old image of moderation could harm both, and certainly, one will be hurt by the success of the other.

What is likely is that the nomination will come down to Pawlenty vs. one of the two Mormon politicians, with Huntsman being newer and fresher and more interesting a candidate.

So the final struggle is likely to be Pawlenty vs. Huntsman, and it would seem likely that Pawlenty would have the edge, but only if he can overcome the influence of Bachmann with Tea Party faithful.

For the election, Huntsman or even Romney would be a better bet to win than Pawlenty, but the Tea Party influence is such that the bet would be that Pawlenty will be the sacrificial lamb, with the likelihood that Barack Obama would win a major victory, possibly on the level of George H. W. Bush over Michael Dukakis in 1988!

Religion And The American Presidency: No Religious Test!

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The United States has come a long way in the past fifty years, electing our first Catholic President, John F. Kennedy; witnessing our first Greek Orthodox Presidential nominee, Michael Dukakis; having a second Catholic nominee for President, John Kerry; nominating three other Catholics for Vice President–Edmund Muskie, Sargent Shriver, and Geraldine Ferraro; electing the first Greek Othodox Vice President, Spiro Agnew; electing the first Catholc Vice President, Joe Biden; and nominating the first Jewish Vice Presidential nominee, Joe Lieberman.

So therefore, it is time to see evangelical Christians stop declaring their opposition to the nomination and possible election of a Mormon President!

The Republican Party has the real opportunity to nominate a possibly winning candidate in 2012, and has the blessing of two excellent, well qualified nominees, arguably the two best candidates in the field.

One, Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts, was the runner up to John McCain in the 2008 Presidential nomination battle, and has proved to have great business experience, and strong leadership in his term as Governor of Massachusetts. He has already, in 2008, tried to overcome the religious issue with a speech making clear that, like John F. Kennedy stated about his religion, he would be a President who happened to be Mormon, not a Mormon President!

Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who is resigning as Ambassador to China, has excellent credentials in foreign policy and had a successful time as the Governor of the Mormon state, and showed open mindedness, and is seen by many observers as an exceptional person who could be a great candidate, and his Mormon faith should not be a factor in his running for President.

It is time for evangelicals and others to stop using religion as a reason to deny someone who is talented and capable the opportunity to run for President!

Sure, both Romney and Huntsman have their shortcomings, but in so many ways, they are the best candidates available, and religion should not be a consideration in the upcoming Presidential race!

Democratic Party Strategy Against The Republican Party: Finally Playing Hardball! :)

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The Democratic National Committee has finally decided to play “Hardball” against the opposition Republicans, something they have been lacking in for many years, going back to the time of Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, and John Kerry!

The Republicans have never had any problems with setting out to destroy the opposition, showing no ethics in their attacks on Democratic opponents at every level up to the Presidency! Now the DNC has decided to make clear to voters that there is a direct connection between the Tea Party Movement fringe and the GOP, so much so that at many rallies, the Republicans stand by as Tea Party extremists use racist, anti semitic language, and promote hate and division as they seek to repeal much of the Constitution and set back progress!

The message of the DNC will be that the GOP is linked to these anti government fanatics, and are outside the mainstream with candidates such as Rand Paul and Sharron Angle, along with other Tea Party favorites around the nation who have captured the local control of the Republican Party!

Tea Party extremists have called for the end of Medicare, repeal of the Obama Health Care legislation, privatizing of Social Security, extension of the Bush tax cuts to the wealthy, repealing the 17th Amendment and the 16th Amendment, modification of the 14th Amendment to take away birthright citizenship, abolition of the Department of Education and the Department of Energy, and the destruction of the Environmental Protection Agency! 🙁

It is hilarious that the chairman of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, Senator John Cornyn of Texas, is now asserting that the Democrats are promoting the “politics of fear”!

The Republican Party has long been the party of fear, a master of using scare tactics going back many years, including the years of Joseph McCarthy in the 1950s! Who are they to use that term against the Democrats, when the GOP is the master of distortion of the truth, lies, deception, and character assassination! 🙁

The Republicans have done everything in recent months to show the American people that they are willing to do and say anything, no matter how divisive and manipulative it is, to regain power and do the bidding of the corporations and the wealthy! 🙁

Under the circumstances, the Democrats have no choice but to respond in kind, as regrettable as that is! It would be preferable to have an honest, sincere debate of differences, but the playing field does not allow that! So, as the old saying goes, “what is good for the goose, is good for the gander!”

Will Mike Huckabee Have The Same Fate As Michael Dukakis?

Ronald 3 Comments

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is under fire for having released a convict who murdered four police officers in Washington State before being killed this morning by police pursuing him.

This release happened back in the year 2000 when Huckabee was still governor, and way before he sought the Presidency in 2008.

He is considered now one of the top three Republican possibilities for the Presidential nomination in 2012, at least in polls, along with Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. He has, however, earlier expressed the thought that he might not seek the Presidency, as he has done it already and really likes his talk show on Fox News Channel on Saturday evenings, along with his syndicated radio talk show.

It seems to me that he will be now off limits to conservatives for support in 2012, with them already having expressed doubts in 2008, based on his alleged high spending budgets in Arkansas. He has already received a storm of protest over the release of this convict, and if one goes by history, it will doom him for any future in politics.

This condemnation of a governor for pardoning a convict who later committed more crimes was certainly utilized by the first President Bush in his campaign against Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis in the 1988 Presidential campaign. The Massachusetts governor never recovered from the “Willie Horton” ads used against him.

It will be interesting to see how far and how long the attacks against Huckabee will go, but I think the odds are he is finished in American politics as a result of this unfortunate set of circumstances.

But one other question: will the Democrats go after Huckabee as the GOP went after Dukakis? I highly doubt it, but it will be very reflective of the differences between the two major political parties. More likely is the conservative purists in the GOP will make mince meat of Huckabee while the Democrats sit on the sidelines!